How good is our squad really? (quite a long post!)
Tue May 03, 2011 12:02 am
I seem to read it a lot that with our squad we should have comfortably secured automatic promotion, if not won the title. But honestly I don't believe this to be true, and certainly not the case that we have the best squad in the league.
It is important to remember (I think I am right in saying this) that we had the transfer embargo for much of the summer transfer window. Not only would this have meant we missed out on players because other clubs would have snapped them up, but i doubt it would have been attractive to prospective signings to think we may not have been able to pay their wages. I think there were very few days when we could sign players and we are fortunate that we were able to sign any.
It has been suggested that we should have been signing players like Scott Sinclair, or Taraabt, but these are players who are probably good enough to play in the premiership on merit and Swansea and QPR were both fortuante in signing them for such cheap prices. If any other championship club made a bid for them i doubt either would have changed where they moved to - Brendan Rogers (former Chelsea reserve coach) obviously has a good pre existing relationship with sinclair, and taraabt has found possibly the only manager who can work with him.
Our equivalent of using such a relationship was bellamy, who may have joined out of love for the club rather than the manager... I don't buy into it being unfair that we were able to sign bellamy - some managers have obviously found him difficult to manage, hence macini didn't want him in their 25 man squad, and the arrangement suited man city: We paid some of his wages and if we achieve promotion we have repay them more (?) and they didn't want him to join a side that would threaten their chances for top 4 and champions league...by loaning him to us they don't have a player on full salary kicking about in their reserves...
Goalkeepers and Defence
I don't think anyone can claim we have the best set of goalkeepers and defenders in the league - we have the 7th best defence in the league and have conceded 53 goals this season, compare that with 30 at QPR.
Heaton and Marshall are accomplished keepers at championship level, but I can think of better keepers, e.g. kenny, westwood. We have been unfortunate that both have had injuries, using up valuable loan spots in the squad and on matchday too.
Fullbacks - Mcnaughton is the only player i can think other top sides would want, I can't see naylor, quinn, blake or matthews challenging many sides for a first team place, we can now include JLS in that group too though i think it is unfair to criticise a player who has played so few games this season before he joined too heavily
CB - Hudson, Gyepes, Riggot and now Keinan - Riggot was a gamble, and one made almost certainly down to a lack of available (free) centre backs at the start of the season. Hudson on this season's form might be on the wishlist of some teams, and keinan to me looks like he would be too. But not Gyepes.
Overall not a large number of 'top quality' players.
Midfield
Again i'm sure the transfer embargo made it difficult, as was the refusal to make permanent signings. The signing of ramsey on a short term loan probably papered over the cracks a little bit, it did kick start our season again and our form in the previous games up to boro has been the best in the league, but without rambo we wouldn't have been close to thinking about automatic promotion. The signing of bellamy probably affected this department too, forcing us to change our shape with him on the left and whitts in the centre for alot of games, especially when whitts had been so effective on the left flank last season. Much like the signing of a 'superstar' in torres at chelsea has created difficulties in how to accommodate all of their attacking players.
But in the centre - oli, and possibly mcphail, are the only ones that would have a chance of making a top 6 squad. I think the fact that i can only name rae (and wildig) as other "true" centre mids in the squad highlights this weakness.
Flanks - Burke, Whitts, Koumas, Bellamy, Jet - obviously an abundance of talent here, which may have been to the detriment of the team shape with whitts having to play as a centre mid for much of the season
Forwards - chopra, bothroyd, parkin, jet, bellamy - chopra has the talent for most sides, but seemingly not the attitude or desire to be a professional member of a team/squad. I believe bothroyd would walk into most sides. Haven't seen too much of parkin, JET has been unlucky and would have had more game itme if the goalkeeper injuries hadnt meant the loan spots in the matchday squad were used up, and obviously bellamy has shown his class.
It is these attacking players that i think often convince people to think we should have walked away with the league. Yes they have huge talent between them, but bellamy arrived unfit, and chopra and bothroyd don't seem to be the easiest of players to manage judging by their footballing history.
Our attack, whilst not the best in the league (norwich 81 goals) hasn't faired too badly (75 to last season's 73) but obviously this isnt the 89/90 that WBA and newcastle achieved.
Of all these players, i think most clubs would want around 10, and that wouldn't even be to replace their first team, with most simply complementing the squad they already have.
I have a few "interesting" statistics to share, which i think highlights our problems:
In the 9 games we haven't scored a goal, we have lost 8 and drawn 1. Qpr haven't scored in 10, but have drawn 7 of those, and norwich have only failed to score in 5, and drew in 3 of those. This just shows that our defence has not been good enough.
Another statistic, this time showing points 'lost' i.e. games we have drawn when we were winning or lost when we were winning:
cardiff - 21 points (3 being losses from a winning postition), norwich 17 points (1 loss)
Points "gained", i.e. games we have won or drawn from a losing position:
cardiff - 11 points (winning 2), norwich 22 points (winning 5)
These to me demonstrate the lack of character and determination in the side, often it has been bellamy carrying the side. And this brings me to a lack of a 'spine' within a side. There are very few good teams who don't have a good keeper, good pair of cb's and good centre midfielders. If hudson hadn't been injured then i would dare to say that he and keinan could fit this criteria, again for heaton. But central midfield is a key weakness. In my mind we don't have a player like scott parker (wishful thinking!) or derry, someone to break up play and give a simple pass. Oli is the closest to that but seems quite keen to go forward. Whichever division we are in next season, i think it goes without saying that this is an area we must strengthen.
We have wasted too many winning opportunities, not been able to fight back after going behind, and if we haven't been able to score simply haven't been able to keep the opposition out.
Today we had some uncharacteristic defensive lapses from mcnaughton, perhaps hudson should have started, but it is a very big risk to name a different starting line up when it has been in such great form with a player returning from injury. If the manager had made that decision and we had still lost he would have been blamed for disrupting the balance of a team in form.
Hudson may have offered some leadership from the back, but after conceding in the first three minutes our confidence was damaged and this could only have contributed to the terrible defending for the other goals.
Dave Jones seems to get a lot of the blame, but his record is frankly excellent. To take the club from lower mid table to consistently challenging for promotion/playoffs is a very good achievement. How many other teams/managers have achieved that? Although I am defending him, and i do think he is a good manager, if we don't get promoted then i can't see him having a future at the club. I think his ability to manage would be undermined by constant speculation about the sack, i don't think he would have enough support of the fans (and roy hodgson at liverpool shows how damaging that can be) and i'm not sure how much appetite he would have to try yet again for promotion.
With the small squad we have (once loan players go back and out of contract players will most likely leave) it might be time to let a new manager come in and shape a squad to his preferences. If we have the same squad then changing the manager won't make a difference, the experience of rogers at reading and then swansea show this - he is clearly suited to a certain type of squad and player, and our squad is definitely a "dave jones" squad.
I recognise that this is a long post and i do apologise for that! But I think it is always worth keeping in perspective the relative standard of this squad compared with other top teams in the championship, the difficulties we had at the start of the season with the transfer embargo, and just how far this club has come in the last few years.
The season isn't over yet and beating burnley (a must) will ensure a good chance of automatic promotion still if qpr are docked points, (don't want to fall any more than the 9 points behind we already are) and if not bring on the playoffs, the other sides have all had poor runs of form and we have the "bonus" of "playoff final experience"!
It is important to remember (I think I am right in saying this) that we had the transfer embargo for much of the summer transfer window. Not only would this have meant we missed out on players because other clubs would have snapped them up, but i doubt it would have been attractive to prospective signings to think we may not have been able to pay their wages. I think there were very few days when we could sign players and we are fortunate that we were able to sign any.
It has been suggested that we should have been signing players like Scott Sinclair, or Taraabt, but these are players who are probably good enough to play in the premiership on merit and Swansea and QPR were both fortuante in signing them for such cheap prices. If any other championship club made a bid for them i doubt either would have changed where they moved to - Brendan Rogers (former Chelsea reserve coach) obviously has a good pre existing relationship with sinclair, and taraabt has found possibly the only manager who can work with him.
Our equivalent of using such a relationship was bellamy, who may have joined out of love for the club rather than the manager... I don't buy into it being unfair that we were able to sign bellamy - some managers have obviously found him difficult to manage, hence macini didn't want him in their 25 man squad, and the arrangement suited man city: We paid some of his wages and if we achieve promotion we have repay them more (?) and they didn't want him to join a side that would threaten their chances for top 4 and champions league...by loaning him to us they don't have a player on full salary kicking about in their reserves...
Goalkeepers and Defence
I don't think anyone can claim we have the best set of goalkeepers and defenders in the league - we have the 7th best defence in the league and have conceded 53 goals this season, compare that with 30 at QPR.
Heaton and Marshall are accomplished keepers at championship level, but I can think of better keepers, e.g. kenny, westwood. We have been unfortunate that both have had injuries, using up valuable loan spots in the squad and on matchday too.
Fullbacks - Mcnaughton is the only player i can think other top sides would want, I can't see naylor, quinn, blake or matthews challenging many sides for a first team place, we can now include JLS in that group too though i think it is unfair to criticise a player who has played so few games this season before he joined too heavily
CB - Hudson, Gyepes, Riggot and now Keinan - Riggot was a gamble, and one made almost certainly down to a lack of available (free) centre backs at the start of the season. Hudson on this season's form might be on the wishlist of some teams, and keinan to me looks like he would be too. But not Gyepes.
Overall not a large number of 'top quality' players.
Midfield
Again i'm sure the transfer embargo made it difficult, as was the refusal to make permanent signings. The signing of ramsey on a short term loan probably papered over the cracks a little bit, it did kick start our season again and our form in the previous games up to boro has been the best in the league, but without rambo we wouldn't have been close to thinking about automatic promotion. The signing of bellamy probably affected this department too, forcing us to change our shape with him on the left and whitts in the centre for alot of games, especially when whitts had been so effective on the left flank last season. Much like the signing of a 'superstar' in torres at chelsea has created difficulties in how to accommodate all of their attacking players.
But in the centre - oli, and possibly mcphail, are the only ones that would have a chance of making a top 6 squad. I think the fact that i can only name rae (and wildig) as other "true" centre mids in the squad highlights this weakness.
Flanks - Burke, Whitts, Koumas, Bellamy, Jet - obviously an abundance of talent here, which may have been to the detriment of the team shape with whitts having to play as a centre mid for much of the season
Forwards - chopra, bothroyd, parkin, jet, bellamy - chopra has the talent for most sides, but seemingly not the attitude or desire to be a professional member of a team/squad. I believe bothroyd would walk into most sides. Haven't seen too much of parkin, JET has been unlucky and would have had more game itme if the goalkeeper injuries hadnt meant the loan spots in the matchday squad were used up, and obviously bellamy has shown his class.
It is these attacking players that i think often convince people to think we should have walked away with the league. Yes they have huge talent between them, but bellamy arrived unfit, and chopra and bothroyd don't seem to be the easiest of players to manage judging by their footballing history.
Our attack, whilst not the best in the league (norwich 81 goals) hasn't faired too badly (75 to last season's 73) but obviously this isnt the 89/90 that WBA and newcastle achieved.
Of all these players, i think most clubs would want around 10, and that wouldn't even be to replace their first team, with most simply complementing the squad they already have.
I have a few "interesting" statistics to share, which i think highlights our problems:
In the 9 games we haven't scored a goal, we have lost 8 and drawn 1. Qpr haven't scored in 10, but have drawn 7 of those, and norwich have only failed to score in 5, and drew in 3 of those. This just shows that our defence has not been good enough.
Another statistic, this time showing points 'lost' i.e. games we have drawn when we were winning or lost when we were winning:
cardiff - 21 points (3 being losses from a winning postition), norwich 17 points (1 loss)
Points "gained", i.e. games we have won or drawn from a losing position:
cardiff - 11 points (winning 2), norwich 22 points (winning 5)
These to me demonstrate the lack of character and determination in the side, often it has been bellamy carrying the side. And this brings me to a lack of a 'spine' within a side. There are very few good teams who don't have a good keeper, good pair of cb's and good centre midfielders. If hudson hadn't been injured then i would dare to say that he and keinan could fit this criteria, again for heaton. But central midfield is a key weakness. In my mind we don't have a player like scott parker (wishful thinking!) or derry, someone to break up play and give a simple pass. Oli is the closest to that but seems quite keen to go forward. Whichever division we are in next season, i think it goes without saying that this is an area we must strengthen.
We have wasted too many winning opportunities, not been able to fight back after going behind, and if we haven't been able to score simply haven't been able to keep the opposition out.
Today we had some uncharacteristic defensive lapses from mcnaughton, perhaps hudson should have started, but it is a very big risk to name a different starting line up when it has been in such great form with a player returning from injury. If the manager had made that decision and we had still lost he would have been blamed for disrupting the balance of a team in form.
Hudson may have offered some leadership from the back, but after conceding in the first three minutes our confidence was damaged and this could only have contributed to the terrible defending for the other goals.
Dave Jones seems to get a lot of the blame, but his record is frankly excellent. To take the club from lower mid table to consistently challenging for promotion/playoffs is a very good achievement. How many other teams/managers have achieved that? Although I am defending him, and i do think he is a good manager, if we don't get promoted then i can't see him having a future at the club. I think his ability to manage would be undermined by constant speculation about the sack, i don't think he would have enough support of the fans (and roy hodgson at liverpool shows how damaging that can be) and i'm not sure how much appetite he would have to try yet again for promotion.
With the small squad we have (once loan players go back and out of contract players will most likely leave) it might be time to let a new manager come in and shape a squad to his preferences. If we have the same squad then changing the manager won't make a difference, the experience of rogers at reading and then swansea show this - he is clearly suited to a certain type of squad and player, and our squad is definitely a "dave jones" squad.
I recognise that this is a long post and i do apologise for that! But I think it is always worth keeping in perspective the relative standard of this squad compared with other top teams in the championship, the difficulties we had at the start of the season with the transfer embargo, and just how far this club has come in the last few years.
The season isn't over yet and beating burnley (a must) will ensure a good chance of automatic promotion still if qpr are docked points, (don't want to fall any more than the 9 points behind we already are) and if not bring on the playoffs, the other sides have all had poor runs of form and we have the "bonus" of "playoff final experience"!