O/T Updated - Andy Burnham wins by-election

ANDY BURNHAM WINS MAKERFIELD BY-ELECTION

WINS BY OVER 9,000 VOTES

54.8% of the vote - he walked it.




Updated


Big by-election on Thursday in the Makerfield constituency. Been called Makerfield or Breakerfield because what's at stake for one of the candidates.

The key players are Andy Burnham (Labour), Robert Kenyon (Reform) and Rebecca Shepherd (Restore). Realistically, it is between Burnham and Kenyon but Shepherd's vote could impact the Reform vote.

It has been billed as "one of the biggest by-elections of all time" as, if he wins, Burnham is widely expected to run to be leader of the Labour Party. Starmer has tried to stop that but I don't see that working.

I doubt Burnham would directly challenge Starmer but certain members of the cabinet will put the pressure on him to resign.

I have been up to the constituency several times and will be again this tomorrow. You can never be sure, but I think Burnham's personal popularity will get him the win. If it was any other candidate for Labour, Reform would have won easily.

I also believe Restore will have a big vote. They have some movement up there, with loads of activists.

Fun fact: There is actually no such place called Makerfield, it's just the name of the constituency.




So, who do you THINK will win? I understand I'm one of a very small minority on here who support Labour but would be interesting to see what others think.

Burnham is 1/5 on barring a major scandal coming to light he'll win handily

I think Burnham will win and go on to challenge Stalin for labour leadership , but im hoping restore win as i think the meltdown from both labour and reform would be pure cinema

Burnham is 1/5 on barring a major scandal coming to light he'll win handily

Stranger things have happened though so I'm still cautious, I think Reform were odds on to win the Senedd at one point.

When you next see Andeh do press for answers on:
his role in supressing investigations into the grooming gang scandal.
Or perhaps his involvement in the South Staffs hospital scandal.

When you next see Andeh do press for answers on:
his role in supressing investigations into the grooming gang scandal.
Or perhaps his involvement in the South Staffs hospital scandal.

Yet it was him who commissioned the investigations into it. And don't get me started on Lowe's "report" - talk about amateur hour.

Don't believe everything you read in the papers.

If he really handled it badly then he wouldn't have the popularity that he does.

I spend a lot of time in the north and people love him.

Burnham is 1/5 on barring a major scandal coming to light he'll win handily

Stranger things have happened though so I'm still cautious, I think Reform were odds on to win the Senedd at one point.

It's a day away he's at those odds for a reason. I get what your saying but I bet even the people who aren't keen on Burnham will jump at the chance to get rid of Starmer

I realise of course, that you're on the team.

Personally I think he's C you next Tuesday as will become clear in due course.

There was back in the day a lot of detailed reporting on South Staffs and with Andeh writing the rules for the Enquiry and bullshitting on his prior involvement he took no official blame. I mean what would you expect?!
The smell still lingers.

On the gangs, we know they exist and how their clan brotherhoods run the show. It's also fairly clear how corrupt the Local Authorities/politicians have been/are, not forgetting the Police and of course the CPS.

Lowe could have done better but Maggie Oliver has been consistent in her evidence and criticism of Burnham.

I see he's recently denied his wife's direct involvement in contracts for the Manc CAZ but she accidently works in PR advising the companies involved.

It's a big club!

Burnham is even further left than starmer if he wins tomorrow and wins a leadership contest against starmer that will set up an almighty left vs right clash in 2029 as he will get a lot of labour voters back who have been voting greens lately , question is can labour stop the rights momentum which is gathering pace judging by the recent may council elections

Or will Rupert lowes popularity keep rising at the rate it is at the moment which would see restore replace reform by 2029 as the major opposition to labour , the grooming gangs report that came out yesterday will almost certainly push people towards the right, it was a horrific read , I can't imagine what them poor girls went through

I realise of course, that you're on the team.

Personally I think he's C you next Tuesday as will become clear in due course.

There was back in the day a lot of detailed reporting on South Staffs and with Andeh writing the rules for the Enquiry and bullshitting on his prior involvement he took no official blame. I mean what would you expect?!
The smell still lingers.

On the gangs, we know they exist and how their clan brotherhoods run the show. It's also fairly clear how corrupt the Local Authorities/politicians have been/are, not forgetting the Police and of course the CPS.

Lowe could have done better but Maggie Oliver has been consistent in her evidence and criticism of Burnham.

I see he's recently denied his wife's direct involvement in contracts for the Manc CAZ but she accidently works in PR advising the companies involved.

It's a big club!

I believe in disagreeing agreeably, I hope we can do that.

The proof will be in the pudding if Andy becomes an MP and then PM. I've long thought becoming an MP was the toughest part of that cycle.

Burnham is even further left than starmer if he wins tomorrow and wins a leadership contest against starmer that will set up an almighty left vs right clash in 2029 as he will get a lot of labour voters back who have been voting greens lately , question is can labour stop the rights momentum which is gathering pace judging by the recent may council elections

Or will Rupert lowes popularity keep rising at the rate it is at the moment which would see restore replace reform by 2029 as the major opposition to labour , the grooming gangs report that came out yesterday will almost certainly push people towards the right, it was a horrific read , I can't imagine what them poor girls went through

You do make a good point about Restore. Like I said, I was taken aback by the size of their movement when I've been in the constituency.

They won't win this by election but I do see them growing in the next 2-3 years to be a big player in the next election.

Starmer is not left-wing, his party is. He is a petty bureaucrat with no leadership skills, wildly exposed in the glare of high office.

Burnham wins tomorrow, I always remember my nan was dead impressed that Callahan was their MP and PM during the late 70's. Thats matters, the PM's office can get shit done for you, whereas Reform will be another opposition backbencher.

Burnham is a politician, whereas Starmer is clueless and somehow doesn't realise that you need to take your MPs and country with you.

IMO this is the end of the Labour Party as a governing party, Burnham won't be able to make the changes the country wants, and I can see a worse than Tory defeat in three years. Farage is wrong; there won't be a honeymoon, so there will not be an election in 2027.

Starmer is not left-wing, his party is. He is a petty bureaucrat with no leadership skills, wildly exposed in the glare of high office.

Burnham wins tomorrow, I always remember my nan was dead impressed that Callahan was their MP and PM during the late 70's. Thats matters, the PM's office can get shit done for you, whereas Reform will be another opposition backbencher.

Burnham is a politician, whereas Starmer is clueless and somehow doesn't realise that you need to take your MPs and country with you.

IMO this is the end of the Labour Party as a governing party, Burnham won't be able to make the changes the country wants, and I can see a worse than Tory defeat in three years. Farage is wrong; there won't be a honeymoon, so there will not be an election in 2027.

I think if Burnham isn't successful for Labour then nobody will.

Polls suggest that a Burnham led Labour is only two points behind Reform in the polls. But it clearly depends on what he does when he gets there.

He is a big advocate of proportional representation which weirdly would probably favour Reform and Restore.

I am yet to be convinced that Farage wants to be PM. I've seen parallels between him and Corbyn. They like shouting from the sidelines about what should be done, but unsure they want to be the people doing things.

Starmer is not left-wing, his party is. He is a petty bureaucrat with no leadership skills, wildly exposed in the glare of high office.

Burnham wins tomorrow, I always remember my nan was dead impressed that Callahan was their MP and PM during the late 70's. Thats matters, the PM's office can get shit done for you, whereas Reform will be another opposition backbencher.

Burnham is a politician, whereas Starmer is clueless and somehow doesn't realise that you need to take your MPs and country with you.

IMO this is the end of the Labour Party as a governing party, Burnham won't be able to make the changes the country wants, and I can see a worse than Tory defeat in three years. Farage is wrong; there won't be a honeymoon, so there will not be an election in 2027.

I think if Burnham isn't successful for Labour then nobody will.

Polls suggest that a Burnham led Labour is only two points behind Reform in the polls. But it clearly depends on what he does when he gets there.

He is a big advocate of proportional representation which weirdly would probably favour Reform and Restore.

I am yet to be convinced that Farage wants to be PM. I've seen parallels between him and Corbyn. They like shouting from the sidelines about what should be done, but unsure they want to be the people doing things.

I can't see the Tories or Labour genuinely supporting PR. They both will be toast. You also get Tommy Robinson in parliament as well as the Just Stop Oil lunatics on the other side. A world of centre-right/left coalition seems sound to me, that's where i roam.

I'll be interested in Restores performance. I believe social media is inhabited with bots and fanatics and is bares next sweet FA to do with reality.
The problem for Farage would be his unruly party if he were ever PM, his best chance was with the tories.

Its a mess but even though i'd never vote Labour again ( i voted for Anna McMorrin )i am not sure who I would vote for, even though I am closer to reform top-level view its the detail that concerns me

It could go either way, but I think the momentum is with Burnham, not necessarily for the right reasons, but local sentiment rather than national concerns could make it an interesting night

Either way, we’re going to be left with a confirmed racist bigot, or a left-sided Labour leadership challenge

Neither is an inspiring option, IMHO

We have thrown everything at this, so have Reform.

I hope we are successful but it will be tight.

Well done to whoever wins.

Apparently the turn out is huge which doesn't bode well for labour as it means a lot of first time or non regular voters coming out

This means either restore have managed to appeal to the previously political homeless or people are so fed up of labour they've jumped on the reform band wagon , its going to be very close between reform and labour with restore picking up a bigger percentage than the predicted 7% that's my thoughts

Apparently the turn out is huge which doesn't bode well for labour as it means a lot of first time or non regular voters coming out

This means either restore have managed to appeal to the previously political homeless or people are so fed up of labour they've jumped on the reform band wagon , its going to be very close between reform and labour with restore picking up a bigger percentage than the predicted 7% that's my thoughts

I'm up here today. A big turnout not necessarily bad for Burnham, could get more votes out because he's not a standard Labour candidate.

We have knocked on every door at least eight times.

Votes are being counted in the crucial Makerfield by-election

Results are expected in the early hours of Friday morning - you can follow live coverage on this page

The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Josh Simons

Labour's Andy Burnham is trying to return to Westminster - if he wins, he's expected to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership

Tories briefing that they think Andy has won.

Apparently the turn out is huge which doesn't bode well for labour as it means a lot of first time or non regular voters coming out

This means either restore have managed to appeal to the previously political homeless or people are so fed up of labour they've jumped on the reform band wagon , its going to be very close between reform and labour with restore picking up a bigger percentage than the predicted 7% that's my thoughts

I'm up here today. A big turnout not necessarily bad for Burnham, could get more votes out because he's not a standard Labour candidate.

We have knocked on every door at least eight times.

Ill go

Labour 42%
Reform 39%
Restore 14%

5% split between the rest

Apparently the turn out is huge which doesn't bode well for labour as it means a lot of first time or non regular voters coming out

This means either restore have managed to appeal to the previously political homeless or people are so fed up of labour they've jumped on the reform band wagon , its going to be very close between reform and labour with restore picking up a bigger percentage than the predicted 7% that's my thoughts

I'm up here today. A big turnout not necessarily bad for Burnham, could get more votes out because he's not a standard Labour candidate.

We have knocked on every door at least eight times.

Ill go

Labour 42%
Reform 39%
Restore 14%

5% split between the rest

I think if it was anyone but Burnham for Labour then Reform would have stormed it. Only reason I'm up here is for Burnham, supported him in Manchester elections so was always going to be up here for this.

Turnout is just under 59%, don't have the exact figure but that's what I've just been told.

It's a very good turnout for a by election.

58.8% up from 54% at the general election , rumours farage has left already which probably tells you all that's needed

58.8% up from 54% at the general election , rumours farage has left already which probably tells you all that's needed

We are expecting Andy to win. But all eyes will be on the vote share, if Restore have handed it to us then there could be an almighty row between them.

Personally I hope there was no significant impact by the Restore vote. But being up here, the Restore movement has been huge.

58.8% up from 54% at the general election , rumours farage has left already which probably tells you all that's needed

We are expecting Andy to win. But all eyes will be on the vote share, if Restore have handed it to us then there could be an almighty row between them.

Personally I hope there was no significant impact by the Restore vote. But being up here, the Restore movement has been huge.

Reform have already lost both seats they were defending tonight to the Tories, I believe reforms race is run and Restore will pick up the baton heading towards 2029 for a showdown with labour and Andy Burnham

58.8% up from 54% at the general election , rumours farage has left already which probably tells you all that's needed

We are expecting Andy to win. But all eyes will be on the vote share, if Restore have handed it to us then there could be an almighty row between them.

Personally I hope there was no significant impact by the Restore vote. But being up here, the Restore movement has been huge.

Reform have already lost both seats they were defending tonight to the Tories, I believe reforms race is run and Restore will pick up the baton heading towards 2029 for a showdown with labour and Andy Burnham

Not my politics, but Reform were doing fine until they packed their party with ex Tories. Jenrick especially rubbed people up in the wrong way. So you're probably right about people going towards Restore. Crazy that the Tories aren't even in the conversation though, the most successful political party in history.

I think Andy will give Starmer the weekend to give up the leadership. If not, it'll be a contest. Starmer can beat Streeting in a contest but not Andy.

58.8% up from 54% at the general election , rumours farage has left already which probably tells you all that's needed

We are expecting Andy to win. But all eyes will be on the vote share, if Restore have handed it to us then there could be an almighty row between them.

Personally I hope there was no significant impact by the Restore vote. But being up here, the Restore movement has been huge.

Reform have already lost both seats they were defending tonight to the Tories, I believe reforms race is run and Restore will pick up the baton heading towards 2029 for a showdown with labour and Andy Burnham

Not my politics, but Reform were doing fine until they packed their party with ex Tories. Jenrick especially rubbed people up in the wrong way. So you're probably right about people going towards Restore. Crazy that the Tories aren't even in the conversation though, the most successful political party in history.

I think Andy will give Starmer the weekend to give up the leadership. If not, it'll be a contest. Starmer can beat Streeting in a contest but not Andy.

I saw earlier Andy has a list of 80 labour mp,s backing him and will give starmer the chance to resign if not the gloves are off

Whatever happens if your interested in politics the next few days should be interesting to say the least

BBC saying Burnham could get 54% of the vote. If that's true, it's a huge majority in the context.

BBC saying Burnham could get 54% of the vote. If that's true, it's a huge majority in the context.

That would mean the split the vote rhetoric reform were spewing all week meant nothing