' The Championship state of play '

The Championship state of play, the results Cardiff City and Swansea City need to make play-offs and what's in their favour when football returns

Here's what the Bluebirds and Swans need to do to secure a top six place when football resumes, with Leeds United, West Brom and Nottingham Forest amongst the others chasing the Premier League dream


By Ian Mitchelmore

Wednesday 8th April 2020




It's already been more than a month since Cardiff City and Swansea City last took to the field.

The Bluebirds have not played since securing a 2-0 win over Barnsley at Oakwell on March 7, with Swansea holding promotion favourites West Brom to a goalless draw at the Liberty Stadium on the same day.

It remains to be seen when the 2019/20 season will resume, but there will be plenty at stake for the two Welsh clubs when the action returns.

WHAT'S HAPPENED TO DATE

Each of the Championship's 24 sides have played 37 of their 46 games so far, meaning there are nine rounds of matches still to be played.

At the time of the league's postponement due to the coronavirus pandemic, the Bluebirds and the Swans were firmly in the mix for a play-off spot.

Neil Harris' men are currently ninth, just two points behind sixth-placed Preston. Steve Cooper's troops are 11th and one point behind their South Wales rivals.

The running order of the top six reads as follows: Leeds 71 points, West Brom 70, Fulham 64, Brentford 60, Nottingham Forest 60, Preston 56.

Then come Bristol City on 55, Millwall and Cardiff on 54 and Blackburn and Swansea on 53.

Any one of those play-off chasing sides will fancy their chances.






SO WHAT POINTS TALLY DO BLUEBIRDS AND SWANS NEED?


In 15 seasons of the Championship in its current guise, the average points tally for a side finishing in the final play-off spot is 74. Or, to be precise, 73.925.

There was one season when Fulham had 80 points, in the 2016/17 campaign, which is the highest achieved by the side in sixth place.

At the opposite end of the scale, Leicester City's tally of 68 points was the lowest figure that proved enough to take the final play-off place, in their case at the end of the 2012/13 campaign.

There are still 27 points left to play for when play resumes.

Nothing is completely scientific, but it should mean another 20 points for Cardiff from their final nine league games should be enough, with Swansea requiring 21.

IS THAT FEASIBLE GIVEN THE REMAINING GAMES?

That certainly seems like a tall order for the Bluebirds and Swans.

The advantage for Cardiff is they will meet teams in the shake-up with them - Preston, Bristol City, Blackburn, Fulham.

So their fate is in their own hands, so to speak.

Harris' side also wind up with a home match against Hull. If they need three points from that one to clinch it in front of a huge Cardiff City Stadium crowd, the Bluebirds should certainly prevail.

The Swans also meet sides chasing promotion - Birmingham, Forest and Bristol City. Their final match is at Reading, who will probably have nothing to play for. So that should benefit Cooper's side, if they can take it to the wire.

As we say though, the final figure can't be viewed as scientific - particularly in this strange season.

The Championship, of course, is a notoriously competitive and unpredictable division, with teams consistently taking points from each other, regardless of league position.


Remaining fixtures

Cardiff City : Leeds (H), Preston (A), Charlton (H), Bristol City (A), Blackburn (H), Fulham (A), Derby (H), Middlesbrough (A), Hull (H).

Swansea City: Middlesbrough (A), Luton (H), Millwall (A), Sheffield Wednesday (H), Birmingham (A), Leeds (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Bristol City (H), Reading (A).

ANYTHING ELSE FOR THE BLUEBIRDS?

Yes. Cardiff actually are one of the teams who could benefit from the season being suspended.

On two fronts.

One, will be the return to fitness of Lee Tomlin and Nathaniel Mendez-Laing. Every side's injured stars can get fit again, of course, but few players anywhere in the country are quite as influential on any one team as Tomlin is with the Bluebirds.

He is very much their talisman, the creator and goalscorer, and when news broke he was out for the season with a knee injury many Bluebirds fans felt their promotion hopes went with it.

Suddenly the Magic Man will be back to sprinkle his stardust, and he'll probably be supported by Mendez-Laing whose power and pace on the flank will be a massive bonus.

The other significant thing in the Bluebirds' favour is their big squad. if games are crammed into a tiny window to finish the season quickly, possibly as short as three weeks, Harris will have the luxury of being able to mix and match.

For example, he could rotate any two of Mendez-Laing, Albert Adomah, Junior Hoilett and Josh Murphy on the flanks.

Or any two from Joe Ralls, Will Vaulks, Marlon Pack and Leandro Bacuna as midfield back-up behind Tomlin.

With games coming thick and fast, that freshness match to match will be key - and not every team in the division has the Bluebirds' resources.

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AND THE SWANS?

Swansea are in a similar position when it comes to injuries, something that will affect everyone in the league.

Mike van der Hoorn and George Byers are currently sidelined with knee and ankle injuries respectively, but both should be fit when play does eventually resume.

Joe Rodon only played a handful of matches after recovering from a long lay-off, so the postponement of football gives him - along with the likes of Jordon Garrick and Aldo Kalulu - more time to fully recover from issues they've suffered this term.

Depending on how things pan out on contracts, Swansea could yet lose some of their six loan stars which would represent a real blow.

It remains to be seen what exactly will happen, although FIFA have proposed that those out of contract this summer should have their temporary deals extended until the end of the 2019/20 season.

Then there's the situation regarding the likes of Andre Ayew who may well have to be sold this summer as the club continue to adjust to life in the second tier.

The Swans' top scorer will look to continue his impressive campaign, and a top run of form will drive his price tag up, as well as bolstering Swansea's play-off hopes.




PREDICTION TIME

An upturn in fortunes under Harris has really given the Cardiff faithful hope that a top six spot is a real possibility.

The Bluebirds are a different animal with Tomlin in the side, so with the talismanic No. 10 involved Cardiff can be hopeful of launching a serious assault on the play-offs when play returns.

As for Swansea, they have a brutal run of fixtures prior to their final day clash with Reading at the Madejski Stadium.

They're right in the mix with 80% of the campaign gone, but realistically, they'll need to win a hefty chunk of their remaining games.

To be honest annis imho I think the season is over the longer this pandemic goes on

ill be honest i hope they finish the aeason in some way because in footballing ways its the only fair way to do it but at the same time i dont really care, more important things happening atm.

To be honest annis imho I think the season is over the longer this pandemic goes on

THIS, and it wouldn't surprise me if the next thing that happens is the Scottish Premier League declare this season null and void, will the Premier League and EFL follow their lead?