MY RELEGATION ASSESSMENT : With nine games to go there

MY RELEGATION ASSESSMENT :


With nine games to go there is still 20% of the season remaining …..so there will still be many changes . However , the relegation picture has now taken shape .

First , I rule out Hull and Portsmouth - and I’ve been saying that even before each went on a good run .


That leaves 6 candidates for relegation : Stoke , Oxford , Cardiff , Derby , Luton and Plymouth .


I will now compare each of those to us :


(1) Stoke and Oxford have a 3 point advantage over us . Stoke have an easier run-in than us ….but Oxford have a harder one . I predict that Stoke will be safe ……but Oxford and us are in the balance .


(2) Derby are one point behind us …..but have the easiest run-in than any of the relegation candidates . I predict that us and Derby are in the balance .


(3) Luton are 2 points behind us …..but have a harder run-in than us . I predict we will finish above them . (4) Plymouth are 3 points behind us and have the hardest run-in of all the six relegation candidates . I predict they will be relegated .



My present conclusion (with 9 games to go): Plymouth - relegated . Luton - likely relegated. Cardiff , Derby , Oxford ……one to go down .

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Having said that the practical reality is a lot is going to depend on which team has the better fighting spirit ….and very much on who the manager is !

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Personally I believe that Omer Riza must go NOW


!! Because :


(1) He tinkers a lot with his team selection , formation and tactics …..which creates confusion and uncertainty ….and the played don’t get to settle and know each other .


(2) The way he sets up the starting team and tactics is in general poor .



(3) His reading of the game is very poor . His substitution decisions are really poor .



(4) His motivational ability is lacking - and this is a very important factor at this stage .

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Its simple really- 27 points to play for, forget what everyone else is doing, the question is, is it achievable? In my opinion it is between the bottom four now, think Oxford will scrape through, but I'm unsure what their run in looks like.

Can you honestly see us beating Stoke and Oxford at home when we couldn't beat Luton who are the second worst side in league. Those two games are 6 pointers even now.

I would not consider a run in specially this time of the season. Those fighting for a promotion place will feel the pressure and that will be said for those fighting relegation. Mid table teams are the ones to avoid as there will be no pressure on them to perform which results in them performing. Every team will have a mixer of playing promotional hopefulls, relegating fighters and mid tables. For me remaining games makes very little difference.

Its all down to the character of the players and the manager. Sorry to say but we just have not shown any of that of late and I make us one of the favourites to go down, even looking up at the rest of the league.

With only 9 games left its quite possible we could go those games without a win ....Oxford are on same run at moment no wins in 9 so it is very precarious..... need a new coach to sort our quickly our defensive mindset! got the weapons to win games but the ammunition just needs igniting ...under riza can't see that happening its not about the players fight its about using right tactics to get best out of players riza can't do that..... wouldn't like to say if can avoid relegation wouldn't put a penny bet on it.

Omer Riza has only won 20 of his 90 games as a manager (12 out of 49 for Cheshunt- 1 out of 7 for Leyton Orient - 9 out 34 for Cardiff) I'm afraid i cant see anything else but relegation with him in charge.

The chilling fact even now is IF we were to beat Blackburn on Saturday, we would likely still be 4th from bottom. If we don't get something there, we could well be in the bottom 3. Which means ALL of our games have now become critical.

The big one for us was Luton.

Results have gone our way also.

Hull have a bit of momentum, same with Derby.

If we can’t beat the worst team away from home, at home, then I fear that we are going down with Plymouth and Luton.

Tuesday was very, very costly. Just look at the results last night too, couldn't have gone any worse.

I really believed we'd beat Luton and then we'd be halfway to safety now.

As it is, we are in big trouble. Home games are key.

I don't see us getting anything on Saturday and if we then lose at home to Sheffield Wednesday after the international break, things will look very bleak.

Tuesday was very, very costly. Just look at the results last night too, couldn't have gone any worse.

I really believed we'd beat Luton and then we'd be halfway to safety now.

As it is, we are in big trouble. Home games are key.

I don't see us getting anything on Saturday and if we then lose at home to Sheffield Wednesday after the international break, things will look very bleak.

Blackbutn are aweful atm and I feel we could get something from this game. If we don't then we are down.

Tuesday was very, very costly. Just look at the results last night too, couldn't have gone any worse.

I really believed we'd beat Luton and then we'd be halfway to safety now.

As it is, we are in big trouble. Home games are key.

I don't see us getting anything on Saturday and if we then lose at home to Sheffield Wednesday after the international break, things will look very bleak.

Blackbutn are aweful atm and I feel we could get something from this game. If we don't then we are down.

Derby beat them, Stoke beat them, the jacks beat them, so normally I would agree.

But we can’t even beat Luton at home.

A good assessment Annis, its hard to predict anything in this brutal, unforgiving and unpredictable league.

We are in massive risk of going down with Riza at the helm. We have to avoid that last day tension and butterflies, and get mathematically safe before then, change the manager now. Riza who I really feel for given his recent circumstances is sadly way out of his depth, the madness of Tan yet again in employing a cheap yes man for a relegation battle. I dont think Tan paid much attention to our recent protest against his decision making of our beloved club. Im hoping after Tuesdays unacceptable shocker he can look within and realise we were right, we saw this coming. My hopes are no doubt in vein and he will dawdle over this current decision as Riza was his man yet again. A businessman despite repeated failures stubbornly still trying to be a football man. And rebrand aside, employing Riza could be his most costly decision yet.

If you dont change, nothing will change. Two seasons ago we were technically relegated. Say no more.

Tuesday was very, very costly. Just look at the results last night too, couldn't have gone any worse.

I really believed we'd beat Luton and then we'd be halfway to safety now.

As it is, we are in big trouble. Home games are key.

I don't see us getting anything on Saturday and if we then lose at home to Sheffield Wednesday after the international break, things will look very bleak.

Blackbutn are aweful atm and I feel we could get something from this game. If we don't then we are down.

Derby beat them, Stoke beat them, the jacks beat them, so normally I would agree.

But we can’t even beat Luton at home.

Yeah lol. I should not laugh.

Tuesday was very, very costly. Just look at the results last night too, couldn't have gone any worse.

I really believed we'd beat Luton and then we'd be halfway to safety now.

As it is, we are in big trouble. Home games are key.

I don't see us getting anything on Saturday and if we then lose at home to Sheffield Wednesday after the international break, things will look very bleak.

Blackbutn are aweful atm and I feel we could get something from this game. If we don't then we are down.

Luton have been awful until tuesday, Qpr were awful until they played us, the list goes on.

My personal take on things, and for what its worth: Riza, totally out of his depth as a coach/manager,,, certainly at this level, and so are his coaching staff (what the hell are they telling the players to do)?
The team, squad,, some players would struggle in the lower leagues. Others seem a mixture of confused, de-motivated and apathetic.
My conclusion is, this being the business end of the season, City are seen by other clubs as "easy pickings", there's no fight, no passion, no commitment from the team, from the minute we get on the pitch. I think we are going to be relegated,,, probably on the last game of the season, and probably on goal difference.

Tuesday was very, very costly. Just look at the results last night too, couldn't have gone any worse.

I really believed we'd beat Luton and then we'd be halfway to safety now.

As it is, we are in big trouble. Home games are key.

I don't see us getting anything on Saturday and if we then lose at home to Sheffield Wednesday after the international break, things will look very bleak.

Blackbutn are aweful atm and I feel we could get something from this game. If we don't then we are down.

Don't be daft, long way to go yet. I agree that Blackburn are not good atm though

I really think that Saturdays game at Blackburn will be make or break for Omar Riza, lose and he will be gone, draw they most probs will think about, win and Tan will keep him.
I wont be surprised if the board are looking for a replacement now ready for the International break.
Apparently I have heard that Dalman will not pick or look for the next manager because he did not agree with Tans choice in Riza in the first place.
Dalman wanted to bring an experienced manager in and Tan went for the cheaper option.
So Dalman has said to Tan you got us in this mess so its up to you to get us out of it.
Dalman and Choo wanted to get rid Tuesday night but left it up to Tan instead.

I'm not into this rotation of squad business.
I believe a team should include the 11 best and fully fit players available, each match, making an allowance for the balance on the pitch.
Unfortunately, Omer Riza appears to think differently.
However, it cannot all rest on his shoulders. I think the squad has lacked quality at this level from day one and along with a few unfortunate injuries throughout the season, they have often under-performed.
Also, I'm not convinced that Riza leaving at this stage will make much difference.
Having said that, I won't be sorry so see him leave.

I'm not into this rotation of squad business.
I believe a team should include the 11 best and fully fit players available, each match, making an allowance for the balance on the pitch.
Unfortunately, Omer Riza appears to think differently.
However, it cannot all rest on his shoulders. I think the squad has lacked quality at this level from day one and along with a few unfortunate injuries throughout the season, they have often under-performed.
Also, I'm not convinced that Riza leaving at this stage will make much difference.
Having said that, I won't be sorry so see him leave.

Agree with all that you have said.

Looking like riza staying only one way we are going that's relegation and we running out of games have no confidence in him turning this around

Looking like riza staying only one way we are going that's relegation and we running out of games have no confidence in him turning this around

But look at the wider picture its only our defence letting us down, they seem to panic and freeze every time other teams come forward at us, is it the quality of players we got in defence or is the training or their organisation all wrong, I really baffled and just dont get it.

We have one away win…. So forget away wins. Especially against Sheff Utd, Blackburn and Norwich.

That means we have 12 points to play for we need at least 9!

We are virtually relegated now, in my opinion.

I would bring a new manager in to maybe get that new manager bounce.

When there’s a big scrap in a relegation battle the teams that usually come out on top are the ones with that never say die attitude.

The team that has the best togetherness and fighting spirit.

I’m out of the country and have missed a lot recently but from what I’ve read this lack of fight is the thing that worries me most.
That’s down to Riza to motivate and make things happen!

i think
Cardiff Derby Luton AND Plymouth
Relegation Battle Is Wide Open

Any of us could go down
even plymouth can beat someone surprising

I can't see wins for us in the last 9 games.
Confidence will be shot after the Luton game.
Maybe against Oxford at home but thats it.

AWAY
Blackburn - Lose 2-1
QPR - Lose 2-0
Preston - Lose 2-0
Sheff Utd - Lose 3-0
Norwich - Lose 2-1

HOME
Sheff Wed - Lose 1-2
Stoke - Draw 2-2
Oxford - Draw 2-2
West Brom - Lose 1-3

Anything can happen and does in the efl championship
teams fighting for promotion via Play-Offs or Automatics
Every game is a final for us

When there’s a big scrap in a relegation battle the teams that usually come out on top are the ones with that never say die attitude.

The team that has the best togetherness and fighting spirit.
Really think how the rest of the season will go after todays performance.
Did the angry Riza get through to the team after the Luton sh#t show, well we will soon find out at 5pm today, if there is no difference in their attitude and performance then Im afraid we will all have to go to church tomorrow and prey for a miracle.
I’m out of the country and have missed a lot recently but from what I’ve read this lack of fight is the thing that worries me most.
That’s down to Riza to motivate and make things happen!

i think
Cardiff Derby Luton AND Plymouth
Relegation Battle Is Wide Open

Any of us could go down
even plymouth can beat someone surprising

I can't see wins for us in the last 9 games.
Confidence will be shot after the Luton game.
Maybe against Oxford at home but thats it.

AWAY
Blackburn - Lose 2-1
QPR - Lose 2-0
Preston - Lose 2-0
Sheff Utd - Lose 3-0
Norwich - Lose 2-1

HOME
Sheff Wed - Lose 1-2
Stoke - Draw 2-2
Oxford - Draw 2-2
West Brom - Lose 1-3

Anything can happen and does in the efl championship
teams fighting for promotion via Play-Offs or Automatics
Every game is a final for us

A good start to your predictions Sam, thank god!

I think we need 49 points…

Teams around us are now winning and picking up points.

Can can see Derby and Luton getting to that mark. Watched Luton’s game yesterday, how they didn’t beat boro I don’t know. 19 shots to 7, 6 classes as big chances.

I think we need 49 points…

Teams around us are now winning and picking up points.

Can can see Derby and Luton getting to that mark. Watched Luton’s game yesterday, how they didn’t beat boro I don’t know. 19 shots to 7, 6 classes as big chances.

That’s my worry about Luton. They still have decent players and will come good eventually.