The "second wave"

It's now been a month since Boris Johnson started relaxing the lockdown rules in England and allowing their citizens to travel to the beach, have a picnic outside or visit beauty posts (a freedom still denied to those in Wales with many beaches and beauty spots still closed and blockaded)

Who can forget those pictures last month of thousands of people crammed onto beaches with scant regard for social distancing? Indeed, as we saw frequently on this messageboard there were numerous examples of idiots gathering outside even when the supposed lockdown was at it's "strictest".

And in the last few weeks we have seen mass protests and demonstrations with thousands BLM campaigners throughout the country including in Wales( many of whom are from one of the communities of people most at risk from the severity of the virus) with little or no social distancing.

And we also remember those pictures of commuters crammed into tube trains in London, many without masks or face coverings, with the Mayor of London being attacked for not putting on more services to prevent overcrowding.

So you'd think that a second wave would be starting to show by now? Yet it seems that the rates of infection continue to fall and not only in the UK I have not heard of any country that has begun to ease it's lockdown having experienced a "second wave".

Now, it may be that this second wave may be just around the corner but are we meant to continue hiding away, giving up our personal freedoms, ruining our already fragile economies, preventing our children's education and risking our physical and mental wellbeing for months and months more "just in case"?

I really do not wish to make light of this terrible virus - for those who have directly or indirectly suffered as a result it is a tragedy beyond words.

Yet I cannot help feeling that whilst it is sensible to be wary and to take special care if you or your family fall into the "vulnerable" category, for the vast majority of the population there has been a massive over-reaction to this whole situation which will continue to cause financial, health and mental problems for years to come. Some people will be terrified to go outside their doors for some considerable time.

And there certainly seems to be absolutely no justification that I can see, medical or otherwise, for our First Minister to keep Wales in this draconian form of lockdown which he seems determined to do for as long as he can.

So your an expert and because you can’t see a reason then we should all be able to go back to normal. The Welsh Government is sticking to the scientific advice. If you look at the USA 20 of the states that eased lockdown are now see increased cases. We have come this far and should stick it out for a few weeks more to be on the safe side. I am sure that our leaders in Wales are more than aware of both the medical and economic effects they are not doing this for fun.

It's now been a month since Boris Johnson started relaxing the lockdown rules in England and allowing their citizens to travel to the beach, have a picnic outside or visit beauty posts (a freedom still denied to those in Wales with many beaches and beauty spots still closed and blockaded)

Who can forget those pictures last month of thousands of people crammed onto beaches with scant regard for social distancing? Indeed, as we saw frequently on this messageboard there were numerous examples of idiots gathering outside even when the supposed lockdown was at it's "strictest".

And in the last few weeks we have seen mass protests and demonstrations with thousands BLM campaigners throughout the country including in Wales( many of whom are from one of the communities of people most at risk from the severity of the virus) with little or no social distancing.

And we also remember those pictures of commuters crammed into tube trains in London, many without masks or face coverings, with the Mayor of London being attacked for not putting on more services to prevent overcrowding.

So you'd think that a second wave would be starting to show by now? Yet it seems that the rates of infection continue to fall and not only in the UK I have not heard of any country that has begun to ease it's lockdown having experienced a "second wave".

Now, it may be that this second wave may be just around the corner but are we meant to continue hiding away, giving up our personal freedoms, ruining our already fragile economies, preventing our children's education and risking our physical and mental wellbeing for months and months more "just in case"?

I really do not wish to make light of this terrible virus - for those who have directly or indirectly suffered as a result it is a tragedy beyond words.

Yet I cannot help feeling that whilst it is sensible to be wary and to take special care if you or your family fall into the "vulnerable" category, for the vast majority of the population there has been a massive over-reaction to this whole situation which will continue to cause financial, health and mental problems for years to come. Some people will be terrified to go outside their doors for some considerable time.

And there certainly seems to be absolutely no justification that I can see, medical or otherwise, for our First Minister to keep Wales in this draconian form of lockdown which he seems determined to do for as long as he can.

2nd wave could start anytime in next 6months but like you say cannot stay locked up until 100% sure wont have 2nd wave! Drakeford just wants to be seen as a strong leader who makes own decisions and not copy rest of uk.... but all hes doing is putting financial disasters on leasure/ tourism especially., the worst part is he's already said WG does not have financial ways of keeping people furloughed or pay other benefits so as to rely on Westminster for the money.

I don't know about Wales, but I know that schools in the Midlands have been told privately by the Government that they should expect a second wave some time around October.

They have been told that this was always going to be the case, due to the nature of this particular virus.

I don't know about Wales, but I know that schools in the Midlands have been told privately by the Government that they should expect a second wave some time around October.

They have been told that this was always going to be the case, due to the nature of this particular virus.

Are you saying that the government has told just schools in the midlands to beware of a second wave and have pointed out that it’ll be in October? Surely this would be big news.

So your an expert and because you can’t see a reason then we should all be able to go back to normal. The Welsh Government is sticking to the scientific advice. If you look at the USA 20 of the states that eased lockdown are now see increased cases. We have come this far and should stick it out for a few weeks more to be on the safe side. I am sure that our leaders in Wales are more than aware of both the medical and economic effects they are not doing this for fun.

No I'm not an expert - just my own opinion.

The so called experts can't agree amongst themselves in any event - the Welsh government just happening to be following the "scientific advice" that they want to follow and which fits their agenda. Doesn't mean that's the right advice.

So you reckon everything will change in the next few weeks to be on the safe side.

We have so far had no acknowledgement in either words or actions that the leaders in Wales have any awareness of the medical or economic effects of the lockdown or that such matters play any part in their decision making.

If I remember they were asked specifically by the Tories last week whether any research had been carried out on the effect of continued lockdown on the people of Wales - I don't recall seeing any reply.

So your an expert and because you can’t see a reason then we should all be able to go back to normal. The Welsh Government is sticking to the scientific advice. If you look at the USA 20 of the states that eased lockdown are now see increased cases. We have come this far and should stick it out for a few weeks more to be on the safe side. I am sure that our leaders in Wales are more than aware of both the medical and economic effects they are not doing this for fun.

So rest of UKs scientific advice obviously differs from Wales! But Funny how that advice for wales is then ok a week or so later when nothing had changed ..... looking at what businesses are saying today you must have doubts WG are aware of impact their decisions are having.

I don't know about Wales, but I know that schools in the Midlands have been told privately by the Government that they should expect a second wave some time around October.

They have been told that this was always going to be the case, due to the nature of this particular virus.

It’s just the time of year coronavirus’ like colds etc usually start, flu a bit later. Happens every year

So your an expert and because you can’t see a reason then we should all be able to go back to normal. The Welsh Government is sticking to the scientific advice. If you look at the USA 20 of the states that eased lockdown are now see increased cases. We have come this far and should stick it out for a few weeks more to be on the safe side. I am sure that our leaders in Wales are more than aware of both the medical and economic effects they are not doing this for fun.

I'm not sure Drakeford knows his left from his right if he knows a reason,then in inform us,the public he just seems intent on denying any form of "good news" this period of lockdown, has already damaged the economy for years to come,education levels were poor in Wales before lockdown, and the longer schools are shut,the worse some kids will suffer,how are parents who are working from home going to manage in the 6 week break? As there will be no schools open,even for key workers,and I know full well,they have to manage in normal times,but those who are able to work from home,also have to keep the kids entertained, pretty hard going,especially if you are doing a normal 8 hr shift from home as well?

The "R value" - the coronavirus reproduction number - remains between 0.7 and 0.9 in the UK but in the south-west of England it could be above one, according to the latest figures from the government's scientific advisers.

The reproduction number is a way of rating a disease's ability to spread.

It's the number of people that one infected person will pass the virus on to, on average.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies [Sage] has published the regional R values for the first time, with England's South West estimate the highest at 0.8-1.1.

The estimate for London, the Midlands, the North West and the South East is 0.8-1.0, the North East and Yorkshire 0.7-1.0 and the East of England 0.7-0.9.

Restrictions could be tightened if the R number climbs above one but experts have warned about the reliability of the estimates.

Sage lists regional 'R numbers' for first time

The "R value" - the coronavirus reproduction number - remains between 0.7 and 0.9 in the UK but in the south-west of England it could be above one, according to the latest figures from the government's scientific advisers.

The reproduction number is a way of rating a disease's ability to spread.

It's the number of people that one infected person will pass the virus on to, on average.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies [Sage] has published the regional R values for the first time, with England's South West estimate the highest at 0.8-1.1.

The estimate for London, the Midlands, the North West and the South East is 0.8-1.0, the North East and Yorkshire 0.7-1.0 and the East of England 0.7-0.9.

Restrictions could be tightened if the R number climbs above one but experts have warned about the reliability of the estimates.

Sage lists regional 'R numbers' for first time

"Experts have warned about the reliability of the estimates".

Like most aspects of this whole crisis based almost entirely on guesswork and therefore capable of being manipulated in whatever way is chosen.

Everyman and his dog believe there will be a 2nd wave just due to type of virus rather than releasing lockdown early? So waiting for it to
come can be long time and not good idea to stall the opening of businesses waiting..

Everyman and his dog believe there will be a 2nd wave just due to type of virus rather than releasing lockdown early? So waiting for it to
come can be long time and not good idea to stall the opening of businesses waiting..

Talking to my son on Zoom as I type. He’s in NHS (pharmacist) and he and his colleagues agree that IF there’s a second wave it’ll be considerably smaller than this one; possibly less deadly too.
No idea of details though he did say that along with everyone else, there’s a fair bit of guesswork there.

Everyman and his dog believe there will be a 2nd wave just due to type of virus rather than releasing lockdown early? So waiting for it to
come can be long time and not good idea to stall the opening of businesses waiting..

Talking to my son on Zoom as I type. He’s in NHS (pharmacist) and he and his colleagues agree that IF there’s a second wave it’ll be considerably smaller than this one; possibly less deadly too.
No idea of details though he did say that along with everyone else, there’s a fair bit of guesswork there.

I was talking to someone at uhw other week and the problem they've got is WG wont use nhs labarotories for testing even though set up to be used WG prefer private labs ! And we know of the problem there's been there, so 2nd wave if comes will depend on reliability of trace and testing , but they said it probably won't be as bad as being suggested as hopefully learned lot from 1st wave

Everyman and his dog believe there will be a 2nd wave just due to type of virus rather than releasing lockdown early? So waiting for it to
come can be long time and not good idea to stall the opening of businesses waiting..

Talking to my son on Zoom as I type. He’s in NHS (pharmacist) and he and his colleagues agree that IF there’s a second wave it’ll be considerably smaller than this one; possibly less deadly too.
No idea of details though he did say that along with everyone else, there’s a fair bit of guesswork there.

I was talking to someone at uhw other week and the problem they've got is WG wont use nhs labarotories for testing even though set up to be used WG prefer private labs ! And we know of the problem there's been there, so 2nd wave if comes will depend on reliability of trace and testing , but they said it probably won't be as bad as being suggested as hopefully learned lot from 1st wave

Yes that’s pretty much what he said. He’d working in England and says they’re well prepared but not expecting anything close to the one we’ve just had.

Oxford professor would be 'very surprised' if UK avoided second wave

An expert has told peers he would be "very surprised" if the UK avoided a second coronavirus wave.

The House of Lords Science and Technology Committee heard that countries like China and Iran have experienced second waves of the outbreak, and that Hong Kong is nearing its third wave.

Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at the University of Oxford, told the committee that with lockdown restrictions easing, it is likely the UK will also see a return of the Covid-19 epidemic.

He said: "I think it is possible that we might not have a second wave.

"But I think given the fact that the lockdown has now been largely released, we're now back in action, and we have still, pretty rapidly declining, but a pretty reasonable level of infections in the community, I would be very surprised if we avoided the second wave."

I don't know about Wales, but I know that schools in the Midlands have been told privately by the Government that they should expect a second wave some time around October.

They have been told that this was always going to be the case, due to the nature of this particular virus.

Coronaviruses always circulate around that time of year, colds and flu season etc....when all the students descend on a place. It’s hardly ground breaking news. Whatever happens, no government can afford another national lockdown.
So I guess those under 60 with no underlying conditions will have to crack on and keep the country running, as less than 300 have died in England since March. Those with conditions or elderly will have to keep shielding until a suitable vaccine comes along, if there is a second and third wave....

I don't know about Wales, but I know that schools in the Midlands have been told privately by the Government that they should expect a second wave some time around October.

They have been told that this was always going to be the case, due to the nature of this particular virus.

Coronaviruses always circulate around that time of year, colds and flu season etc....when all the students descend on a place. It’s hardly ground breaking news. Whatever happens, no government can afford another national lockdown.
So I guess those under 60 with no underlying conditions will have to crack on and keep the country running, as less than 300 have died in England since March. Those with conditions or elderly will have to keep shielding until a suitable vaccine comes along, if there is a second and third wave....

which is what should have happened this time...
I know hindsight is a wonderful thing and that but China were getting over it and Italy had 5k plus deaths before we locked down.. and all the evidence from both was that it kills mostly the infirm and elderly..

Give it a couple of weeks and all those on the march will meet up again in hospital.
The US will be even worse hit, 2nd wave mid July if the reports are accurate

Give it a couple of weeks and all those on the march will meet up again in hospital.
The US will be even worse hit, 2nd wave mid July if the reports are accurate

you should apply for a job in the assembly mate..

Give it a couple of weeks and all those on the march will meet up again in hospital.
The US will be even worse hit, 2nd wave mid July if the reports are accurate

Depends which reports you read / hear mate.

So your an expert and because you can’t see a reason then we should all be able to go back to normal. The Welsh Government is sticking to the scientific advice. If you look at the USA 20 of the states that eased lockdown are now see increased cases. We have come this far and should stick it out for a few weeks more to be on the safe side. I am sure that our leaders in Wales are more than aware of both the medical and economic effects they are not doing this for fun.

It's a disease - and its not going away. There is no vacinne (yet) and there is no way of stopping further outbreaks.

All anybody can do is isolate if you medically have to. Otherwise everyone needs to be sensible and precautious. Safe distancing, avoid any mass social gatherings. Go about your work , follow the guidelines, be sensible, wear a mask and sanitise your hands often. Can you should be ok. Lockdown will be used like a slow release tap - like they first suggested.

I don't know about Wales, but I know that schools in the Midlands have been told privately by the Government that they should expect a second wave some time around October.

They have been told that this was always going to be the case, due to the nature of this particular virus.

Ned, this is what our local authorities/emergency services have been told and planning for

A 'new wave' or a 'spike' resulting from poor management (by politicians and many of the public) of the current outbreak is yet to be seen; but it seems increasingly likely Covid-19 will see out this year before being fully under control