Taiwan and COVID-19

The following posts show how Taiwan which first had the virus back in December has had so few cases and deaths.

Posted by Looed on the FRR bb yesterday :-

I was in the UK last week and now in mandatory quarantine now that I am back in Asia . I felt I lived CV twice - I was in Asia when it first hit and then in the UK when things started to accelerate.

The day before I flew to the UK I went to a department store to buy some bread from the in-house supermarket. To enter, I had to attend the hand sanitation station and then pass the thermal body heat reader. There where zero checks when I landed in London. Even the folks at passport control weren't wearing gloves. When I left there I saw a few new signs in the airport pointing to the toilets so you could wash your hands.

Before I left the UK I pre-applied for quarantine which means I allow the authorities to geo-lock my phone so they can track my movements. Its an immediate 30,000 pound fine if you break quarantine. On landing I got a QR code so I could fast-track formalities. I was given a daily health record sheet, sprayed head to toe, luggage included, in alcohol spray so I can take a quarantine taxi (that gets sterilised between each journey) to go home. There are currently about 40,000 people in various stages of quarantine here, but we are all called at least once a day to check we are OK and ask if any symptoms etc. Counsellors are available at any time for those struggling with the mental effects of quarantine. Any one with symptoms is immediately taken to hospital for testing. This system means that there hasn't been (to date) any lockdown / social distancing measures and life goes on pretty much as normal. We know if the numbers of infected increase, or if we have community outbreak, that might change. Almost all recent cases are imported, especially from Europe, which is why I need to quarantine.

The Govt here say they have been preparing for this for 17 years after the devastation caused by SARS, so they have been very quick to act and very clear on messaging. I was living in HKG during the SARS crisis and I recall it as more scary than this. I hope the UK can cherry-pick what is working in other parts of the world as it develops it policies and practices.

I usually get back to the UK around March / April and September / October - always the time for colds, flu's, allergies etc. I really noticed this time how ordinary it is for us to cough / sneeze / splutter into the air. One guy coughed right in my face - not on purpose, we just crossed each other as he coughed. I did see a couple of people wearing face masks in a city I visited, and I estimate about 10% of the people at the airport had a mask on as I left. Wearing face masks has been common practice in Asia for many years and I did wonder if the UK might move to ask people who have colds etc to wear masks to prevent the spread of germs to the elderly, infirm etc. who are vulnerable to CV and other life threatening illnesses.

Posted by RogerA on the FRR bb yesterday :-

Unfortunately masks are not widely available. My wife is a community nurse and there are no masks for her. Diabilical!

Posted by Looed on the FRR bb yesterday :-

RogerA - agree that is not good. I don't know if its happened elsewhere, but here the Govt nationalised face mask production to prevent hoarding, price hikes and to ensure front line staff as well as those most in need could get access. Doctors, nurses, the young and the infirm get unlimited access to masks. The rest of us can buy 5 masks a week at about 13 pence a mask. The day we can buy depends on the last digit of our ID card. There is a national database to ensure we only buy up to our weekly ration. It's not a direct comparison but its as though the Govt took over the pharmacy at Boots and made them mask distribution points. We have an app that shows real time stock levels at each "Boots" so you don't waste time going to pharmacies that don't have stock. Last week they launched online sales so we can order in advance and pick up from the local convenience store (if anyone has ever been to Taiwan or Japan you will know there is a 7-11 type store on every street corner.). They hope this means they can better plan mask production and be able to start exporting overseas as Taiwan was the worlds 2nd largest supplier of face masks. I really hope some can make it to the UK as soon as possible.

Posted by Looed on the FRR bb earlier today :-

I am not sure if the UK has a similar body, but here all policy, daily press conferences, updates on numbers etc are handled by The CECC (Central Epidemic Command Center). Our two political parties who would traditionally be attacking each other on policy have ceased bickering and let the CECC be front and centre on medical matters. CECC daily updates tend to be clear and concise i.e. https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/Deta ... typeid=158

The National / Local Govt make announcements relating to economic and legal matters surrounding the virus, leaving medical matters to the experts.

IMHO Taiwan is far better prepared for COVID-19 due to their experience of the SARS virus 17 years ago.

Surely the WHO should have been implementing procedures like those in Taiwan around the world. Those procedures would reduce the chances of a pandemic and the subsequent economic fallout. There have been other warnings since SARS, with MERS, Swine Flu, Bird Flu and Ebola, yet most of the world with the exception of a few countries in the Far East seem ill prepared.

Posted by Looed on the FRR bb earlier today :-
Funny you mention the WHO as I was thinking of sharing an article on Taiwan and the WHO.

Taiwan is denied membership of the WHO as most governments and global bodies do not recognise Taiwan as a sovereign state. So Taiwan had to adopt a 'go-it-alone' approach. Taiwan did try to alert the WHO about a new human to human virus end Dec '19 but Mainland China denied such a virus existed. The WHO took no action and the world lost about 3 weeks until China finally revealed news on the virus. You can read more here - https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3904054

In that crucial 3 week period Taiwan halted flights from parts of Mainland China and monitored visitors from affected regions. Though Taiwan was one of the first places to be infected outside of the Mainland, to date there are 230 cases and 2 deaths. There has been a large increase in the past 10 days or so as many people return from overseas carrying the virus with them, so that number is likely to increase.

The treatment of Taiwan by the WHO has resulted in a petition to remove the head of the WHO and include Taiwan which has so far received over 500,000 signatures - https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3904702 It won't happen, but many countries do now look to Taiwan (and Singapore) for ideas and guidance.

Taiwan recently donated 100,00 face masks pert week to the USA. China bitterly complained, claiming that acceptance of these masks would spark a diplomatic crisis as this would imply Taiwan existed and would be an "affront to the Motherland". They urge the USA not to accept the medical supplies. https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3904112

Coronavirus: In Taiwan, there is no need for a lockdown because everyone is playing their part
It seems the UK is waiting for an enforced 'lockdown' before they’ll truly stay at home

By Ailsa Goodliff
Friday, 20th March 2020, 1:17 pm
Updated
Friday, 20th March 2020, 1:39 pm
In late January I flew from Taipei to Hong Kong. Most passengers were wearing surgical masks; that’s when I realised something serious was unfolding.

The 2003 SARS outbreak is a recent memory for many Taiwanese - so news of a fresh virus emerging from mainland China provoked an immediate emotional and societal response. The Government immediately jumped into defence mode and their strategies are clearly working; Taiwan is just over 2000km from China, roughly the same distance between UK and Italy, yet at the time of writing there are only 135 cases of Covid-19 in the country and two fatalities.
I have lived in Taiwan since December 2018, after being offered an assignment by my employer. I had been living in London for eight years and had never lived overseas before, so it felt like time to experience a new culture and different way of living. I obviously never envisaged experiencing a pandemic whilst living away from home, but it has taught me even more about the core values of the Taiwanese.

Taiwan has always felt a very safe place to live. People here are noticeably considerate of others and the economy is strong – life truly feels much the same during Covid-19. There is a tangible sense of personal accountability, summarised by a Taiwanese friend of mine who explained that she doesn’t wear a surgical mask to protect herself from exposure to Covid19, she wears it to reduce her chance of infecting others, in case she unknowingly has the virus.

When the first few cases of coronavirus emerged here in late January/ early February it was clear that the Taiwanese Government were prepared. The response was rapid.

The Lunar New Year holiday was extended by three weeks; schools remained closed to avoid any transmission by those who had travelled during the public holiday. Office buildings, shopping malls, restaurants and cafes implemented temperature scanning and hand sanitisation upon entry. Surgical masks were immediately removed from drugstores and only available from registered pharmacies at a nominal price, rationed according to your ID number. The Government stepped in before panic buying and hoarding could take place.

If you have symptoms you self-isolate until confirmed positive - test results come back in two days - and you are taken to hospital if you are diagnosed. Anyone entering Taiwan from overseas has to quarantine for 14 days in their home or a dedicated "quarantine hotel" where their location is geotracked via their phone and they are checked on twice a day by government officials.

There is a live statement from the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control at 4pm every day, outlining the new cases and new measures which will be imposed. All cases are hospitalised and very closely monitored, all potential contacts are tracked down and quarantined.

The public appreciate the structure - we quietly conform and life has, so far, continued. Everyone is at work and there has been no "lock-down" or "social-distancing".

It is therefore no surprise that I feel worried when I see how things are unfolding in Europe and at home in the UK. The slow response from the Government is very concerning but it is the apparent lack of personal accountability that strikes me the most. It seems the UK are waiting for an enforced "lockdown" before they’ll truly stay at home, until then it’s a race to buy all the pasta and toilet paper they can get their hands on.

The main learning I’d recommend to the UK is to recognise and be accountable for your role in overcoming this pandemic

I worry about the impact the virus will have on the most vulnerable members of UK society and of course how the wonderful NHS will cope with the extra demand. It’s heartbreaking to think about how many lives will be lost, but also heartbreaking to consider the trickle down implications on families, homes and careers – I find some relief in that the planet is being allowed to heal, whilst we all slow down.

When we first learnt about Covid-19 in Taiwan, the atmosphere was a mix of denial and fear, which is what I hear from UK friends and family at the moment. In Taiwan we’ve been living with Covid-19 for a couple of months now and the main learning I’d recommend to the UK is to recognise and be accountable for your role in overcoming this pandemic.

It’s so important to keep informed but not overloaded with information; take the facts and then focus on doing what is within your control, rather than being fearful about the future. It’s not about waiting for the government to "solve" this; we each have a very important, and very immediate, part to play. And among the actions and information, it’s vital to offer support to those who need it – it’s wonderful to see the creative ways people are helping one another in the UK. No one willingly contracts and passes on the virus, but there’s so much we can each do to ease the situation.

As of Wednesday, the Taiwanese borders are closed to any non-residents, meaning I feel even further away from home than normal. This experience will undoubtedly change the way we live; the one thing I’m hoping continues is how much I’m reconnecting with old friends and distant family members – we’re all in this together and we must get through it together.

Ailsa Goodliff is a Brit currently living in Taipei, Taiwan

Also of interest:-

Posted by TheFarEnd on the LLOY bb yesterday :-

Status of COVID-19
Apologies if posted before, but this maybe relevant to the discussion.

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.

The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-conseq ... eases-hcid

Posted by BoomerBower on the LLOY bb yesterday :-

https://amp.ft.com/content/5ff6469a-6dd ... ssion=true

New model from Oxford university suggest Corona had already infected half of UK and it's as fatal as a cold. Only 1 in 1000 need hospitalisation. Mortality probably 0.05%.

Posted by BoomerBower on the LLOY bb yesterday :-

I'd hate to see anyone vulnerable dying next year when we have no money to fund health care. And 10s thousand are dying, plus a mental health crisis created through isolating the most vulnerable. Think man think! I thought you weren't responding to me. Listen to some sense rather than your emotional dogma. You aren't a professor nor do you have any publications. I'm sure you know more than him though lol, or think you do. https://youtu.be/JBB9bA-gXL4

A very interesting video.

Just to add a bit of perspective, if the UK population is currently 67.8m, 1% = 678k, 0.5% = 339k and 0.05% = 33,900 deaths at the 0.05% rate which is still a very high number and would swamp the NHS.
However, IMHO the bigger problem will be after the virus is contained as routine operations will have lengthy waiting lists. My brother has had a few operations over the last two years for Bladder and Prostate cancer. After each scan he has waited just a few weeks for treatment, but after last weeks scan was told that he can probably add a year to the previous waiting times. People requiring stents and bypasses etc will be in a similar situation. Then there will be the increased health problems from the stress of losing jobs etc., with some turning to drink and drugs and even some suicides. I've felt like banging my head against the wall with the banks and Universal Credit.You can't get a payment holiday sorted in the bank, you have to phone and then you can't get through. After registering for UC you have to verify your ID, but if you don't have a photo-card driving licence, or your passport is out of date (mine by a matter of days) you have to make an appointment. After hours of trying I got through, then after about 10 minutes of advice and options, it tells you that the system is not working properly and to phone again on the next working day. It also tells you that it is imperative to complete this or the whole process starts again. Even when I do complete the process there will be a five week wait and it will take until at least the start of June for the self-employment money.
After all these problems we will have to go through I think that it would be a good idea to play football matches behind closed doors, when it becomes possible. This would help to entertain people who will need some sort of release after an enforced period of isolation, especially those without family. Take care all and try not to drink too much. Now where's that bottle of wine?

Very interesting read from start to finish. Shows that this virus has been around for a while and I’m willing to bet anybody who had that 3-4 week flu/illness over Christmas (the one you couldn’t shake) has already had the mild version of it

Very interesting read from start to finish. Shows that this virus has been around for a while and I’m willing to bet anybody who had that 3-4 week flu/illness over Christmas (the one you couldn’t shake) has already had the mild version of it

Quite possible.

The statistics on European Mortality don't show a spike from the virus yet, which may mean that a lot of those who have died would have done so even without the virus. Still too early for any definite conclusions, but the higher figures in places like Northern Italy and Spain might be to the air pollution in those places. Wuhan is a similar industrialised region to Northern Italy in that respect.

https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

Very interesting read from start to finish. Shows that this virus has been around for a while and I’m willing to bet anybody who had that 3-4 week flu/illness over Christmas (the one you couldn’t shake) has already had the mild version of it

Quite possible.

The statistics on European Mortality don't show a spike from the virus yet, which may mean that a lot of those who have died would have done so even without the virus. Still too early for any definite conclusions, but the higher figures in places like Northern Italy and Spain might be to the air pollution in those places. Wuhan is a similar industrialised region to Northern Italy in that respect.

https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

i think your point about many who have died would have done anyway is a bit early to call and will only really be clear years end although all the stats are showing the vast majority are elderly with more than one existing illness...
the spike or lack of is probably more to do with the corona deaths have been relatively low 4k 2 weeks ago and 7k last week which both seem to just about fall into the normal range 52k to 56k deaths ..the next 2 weeks we could well see a spike.?

Why has Germany has had very low levels of Coronavirus deaths compared to Wuhan,Italy and Spain?

53,340 Germans had tested positive for the coronavirus as of March 28, with 397 deaths. That gives a death rate of 0.74%. Spain's rate is 7.6% and Italy's is 10.2%.

This is because Germany is testing as many as 120,000 people a week, identifying many milder cases that don't end in death.
Germany is also in an early stage of its outbreak, has excellent intensive care facilities, a young average age of infection, and a severe lockdown in place.

https://www.businessinsider.com/germany ... ?r=US&IR=T

Northern Italy has very high levels of air pollution from industrial sources, similar to Wuhan.

“For Italy, especially the northern part of Italy, the air pollution comes from emissions of the industry and transport. In the winter season, the weather conditions are very unfavorable due to temperature inversion that prevents the air pollution from dispersing in the higher layers of the atmosphere.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/emanuelaba ... 71c3358fde

Spain is also seeing a higher level of mortality with COVID-19, which could be explained by the higher levels of air pollution.

15 million Spaniards are breathing air the EU considers polluted
https://english.elpais.com/elpais/2018/ ... 14634.html

The posts below from lse highlight the importance of Zinc in the diet regarding the Coronavirus.

Posted by Theosus on the LLOY bb :-

John46
Nivqueen is not an antibiotic its a quinine analogue medication.
If you look up chloroquinine its now being trailed against Covid -19. In nut shell it allows zinc to cross over the lipid membrane of the RNA virus and stop it replicating. This guy explains it better. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CF_W0XX_Kw

jl5006
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CF_W0XX_Kw

Zinc is thought to stop RNA viruses from replicating. In order to get into the cell it needs something like chloroquinine. The video explains it better. It looks an option at least and it won't need to go through extensive drug trials because its already I believe a licence.
In winter I always up my zinc and vit d.

jl5006

This is a bit more info on Zinc..https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/263176
There is a book by the American pharmacist Suzy Cohen which is very useful ( drug Muggers ).. https://www.amazon.co.uk/Drug-Muggers-S ... 1605294160
People don't realise that a lot of prescribed medication can strip out minerals like zinc...
Its a very important mineral for men...

Three densely populated countries that were exposed early in the pandemic, yet have a low number of cases and low numbers of deaths.

Singapore 844 cases, 3 deaths and first case 22nd January.
HongKong 642 cases, 4 deaths and first case 22nd January.
Taiwan 306 cases, 5 deaths and first case 20th January.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The death rate worldwide for people with no pre-existing medical condition is 0.9%.

COVID-19 Fatality Rate by COMORBIDITY:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on pre-existing condition. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by pre-existing condition. Rather, it represents, for a patient with a given pre-existing condition, the risk of dying if infected by COVID-19.

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION
DEATH RATE
confirmed cases
DEATH RATE
all cases
Cardiovascular disease
13.2%
10.5%
Diabetes
9.2%
7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease
8.0%
6.3%
Hypertension
8.4%
6.0%
Cancer
7.6%
5.6%
no pre-existing conditions
0.9%
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). The percentages do not have to add up to 100%, as they do NOT represent share of deaths by condition.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

Some very interesting reading,thanks for posting it

The older members on here will probably recall that many of our toys back in the 60's were made in Taiwan, and a lot of those plastic toys that came free inside Kellogs Corn Flakes and Sugar Puffs etc.,were also made there. I would put money on all of those toys having been binned years ago once they fell apart. Doubt if Covid 19 did much better if it came from Taiwan, but if I had to get it I would opt for a virus from Hong Kong. I remember a week was as much as you could expect anything to last that came out of Hong Kong.

The current death rate from the virus is 5%, based upon the 918,187 cases and 46,070 deaths worldwide to date. Obviously this may change as the pandemic has only just reached many countries and others are starting to get more organised. There are other factors apart from underlying health issues which will contribute to peoples chances of survival.
The death rate is much higher for Spain and Italy and the air quality in Northern Italy and Spain will have been a factor (see earlier post with links to air quality in Spain and Italy). Indonesia, which only had it's first case on the 1st March also has a high death rate and has had very poor air quality due to large scale burning of forests to replace them with oil palm plantations.
Poverty will also be a factor, hence Brazil with large numbers living in the favelas has a much higher death rate than Israel or Australia, countries with a similar number of cases.
Government's procedures will also have an effect, as in Sweden they have only just decided to close the ski slopes and the country has remained open for business, whereas the other Scandinavian countries have put extensive restrictions in place. Hence,the death rate for Sweden is much higher than the other Scandinavian countries.
Access to good Medical facilities and whether a country has a high number of older people, especially those with underlying medical problems will all contribute to peoples chances of survival.

It is too early to make conclusive statements based upon the statistics to date, but it does look like less contact means less chance of survival when looking at the Scandinavian figures. Stay in doors and stay safe and talk to friends and family on the phone or via the internet. I'm trying to find a few good jokes to add to the bit of sense of humour thread, as I think we all need cheering up at times like this.

Italy 110,574 cases; 13,155 deaths; death rate 11.9%; first case Jan 29th.
Spain 102,136 cases; 9,053 deaths; death rate 8.9%; first case Jan 30th.
Indonesia 1677 cases; 157 deaths; death rate 9.4$; first case Mar 1st.

Brazil 5,923 cases; 206 deaths; 3.5% death rate; first case Feb 24th.
Australia 4,864 cases; 21 deaths; 0.4% death rate; first case Jan 24th.
Israel 5,591 cases; 25 deaths; death rate 0.4%; first case Feb 20th.

Sweden 4,447 cases; 239 deaths; death rate 5.4%; first case Jan 30th.
Norway 4,828 cases; 44 deaths; 0.9% death rate; first case Feb 25th.
Denmark 3,107 cases; 104 deaths; 3.3% death rate; first case Feb 21st.
Finland 1,446 cases; 17 deaths; death rate 1.2%; first case Jan 28th.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.thelocal.com/20200331/the-n ... oronavirus
https://www.lifeinnorway.net/coronavirus-in-norway/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/worl ... virus.html

Video titled :-

I found the source of the outbreak
https://www.youtu.be/bpQFCcS10pU

Gravitas: Wuhan CoronaVirus | Pictures that China doesn't want you to see | World News|Corona Update

Has China defeated the coronavirus? Is Beijing reporting the right numbers? China says it has the coronavirus outbreak under control. But several reports tell a different tale. In Wuhan, clashes broke out after the restrictions were lifted.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_gUM8 ... O3adPW9K1g

Video titled :-

I found the source of the outbreak
https://www.youtu.be/bpQFCcS10pU

The previous link is no longer working.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU

The Ostrich head in the sand approach to the Coronavirus?

Turkmenistan Has Banned Use Of The Word 'Coronavirus'

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... oronavirus

The week 13 European Mortality Monitoring figures are out and only show a slight increase, but some countries are showing a decline from the normal figures including Austria, Germany and Northern Ireland. The peaks are still much higher for the 2017, 2018 and 2019 winter periods, which may mean that a lot of those who have died will have done so anyway. Also, others who would have died through RTA's etc are not dying due to restrictions in travel etc. In the three countries with lower figures, the lower contact levels may have reduced levels of those with underlying conditions who would normally have died from flu and cold type viruses.

https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

some very interesting links mate... keep em coming

some very interesting links mate... keep em coming

I'll read them later, but agreed a lot of information to look at

I heard a stat yesterday only 1 in 3 that goes onto a ventilator survives

Comparisons with other respiratory viruses.

Every year an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die in the world due to complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses. This figure corresponds to 795 to 1,781 deaths per day due to the seasonal flu.
SARS (November 2002 to July 2003): was a coronavirus that originated from Beijing, China, spread to 29 countries, and resulted in 8,096 people infected with 774 deaths (fatality rate of 9.6%). Considering that SARS ended up infecting 5,237 people in mainland China, Wuhan Coronavirus surpassed SARS on January 29, 2020, when Chinese officials confirmed 5,974 cases of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). One day later, on January 30, 2020 the novel coronavirus cases surpassed even the 8,096 cases worldwide which were the final SARS count in 2003.
MERS (in 2012) killed 858 people out of the 2,494 infected (fatality rate of 34.4%).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

A taxi driver I know picked up two people off the flight link recently. They were surprised that they weren't tested or had their temperature taken at Heathrow. While they were in Pattaya, Thailand, they were tested three times just walking down the street. Now look at the latest figures for the UK and Thailand :-

Uk 38,168 cases and 3,605 deaths.
Thailand 1,978 cases and 19 deaths.

The last column which showed the date of the first infection in countries is no longer shown, but two new columns have been added. The total number of tests, which for the UK is 173,784 and the number of tests per million of population, which for the UK is 2,560.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The current death rate for those contracting the virus is 5.4%, using the current 1,099,622 cases and 59,193 deaths. This figure has slowly crept up from around 4.9% about a week ago, despite many countries in the Far East having low figures due to the lessons learned by SARS. IMHO as the virus reaches new areas, then those who have underlying health conditions are more likely to die first. Therefore, until the death rate drops back under 5% the peak is unlikely to have been reached. When the number of new cases decline and eventually stop (hopefully), and still IMHO, the CFR should fall back nearer to the initial estimates of around 2 - 3.4%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... eath-rate/

UAE 1,264 cases; 9 deaths; 220,000 tested and 22,244 tests/1M pop.
Qatar 1,075 cases; 4 deaths; 28,413 tested and 9,862 tests/1M pop.
Bahrain 672 cases; 4 deaths; 37,996 tested and 22,330 tests/1M pop.

Looks like they learned from MERS.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Italy is now close to the point where the epidemic will gradually disappear. The mortality rate could also be 25 times less than the figures obtained from those tested (see extract from the link below).

4805 new cases and 681 new deaths in Italy. The number of patients hospitalized in intensive care has declined for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic in Italy

The target of bringing down the reproductive number (R0) to 1 has been reached. Now the goal is to bring it below 1. Earlier in the epidemic, it was as high as 3. This value represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus. An epidemic with a reproductive number below 1 will gradually disappear

An estimated 30,000 lives have been saved as an effect of the lockdown measures, according to Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) [source] [source]

Italy: the real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,0000 (compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the Statale di Milano University.

This number would still be insufficient to reach herd immunity, which would require 2/3 of the population (about 40,000,000 people in Italy) having contracted the virus [source].

The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.

If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19 would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/

Fox News: Georgian PM Explains Why the Country Has Had No COVID-19 Deaths

"As the coronavirus body count continues to rise around the world, one country that is remarkably bereft of any official deaths: the former Soviet country of Georgia," reads the article published by Fox News, written by journalist Hollie McKay.

Implementing travel bans from hotspot countries as early as January was key to their low transmission rate, Georgia Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia told Fox News.

"We took strong, decisive actions early, without hesitation. We not only began screening the temperatures of all arrivals but beginning on January 28 we banned flights from all countries as soon as they became hotspots in the global outbreak, which led to a complete ban of international travelers," said Gakharia, who has held the position of prime minister since September. "We also took the early step of shutting down schools in mid-March, and restricted public gatherings."

The author of the publication emphasizes that as of Friday, Georgian officials had documented 148 cases of the contagion and claimed 27 of those were recovered.

"Somewhat remarkably, they have had no fatalities," she points out.

The country diagnosed its first cases of coronavirus, known as COVID-19, on February 26 – a Georgian citizen on the border with Azerbaijan returning from Iran.

"We saw the warning signs early on and acted on them. Our first official action came on January 22 when the Georgian National Center for Disease Control warned Georgians against traveling to Wuhan," Gakharia told Fox News.

"At the time, we told Georgians there was a 'small, but theoretical' chance the virus could reach Georgia. A few days later, as everyone knows, the situation in Wuhan was became more dire, and on January 26, we began checking all travelers returning from China."

While the matter is seemingly under control, the threat – the official emphasized – is far from over.

"We are far from saying that the spread has stopped, but we have done the maximum we can to flatten the 'curve' of the spread," the PM noted. "We believe the situation is stabilizing. But we cannot overreact or move imprudently. We will continue to work with our experts at the Lugar Center of the Georgian National Center for Disease Control and other international health organizations to determine when to 're-open' Georgia."

However, the author also highlights the fact that "Despite the zero death rate, the nation's economy – which is classified as an emerging free market and relies heavily on cultivation and agricultural products and the mining of manganese, copper, and gold – has inevitably taken a hard hit."

"COVID-19 will leave its huge mark on our way of everyday life and our social behavior. For sure, it's going to have an extremely negative effect on the world economy – market behavior is a clear testament to that," Gakharia said. "Of course, the measures we have taken have had an economic impact. Like almost all countries, we have instituted social distancing and shut down non-essential businesses across the country."

The article further reads that the government has, however, announced an early economic rescue package, including hundreds of millions of dollars in business aid, deferring payment of property taxes and income taxes for several months, and providing VAT refunds to businesses to help with cash flow.

"The nation of around 3.7 million is considered to be at the hub between eastern Europe and western Asia, bordered by the Black Sea to the west, Turkey and Armenia to the south, Azerbaijan to the southeast, and Russia to the north. Those nations combined have at least 23,500 cases of coronavirus and have documented more than 372 deaths as a result," the author concludes.

"The key for Georgia was early, decisive action, and clear, consistent communication with our citizens. It was not easy to shut down the country, but certainly much easier in a small country like Georgia as opposed to the world's largest economy," the Prime Minister stressed during the interview with Fox News.

"We made an aggressive decision to start closing down major social events and gatherings, and we closed schools in mid-March and enforced self-isolation. We provided thousands of our citizens with quarantine facilities, and we have completely banned movement during nighttime."

Author: Hollie McKay

http://georgiatoday.ge/news/20406/Fox-N ... m-COVID-19

The WHO advice and the advice that has been given to the UK Government from it's own experts in Epidemiology is clearly not as good as some other countries. This doesn't surprise me as a former head of the WHO on Epidemiology (I can't remember his name), was also the UK's head of Epidemiology. We should have taken heed of SARS, MERS etc and been planning our response for the last 17 years. Instead Boris had about 17 days notice. I don't blame his predecessor T.May either who was hamstrung through Brexit. The blame lies with Blair, Brown, Cameron, the WHO and the heads of Epidemiology in the UK.
Government departments, businesses, the NHS and individuals all need to think about the price paid for products. It is all well and good to save a few bob buying cheaper products from overseas, but the old saying rings true "There's always a price to pay!" Now we are paying the price, if we don't have the manufacturing ability for essential products, then we have to join the queue. A Norwegian company Norenco, moved it's factory for hand sanitiser to Poland and then Poland blocked a sanitiser shipment for Norwegian hospitals.


https://www.thelocal.no/20200325/poland ... -hospitals