Honest Opinions: I do wonder how this expert estimation tha

I do wonder how this expert estimation that we had a 50% chance of staying up will be received in a court of law, when the defense can just as responsibly argue he could have broke his leg in his first training session with us, become ill etc etc just look at Ramsey?

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=204226&p=2085674#p2085674



The possibility is figured into this oddly, but surely courts deal with facts and will not want to hand out €120mill based on probability alone and he might have been great in the Premiership, he might not have been?

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=204226&p=2085674#p2085674

And remember Emiliano Sala was our player when he sadly died and was our responsibility.


Plus remember Tan tried to say Emiliano Sala was not our player for nearly 2 years, which was absolutely low to try that.

Hi Annis. I have personal experience into these types of experts. I employed a similar type person (from Holland) when seeking to establish, following football abuse at Southampton & Man City, whether it would have been likely that certain persons would have made it in top flight football.

In the UK Courts judges are not experts in this field (same for diagnosing personal injuries) and for that reason, surprisingly as it may seem, Judges do put a lot of weight into expert evidence.

Remember in the civil court the bar is much lower. You only have to prove "on the balance of probabilites" (i.e. nothing guaranteed).

The expert has said he believes it is 52% or thereabouts.

I therefore expect this to go as follows:

a) We are claiming £120m
b) Nantes insurers will base any offer on a lower amount - say £70m
c) They will point to the expert opinion at around 50%
d) Bringing it to £35m
e) I anticipate they will offer somewhere between £20-40m

Tidy anywhere in that range would be a great result

That’s it.. all Courts conclude on the balance of probabilities.. whether something was more likely or not.

I do wonder how this expert estimation that we had a 50% chance of staying up will be received in a court of law, when the defense can just as responsibly argue he could have broke his leg in his first training session with us, become ill etc etc just look at Ramsey?

https://www.cardiffcityforum.co.uk/view ... 4#p2085674



The possibility is figured into this oddly, but surely courts deal with facts and will not want to hand out €120mill based on probability alone and he might have been great in the Premiership, he might not have been?

https://www.cardiffcityforum.co.uk/view ... 4#p2085674

And remember Emiliano Sala was our player when he sadly died and was our responsibility.


Plus remember Tan tried to say Emiliano Sala was not our player for nearly 2 years, which was absolutely low to try that.

You’re absolutely right that nobody can be really sure whether playing Sala could have kept us up.

But the civil courts don’t have to deal in facts or certainty (unlike criminal courts) they merely have to decide “on the balance of probabilities” which is a much lower threshold.

So in this case, do they think that signing a striker with a good track record over the previous two and a half seasons in Ligue 1 would, more likely than not, have resulted in Cardiff getting the additional 2 points they needed to finish above Brighton.

When you look at it like that I don’t think it’s a huge stretch to say there was a 51% chance that it could have done, which would be sufficient.

I know that’s over simplifying it but then again that isn’t the only ground the club is relying upon. They are also claiming that Nantes agent was acting on their behalf and therefore they are liable too, again, not a great stretch.

Again, Sala had a very good recent record in terms on missing games through injury over a number of seasons which helps our case in terms of “probability”.

Now, I don’t think for a minute that even if we win we’ll get €120m. In civil cases for damages you merely make a claim “limited to …..”, in this case €120m, but in reality that just a high figure to start the case.

We can speculate for ever and a day but until the judge/panel gives his decision we simply won’t know. Even if the case settles it’s unlikely that the full details will ever be released. We may be able to estimate but many settlements are subject to a non-disclosure clause with massive penalties for releasing details.

So we now just have to wait. I will still be very surprised if this gets to a full trial. The judge/panel will may give indications that will force Tan to withdraw the claim or Nantes will realise that things are not going their way and they will settle to save any further outlay and stop things coming out in open court that they don’t want to.

Interesting times.