' CARDIFF CITY' FC - ACTUAL VALUATION '

Lots of ways to value a club and this is a fair summary in layman's terms:
Tom Coleman

Don’t forget Vincent Tan did not inherit this debt, he’s made the debt.

Cardiff City's actual valuation and the huge sums Vincent Tan would need to write off if sold
A consortium led by Gareth Bale is keen on buying Cardiff City

As football finance expert Kieran Maguire explains, if Tan is to leave, he will likely have to accept he will be walking away with a considerable loss on his investment.

“£117m outstanding. It's highly unlikely he'll get that back in League One."

Just how much of those losses will be passed on to Tan's valuation of the club isn't entirely clear at this stage. Clearly the view is that an offer simply too good to refuse would be required if a new era is to be ushered in at Cardiff City Stadium.

However, the market value of the club is, Maguire explains, likely to be somewhat lower than what Tan might be hoping for.

"I know a League One club that was sold last year that went for around about two times its revenue. The revenue for Cardiff next season is probably going to be something like £15m in League One.

"If he sells it for £30m, I don't know what the situation is with the stadium, but that wouldn't be a bad price. He might be able to squeeze a little bit more if the stadium's thrown in. But the stadium loses money. Football stadiums are only open about 25 times a year. Then you've got the cost of maintenance, the cost of insurance, the day-to-day costs.

"I think Orient were sold for less than £20m and was without the stadium as that's owned by a third party. But they're a London club and that includes a London premium as far as the price is concerned.

"But I can see no logical reason for someone to pay £200m for a club in League One. Newcastle went for £300m with a 50,000 capacity stadium and in the Premier League. That was four years ago and I'm not denying there's been inflation since then. But even so. Wrexham are being quoted at $350m, but the value in Wrexham is not in the football club it's in the owners.

"If Cardiff are continuing to lose the money they have been losing, which I think works out at more than £200k a week in each of the last five seasons, then he's going to be losing another £200k a week for another year if he doesn't sell the club.

"So there's a case for saying 'get out and just cut your losses'. If he gets £30m-£35m that's actually not a bad deal in today's market."

The proposed deal is believed to have received backing from American investors, with members of the Storch family reportedly heavily involved.

Maguire believes the stadium, fanbase and transport connections all make Cardiff an attractive proposition to investors on paper, and while Bale is unlikely to be pumping in much of his own money, this interest falls in line with what's been an ongoing pattern within the EFL.

"There has been an idea in recent years of bringing in someone that's effectively going to be front of house in terms of the deal," Maguire continued. "We've seen that at Birmingham with Tom Brady, we've seen it at Wrexham with Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney, and we've seen it at Swansea with Luka Modric.

"There is a view that you will be able to attract other potential investors. You might also be in a stronger position to negotiate with sponsors as not only are you sponsoring Cardiff City Football Club. It's Gareth Bale's Cardiff City Football Club.

"The reason it's become popular is largely due to Wrexham. It's been a wildly popular story and has become hugely profitable. They're buying a club for around £2m that is now quoted as being around £250m. They've probably got first mover advantage there, and it's a difficult model to replicate.

You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

A good read but it's taking nothing but income as a valuation to get 30m? It's not worth 100m so somewhere Bale ect got to find Common ground with tan otherwise waisting their time ....
Have they actually asked what he wants or got a valuation of club ?

Wrexham are worth what? 200 million? lol they only have 12000 fans

Wrexham are worth what? 200 million? lol they only have 12000 fans

Yet they are above us in the EFL and have a waiting list for tickets, we have been on a downward spiral, heavily in debt and have falling attendances.

[quote="goats"]Wrexham are worth what? 200 million? lol they only have 12000 fans[/quote

Their income was 29m it hasn't gone to 100m just because promoted the method of
Valuation appears very flawed!

Wrexham are worth what? 200 million? lol they only have 12000 fans[/quote

Their income was 29m it hasn't gone to 100m just because promoted the method of
Valuation appears very flawed!

And more than 20 million of that income is from sponsorship and other rights generated by the love in from the USA. If that goes they are just another side lower league side. They are now a Hollywood product not a football club and if that goes out of fashion their income will plummet.

Article is total nonsense

Wrexham are worth what? 200 million? lol they only have 12000 fans[/quote

Their income was 29m it hasn't gone to 100m just because promoted the method of
Valuation appears very flawed!

And more than 20 million of that income is from sponsorship and other rights generated by the love in from the USA. If that goes they are just another side lower league side. They are now a Hollywood product not a football club and if that goes out of fashion their income will plummet.

It's not an if it goes, it's a when that goes.

They might be a lower league side but they're higher than us (for now).

The level of jealousy from a lot of people is staggering, they've been run well & the tv show has done more for Welsh tourism in the last 2 years than the Welsh tourist board has done in the last 20 years for zero cost to the country.

They're not a Hollywood product, the show is but Wrexham are not, no matter how much people want to whine about it & once the show goes they will be in a better place than they have been for about 30 years.

If only we had been run half as well over the last 10 years.

As for the actual valuation of either, it's all speculation until someone actually pays that amount & I agree with Wez.

In terms of Wrexham, Ryan Reynold has a history of making money and selling on. He is a marketing genius. His LinkedIn page states his occupation as Entrepreneur/Part-time actor.

The Wrexham brand is alive, whilst the boys, but especially Reynolds, are the leaders, but they are going to have to sell major shares of the club to get some of those wild valuations; they won't use any more of their money.

In terms of the city, if it's £30 ~ £40 million, then I think they'll be far more than an orderly queue forming around the stadium as we speak. Surely closer to £100million?

Reply:

You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

Thevstadium is an asset and has been valued at 85 million so its that plus what ever tan wants extra , if he's willing to write all his debt off and sell the stadium in with the deal then 100-120mill is a more realistic amount but there would still be dalmans unsecured debt to deal with .

Reply:

You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

Wrexham are worth what? 200 million? lol they only have 12000 fans

This is why we are a club not moving with the times.

Unfortunately in today's market, bums on seats is not the, be all and end all.

Wrexham Social media presence places them 29th amongst all club in the English Leagues, way above Cardiff.

It's a worldwide market nowadays and we are still a parochial club.

Thevstadium is an asset and has been valued at 85 million so its that plus what ever tan wants extra , if he's willing to write all his debt off and sell the stadium in with the deal then 100-120mill is a more realistic amount but there would still be dalmans unsecured debt to deal with .

The stadium is an asset on paper only. Sheffield Utd went for £100m with parachute payments, debt free and a playing squad worth 10X ours. The club isn’t worth more than £30-40m in L1, with the reduced revenue and no training ground. The stadium itself is more an expenditure than an income. Admittedly they probably don’t leverage its use as much as they could, but outside of Wales games, it only brings in the revenue from us. There are lots of overheads on top of it to keep it running and maintained and the land is fit only for football. Yeah it would likely cost £85m to rebuild, but its real value is negligible for a sale. That is generally on playing assets and revenue alone. Most of which is from the tv rights and significantly lower where we are.

He inherited a debt and a club that was losing money every month with season ticket money already in and spent for a number of years.

Granted he has made a lot of mistakes but let’s not pretend he took over a club thriving. He took over a club that was close to being wound up by the HMRC and it was not making enough money to cover its costs.

He inherited a debt and a club that was losing money every month with season ticket money already in and spent for a number of years.

Granted he has made a lot of mistakes but let’s not pretend he took over a club thriving. He took over a club that was close to being wound up by the HMRC and it was not making enough money to cover its costs.

Agreed, it was a club in poor health when Tan took over. But he’s certainly not helped that. Admittedly the debt is to him and not numerous shell companies and Government bodies, but we’re financially dead at the moment. We’re about £70m higher in debt v real assets and that’s not a good place to be. He’s ruined us with his poor decision making and eventually will make a significant loss as a result.

Wrexham are worth what? 200 million? lol they only have 12000 fans

This is why we are a club not moving with the times.

Unfortunately in today's market, bums on seats is not the, be all and end all.

Wrexham Social media presence places them 29th amongst all club in the English Leagues, way above Cardiff.

It's a worldwide market nowadays and we are still a parochial club.

Agree with this.

:shock:

He inherited a debt and a club that was losing money every month with season ticket money already in and spent for a number of years.

Granted he has made a lot of mistakes but let’s not pretend he took over a club thriving. He took over a club that was close to being wound up by the HMRC and it was not making enough money to cover its costs.

Agreed, it was a club in poor health when Tan took over. But he’s certainly not helped that. Admittedly the debt is to him and not numerous shell companies and Government bodies, but we’re financially dead at the moment. We’re about £70m higher in debt v real assets and that’s not a good place to be. He’s ruined us with his poor decision making and eventually will make a significant loss as a result.

He hasn’t helped at all.

He went big first time getting into the premier league and then the season after and we are still suffering because of that.

:shock:

He inherited a debt and a club that was losing money every month with season ticket money already in and spent for a number of years.

Granted he has made a lot of mistakes but let’s not pretend he took over a club thriving. He took over a club that was close to being wound up by the HMRC and it was not making enough money to cover its costs.

Agreed, it was a club in poor health when Tan took over. But he’s certainly not helped that. Admittedly the debt is to him and not numerous shell companies and Government bodies, but we’re financially dead at the moment. We’re about £70m higher in debt v real assets and that’s not a good place to be. He’s ruined us with his poor decision making and eventually will make a significant loss as a result.

He hasn’t helped at all.

He went big first time getting into the premier league and then the season after and we are still suffering because of that.

Agreed; but the biggest ‘issue’ for me, was the ‘Malky Affair’, as I firmly believe he would have kept us in the Preirr League and things might well have been different had he waited until the end of the season

However, Malky and his mate created their own downfalls, and the club (Warnock apart) have lurched from one costly crisis to another, which has to be down to Tan

He inherited a debt and a club that was losing money every month with season ticket money already in and spent for a number of years.

Granted he has made a lot of mistakes but let’s not pretend he took over a club thriving. He took over a club that was close to being wound up by the HMRC and it was not making enough money to cover its costs.

Neil and Tan continued to promise to make us debt free with in 5 years.

15 yrs later Our Clubs debt is nearly triple and we are in League 2 ( Division 3 )

Tan promised us he would never borrow of others and debt only to him, he’s borrowed £38 mill with interest charges .

Those are just three facts

And I would say 99% of fans want Tan gone

So from what reports suggest Tan is owed £68m so, to demonstrate how I think this could work, I have attached a table which according to Forbes is what EPL clubs were worth in May 2025

EPL Value of Clubs.jpg

As you will see clubs 13th or above are worth £500m ($700m) with the suggestion that those below will be worth more than £400m.

So my thinking is that, in any deal, if the new owners allowed VT 25% of shares = those shares would be worth £100m when we are back in the EPL

Plus:
(a) VT would also be saving close on £30m in spends this year (if he is still paying £2-3m per month)
(b) He could be offered £25-40m for the purchase
(c) He will recoup whatever the club is awarded in the Sala settlement

All this brings him very close to the £200m he wants.

This has to be a good deal - and would also allow him to walk away saying the club is debt free and with the club in the hands of good new owners.

You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

He inherited a debt and a club that was losing money every month with season ticket money already in and spent for a number of years.

Granted he has made a lot of mistakes but let’s not pretend he took over a club thriving. He took over a club that was close to being wound up by the HMRC and it was not making enough money to cover its costs.

Neil and Tan continued to promise to make us debt free with in 5 years.

15 yrs later Our Clubs debt is nearly triple and we are in League 2 ( Division 3 )

Tan promised us he would never borrow of others and debt only to him, he’s borrowed £38 mill with interest charges .

Those are just three facts

And I would say 99% of fans want Tan gone

I can’t believe there’s even 1% now who want him to stay Annis.

:shock:

He inherited a debt and a club that was losing money every month with season ticket money already in and spent for a number of years.

Granted he has made a lot of mistakes but let’s not pretend he took over a club thriving. He took over a club that was close to being wound up by the HMRC and it was not making enough money to cover its costs.

Agreed, it was a club in poor health when Tan took over. But he’s certainly not helped that. Admittedly the debt is to him and not numerous shell companies and Government bodies, but we’re financially dead at the moment. We’re about £70m higher in debt v real assets and that’s not a good place to be. He’s ruined us with his poor decision making and eventually will make a significant loss as a result.

Stadium is 85 million asset fully owned by Cardiff city holdings so people need to remember that in any sale that involves the club and stadium.

Paper asset. Nobody would buy it for £85m. If it is, give it to Vinny and agree a fixed rent for 50 years .. you wouldn’t get more than a few mil a season back as you can’t do anything with it outside of sports/leisure. Who else is going to use it? FAW 5 times a year?
It’s too big for any other side in a 50 miles radius.

Reading went for £30m with the stadium and Ground.

Paper asset. Nobody would buy it for £85m. If it is, give it to Vinny and agree a fixed rent for 50 years .. you wouldn’t get more than a few mil a season back as you can’t do anything with it outside of sports/leisure. Who else is going to use it? FAW 5 times a year?
It’s too big for any other side in a 50 miles radius.

Reading went for £30m with the stadium and Ground.

They were in administration tho weren't they amd full of debt also ?

Paper asset. Nobody would buy it for £85m. If it is, give it to Vinny and agree a fixed rent for 50 years .. you wouldn’t get more than a few mil a season back as you can’t do anything with it outside of sports/leisure. Who else is going to use it? FAW 5 times a year?
It’s too big for any other side in a 50 miles radius.

Reading went for £30m with the stadium and Ground.

Just looked reading are 83 million in debt , they paid 30 million for the new shares to take control so the debt is still there , bascally its 103 million, they arnt debt free .

Doesn’t ignore the point the stadium etc in a sale is negligible. Ipswich sold for similar in L1 .. Sheffield Utd went for £100m with all the parachute payments and 10X the squad value etc.

Tan has laden us with debt, we’re insolvent in practice .. we’d be similar to Reading if Tan ran out of money or started calling the debt in. Similar if he started adding the interest, like Dalman. He’s ruined us wasting money and now needs to suck it up. His terrible decision making means he’s currently lost £100m .. such a shame. We’d probably be worth £50m in the championship.. but he needs to spend to get us back there.

Doesn’t ignore the point the stadium etc in a sale is negligible. Ipswich sold for similar in L1 .. Sheffield Utd went for £100m with all the parachute payments and 10X the squad value etc.

Tan has laden us with debt, we’re insolvent in practice .. we’d be similar to Reading if Tan ran out of money or started calling the debt in. Similar if he started adding the interest, like Dalman. He’s ruined us wasting money and now needs to suck it up. His terrible decision making means he’s currently lost £100m .. such a shame. We’d probably be worth £50m in the championship.. but he needs to spend to get us back there.

Tan could sell for 30 million his shares then put a charge on the stadium or just keep the stadium and rent it to new owners but that in the past has backfired derby, Portsmouth, and Bournemouth where this happened .no way is Tan going to sell the club with the stadium and all assets for 30million as your suggesting and write off over bascally a 250 million he's already invested . The club free of Tan is going to cost north of 100 million

:shock:

He inherited a debt and a club that was losing money every month with season ticket money already in and spent for a number of years.

Granted he has made a lot of mistakes but let’s not pretend he took over a club thriving. He took over a club that was close to being wound up by the HMRC and it was not making enough money to cover its costs.

Agreed, it was a club in poor health when Tan took over. But he’s certainly not helped that. Admittedly the debt is to him and not numerous shell companies and Government bodies, but we’re financially dead at the moment. We’re about £70m higher in debt v real assets and that’s not a good place to be. He’s ruined us with his poor decision making and eventually will make a significant loss as a result.

Stadium is 85 million asset fully owned by Cardiff city holdings so people need to remember that in any sale that involves the club and stadium.

The stadium is practically worthless to anyone.
It as to be sporting venue so either city or the blues only potential users so what's point of someone buying stadium for what it's worth 50m or so how much will they charge city or blues to rent it? Not financially a viable asset ...even if buy it then sell it to new owners the value won't go above original price..... same with academy or training ground to many obstacles in way to make them saleable assets .. no club as to be sold as a complete entity so value will be set accordingly

:shock:

He inherited a debt and a club that was losing money every month with season ticket money already in and spent for a number of years.

Granted he has made a lot of mistakes but let’s not pretend he took over a club thriving. He took over a club that was close to being wound up by the HMRC and it was not making enough money to cover its costs.

Agreed, it was a club in poor health when Tan took over. But he’s certainly not helped that. Admittedly the debt is to him and not numerous shell companies and Government bodies, but we’re financially dead at the moment. We’re about £70m higher in debt v real assets and that’s not a good place to be. He’s ruined us with his poor decision making and eventually will make a significant loss as a result.

Stadium is 85 million asset fully owned by Cardiff city holdings so people need to remember that in any sale that involves the club and stadium.

The stadium is practically worthless to anyone.
It as to be sporting venue so either city or the blues only potential users so what's point of someone buying stadium for what it's worth 50m or so how much will they charge city or blues to rent it? Not financially a viable asset ...even if buy it then sell it to new owners the value won't go above original price..... same with academy or training ground to many obstacles in way to make them saleable assets .. no club as to be sold as a complete entity so value will be set accordingly

It's still an asset tho , its a money making asset its just not matchdays