36 points to play for!

We currently sit 2 points away from the play off places, and 11 points off automatic. Over the last ten seasons automatic has required this many points 84,86,86,87,90,86,79,83,91 and 84 points giving an average of 85.6, round it up to 86 . Play offs have required 78,81,73,73,75,75,70,74,70 and 75 points giving an average of 74.4, round it down to 74 .

We have 53 points curently,this means of the 36 points remaining, based on the average of the last 10 seasons we need.......

33 for automatic
and 21 for the playoffs

I think this spells out clearly where we now sit.You can be as optimistic as you like but its common sense that its virtually impossible to make automatic based on the averages, which I think are as good an indication as any. Perhaps earlier strengthening would have made the difference, but we need to forget about that now and look ahead and kick on.

This club has already achieved a huge amount more than anybody could have anticipated this year. It is incredible that anybody could have even have even suspected that we might make the play offs, let alone automatic but we have every chance of making the play offs as things stand!!

We have got 15 points of breathing space, but it still hinges on how well the other teams play. I would expect with a couple of new players coming in, and the Manager we have got, we will make the play offs as there is nothing to suggest otherwise.We have had a bad spell but I think we will only get better as time goes on, which should be enough get us to Wembley!!!!

See you there. Again!!!!!

I was thinking 24.

8 wins from 13 - we have 4 home games this month, so would love to make the place a fortress again.

Thing is - if we take 24 points & get into the play off places then without doubt we will be one of the form teams going into it - so maybe we can do to someone what Blackpool & Reading did to us in recent years...i.e. beat us as the winning momentum had gathered pace with them in the run in!!!

It's looking a bit bleak & gloomy, but there is no way I'm ruling the idea out completely!

Interesting post. Still think we got great chance of playoffs. The key thing is the teams we have left to play.
Brum, boro, hull, Brighton, Leeds, all these teams in a similar position to ourselves. 6 pointers

There are 13 games left, hence 39 points to play for.
Does this mean automatic is still on?

I was using a fixtures card out of my wallet and the Hull game isn't on it! Just compared it with the fixtures on the official site, must have been rescheduled or its just a dodgy card . Cant see as it makes a huge difference though on the scale of it.I think we would need a miracle to make automatic from here.

Actually we have 39 points to play for but assuming we get nothing at Brighton we will have 12 games and 36 points to play for from which we will probably need 23 to get into the Play Offs.

Definitely agree that automatic has gone yesterdays result put paid to that but the Play Offs are still on 7 games at home all of which are winnable and 5 away where we should be able to get 7 points out of 15 on offer. So in summary if we can take 16 points out of 21 at home and 7 out of 15 away we should male the Play Offs this should be doable but we do need to freshen it up and use a few more of the squad players like Darcy, Ralls and Earnie or bring in at least another striker.

Even if we dont make it this season I for one am keeping the faith because i think we will rebuild again in the summer and make a big push for automatic next season

Actually we have 39 points to play for but assuming we get nothing at Brighton we will have 12 games and 36 points to play for from which we will probably need 23 to get into the Play Offs.

Definitely agree that automatic has gone yesterdays result put paid to that but the Play Offs are still on 7 games at home all of which are winnable and 5 away where we should be able to get 7 points out of 15 on offer. So in summary if we can take 16 points out of 21 at home and 7 out of 15 away we should male the Play Offs this should be doable but we do need to freshen it up and use a few more of the squad players like Darcy, Ralls and Earnie or bring in at least another striker.

Even if we dont make it this season I for one am keeping the faith because i think we will rebuild again in the summer and make a big push for automatic next season

That is roughly the size of it. Ours is a squad that looks tired but still has lots of potential, especially if recent rumours are true, watch this space.

Reading have won 13 of their last 16 league games, anything is possible in this division.

Its true we do actually have 39 points to play for, so if we look at these 3 realistic Automatic winning point score scenarios.

1.The lowest automatic score over the past ten seasons would mean we would have to get 26 points out of 39, 8 wins 2 draws and 3 losses would do it.

2.For the average of 33, 10 wins and 3 draws would do it.

3.To get the highest auto qualification score of 91 which is probably closest to the truth of what we need, we would need another 38 points,which means we would have to win every game!

So it is possible with the first two situations but the last is very unlikely.

And the play offs..............

4.The lowest score that would get you there over the last 10 years is 70 (this has happened twice), this would mean we would only have to find 17 points, so 5 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses would cover it.

5.The average is 74, so 21 points would be required, so 5 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses would do.

6.The highest score over ten seasons for play off qualification is 81, so 28 points would be needed, 8 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss would do it.

All doable but the highest score would require a little bit of consistency.

To sum up Automatic is very tight and doesent leave hardly any room for losses or draws but we could still just do it. To make the play offs we could play like total muppets and lose the next 6 games, and depending on other results it could still be possible to get to Wembley. In a nutshell to all of the pessimists out there, our season is still very much alive!

The other thing to bear in mind is how other teams are going - in previous seasons sometimes the top two and 4 Play-off spots have been decided before the last couple of games, which means that a "lower" points total can still get you promoted.

Looking at the number of sides still in with a shout, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the last 4 decided on the last day of the season, therefore a total points total towards the higher mark of 81....

As everyone has said it all depends on the other teams - our last 4 games could be against teams that have nothing to play for...

Dont forget who were playing last.