Cardiff City Crowds and commercial revenue:
By Tom Coleman
As a general rule, and barring a few notable examples, relegation goes hand-in-hand with lower attendances.
It's difficult to really predict the extent of the drop-off in interest that would happen if Cardiff ended up in League One at this stage, but the growing disconnect between fans, and the club's apparent inability to take fan concerns seriously, means that a reduction in attendances is surely likely.
The last time Cardiff were in third tier, their average crowd was around 13,000, just 2,000 below the current average.
If they succumb to relegation, it's not entirely unreasonable to expect a similar figure. Perhaps even worse.
Putting a number on the financial impact is tricky given the number of variables at play here. But there are other examples that can perhaps offer some indication on what to expect.
When discussing Sheffield Wednesday's drop down to League One and the drop in matchday revenue, Dr Dan Plumley, a senior lecturer in sports finance at Sheffield Hallam University, told The Athletic in 2021: "The first season after they were relegated, 2010-11, they averaged just under 18,000 in attendance — a drop of about 5,000 from the year before in the Championship. Given the way things are, you might take about four- or five-thousand off the attendance and that roughly translates to the loss of just under £2 million."
Such figures can't necessarily be applied directly to Cardiff and their situation, but they do give a reasonable idea as to what might be on the horizon.
In terms of commercial revenue, it's again difficult to really speculate on the full impact on the Cardiff's bottom line.
Local sponsors might well be more likely to stick by the club, but those whose motivation is to get their name out to a global audience - something that's still possible in the Championship - may now think twice.
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