Coronavirus: Why are the Gwent valleys a hotspot?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52093126

IMHO there are two reasons why the Gwent valleys are a hot spot.
1) The weekend when the Wales v Scotland rugby was called off and all the football was called off, there were two concerts on the Saturday and Sunday in the Motorpoint Arena. Both were the Steriophonics who have a very large following in the Gwent Valleys.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/whats-on/ ... 9-17924597
2) The Gwent valleys still has a lot of industrial sites and as people live in the valleys temperature inversions can result in polluted air being unable to escape. Wuhan, N.Italy and Spain all have poor air quality which may be a factor in these hot spots.

The extract below is copied from my post from viewtopic.php?f=2&t=213789 from Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:47 pm

Northern Italy has very high levels of air pollution from industrial sources, similar to Wuhan.

“For Italy, especially the northern part of Italy, the air pollution comes from emissions of the industry and transport. In the winter season, the weather conditions are very unfavorable due to temperature inversion that prevents the air pollution from dispersing in the higher layers of the atmosphere.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/emanuelaba ... 71c3358fde

Spain is also seeing a higher level of mortality with COVID-19, which could be explained by the higher levels of air pollution.

15 million Spaniards are breathing air the EU considers polluted
https://english.elpais.com/elpais/2018/ ... 14634.html

Wales' most polluted street - where residents wish their homes would be torn down

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wale ... s-16372961

Toxic waste incinerator closes

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/1902269.stm

This plant churned out toxic chemical emissions for years before it was closed down, which could have caused lung damage to many in the area.

Probably because it arrived and spread there earlier before the government sanctions, you could be right about the concert too that should have been cancelled.
Now it's in the community they need to be extra vigilant with the measures if everyone thought that every time they came into contact with someone else they could be killed by them, we would stop it in a month.

Shopping seems to be the most likely spreaders at the moment, maybe tighter measures are needed?

Probably because it arrived and spread there earlier before the government sanctions, you could be right about the concert too that should have been cancelled.
Now it's in the community they need to be extra vigilant with the measures if everyone thought that every time they came into contact with someone else they could be killed by them, we would stop it in a month.

Shopping seems to be the most likely spreaders at the moment, maybe tighter measures are needed?

Read my post about how they go shopping in Taiwan. Hand sanitation stations, then thermal body heat reader before entering the store. There are strict quarantine rules with £30k fines and the result is 348 cases, 5 deaths despite being one of the first countries to be infected. They warned the WHO in December that there was a virus in the PRC that was spreading human to human, but because nobody wanted to upset China 3 weeks preparation was lost.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=213789

I read somewhere its tracking west-literally moving down the M4.

I read somewhere its tracking west-literally moving down the M4.

I read that as well along with a bunch of other reasons / guesses from our medical experts and politicians so I checked it out on virus tracker... the areas along the M4 between west London and Gwent have nothing like the cases .
people are doing their best to make reason of something that's new.. so difficult ..

I read somewhere its tracking west-literally moving down the M4.

I read that as well along with a bunch of other reasons / guesses from our medical experts and politicians so I checked it out on virus tracker... the areas along the M4 between west London and Gwent have nothing like the cases .
people are doing their best to make reason of something that's new.. so difficult ..

IMHO they don't want to admit that they made a mistake by letting the two Steriophonics concerts take place.

I read somewhere its tracking west-literally moving down the M4.

I read that as well along with a bunch of other reasons / guesses from our medical experts and politicians so I checked it out on virus tracker... the areas along the M4 between west London and Gwent have nothing like the cases .
people are doing their best to make reason of something that's new.. so difficult ..

IMHO they don't want to admit that they made a mistake by letting the two Steriophonics concerts take place.

IMHO a lot of people don't want to admit that they should have taken this more seriously sooner.

It's pretty poor journalism really.Gwent no longer exists as a County council.
The Aneurin Bevan University Health Board covers the areas of Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Monmouthshire, Newport, Torfaen and South Powys.A large area indeed .They should breakdown the figures for these councils.Now that would be informative.

I read somewhere its tracking west-literally moving down the M4.

Not sure about that theory, why aren’t the other towns/city’s on the M4 corridor at the same level as Gwent ?

I read somewhere its tracking west-literally moving down the M4.

I read that as well along with a bunch of other reasons / guesses from our medical experts and politicians so I checked it out on virus tracker... the areas along the M4 between west London and Gwent have nothing like the cases .
people are doing their best to make reason of something that's new.. so difficult ..

IMHO they don't want to admit that they made a mistake by letting the two Steriophonics concerts take place.

thing is there were big events all over Europe during the early days of the virus plus millions abroad. and the hot spots do not all match up with the events...

I feel there's alot of validity in the original post. I worked in cardiff on the Scotland game date and some key pubs were rammed. I posted previously about pubs and garages with bars in still operating with North gwent prevelent. Lots coming out now re infections following Cheltenham I totally disregard the nearness to the m4 theory if that were true why are the west country rates so low? Sorry its down to our own people's denial of the facts. We are always a bit slow here due to our zest fora drink. Hopefully by now the penny will have dropped

I read somewhere its tracking west-literally moving down the M4.

I read that as well along with a bunch of other reasons / guesses from our medical experts and politicians so I checked it out on virus tracker... the areas along the M4 between west London and Gwent have nothing like the cases .
people are doing their best to make reason of something that's new.. so difficult ..

IMHO they don't want to admit that they made a mistake by letting the two Steriophonics concerts take place.

thing is there were big events all over Europe during the early days of the virus plus millions abroad. and the hot spots do not all match up with the events...

Everything was being cancelled in the week up to the Steriophonics concerts. All football and rugby was cancelled and the only large event still taking place was the Wales v Scotland rugby, which didn't get cancelled until the fans had already travelled. The difference with the two concerts was that they were all in close contact in one arena for hours together and they were mainly from the Gwent valleys.

More detail on the coronavirus pandemic has been published from Public Health Wales.

It gives more of an insight into how coronavirus is progressing - and, for the first time, how it breaks down by council area.

We've known about the hotspot in the Aneurin Bevan health board area of south east Wales. When this is drilled down further, it shows Newport has more positive cases proportionately by far than any other area of Wales.

To date, it has more than 277 cases per 100,000 of its resident population. In total cases, this is 425 so far.

The Newport rate is far higher than the proportion anywhere else - including Cardiff, which is second out of 22 local authority areas on 187.8 cases per 100,000.

Apart from Swansea, all the top 10 are in south east Wales.

The lowest proportion in Wales is in Conwy county, with 19.6 cases per 100,000.

When you look at the age profile of cases across Wales, 23% were people aged between 20 and 40. Nearly 37% are between 40 and 60.

Coronavirus: Why are the Gwent valleys a hotspot?
Why have Newport and the Gwent valleys become a "hotspot" for coronavirus?

Aneurin Bevan University Health Board, which is responsible for running hospital and NHS services in the area, is fast becoming the frontline in Wales' fight against the pandemic.

Questions are being asked about why one part of the country is dealing with high numbers of patients.

Here we try to set out what we know so far.

What is the issue?
Almost half the confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Wales have been at Aneurin Bevan University Health Board, even though it only has around a fifth of the total population.

Public health officials in the Gwent valleys said they were seeing increasing numbers of people being admitted to hospitals, as well as the number of people needing intensive care and "sadly an increasing number of people dying".

Health minister Vaughan Gething, First Minister Mark Drakeford, Dr Sarah Aitken of Aneurin Bevan HB and chief medical officer Dr Frank Atherton
The area covers the city of Newport, old industrial areas Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly and the Rhymney valley, largely rural Monmouthshire and Torfaen, which includes towns like Cwmbran and Pontypool. That's more than 591,000 people.

The health board employs 14,000 staff, including 1,000 doctors and 6,000 nurses, midwives, other professionals and community workers.

Could it be down to testing?
We know that Aneurin Bevan started testing its staff for coronavirus earlier than other Welsh health boards.

It came after a member of staff developed symptoms.

Dr Sarah Aitken, Aneurin Bevan's director of public health, told BBC Wales it had been testing workers in "critical areas".

"We were the first health board to do that and that certainly did give us an indication that our staff were being exposed to patients in different areas of the board's geography," she said.

First Minister Mark Drakeford says the "hotspot" can partly be explained by this staff member contracting the disease.

He said this meant earlier and more widespread testing than in other parts of Wales.

"It looks like there's more there because we've tested more people than elsewhere," he added.

But he said that was "part of the story of the Gwent outbreak" - and by no means all of it.

Chief medical officer Dr Frank Atherton has also claimed that "there has been a lot more testing" in the area and therefore the increase in the number of cases identified was a "natural consequence".

Is it because the area is on the border with England?
In recent days both the health board and Welsh Government have suggested its proximity to England, and the focal point of the UK's outbreak in London, have been factors.

Dr Sarah Aitken said she "had always thought it was likely we would be the first part of Wales to start to see the increase" for that reason.

"There could be a number of theories about why we are seeing more than elsewhere but I think the most likely is because the coronavirus has spread from London in a ripple - and we're the nearest part of Wales to London," she said.

Mr Drakeford has also said that "there is evidence that the disease is moving east to west across the UK and Newport is right at the eastern end of Wales".

While Dr Atherton has suggested there could be link to the London commute along the M4.

It has been pointed out, however, that several local authorities and large cities closer to London have seen lower numbers of confirmed cases so far.

Though not directly comparable - at time of writing, Surrey has 331 cases, Reading 27 cases and Bristol 78. Aneurin Bevan now has 564.

Meanwhile, other hotspots so far include Birmingham, Hampshire and Sheffield - away from London.

What about demographics?
Life expectancy is slightly below the Welsh average - but for those expecting a healthy life, it dips in more deprived areas like Blaenau Gwent (an average age of 74, compared to 81 in Wales as a whole).

Much of the valleys areas are relatively densely populated and 20% of people are over 65, but this is about the same as the Welsh average.

Dr Aitken pointed out that the "demographics of this health board are not really very different to some of the neighbouring ones".

But the Welsh Government says it believes the make-up of Wales' population could be problematic as the virus spreads.

Health Minister Vaughan Gething told a news conference recently that one of his biggest concerns was "that we potentially have a larger impact in Wales because Wales compared with other UK nations is typically older, sicker and poorer".

"On every other public health indicator it means there is more challenge," he added.

Are there other issues which have been raised?
BBC Wales has spoken to one family with particular concerns about the Royal Gwent Hospital in Newport.

They allege their elderly relative contracted the virus while being treated for a separate issue at the site and have raised questions about the measures in place to protect patients there.

It follows the death of 80-year-old Marita Edwards, whose family also say she caught the disease at the Royal Gwent.

She's reported to be the first person in Wales to die after catching the virus in hospital though it is not known how many other cases there have been like this.

The health board says there are strict infection control procedures in place at its hospitals.

Mr Drakeford said at his latest briefing: "Chance is playing its part as well."

He believes that there is some degree of randomness about the way in which these hotspots emerge.

Meanwhile, Blaenau Gwent AM Alun Davies wrote to the first minister saying "robust enforcement" must be taken against employers who are "openly flouting social distancing and lockdown instructions".

Is this just the start of the virus's spread across Wales?
This is what the Welsh Government and its advisers believe - and that the area won't be an outlier for long.

In fact, the latest figures on tests show that the proportion of total cases in Aneurin Bevan, as more people have been hospitalised elsewhere, has dropped to 39%.

For the last three days, Aneurin Bevan has not been top of the list of Welsh health boards with most new cases either.

Mr Gething said: "There is a particular cluster within the Gwent area but we don't think that this is going to be the way that disease transmission works throughout the whole outbreak.

"We're pretty confident unfortunately that the community transmission that is taking place will be seen in other parts of the UK and other parts of Wales."

Dr Atherton added that it was "a complex issue".

"But the underlying message is that the virus is circulating widely in all parts of Wales.

"At the moment it may be circulating to a higher degree in south Wales than the rest of Wales, but that may change over time - it's a very fluid, dynamic situation that we need to keep a watch on."

Why don't we know how many people have died so far in the area?
Geographical details of fatal cases from coronavirus aren't being released by Public Health Wales yet because numbers are still small - and, it says, to protect patient confidentiality. It did release locations for the first few deaths.

But for now, public health bodies are acting in unison and only releasing the breakdown on a nations and English regions basis.

What has the impact been?

Media caption"The pattern in Gwent is the same seen in Italy," Dr Aitken said last week
In a video on social media last week, Dr Aitken warned that there was a risk the NHS system in the ABUHB area would be "overwhelmed" if people did not follow government instruction to stay at home.

"We're seeing a rapidly rising increase in number of cases in all our communities and a daily increase in the number of people being admitted to hospital and the number of people dying from the virus," she said.

"The pattern we're seeing in Gwent is the same as was seen in Italy where their healthcare system is overwhelmed."

Wales 'uniquely at risk' with lack of ICU beds
Is the UK testing enough people?
Is the NHS ready for the surge in cases?
A consultant surgeon at the Royal Gwent Hospital in Newport told BBC Wales all surgery there had already been affected.

Mr Gethin Williams said the hospital had become a hotspot for Covid-19 and that operating theatres had been changed into makeshift intensive care units in anticipation of the predicted overflow.

He also said intensive care was full and they could not ventilate any more people there.

Before this crisis even kicked off, it had been recommended that Aneurin Bevan needed seven more intensive care beds just to keep up with normal demand as it grows.

How will they cope?
Dr Aitken said if the virus peaked over the next three weeks as some government advisers had predicted then the health board should be able to cope.

"We will need to open all the new hospital beds that we're planning to open and do things very differently," she said.

Some 350 beds are being made available at the new Grange University Hospital near Llanfrechfa, which had been set to open next year.

And urgent calls have been made on social media for temporary staff to join the NHS workforce locally.

She emphasised that it was vital people heeded government advice to stay at home in order to slow the spread of the virus.

"Slowing the spread down and meaning it does peak over the next three weeks is going to be the difference between us being able to provide care for all those people who need it, and potentially not being able to and therefore it will save many lives," she added.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52093126

Probably because it arrived and spread there earlier before the government sanctions, you could be right about the concert too that should have been cancelled.
Now it's in the community they need to be extra vigilant with the measures if everyone thought that every time they came into contact with someone else they could be killed by them, we would stop it in a month.

Shopping seems to be the most likely spreaders at the moment, maybe tighter measures are needed?

Still this, plus a lot of the people there travel for work to Cardiff and Bristol, picking up some cases and bringing it back, and there were concerts and Rugby fans in the pubs, and Cheltenham and because it spread quickly and took a strong foothold before social distancing was stepped up!

I read somewhere its tracking west-literally moving down the M4.

I read that as well along with a bunch of other reasons / guesses from our medical experts and politicians so I checked it out on virus tracker... the areas along the M4 between west London and Gwent have nothing like the cases .
people are doing their best to make reason of something that's new.. so difficult ..

IMHO they don't want to admit that they made a mistake by letting the two Steriophonics concerts take place.

thing is there were big events all over Europe during the early days of the virus plus millions abroad. and the hot spots do not all match up with the events...

Everything was being cancelled in the week up to the Steriophonics concerts. All football and rugby was cancelled and the only large event still taking place was the Wales v Scotland rugby, which didn't get cancelled until the fans had already travelled. The difference with the two concerts was that they were all in close contact in one arena for hours together and they were mainly from the Gwent valleys.

I don’t agree on this point- huge fan numbers everywhere and the Gwent Valleys, where I live, do not have the fab numbers to match Cardiff for example. Personally I think this is guessing at best.

Fact is no one actually knows why our Health Board has the highest number of cases - as another poster says the Board covers a very large area not just the valleys.

Another possibility gwent dragons played Benetton from northern Italy the week before the international and the Italian side must have brought supporters.

Another possibility gwent dragons played Benetton from northern Italy the week before the international and the Italian side must have brought supporters.

Not trying to be funny here but are there ever many away supporters at club rugby games that aren't local games?

Do many Gwent Dragons fans travel to Italy or Scotland or France to see their teams play in whatever league it happens to be?

I have no idea. Do they even publicise how many away fans are present at a match? Probably not because of the lack of segregation that exists at football games.

I read somewhere its tracking west-literally moving down the M4.

I read that as well along with a bunch of other reasons / guesses from our medical experts and politicians so I checked it out on virus tracker... the areas along the M4 between west London and Gwent have nothing like the cases .
people are doing their best to make reason of something that's new.. so difficult ..

IMHO they don't want to admit that they made a mistake by letting the two Steriophonics concerts take place.

thing is there were big events all over Europe during the early days of the virus plus millions abroad. and the hot spots do not all match up with the events...

Everything was being cancelled in the week up to the Steriophonics concerts. All football and rugby was cancelled and the only large event still taking place was the Wales v Scotland rugby, which didn't get cancelled until the fans had already travelled. The difference with the two concerts was that they were all in close contact in one arena for hours together and they were mainly from the Gwent valleys.

I don’t agree on this point- huge fan numbers everywhere and the Gwent Valleys, where I live, do not have the fab numbers to match Cardiff for example. Personally I think this is guessing at best.

Fact is no one actually knows why our Health Board has the highest number of cases - as another poster says the Board covers a very large area not just the valleys.

Cardiff might have as many fans (possibly more) of the Steriophonics and the number of cases in Cardiff are the second highest after the Gwent Valleys. However, despite the population being more densely concentrated in Cardiff, Gwent has a higher percentage of cases per population size (numbers per 100k people in link below). The Gwent valleys have poor air quality as previously mentioned, which IMHO is the reason for the hot spot (see the Guardian link). Furthermore, other countries with poor air quality like Belgium, Spain, Indonesia,The Philippines, and Italy, especially the North have also got higher figures (see thread on COVID-19 and air pollution). Therefore,IMHO while Cardiff may have had similar or even more exposure from the concerts, the higher percentages in Gwent reflect the additional poor air quality of the region.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51888681
https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... tudy-finds
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=214169

Air pollution linked to raised Covid-19 death risk

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52351290

Highest number of deaths remains in Aneurin Bevan health board

The highest number of deaths remains in the Aneurin Bevan University Health Board area, where 207 people are known to have died with coronavirus.

Seven deaths were reported in the area, which treats patients from Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Newport, Torfaen and Monmouthshire, on Tuesday.

In the Cardiff and Vale health board area, 139 people have died while 141 have died in the Cwm Taf Morgannwg health board area.

In the Swansea Bay health board area, 109 people have died.

Figures for Betsi Cadwaladr University Health Board, Hywel Dda and Powys health boards, have not been set out in order to protect the identity of those who have died, due to the figures being small, Public Health Wales said.

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A nursing home has seen the "catastrophic" death of 15 residents in a month, its manager has said.

Fourteen of the 73 elderly residents at Tregwilym Lodge, Rogerstone, Newport had symptoms of Covid-19, but none of them were tested.

The home's general manager, Karen Healey, said one or two residents out would be expected to die in a typical month.

She said: "The profound loss and the numbers we've been dealing with - and the families - has been absolutely unbelievable.

"We've never seen anything like it where we've lost so many so quickly."

The Welsh Government said its policy was now to test all care home residents with coronavirus symptoms.

Air pollution linked to raised Covid-19 death risk

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52351290

It's just that the area had more cases before lockdown, so it obviously spreads quicker, there are more polluted areas with lower case numbers.

Air pollution linked to raised Covid-19 death risk

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52351290

It's just that the area had more cases before lockdown, so it obviously spreads quicker, there are more polluted areas with lower case numbers.

While exposure to the virus is the primary factor for getting the virus, there are other factors which are relevant to the spread and the number of deaths. Population density; procedures in place like quarantine, testing regimes, lock downs etc; long term air pollution which damages the alveoli; population demographics, as countries with a greater percentage of older people will suffer more deaths; and vaccination with the BCG, which appears to reduce the chances of getting COVID-19 sixfold; all these factors seem to have an effect on the numbers. There is also the possibility of a synergistic effect.

Air pollution linked to raised Covid-19 death risk

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52351290

It's just that the area had more cases before lockdown, so it obviously spreads quicker, there are more polluted areas with lower case numbers.

While exposure to the virus is the primary factor for getting the virus, there are other factors which are relevant to the spread and the number of deaths. Population density; procedures in place like quarantine, testing regimes, lock downs etc; long term air pollution which damages the alveoli; population demographics, as countries with a greater percentage of older people will suffer more deaths; and vaccination with the BCG, which appears to reduce the chances of getting COVID-19 sixfold; all these factors seem to have an effect on the numbers. There is also the possibility of a synergistic effect.

The possibility of groups cooperating to boost their chances of success will need a firm Government push!

It is almost five weeks since strict rules were announced to limit the spread of coronavirus which will continue into May.

Police say the message is now so clear that individuals who are outside for reasons other than those permitted in the guidelines would face "greater enforcement activity", including a fixed penalty notice of £60.

Among the excuses given to Gwent Police officers were:

"My son is a rubbish cook so I take him food every day"
"I've just been to feed the fish"
"I've been to buy nail clippers for the dog"
"I've bought a new catapult and wanted to try it out"
"I don't watch the news - what's going on?"
"I'm taking my mate into Newport to buy drugs"
"I am taking my quad bike for a walk and I promise I am not going ride it around a field"
"I thought I heard someone may be in trouble, so I came to have a look but I don't know their name or remember the person who told me it".

Gwent Deputy Chief Constable Amanda Blakeman said: "We understand this is a difficult time for all people.

"The vast majority of our communities are adhering to the guidance and we are grateful for the real difference they are making.

"A small minority are continuing to go against these guidelines."