These areas of Wales have the fastest spreading outbreaks of

These areas of Wales have the fastest spreading outbreaks of coronavirus right now

The total number of cases of coronavirus in an area no longer tells the whole story






By David James

Thursday 30th April 2020



Every day, we publish figures showing how many cases of coronavirus have been diagnosed in each area of Wales.

It tells a familiar story. The two big cities of south-east Wales, Newport and Cardiff, have been the epicentre of Wales' coronavirus outbreak.

To this day, the two cities have both had the densest concentrations of diagnosed coronavirus cases in Wales since the pandemic hit these shores.

Yet this no longer tells all the story. It does not tell us where coronavirus is spreading now. Newport's outbreak was the first to peak in Wales. Yet latest data suggest that thanks to lockdown, it is now well past that peak.

It is now nearly two months since the first case of Covid-19 was diagnosed in Wales on March 1 - and a lot has changed in the last nine weeks.

The areas where coronavirus is spreading most rapidly now are very different to the ones that saw the first cases nearly two months ago.

There are a number of ways to look at how rapidly coronavirus is spreading in different communities right now. The simplest is just to look at the last two days of data published by Public Health Wales.

This map shows the council areas that have recorded the most cases in the last two days

This map suggests that the council areas that first saw the most rapid outbreak of coronavirus, in the Aneurin Bevan health board area, are no longer the biggest problem in Wales.

The experts have said since the beginning that different areas would see the peak at different times. And it suggests the peak is now shifting elsewhere.

This map suggests that Rhondda Cynon Taf, Neath and Swansea have had the most cases relative to popluation in the last two days - as have the communities in the north-west corner of Wales.

For every 100k people in the area, RCT has seen 21 cases of Covid-19, Swansea 16.6, Neath 15.3 and Merthyr 15.7.

In north-east Wales, Anglesey has seen 15.7, Gwynedd 13.6, and Denbighshire 12.5.

This is not a totally reliable guide as two days is not a long time period and is easily skewed.

We can use health board data published here to look at the last week - from April 21 to 28 - and it shows a similar picture.

This map shows the health board areas that have recorded the most cases in the last week

Again, this map shows that fewer cases are being recorded at the moment in Newport and the surrounding areas than in other parts of Wales.

The biggest concentration of new cases, relative to population, are in the Swansea Bay health board area, the Cwm Taf health board area that covers RCT, Merthyr and Bridgend, and in Cardiff.

For every 100k people in the area, the Swansea Bay health board has seen 78 cases of Covid-19 in the last week, Cwm Taf 71 and Cardiff 63.

If there is an increase in spread in north-west Wales it is only showing up slightly in the weekly figures so is either very recent or is an abberation caused by looking at such a short time period as two days.

Why some areas are seeing faster spread now is not clear from the data. It could be because lockdown is not being respected so well in those areas or because second home owners are travelling to north-west Wales.

It could also simply show that the virus will peak in different areas at different times. And that poses a difficult challenge for the Welsh Government as it assesses how to come out of lockdown.

It is also particularly worrying for Ceredigion, which has seen hardly any cases, and would be vulnerable to a sudden opening up of the lockdown restrictions.

You could look at the figures for the number of deaths however it is not the best guide we have to where coronavirus is spreading right now.

It takes five days to a week before anyone infected with coronavirus will show any symptoms. It can take two weeks after showing symptoms for those who are susceptible to the disease to fall seriously ill and be hospitalised.

People can also stay in intensive care for a further week or more before they recover or, sadly, die.

The most comprehensive data for deaths comes from the Office for National Statistics.

This includes deaths where doctors have included Covid-19 on the death certificate even where it has not been confirmed in a lab.

However this is over a week out of date when it is published. The latest figures, published on Tuesday refer to the week from the week from April 10 to April 17. They are more a measure of the heartbreak each area has suffered than where Covid-19 is spreading now. In truth, they probably show how rapidly coronavirus was spreading in each part of Wales in early March.

This map shows the areas that recorded the most deaths relative to population between April 10 and April 17









The five areas that saw the biggest increase in deaths relative to population that week were:

Blaenau Gwent with 24.4 deaths for every 100k people in the area
Merthyr Tydfil with 19.9 deaths for every 100k people in the area
Caerphilly with 18.8 deaths for every 100k people in the area
Cardiff with 17.7 deaths for every 100k people in the area
Swansea with 16.6 deaths for every 100k people in the area

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There's one part of that report I am struggling to get my head round.

It says when referring to deaths reported by the Office for National Statistics:-

"This includes deaths where doctors have included Covid-19 on the death certificate where it had not been confirmed in a lab"

How can Covid-19 be included on a death certificate if it has not been confirmed? Are the doctors who complete the death certificates just guessing or assuming that Covid-19 is a cause of death?

How can the figures be accurate if the doctors do not know if Covid-19 was a cause but are putting it on the death certificate anyway?

If anyone could clarify what they mean by that I would be grateful.

There's one part of that report I am struggling to get my head round.

It says when referring to deaths reported by the Office for National Statistics:-

"This includes deaths where doctors have included Covid-19 on the death certificate where it had not been confirmed in a lab"

How can Covid-19 be included on a death certificate if it has not been confirmed? Are the doctors who complete the death certificates just guessing or assuming that Covid-19 is a cause of death?

How can the figures be accurate if the doctors do not know if Covid-19 was a cause but are putting it on the death certificate anyway?

If anyone could clarify what they mean by that I would be grateful.

I’ve had experience of this mate.
My late mother had COVID-19 / pneumonia written on her DC and when I asked the doctor prior to him writing it out if she had CV-19 his answer was that ‘it could well be’.

There's one part of that report I am struggling to get my head round.

It says when referring to deaths reported by the Office for National Statistics:-

"This includes deaths where doctors have included Covid-19 on the death certificate where it had not been confirmed in a lab"

How can Covid-19 be included on a death certificate if it has not been confirmed? Are the doctors who complete the death certificates just guessing or assuming that Covid-19 is a cause of death?

How can the figures be accurate if the doctors do not know if Covid-19 was a cause but are putting it on the death certificate anyway?

If anyone could clarify what they mean by that I would be grateful.

I’ve had experience of this mate.
My late mother had COVID-19 / pneumonia written on her DC and when I asked the doctor prior to him writing it out if she had CV-19 his answer was that ‘it could well be’.

Thanks very much for replying and I'm very sorry to hear about your mother - sincere condolences.

There's one part of that report I am struggling to get my head round.

It says when referring to deaths reported by the Office for National Statistics:-

"This includes deaths where doctors have included Covid-19 on the death certificate where it had not been confirmed in a lab"

How can Covid-19 be included on a death certificate if it has not been confirmed? Are the doctors who complete the death certificates just guessing or assuming that Covid-19 is a cause of death?

How can the figures be accurate if the doctors do not know if Covid-19 was a cause but are putting it on the death certificate anyway?

If anyone could clarify what they mean by that I would be grateful.

I’ve had experience of this mate.
My late mother had COVID-19 / pneumonia written on her DC and when I asked the doctor prior to him writing it out if she had CV-19 his answer was that ‘it could well be’.

Thanks very much for replying and I'm very sorry to hear about your mother - sincere condolences.

Cheers mate. No worries

There's one part of that report I am struggling to get my head round.

It says when referring to deaths reported by the Office for National Statistics:-

"This includes deaths where doctors have included Covid-19 on the death certificate where it had not been confirmed in a lab"

How can Covid-19 be included on a death certificate if it has not been confirmed? Are the doctors who complete the death certificates just guessing or assuming that Covid-19 is a cause of death?

How can the figures be accurate if the doctors do not know if Covid-19 was a cause but are putting it on the death certificate anyway?

If anyone could clarify what they mean by that I would be grateful.

I’ve had experience of this mate.
My late mother had COVID-19 / pneumonia written on her DC and when I asked the doctor prior to him writing it out if she had CV-19 his answer was that ‘it could well be’.

Many years ago my grandfather who at 45 had to retire from working underground in the pits,he had what they then called "dust" he had dementia when he was 70, and died when he was 72, and it was always the case in the valleys that when a miner died from what was called pneumoconiosis, doctors put on the death certificate the cause of death pneumonia. This was allegedly down to most doctors doing a lot of work for the mineowners, and so if pneumoconiosis was put on the death certificate then the mineowners would have to pay compensation to the family. Because our doctor was his own man, my grandfather was the first in the rhondda to have pneumoconiosis written on his death certificate (which I still have) so I well understand that a lot of care home deaths are not at all related to Covid19, we will never know, the real number of Covid 19 deaths!

Sadly

To add to the uncertainty here, as part of emergency Covid measures, the necessity for a doctor to see the deceased first hand before providing certification has been removed.

On whose say so covid may or may not be stated on certificates of those passing outside hospitals is variable at best

http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/clinical/cl ... 66.article

To add to the uncertainty here, as part of emergency Covid measures, the necessity for a doctor to see the deceased first hand before providing certification has been removed.

On whose say so covid may or may not be stated on certificates of those passing outside hospitals is variable at best

http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/clinical/cl ... 66.article

yep. everyone is so enthralled /interested / obsessed by these daily figures and league tables but the reality is most of the data is dubious .

https://twitter.com/Millie__Weaver/stat ... 43424?s=19

195 new cases brings Wales' total to 10,524
A further 195 cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in Wales, taking the total to 10,524, Public Health Wales (PHW) has said.

The true number of cases is likely to be higher as many people with symptoms are not tested.

Covid-19 deaths by day in Wales
In its latest announcement, Public Health Wales (PHW) said a further 14 people in Wales had died with coronavirus, bringing the total to 997.

There's one part of that report I am struggling to get my head round.

It says when referring to deaths reported by the Office for National Statistics:-

"This includes deaths where doctors have included Covid-19 on the death certificate where it had not been confirmed in a lab"

How can Covid-19 be included on a death certificate if it has not been confirmed? Are the doctors who complete the death certificates just guessing or assuming that Covid-19 is a cause of death?

How can the figures be accurate if the doctors do not know if Covid-19 was a cause but are putting it on the death certificate anyway?

If anyone could clarify what they mean by that I would be grateful.

I’ve had experience of this mate.
My late mother had COVID-19 / pneumonia written on her DC and when I asked the doctor prior to him writing it out if she had CV-19 his answer was that ‘it could well be’.

Sorry to hear about your mother and I say this with respect that the figures are suited for an agenda which isn't really as bad as it seems.
Again sorry about your mother