Sun Dec 23, 2012 9:56 am
Sun Dec 23, 2012 10:36 am
Sun Dec 23, 2012 11:24 am
carlccfc wrote:I really enjoy your reports Gary and this one is another example of the hard work you put in.
I agree with you that the amount of goals conceded away from home is a concern but hopefully recent away results are what we can expect in the second half of the season.
I believe we will win automatic promotion this season and with a little bit of Lady Luck along the way then maybe even go up as champions
Sun Dec 23, 2012 11:49 am
Sun Dec 23, 2012 11:56 am
Forever Blue wrote:Cheers Gary, Once again I have really enjoyed your update on City and what we need to do to go up.![]()
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MERRY XMAS Gary to you and your family.![]()
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Sun Dec 23, 2012 12:20 pm
Sun Dec 23, 2012 12:26 pm
enjoyed that. Nice one
Sun Dec 23, 2012 12:33 pm
castleblue wrote:After the completion of the game yesterday we currently stand top of the Championship table with 47pts out of the 69 available, this is our highest points at the halfway stage of the season since our return to the Championship and 7 more than our previous best set in season 2010/11. It is also 12 points higher than our average over the last 10 years and a clear indication of the fantastic start we have enjoyed this season.
So after the completion of 50% of our games what kind of season do you think we will have? What do you think of our start? And where do you think we will finish? Well here are my views a sort of half term report into season 2012 – 2013.
Always bearing in mind the extent of the changes to the squad that have taken place since the end of last season, in my opinion, we have had a fantastic first half of the season. Setting a new club record of 10 winning home games at the start has helped greatly but in truth there are a number of other statistics which, in my opinion, clearly demonstrate that this season we look capable of making our strongest push yet for promotion to the Premier League. This summer MM bought 10 new players into the club spending in the process the biggest amount of money, in a single transfer window, in the history of our club. Although this is only MM 2nd season as manager of our club there can be little doubt that this is now his team and no doubt he will be measured by how the team performs, and so far he has measured up very well.
To fully appreciate our current position it is worth looking at the official league statistics covering the areas which not only identify performance, but how effective the team is against key performance criteria. The following is a comparison of our start to the season against the average performance of the team since the club returned to the Championship. The comparison is I think very interesting;
Wins %: 65% - 42%
Draw %: 9% - 28%
Loss %: 26% - 29%
Goals Scored: 44 – 35
Average goals per game 1.91 – 1.53
Goals Conceded: 28-27
Average goals conceded per game: 1.22 – 1.18
Goal For Conversion Rate: 6.36 – 7.92
Goals Against Conversion Rate: 10.00 – 8.90
Failed To Score%: 4.34% - 22%
Clean Sheets: 34.78% - 30.43%
Goal Supremacy: +0.70 - +0.35
Points Won: 47 - 35
The clear difference in the number of games won and, in my opinion, is the biggest indication of not only the never give up attitude MM has brought to the club, but this season unlike others draws are being converted to wins, a big positive in any team chasing promotion.
There can be little doubt that this season we have greater creativity in the squad which has resulted in the team failing to score in only 4% of games, against an average of 22% over the last 9 seasons, not bad for a team who lost their number 1 forward (Maynard) after just three matches. In fact our total goals scored, 44, is the highest in the last 10 years. Not surprisingly we are also scoring on average 1.91 goals per game against an average of 1.54 per game since our return to the Championship, this stat is further supported by the fact we are taking fewer attempts at goal to score with a goal every 6.36 attempts. This is fewer than our average of 7.91 since our return to the Championship. Last season we needed 7.95 attempts for each goal scored and as a result we averaged only 1.61 goals per game.
Currently we have the best ranked attack in the Championship and this has, in my opinion, been the major contribution to us winning such a high % of games and is by far the biggest plus so far this season.
Sadly our defensive performance so far has not been as impressive, or to be more accurate, our defensive performance away from home is the biggest concern. Currently we have the best defensive home record in the championship with only 7 goals conceded, with 5 from free kicks, but away from home we have conceded 21 goals our worst start to a season since our return to the Championship. Our away record has resulted in us being only ranked the 19th best defensive unit in the Championship. Overall we have the 4th best defensive record in the Championship and if we can improve or at least maintain the performance it should not affect our promotion challenge.
Despite spending £10 this summer we lack options in the defensive area of the squad and that for me is our Achilles heel. It beggars belief in my opinion and despite having 34.78% clean sheets during the first 23 matches the 21 goals conceded away from home is a huge area of concern. This simply must be improved on in the 2nd half of the season and signing defensive cover in January is a MUST for me.
Overall the number of attempts taken by our opponents 10.00 is still higher than the average of 8.90, showing it is actually harder to score against us this season, but the goals conceded is affecting our goal difference and must be corrected and quickly.
However on a more positive note our home defensive record is good, with only 7 goals conceded in the first 11 games, 5 from set pieces, but this is our best performance since our return to the Championship so again is a massive positive.
With 47pts from our first 23 games we have made our best start to the season, our average over the last 10 years has been 35 points at this stage. This season we are trying to reach the playoffs for the 4th successive season, and the average points for a club who reached the playoffs over the last 10 years has been 35 points after 23 games. That being the case we already look a very good bet to at least make the playoffs at the end of the season. But what about automatic promotion?
Over the last 10 years the average number of points won, after 23 games, by clubs who achieved automatic promotion is 42 points. There have been exceptions where clubs like Sunderland and Reading actually won the league after only winning 34 and 36 points respectively after 23 games.
Over the last 10 years no club who have won 47 points at the halfway stage have failed to go on and win automatic promotion. That’s why I was so disappointed with the Peterborough performance but that’s life as a Bluebird fan. In fact teams who have 47 points at this stage are normally Champions, that’s how good our start has been.
In fact of the 18 teams to have won automatic promotion in the last 9 seasons 14 have won 47 or fewer points after 23 games. Of those 14 clubs only 3, Southampton, QPR and Birmingham had 47 points the rest had fewer.
Since our return to the Championship 7 clubs, Reading, Norwich x 2, West Brom x 3, Birmingham, Stoke City, Sunderland x 2 and Wigan have eventually won automatic promotion having won fewer than 47 points after 23 games, but we have been here before and failed so the question is will we do it this year? We are certainly in our best position but maybe we should ask ourselves, are there any risks to us achieving our dream of promotion to the Premier League.
Suffice to say if we continue with our current defensive performance it may stop any hope of promotion, either automatic or through the playoffs. As I have said previously there lies the challenge.
Most fans would agree we are short of defensive cover so in January that MUST be dealt with. Whatever our manager thinks about January transfers this year we just cannot sit back and do little or no business. History tells us that clubs who deal in January by signing players, for the here and now, invariably go on to win promotion.
With 47 points after 23 games we are bang on target for not just automatic promotion, but winning the league. In my opinion we have every chance of doing just that but we must deal with our biggest weakness, and therefore risk, the lack of defensive cover together with our inconsistent away form and it will be the biggest disappointment in the 48 years I have been supporting the club if we don’t deal with it. The board have already supported MM during the summer and there is still money available, use it Malkay and get us the cover and organisation away from home we need.
We have had an excellent start to the season and I say well done to MM, his backroom team and of course the players, we have experience, creativity, pace all combined with the never give up attitude of MM teams and in my opinion this means that 2012/13 WILL be the year we achieve the dream of PL Football.
In my opinion the only question is, Will James Fox be doing another remix?
We are Cardiff City and we’re going to the Premier League
Watch the Bluebirds Flying High
Over to you James
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Sun Dec 23, 2012 1:11 pm
Sun Dec 23, 2012 2:19 pm
ristey1927 wrote:Great report Gary, iv always enjoyed reading your posts and iv always wondered if I knew as your from caerphilly like myself, then it turns out your my manager in work![]()
Have a good Christmas mate, see you soon
Sun Dec 23, 2012 2:48 pm
Sun Dec 23, 2012 5:35 pm
Sun Dec 23, 2012 7:53 pm
Sun Dec 23, 2012 9:11 pm
Sun Dec 23, 2012 11:14 pm
castleblue wrote:After the completion of the game yesterday we currently stand top of the Championship table with 47pts out of the 69 available, this is our highest points at the halfway stage of the season since our return to the Championship and 7 more than our previous best set in season 2010/11. It is also 12 points higher than our average over the last 10 years and a clear indication of the fantastic start we have enjoyed this season.
So after the completion of 50% of our games what kind of season do you think we will have? What do you think of our start? And where do you think we will finish? Well here are my views a sort of half term report into season 2012 – 2013.
Always bearing in mind the extent of the changes to the squad that have taken place since the end of last season, in my opinion, we have had a fantastic first half of the season. Setting a new club record of 10 winning home games at the start has helped greatly but in truth there are a number of other statistics which, in my opinion, clearly demonstrate that this season we look capable of making our strongest push yet for promotion to the Premier League. This summer MM bought 10 new players into the club spending in the process the biggest amount of money, in a single transfer window, in the history of our club. Although this is only MM 2nd season as manager of our club there can be little doubt that this is now his team and no doubt he will be measured by how the team performs, and so far he has measured up very well.
To fully appreciate our current position it is worth looking at the official league statistics covering the areas which not only identify performance, but how effective the team is against key performance criteria. The following is a comparison of our start to the season against the average performance of the team since the club returned to the Championship. The comparison is I think very interesting;
Wins %: 65% - 42%
Draw %: 9% - 28%
Loss %: 26% - 29%
Goals Scored: 44 – 35
Average goals per game 1.91 – 1.53
Goals Conceded: 28-27
Average goals conceded per game: 1.22 – 1.18
Goal For Conversion Rate: 6.36 – 7.92
Goals Against Conversion Rate: 10.00 – 8.90
Failed To Score%: 4.34% - 22%
Clean Sheets: 34.78% - 30.43%
Goal Supremacy: +0.70 - +0.35
Points Won: 47 - 35
The clear difference in the number of games won and, in my opinion, is the biggest indication of not only the never give up attitude MM has brought to the club, but this season unlike others draws are being converted to wins, a big positive in any team chasing promotion.
There can be little doubt that this season we have greater creativity in the squad which has resulted in the team failing to score in only 4% of games, against an average of 22% over the last 9 seasons, not bad for a team who lost their number 1 forward (Maynard) after just three matches. In fact our total goals scored, 44, is the highest in the last 10 years. Not surprisingly we are also scoring on average 1.91 goals per game against an average of 1.54 per game since our return to the Championship, this stat is further supported by the fact we are taking fewer attempts at goal to score with a goal every 6.36 attempts. This is fewer than our average of 7.91 since our return to the Championship. Last season we needed 7.95 attempts for each goal scored and as a result we averaged only 1.61 goals per game.
Currently we have the best ranked attack in the Championship and this has, in my opinion, been the major contribution to us winning such a high % of games and is by far the biggest plus so far this season.
Sadly our defensive performance so far has not been as impressive, or to be more accurate, our defensive performance away from home is the biggest concern. Currently we have the best defensive home record in the championship with only 7 goals conceded, with 5 from free kicks, but away from home we have conceded 21 goals our worst start to a season since our return to the Championship. Our away record has resulted in us being only ranked the 19th best defensive unit in the Championship. Overall we have the 4th best defensive record in the Championship and if we can improve or at least maintain the performance it should not affect our promotion challenge.
Despite spending £10 this summer we lack options in the defensive area of the squad and that for me is our Achilles heel. It beggars belief in my opinion and despite having 34.78% clean sheets during the first 23 matches the 21 goals conceded away from home is a huge area of concern. This simply must be improved on in the 2nd half of the season and signing defensive cover in January is a MUST for me.
Overall the number of attempts taken by our opponents 10.00 is still higher than the average of 8.90, showing it is actually harder to score against us this season, but the goals conceded is affecting our goal difference and must be corrected and quickly.
However on a more positive note our home defensive record is good, with only 7 goals conceded in the first 11 games, 5 from set pieces, but this is our best performance since our return to the Championship so again is a massive positive.
With 47pts from our first 23 games we have made our best start to the season, our average over the last 10 years has been 35 points at this stage. This season we are trying to reach the playoffs for the 4th successive season, and the average points for a club who reached the playoffs over the last 10 years has been 35 points after 23 games. That being the case we already look a very good bet to at least make the playoffs at the end of the season. But what about automatic promotion?
Over the last 10 years the average number of points won, after 23 games, by clubs who achieved automatic promotion is 42 points. There have been exceptions where clubs like Sunderland and Reading actually won the league after only winning 34 and 36 points respectively after 23 games.
Over the last 10 years no club who have won 47 points at the halfway stage have failed to go on and win automatic promotion. That’s why I was so disappointed with the Peterborough performance but that’s life as a Bluebird fan. In fact teams who have 47 points at this stage are normally Champions, that’s how good our start has been.
In fact of the 18 teams to have won automatic promotion in the last 9 seasons 14 have won 47 or fewer points after 23 games. Of those 14 clubs only 3, Southampton, QPR and Birmingham had 47 points the rest had fewer.
Since our return to the Championship 7 clubs, Reading, Norwich x 2, West Brom x 3, Birmingham, Stoke City, Sunderland x 2 and Wigan have eventually won automatic promotion having won fewer than 47 points after 23 games, but we have been here before and failed so the question is will we do it this year? We are certainly in our best position but maybe we should ask ourselves, are there any risks to us achieving our dream of promotion to the Premier League.
Suffice to say if we continue with our current defensive performance it may stop any hope of promotion, either automatic or through the playoffs. As I have said previously there lies the challenge.
Most fans would agree we are short of defensive cover so in January that MUST be dealt with. Whatever our manager thinks about January transfers this year we just cannot sit back and do little or no business. History tells us that clubs who deal in January by signing players, for the here and now, invariably go on to win promotion.
With 47 points after 23 games we are bang on target for not just automatic promotion, but winning the league. In my opinion we have every chance of doing just that but we must deal with our biggest weakness, and therefore risk, the lack of defensive cover together with our inconsistent away form and it will be the biggest disappointment in the 48 years I have been supporting the club if we don’t deal with it. The board have already supported MM during the summer and there is still money available, use it Malkay and get us the cover and organisation away from home we need.
We have had an excellent start to the season and I say well done to MM, his backroom team and of course the players, we have experience, creativity, pace all combined with the never give up attitude of MM teams and in my opinion this means that 2012/13 WILL be the year we achieve the dream of PL Football.
In my opinion the only question is, Will James Fox be doing another remix?
We are Cardiff City and we’re going to the Premier League
Watch the Bluebirds Flying High
Over to you James
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Sun Dec 23, 2012 11:46 pm
Mon Dec 24, 2012 4:23 am
Mon Dec 24, 2012 11:00 pm
Mon Dec 24, 2012 11:14 pm
Mon Dec 24, 2012 11:56 pm
Tue Dec 25, 2012 12:46 am
Tue Dec 25, 2012 12:59 am
Tue Dec 25, 2012 10:26 pm