“ Spain v UK ‘

Phil March ( Welsh Scientist ):

I keep a couple of graphs showing Spain vs UK for Daily New Cases and Daily Deaths.

I applied a Trend Line today out of interest and attach the graphs.


Graphs do not include UK care home and home deaths

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The formula

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Wales is doing OK generally speaking people are being sensible .I truly hope we do not have to wait until the powers to be give London the all clear before we can implement the gradual removal of restrictions? Wales should decide itself. We were not pouring onto trains or flooding parks.

Unusual to see a linear trend line, normally sigmoidal for these data sets..I think the raw data is so inaccurate, its hard to present accurately. Country by country graphs tho' are generally showing the same patterns.

BREAKING

UK death toll rises by 763

A further 763 people have died with coronavirus across UK hospitals after testing positive for coronavirus as of 17:00 BST on Tuesday, government figures show.

It takes the total number to 18,100.

These figures do not include deaths in the community, in places such as care homes.

In England, daily figures show a further 665 people who tested positive for Covid-19 have died in hospitals. The NHS England update takes the total to 16,272.

In Scotland, latest figures released earlier showed the daily death toll increased by 77, taking the total number of hospital deaths to 1,062.

In Wales, another 15 hospital deaths have been reported, taking the total number to 624.

Wednesday's update has not yet been released for Northern Ireland.

To find out more on deaths in the community, tap here for England and Wales and here for Scotland.

Unusual to see a linear trend line, normally sigmoidal for these data sets..I think the raw data is so inaccurate, its hard to present accurately. Country by country graphs tho' are generally showing the same patterns.

not really.. at the moment we haven't had a period like shown for Spain on the graph { day 9 to day 21 } which was the flattening of the curve where our ICU capacity coped and theirs overloaded...

It’s plateauing out, but the spikes I think are down to the weekend reporting lags rather than any other reason for skew.If you account for population weighting then it changes. If our figures are underrepresented, again so. So it’s hard to discern much at all, apart from for the raw case rate data available.

It’s plateauing out, but the spikes I think are down to the weekend reporting lags rather than any other reason for skew.If you account for population weighting then it changes. If our figures are underrepresented, again so. So it’s hard to discern much at all, apart from for the raw case rate data available.

your correct...the data is crap and..no idea how accurate the tests are. the UK is roughly 45% bigger which is ignored by the graph ? and personally I think the covid numbers are massively over represented...eg.. the whole deaths in nursing homes thing. people seemingly cant wait to add them to the covid total but 2500 die in UK nursing homes every week normally...plus covid is rarely the only thing mentioned on death certificate..

Yes, with the weighting, Spain’s figures look bad. But if we’re under reporting, that makes it worse for us also. They could log the graphs to deal with the spikes, but with such poor data it doesn’t really matter.

I think all countries are struggling with the figures, some perhaps willingly and others because it’s almost impossible to know accurately for various reasons.
Sad innit really, as these numbers are all people.

Yes, with the weighting, Spain’s figures look bad. But if we’re under reporting, that makes it worse for us also. They could log the graphs to deal with the spikes, but with such poor data it doesn’t really matter.

I think all countries are struggling with the figures, some perhaps willingly and others because it’s almost impossible to know accurately for various reasons.
Sad innit really, as these numbers are all people.

yes it is sad.. and those in charge have to make enormous decisions .. and I don't think we are under reporting..
we have 2 lotsof counting going on.
UK office of national statistics counts all deaths as covid 19 if it was mentioned on death certificate whether they were tested or just suspected.. {the only person I know of who has died in the last coupleof weeks was one of these, her son has argued it..
and..UK department of health and social care count anyone who has tested positive for covid 19 that died that day this INCLUDES people who tested positive but died of another condition ..

Yes, with the weighting, Spain’s figures look bad. But if we’re under reporting, that makes it worse for us also. They could log the graphs to deal with the spikes, but with such poor data it doesn’t really matter.

I think all countries are struggling with the figures, some perhaps willingly and others because it’s almost impossible to know accurately for various reasons.
Sad innit really, as these numbers are all people.

yes it is sad.. and those in charge have to make enormous decisions .. and I don't think we are under reporting..
we have 2 lotsof counting going on.
UK office of national statistics counts all deaths as covid 19 if it was mentioned on death certificate whether they were tested or just suspected.. {the only person I know of who has died in the last coupleof weeks was one of these, her son has argued it..
and..UK department of health and social care count anyone who has tested positive for covid 19 that died that day this INCLUDES people who tested positive but died of another condition ..

This is also the case in Italy as I have mentioned before. The figures are not telling the whole truth imho,as you and I agree,that covid is being put on death certificates of not many,as cause of death,it is wrong to use all deaths as covid related, adding in people, as you say people who have died of other cause/s is wrong,and shouldn't be happening,testing positive at deaths door so to speak should be noted as dying WITH covid 19 present,but not OF covid 19 directly.

Yes, with the weighting, Spain’s figures look bad. But if we’re under reporting, that makes it worse for us also. They could log the graphs to deal with the spikes, but with such poor data it doesn’t really matter.

I think all countries are struggling with the figures, some perhaps willingly and others because it’s almost impossible to know accurately for various reasons.
Sad innit really, as these numbers are all people.

yes it is sad.. and those in charge have to make enormous decisions .. and I don't think we are under reporting..
we have 2 lotsof counting going on.
UK office of national statistics counts all deaths as covid 19 if it was mentioned on death certificate whether they were tested or just suspected.. {the only person I know of who has died in the last coupleof weeks was one of these, her son has argued it..
and..UK department of health and social care count anyone who has tested positive for covid 19 that died that day this INCLUDES people who tested positive but died of another condition ..

This is also the case in Italy as I have mentioned before. The figures are not telling the whole truth imho,as you and I agree,that covid is being put on death certificates of not many,as cause of death,it is wrong to use all deaths as covid related, adding in people, as you say people who have died of other cause/s is wrong,and shouldn't be happening,testing positive at deaths door so to speak should be noted as dying WITH covid 19 present,but not OF covid 19 directly.

People are still dying of other causes? No way?!! That's not allowed.

As you guys say, let's have some proper statistics:

deaths as a result of Covid - this is the golden one. We'll never know and it's a hell of a lot lower than people are thinking.

deaths with a presence of Covid, not caused by. Other pre existing conditions the main cause of death.

deaths from other causes - for a bit of perspective.

Germany is the perfect example. They trusted their medical system, it's coped (as is ours), have tested properly and as such reported accurate figures. And are rightly getting praise.

In this country we've given doctors the ok to certify death via a phone call?! FFS! Is there any wonder they don't want to add the care homes to the already overinflated statistics?!

Spanish death toll tops 22,000

Spain's virus death toll has passed the 22,000 mark in the third slight daily rise, the country's health ministry says.

Some 440 people had died from the coronavirus in the previous 24 hours, which brought total fatalities to 22,157, it added.

In English papers and the rest of Europe will follow this year / so prob next year

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The IHME predicts no more fatalities after 20th May

A study carried out by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in Seattle has produced a forecast that the first day on which no Covid-19 deaths will be recorded in Spain will be 20th May.
The IHME is compiling data regarding the coronavirus pandemic from all over the world, including not only the number of confirmed cases and fatalities but also the health service resources in each country and even each region. In the case of Spain the projection is that by Monday 27th April, when children are to be allowed out of their homes for a limited time every day, the daily death toll will have fallen to below 200, before dropping into double figures on 30th April and then, from 10th May onwards – in just over two weeks’ time – to below 10.



These targets may seem a long way off at present – the latest daily update on Wednesday, summarizing the figures for Tuesday, included 435 more fatalities – but the forecasting model has not been wildly inaccurate in comparison with the reality in Spain in recent days. On Monday the prediction was for 456 deaths while the Ministry of Health reported 399 and on Tuesday the forecast of 412 was slightly lower than the actual figure of 430, although on Wednesday the reported death toll of 435 was significantly higher than the 367 expected by the IHME.

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In English papers and the rest of Europe will follow this year / so prob next year

There is an argument that Spain would be better off allowing people from the UK (& certainly Sweden) to holiday in the Balearic Islands rather than other countries who had a more stringent lock down because of the built up immunity. If you have had the decease it is far more unlikely you will not spread it or catch it again.

Alternatively bringing in 1000's of people to the Islands from severe lock down countries could provide fertile ground for the virus. You would only need one infected person to start another epidemic locally.

Having said that I'm no expert and people who are far more qualified than me don't really know for sure what would happen.

I am not a stats guy but with any unreliable data set you need to smooth over the entry points with a rolling average, i would guess that's what the boffins are doing for their national data.

We do not have a joined up centrally controlled modern deaths, births and marriages department, they are all very local, so gathering credible data must be an impossible task. Some will be quick, relevant and accurate whilst other may be a best guess and late.

There are about 200 health boards in England & Wales, which i guess would be linked centrally so hospital admissions would be the only accurate real time data set they (government advisors) would have. I believe that is going down, so that is good news.

UK coronavirus deaths rise by 616

A total of 18,738 patients have died in hospital after testing positive for coronavirus in the UK as of 17:00 BST on Wednesday, the Department of Health says, up by 616 from the previous day.

The figures do not include those who died in care homes or in the community.

Spain daily deaths lowest for a month

Some promising news from Spain, where the number of new coronavirus-related deaths has dropped to the lowest daily level in over a month.

Some 367 people have died in the past 24 hours to take the total fatalities there to 22,524 - which remains the third-highest in the world.

The number of new coronavirus cases has risen by 6,740 to 219,764.

Coronavirus death toll slows in Spain

Spain’s coronavirus death toll rose to 22,902 on Saturday, but the increase of 378 was only slightly up on Friday’s 367, the lowest recorded figure in the past month.

The overall number of cases rose to 223,759 from 219,764 the day before, Spanish media reported.

In Russia, there have been 66 more fatalities bringing the total to 681 from 74,588 confirmed infections, with 5,966 new cases.

New infections dropped for the second day running in Germany, where 5,500 people have died. The number of cases rose by 2,055 to 152,438.

A total of 5,650 deaths, up by 67, have been confirmed in Iran, where 89,328 people have been diagnosed with the virus.

UK is fifth country in Europe to top 20,000 deaths

The UK has become the fifth country to pass 20,000 deaths in hospital from Covid-19, behind the US, Italy, Spain and France.

The US hit the 20,000 mark on April 11, according to data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

Italy reached 20,000 on April 13, Spain on April 18 and France on April 20.

The figures for each country are problematic to compare as each government has its own counting criteria.

Instead, Saturday's figures can be seen as a symbolic milestone, as it proves the Government has definitively missed its best case scenario of deaths of 20,000 or below.

In reality, deaths in the UK from coronavirus probably topped 20,000 several days ago.

The figure does not include deaths in care homes, which the World Health Organisation (WHO) estimates could account for half of all deaths in Europe.

16,411 patients remain in hospital with Covid-19

Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, begins today's press briefing by providing an update on the national figures.

Total UK deaths: 20,319
813 in the last 24 hours.
640,792 tests have been carried out, 28,760 tests conducted Friday.
148,377 tested positive
16,411 are currently in hospital with coronavirus, down from 17,049 from yesterday.
She adds: "As the deaths caused by this terrible virus pass another tragic and terrible milestone, the entire nation is grieving. My deepest sympathies and condolences go to those who have lost loved ones.

"I would like to pay tribute to the selfless front line workers who have been struck down by this virus."

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Spain to allow outdoor exercise if cases continue to fall

People will be allowed out to exercise from May 2 if the number of new coronavirus cases continues to fall, Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said today.

Mr Sanchez said people would be allowed outside for sport or to go for a walk with a person with whom they live, if the evolution of the pandemic "remains favourable".

Spaniards have been living under one of Europe's strictest lockdowns since March 14. They are allowed out for food, medicine and essential work but not to exercise.

Spain records lowest daily death toll in over a month

Spain has reported its lowest daily death toll since 20 March, with 288 fatalities.

The figure is a steep drop from the 378 deaths recorded on Saturday.

The health ministry said the total number of fatalities now stood at 23,190.

Fernando Simon, director of the Spanish Health Alert and Emergency Co-ordination Centre said: “For the first time in a long time, we are below 300.

"Although it may be hard to give these statistics, it's a figure which indicates a clear, positive direction in the evolution of the epidemic."

On Sunday, Spain allowed children under the age of 14 to leave their homes for the first time in six weeks. Lockdown rules had banned them from leaving the house. They are now allowed outside for one hour a day between 09:00 and 21:00.

Further 413 die in lowest daily rise since the end of March

George Eustice, the Environment Secretary, said 413 people are reported to have died of coronavirus in UK hospital in the last 24 hours, taking the UK’s total to 20,732.

This is the lowest daily rise since the end of March.

Eustice said 29,058 tests were completed on Saturday - still way behind the target of 100,000. He said the number of hospital admissions had fallen to 15,953.

War we would win.

Football Spain.

Rugby UK.

Cricket UK.

Tennis Spain.

Any other sports?

War we would win.

Football Spain.

Rugby UK.

Cricket UK.

Tennis Spain.

Any other sports?

That made me laugh Neil FairPlay

Weather Wales lose

Weather Wales lose

Very true