“ Dr Hilary and How The UK compares “

BBC : This morning at 6:10am Wednesday 29th April 2020


This is the death toll chart before they will later include the care home and private deaths and in the community


Dr Hilary: UK was to late in their lockdown, never locked down airports and continued to have events like Cheltenham and UK should of listened to countries that were already experiencing the COV 19.


SKY / ITV / THE TIMES ETC

THEY ARE ALL NOW SAYING THE UK GOVT WERE WAY TO SLOW IN THEIR LOCKDOWN & WERE NOT STRICT ENOUGH & NEVER LISTENED TO OTHER COUNTRIES ADVICE.


Sadly UK will now become the worst death toll in the world behind USA


viewtopic.php?f=2&t=213752

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Care home fatalities to be included in daily coronavirus death tolls

The death toll from coronavirus in care homes will be announced daily from Wednesday after figures revealed a sharp rise of more than 4,300 deaths in a fortnight in England and Wales and care operators said they were at the centre of the crisis.





The UK could end up with the worst coronavirus death rate in Europe, one of the government’s leading scientific advisers has said.

Prof Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust and a pandemics expert on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies

“ UK MUST CONTINUE WITH A LOCKDOWN “


Britain is on track to record the worst coronavirus death tolls in Europe, after data published on Tuesday showed fatalities topped 24,000 nine days ago.

A day after Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke of success in dealing with the outbreak, the new figures showed the week ending April 17 was Britain's deadliest since comparable records began in 1993.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said 21,284 people had died in England by April 17 with mentions of COVID-19 on their death certificate. Together with figures from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, the total United Kingdom death toll was at least 24,000 as of April 19.



"The United Kingdom is going to be right up there among the worst-hit nations in the initial surge," said Bill Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard's T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

"With the most optimistic views of the amount of immunity that might be being generated, it would be still not be close to having enough to be able to return to normal," he told Reuters.

Unlike the hospital death tolls announced daily by the government, the fresh figures include deaths in community settings, such as care homes where overall fatalities have tripled in a few weeks.

Overall, Tuesday's figures for COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales up to April 17 were more than 50 per cent higher than the daily toll for deaths in hospitals initially announced by the government.

The figures underline the scale of the challenge facing Johnson as he returns to work after himself recovering from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the novel coronavirus, and the dangers of relaxing Britain's lockdown too soon.

He warned on Monday that it was still too dangerous to relax stringent measures wreaking havoc on the economy, for fear of a deadly second outbreak.

Sweden were even more relaxed than the UK and numbers from their care homes etc expected to be very high.



UK has 400,000 people living in their care homes and numbers of deaths over all expected to be high

Horrible all of it.

And many in the UK are critical of the media for daring to question the government, using phrases like ‘media conspiracy’.

I’m no fan of our media but the death toll is now obscene and we sleep-walked into this - politicians of all types get paranoid when in the public eye, and with nut jobs like Dominic Cummings sitting in on SAGE it’s a rerun of Alistair Campbell sexing up the Iraq dossier.

Coronavirus: UK will have Europe's worst death toll, says study

IHME analysis is disputed by scientists whose modelling is relied on by UK government

Sarah Boseley Health editor

Wed 8 Apr 2020 08.31 BST

World-leading disease data analysts have projected that the UK will become the country worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic in Europe, accounting for more than 40% of total deaths across the continent.

The analysts also claim discussions over “herd immunity” led to a delay in the UK introducing physical distancing measures, which were brought in from 23 March in England when the coronavirus daily death toll was 54. Portugal, by comparison, had just one confirmed death when distancing measures were imposed.

The IHME modelling forecasts that by 4 August the UK will see a total of 66,314 deaths – an average taken from a large estimate range of between 14,572 and 219,211 deaths, indicating the uncertainties around it.

The above article was in The Guardian 3 weeks ago - it goes on about the usual stuff covered at press meetings and to show graphs etc...

Horrible all of it.

And many in the UK are critical of the media for daring to question the government, using phrases like ‘media conspiracy’.

I’m no fan of our media but the death toll is now obscene and we sleep-walked into this - politicians of all types get paranoid when in the public eye, and with nut jobs like Dominic Cummings sitting in on SAGE it’s a rerun of Alistair Campbell sexing up the Iraq dossier.

Jimmy,

The problem is the media are not being helpful as day after day they have for weeks asked and pushed for the soft lockdown to be lifted which was and us madness .

Coronavirus: UK will have Europe's worst death toll, says study

IHME analysis is disputed by scientists whose modelling is relied on by UK government

Sarah Boseley Health editor

Wed 8 Apr 2020 08.31 BST

World-leading disease data analysts have projected that the UK will become the country worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic in Europe, accounting for more than 40% of total deaths across the continent.

The analysts also claim discussions over “herd immunity” led to a delay in the UK introducing physical distancing measures, which were brought in from 23 March in England when the coronavirus daily death toll was 54. Portugal, by comparison, had just one confirmed death when distancing measures were imposed.

The IHME modelling forecasts that by 4 August the UK will see a total of 66,314 deaths – an average taken from a large estimate range of between 14,572 and 219,211 deaths, indicating the uncertainties around it.

The above article was in The Guardian 3 weeks ago - it goes on about the usual stuff covered at press meetings and to show graphs etc...

It’s gut wrenching Tony and we both have been saying you could sadly see it coming and that’s why I was losing it when some continued to argue that the UK were doing everything right and the public when you could clearly see they were not and should of listened to countries who offered advice.

I have close family and close friends in the UK and it’s heartbreaking to see all this

Coronavirus: UK will have Europe's worst death toll, says study

IHME analysis is disputed by scientists whose modelling is relied on by UK government

Sarah Boseley Health editor

Wed 8 Apr 2020 08.31 BST

World-leading disease data analysts have projected that the UK will become the country worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic in Europe, accounting for more than 40% of total deaths across the continent.

The analysts also claim discussions over “herd immunity” led to a delay in the UK introducing physical distancing measures, which were brought in from 23 March in England when the coronavirus daily death toll was 54. Portugal, by comparison, had just one confirmed death when distancing measures were imposed.

The IHME modelling forecasts that by 4 August the UK will see a total of 66,314 deaths – an average taken from a large estimate range of between 14,572 and 219,211 deaths, indicating the uncertainties around it.

The above article was in The Guardian 3 weeks ago - it goes on about the usual stuff covered at press meetings and to show graphs etc...

It’s gut wrenching Tony and we both have been saying you could sadly see it coming and that’s why I was losing it when some continued to argue that the UK were doing everything right and the public when you could clearly see they were not and should of listened to countries who offered advice.

I have close family and close friends in the UK and it’s heartbreaking to see all this

It's shocking / heartbreaking as you say Annis .
As for the MP's and the science they are following in this battle - i have never seen people not in touch with their numbers
And figs which are changed daily - made up or can't get hold of for months !! Shocking .

It depends how you treat the numbers. These are the death rate figures per 1M of the population, according to Worldometer.

1)Belgium - 633

2) Spain - 510

3) Italy - 453

4) France - 362

5) UK- 319

6) Holland - 266

How reliable these(or any) figures are, I know not. Each country has different densities, lockdowns, treatment capabilities, culture etc etc, so looking at one parameter only is slightly misleading imo.

Where the Government went wrong with Care Homes was discharging elderly patients into Care Homes (to free up hospital beds) without testing them for COVID-19 at the start of this crisis.

This led to the virus running rampant through Homes which received any patient who had COVID-19. This is why the death rate in Care Homes is so high.

Where the Government went wrong with Care Homes was discharging elderly patients into Care Homes (to free up hospital beds) without testing them for COVID-19 at the start of this crisis.

This led to the virus running rampant through Homes which received any patient who had COVID-19. This is why the death rate in Care Homes is so high.

Spot On mate .

It depends how you treat the numbers. These are the death rate figures per 1M of the population, according to Worldometer.

1)Belgium - 633

2) Spain - 510

3) Italy - 453

4) France - 362

5) UK- 319

6) Holland - 266

How reliable these(or any) figures are, I know not. Each country has different densities, lockdowns, treatment capabilities, culture etc etc, so looking at one parameter only is slightly misleading imo.

TBH I lost faith in the numbers a few weeks ago. As you say there are several ways to interpret the figures and whoever has an agenda will use the figure which most helps their argument.

Where the Government went wrong with Care Homes was discharging elderly patients into Care Homes (to free up hospital beds) without testing them for COVID-19 at the start of this crisis.

This led to the virus running rampant through Homes which received any patient who had COVID-19. This is why the death rate in Care Homes is so high.

Spot On mate .

Agreed this has been the biggest mistake IMO, we knew early on we needed the protect the elderly and vulnerable, someone described it as letting a fox loose in a chicken coop.

Where the Government went wrong with Care Homes was discharging elderly patients into Care Homes (to free up hospital beds) without testing them for COVID-19 at the start of this crisis.

This led to the virus running rampant through Homes which received any patient who had COVID-19. This is why the death rate in Care Homes is so high.

Your spot on Tony

It depends how you treat the numbers. These are the death rate figures per 1M of the population, according to Worldometer.

1)Belgium - 633

2) Spain - 510

3) Italy - 453

4) France - 362

5) UK- 319

6) Holland - 266

How reliable these(or any) figures are, I know not. Each country has different densities, lockdowns, treatment capabilities, culture etc etc, so looking at one parameter only is slightly misleading imo.

Spot on figures per million give a chance to fairly review the population, how are Sweden and the US looking per million?

It depends how you treat the numbers. These are the death rate figures per 1M of the population, according to Worldometer.

1)Belgium - 633

2) Spain - 510

3) Italy - 453

4) France - 362

5) UK- 319

6) Holland - 266


How reliable these(or any) figures are, I know not. Each country has different densities, lockdowns, treatment capabilities, culture etc etc, so looking at one parameter only is slightly misleading imo.

You can twist them which ever way you want, UK is two wks behind most countries and not included all their care homes etc and should of learned from Italy & Spain.

So do you think UK is not that bad then?

Or is not as bad as the other countries that’s what you’ve virtually said.



I think you have forgotten that the deaths in care homes are sadly going to be beyond horrendous in the UK.

The key figure is deaths per head of population, but I have now lost all confidence with any figures coming from this government.

I defended them for a while based on the figures they were publishing. If those figures were wrong then any assumptions made based on them are clearly going to be wrong too.

Despite this it does seem that we are coming out of this, first, peak. Whilst overall death figures have gone up recently because of adding in the deaths outside of hospitals the real trend is now consistently downward.

I do think that in a couple of weeks time we will be able to consider relaxing the restrictions but I have to say, I've
lost all confidence in what this government is telling me and it's ability to make the right decision at the right time. For instance allowing people to fly into this country unchecked yet not allowing residents to travel to down the road or to a second home even if they have been tested

We will not really be able to fully assess how every country has done for about twelve months when all the data is available.

I think a factor will be the health of the Nations, I think the UK and US have more than their fair share of obesity, hypertension, diabetes and heart disease with an ageing population this could have a bearing on the effects of Covid 19?

Last edited by Bluebina on Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:55 am, edited 1 time in total.

The key figure is deaths per head of population, but I have now lost all confidence with any figures coming from this government.

I defended them for a while based on the figures they were publishing. If those figures were wrong then any assumptions made based on them are clearly going to be wrong too.

Despite this it does seem that we are coming out of this, first, peak. Whilst overall death figures have gone up recently because of adding in the deaths outside of hospitals the real trend is now consistently downward.

I do think that in a couple of weeks time we will be able to consider relaxing the restrictions but I have to say, I've
lost all confidence in what this government is telling me and it's ability to make the right decision at the right time. For instance allowing people to fly into this country unchecked yet not allowing residents to travel to down the road or to a second home even if they have been tested

Yes I agree with you and I think the UK needs not come out of a lockdown (partial) and should of had a proper one weeks ago.

Starmer: UK 'on track for worse death rate in Europe'

House of Commons

Parliament

For his first question, Sir Keir Starmer says 27,241 people have probably died with coronavirus in all settings, and this number will rise further.

Referencing Mr Johnson's comments this week on the "apparent success" of the UK lockdown, Sir Keir says the UK is "possibly on track to have the worst death rate in Europe".

In reply, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab says the pandemic is "unprecedented" - and expresses his "joint horror" at the deaths.

However he says it is "too early" to make international comparisons on the death rates.

Starmer: UK 'on track for worse death rate in Europe'

House of Commons

Parliament

For his first question, Sir Keir Starmer says 27,241 people have probably died with coronavirus in all settings, and this number will rise further.

Referencing Mr Johnson's comments this week on the "apparent success" of the UK lockdown, Sir Keir says the UK is "possibly on track to have the worst death rate in Europe".

In reply, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab says the pandemic is "unprecedented" - and expresses his "joint horror" at the deaths.

However he says it is "too early" to make international comparisons on the death rates.

Tony. Apparently some idiot said it’s getting boring talking daily about the virus and each countries figures. Try telling that to the poor families who have lost loved ones.
We actually want the figures to be zero, there is No joy in putting them out.

The point is this topic sadly is the biggest discussion in the world and you can’t ignore it.

I think it is now clear that the main policy the UK Government has followed through this crisis of following the science and hitting home their "Power Of Three" slogan of "Stay Home - Protect The NHS- Save Lives", has worked to a point. However putting so much focus on preventing the NHS from being overrun has left the care home sector exposed to the ravages of this virus.

With everyday that goes by it is becoming clear that care homes are becoming the new "Front Line" of this pandemic in the UK and given the age of residents in these homes the number of deaths, god forbid, could be horrific.

It has taken 6 weeks for this country to have the testing capacity to include ALL care home residents and staff. Why? When you look at testing levels in other countries like Italy and Spain, 1.8m & 1.3m respectively it is little wonder that we are where we are when the UK has carried out just .75m.

The reality is the UK has not invested enough to ensure there was sufficient testing capacity within Public Health Services to cope with a global pandemic, and that is not just down to the current Government but, in my opinion, you could go back to Thatcher to find the birth of the Public Spending is Bad ideology and we are now facing the full consequences of it.

I honestly believe that our current Government has had to go to war with this virus with, in international terms, a sub-standard Public Health Service which has been forced to prioritise it's testing capacity to Hospitals at the cost of care homes.

I hope when this is over that the British public remember these harrowing times and demand that we have a Public Health Service that is second to none, Whatever the cost.

Starmer: UK 'on track for worse death rate in Europe'

House of Commons

Parliament

For his first question, Sir Keir Starmer says 27,241 people have probably died with coronavirus in all settings, and this number will rise further.

Referencing Mr Johnson's comments this week on the "apparent success" of the UK lockdown, Sir Keir says the UK is "possibly on track to have the worst death rate in Europe".

In reply, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab says the pandemic is "unprecedented" - and expresses his "joint horror" at the deaths.

However he says it is "too early" to make international comparisons on the death rates.

Tony. Apparently some idiot said it’s getting boring talking daily about the virus and each countries figures. Try telling that to the poor families who have lost loved ones.
We actually want the figures to be zero, there is No joy in putting them out.

The point is this topic sadly is the biggest discussion in the world and you can’t ignore it.

Spot On and unless some people are logging on from the moon - mars or some other planet !! This effects our lives .
This virus has stopped us in our movement to places we go to - people we meet - Sport - Pubs - Gyms - Work - etc...
Anything we do now is controlled by this "Hidden Mugger" !! I to wished it was ZERO Deaths mate .

I think it is now clear that the main policy the UK Government has followed through this crisis of following the science and hitting home their "Power Of Three" slogan of "Stay Home - Protect The NHS- Save Lives", has worked to a point. However putting so much focus on preventing the NHS from being overrun has left the care home sector exposed to the ravages of this virus.

With everyday that goes by it is becoming clear that care homes are becoming the new "Front Line" of this pandemic in the UK and given the age of residents in these homes the number of deaths, god forbid, could be horrific.

It has taken 6 weeks for this country to have the testing capacity to include ALL care home residents and staff. Why? When you look at testing levels in other countries like Italy and Spain, 1.8m & 1.3m respectively it is little wonder that we are where we are when the UK has carried out just .75m.

The reality is the UK has not invested enough to ensure there was sufficient testing capacity within Public Health Services to cope with a global pandemic, and that is not just down to the current Government but, in my opinion, you could go back to Thatcher to find the birth of the Public Spending is Bad ideology and we are now facing the full consequences of it.

I honestly believe that our current Government has had to go to war with this virus with, in international terms, a sub-standard Public Health Service which has been forced to prioritise it's testing capacity to Hospitals at the cost of care homes.

I hope when this is over that the British public remember these harrowing times and demand that we have a Public Health Service that is second to none, Whatever the cost.

Gary, WELL SAID


THE NHS in future must be every Govts policy to fully back it and never allow it to go down hill

Starmer: UK 'on track for worse death rate in Europe'

House of Commons

Parliament

For his first question, Sir Keir Starmer says 27,241 people have probably died with coronavirus in all settings, and this number will rise further.

Referencing Mr Johnson's comments this week on the "apparent success" of the UK lockdown, Sir Keir says the UK is "possibly on track to have the worst death rate in Europe".

In reply, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab says the pandemic is "unprecedented" - and expresses his "joint horror" at the deaths.

However he says it is "too early" to make international comparisons on the death rates.

Tony. Apparently some idiot said it’s getting boring talking daily about the virus and each countries figures. Try telling that to the poor families who have lost loved ones.
We actually want the figures to be zero, there is No joy in putting them out.

The point is this topic sadly is the biggest discussion in the world and you can’t ignore it.

Spot On and unless some people are logging on from the moon - mars or some other planet !! This effects our lives .
This virus has stopped us in our movement to places we go to - people we meet - Sport - Pubs - Gyms - Work - etc...
Anything we do now is controlled by this "Hidden Mugger" !! I to wished it was ZERO Deaths mate .

Tony,
We all want this to end, but it’s not going to go away for sadly for a long time .

The key figure is deaths per head of population, but I have now lost all confidence with any figures coming from this government.

I defended them for a while based on the figures they were publishing. If those figures were wrong then any assumptions made based on them are clearly going to be wrong too.

Despite this it does seem that we are coming out of this, first, peak. Whilst overall death figures have gone up recently because of adding in the deaths outside of hospitals the real trend is now consistently downward.

I do think that in a couple of weeks time we will be able to consider relaxing the restrictions but I have to say, I've
lost all confidence in what this government is telling me and it's ability to make the right decision at the right time. For instance allowing people to fly into this country unchecked yet not allowing residents to travel to down the road or to a second home even if they have been tested

Yes I agree with you and I think the UK needs not come out of a lockdown (partial) and should of had a proper one weeks ago.

Annis you agreed with me on one thread,now again you seem to be taking these figures as true??the figures are not being recorded correctly we both said? A large proportion of the country has been staying in,only going out when needs must,so in fact have been in a proper lockdown,my mum for instance is entering her 8th week of complete lockdown,how much longer can she cope?? She is showing signs of depression already, bless her.let's not forget 125,000 people die in care homes each year,and also,most people in these environments have serious underlying health conditions,hence the need to be in a "care" home,so they will be hit hardest during this period,also I know several people who work in care,and all to date have bemoaned the fact of having no ppe,and no testing!! I have said before (at the very beginning ) that the government were too slow in responding,and nothing has changed my mind on that today! But these continued doom and gloom topics on here,are they really needed? We are all fully aware of what's been happening,we are reminded on a daily basis 24/7 NOBODY knows what the true figures are,or will be,it's all guesswork!! You have quoted a top scientist who advises the government, saying we are not reactive enough,and we will be the worst hit in Europe, yet HE is advising the government? So that means no one in power is listening?? I mean to count deaths that were of another reason ie cancer etc,as deaths from covid,because they were showing symtoms (your words regarding catalonia and madrid ) but not even tested for the virus is misleading at best,and lies at worst.thus clouding the true figure of deaths caused by the virus,mixing them with those who have died "with" covid,but not "of it.we will probably never know the real figures,but to lump them all into one is wrong,and increases people's fears,as to the reasons for it happening? That's up to the individual to make their own mind up,on another topic,it has been reported that over 3,000 fines have been issued in the UK for covid related offences,yet in spain to date? Over 81,000 fines issued for same thing? There are morons everywhere,not just the UK, who think for whatever reason that they don't have to follow advice given.

There is no way to do a clear country v country comparison, until everyone starts testing and recording in the same way.

It's not just UK that are not include fatalities in the community and care homes, Italy arnt and Spain is allover the place too.

Once everything is counted and recorded correctly, then we can compare. Why plot a graph with adjusted figures for thr UK and ignore adjusting other counties, hints at an agenda.

The key figure is deaths per head of population, but I have now lost all confidence with any figures coming from this government.

I defended them for a while based on the figures they were publishing. If those figures were wrong then any assumptions made based on them are clearly going to be wrong too.

Despite this it does seem that we are coming out of this, first, peak. Whilst overall death figures have gone up recently because of adding in the deaths outside of hospitals the real trend is now consistently downward.

I do think that in a couple of weeks time we will be able to consider relaxing the restrictions but I have to say, I've
lost all confidence in what this government is telling me and it's ability to make the right decision at the right time. For instance allowing people to fly into this country unchecked yet not allowing residents to travel to down the road or to a second home even if they have been tested

Yes I agree with you and I think the UK needs not come out of a lockdown (partial) and should of had a proper one weeks ago.

Annis you agreed with me on one thread,now again you seem to be taking these figures as true??the figures are not being recorded correctly we both said? A large proportion of the country has been staying in,only going out when needs must,so in fact have been in a proper lockdown,my mum for instance is entering her 8th week of complete lockdown,how much longer can she cope?? She is showing signs of depression already, bless her.let's not forget 125,000 people die in care homes each year,and also,most people in these environments have serious underlying health conditions,hence the need to be in a "care" home,so they will be hit hardest during this period,also I know several people who work in care,and all to date have bemoaned the fact of having no ppe,and no testing!! I have said before (at the very beginning ) that the government were too slow in responding,and nothing has changed my mind on that today! But these continued doom and gloom topics on here,are they really needed? We are all fully aware of what's been happening,we are reminded on a daily basis 24/7 NOBODY knows what the true figures are,or will be,it's all guesswork!! You have quoted a top scientist who advises the government, saying we are not reactive enough,and we will be the worst hit in Europe, yet HE is advising the government? So that means no one in power is listening?? I mean to count deaths that were of another reason ie cancer etc,as deaths from covid,because they were showing symtoms (your words regarding catalonia and madrid ) but not even tested for the virus is misleading at best,and lies at worst.thus clouding the true figure of deaths caused by the virus,mixing them with those who have died "with" covid,but not "of it.we will probably never know the real figures,but to lump them all into one is wrong,and increases people's fears,as to the reasons for it happening? That's up to the individual to make their own mind up,on another topic,it has been reported that over 3,000 fines have been issued in the UK for covid related offences,yet in spain to date? Over 81,000 fines issued for same thing? There are morons everywhere,not just the UK, who think for whatever reason that they don't have to follow advice given.

Of course the figures are not precise from any country and I don’t believe any have been totally including the real figures , maybe the most honest country of their death toll was Italy as they wanted people of the streets immediately and a total lockdown and true figures frightened them in to it.

You can’t blame 95% of the UK public when our GOVT never game a clear precise lockdown and very weak lockdown even the police did not know how to act.

I feel the UK Govt let the old age pensioners down in many care homes and have let a lot of the NHS staff down.


But my over all impression is that the UK could of done a lot better than they have as they were one of the last countries to get the deadly virus and were being given advice from the Countries that made mistakes .

All the figures from the countries usually quoted, France, Italy, Spain are horrific. The UK is certainly no better and, likely a great deal worse than all of those.

The figure that matters has to compare rates compared to population so per 10,000 or 100,000 people. There is then the unknown of precisely how each country measures the horrific toll. Are deaths at home or in nursing homes included in the same way? Again, whichever way stats interpreted, it's gruesome and the UK does not fair well at all.

So why oh why oh why are the media and opposition parties hell bent on wanting to government to say when the lockdown will end and what will it look like? We've not really had an extreme version of lockdown and have the toll we have even without the unknowns to come out from carehomes.

And now more and more media coverage of the businesses planning to reopen. Greggs, Macdonalds, Next etc.