OT: 10 REASONS NOT TO PANIC OVER CORONA VIRUS

Coronavirus: Ten reasons why you ought not to panic
By Ignacio López-Goñi - Universidad de Navarra


Regardless of whether we classify the new coronavirus as a pandemic, it is a serious issue. In less than two months, it has spread over several continents. Pandemic means sustained and continuous transmission of the disease, simultaneously in more than three different geographical regions. Pandemic does not refer to the lethality of a virus but to its transmissibility and geographical extension.

What we certainly have is a pandemic of fear. The entire planet’s media is gripped by coronavirus. It is right that there is deep concern and mass planning for worst-case scenarios. And, of course, the repercussions move from the global health sphere into business and politics.

But it is also right that we must not panic. It would be wrong to say there is good news coming out of COVID-19, but there are causes for optimism; reasons to think there may be ways to contain and defeat the virus. And lessons to learn for the future.


1. We know what it is

The first cases of AIDS were described in June 1981 and it took more than two years to identify the virus (HIV) causing the disease. With COVID-19, the first cases of severe pneumonia were reported in China on December 31, 2019 and by January 7 the virus had already been identified. The genome was available on day 10.

We already know that it is a new coronavirus from group 2B, of the same family as SARS, which we have called SARSCoV2. The disease is called COVID-19. It is thought to be related to coronavirus from bats. Genetic analyses have confirmed it has a recent natural origin (between the end of November and the beginning of December) and that, although viruses live by mutating, its mutation rate may not be very high.


2. We know how to detect the virus

Since January 13, a test to detect the virus has been available.


3. The situation is improving in China

The strong control and isolation measures imposed by China are paying off. For several weeks now, the number of cases diagnosed every day is decreasing. A very detailed epidemiological follow-up is being carried out in other countries; outbreaks are very specific to areas, which can allow them to be controlled more easily.


4. 80% of cases are mild

The disease causes no symptoms or is mild in 81% of cases. Of course, in 14% it can cause severe pneumonia and in 5% it can become critical or even fatal. It is still unclear what the death rate may be. But it could be lower than some estimates so far.


5. People recover

Much of the reported data relates to the increase in the number of confirmed cases and the number of deaths, but most infected people are cured. There are 13 times more cured cases than deaths, and that proportion is increasing.


6. Symptoms appear mild in children

Only 3% of cases occur in people under 20, and mortality under 40 is only 0.2%. Symptoms are so mild in children it can go unnoticed.


7. The virus can be wiped clean

The virus can be effectively inactivated from surfaces with a solution of ethanol (62-71% alcohol), hydrogen peroxide (0.5% hydrogen peroxide) or sodium hypochlorite (0.1% bleach), in just one minute. Frequent handwashing with soap and water is the most effective way to avoid contagion.


8. Science is on it, globally

It is the age of international science cooperation. After just over a month, 164 articles could be accessed in PubMed on COVID19 or SARSCov2, as well as many others available in repositories of articles not yet reviewed. They are preliminary works on vaccines, treatments, epidemiology, genetics and phylogeny, diagnosis, clinical aspects, etc.

These articles were written by some 700 authors, distributed throughout the planet. It is cooperative science, shared and open. In 2003, with the SARS epidemic, it took more than a year to reach less than half that number of articles. In addition, most scientific journals have left their publications as open access on the subject of coronaviruses.


9. There are already vaccine prototypes

Our ability to design new vaccines is spectacular. There are already more than eight projects underway seeking a vaccine against the new coronavirus. There are groups that work on vaccination projects against similar viruses.

The vaccine group of the University of Queensland, in Australia, has announced it is already working on a prototype using the technique called “molecular clamp”, a novel technology. This is just one example that could allow vaccine production in record time. Prototypes may soon be tested on humans.


10. Antiviral trials are underway

Vaccines are preventive. Right now, the treatment of people who are already sick is important. There are already more than 80 clinical trials analysing coronavirus treatments. These are antivirals that have been used for other infections, which are already approved and that we know are safe.

One of those that has already been tested in humans is remdesivir, a broad-spectrum antiviral still under study, which has been tested against Ebola and SARS/MERS.

Another candidate is chloroquine, an antimalarial that has also been seen to have potent antiviral activity. It is known that chloroquine blocks viral infection by increasing the pH of the endosome, which is needed for the fusion of the virus with the cell, thus inhibiting its entry. It has been demonstrated that this compound blocks the new coronavirus in vitro and it is already being used in patients with coronavirus pneumonia.

Other proposed trials are based on the use of oseltamivir (which is used against the influenza virus), interferon-1b (protein with antiviral function), antisera from people who recovered or monoclonal antibodies to neutralise the virus. New therapies have been proposed with inhibitory substances, such as baricitinibine, selected by artificial intelligence.

The 1918 flu pandemic caused more than 25 million deaths in less than 25 weeks. Could something similar happen now? Probably not; we have never been better prepared to fight a pandemic.

A pretty balanced and fact-based view above...

A pretty balanced and fact-based view above...

Sven a very interesting article, it does tend to make you feel more confident about it

Condolences to anyone affected by this virus but this article shows that the panic is once again media created imo.

A very informative article that is also very clear.
Unfortunately it won’t stop some scaremongering though.

To be fair. It looks now that the UK is taking the stance of letting everyone get the virus, in order for us to move on. The UK seem resigned to sacrificing certain members of society in order to power ourselves through this.

Seems like we’re all going to get coronavirus at some stage in the future, and the plan is for us to get an immunity to it after we recover.

Unfortunately that looks like the way we’re headed now.

The thought is there really is little point of avoiding the virus in the long term because without a vaccination (which experts say is almost definitely years away) this virus will just keep coming back. Not every single Country is going to wipe the virus clean with isolation etc. It just takes 1 person when the whole world is free from it to spread it again. So I can see why the plan to let everyone catch it for most to build an immunity to it makes sense, but it’s just a very scary plan knowing how many people are going to die.

The whole “only 19% of people suffer badly, and only 5% is critical/fatal” is annoying me. It shouldn’t matter what percentage it is, if this spreads to every single person on Earth, that 5% is practically 700 million dead or left as a vegetable.

I still don’t know if I agree with what the UK’s plan is or not. It’s a plan that will work for most of us, but will almost certainly put a hole in a lot of families.

To be fair. It looks now that the UK is taking the stance of letting everyone get the virus, in order for us to move on. The UK seem resigned to sacrificing certain members of society in order to power ourselves through this.

Seems like we’re all going to get coronavirus at some stage in the future, and the plan is for us to get an immunity to it after we recover.

Unfortunately that looks like the way we’re headed now.

The thought is there really is little point of avoiding the virus in the long term because without a vaccination (which experts say is almost definitely years away) this virus will just keep coming back. Not every single Country is going to wipe the virus clean with isolation etc. It just takes 1 person when the whole world is free from it to spread it again. So I can see why the plan to let everyone catch it for most to build an immunity to it makes sense, but it’s just a very scary plan knowing how many people are going to die.

The whole “only 19% of people suffer badly, and only 5% is critical/fatal” is annoying me. It shouldn’t matter what percentage it is, if this spreads to every single person on Earth, that 5% is practically 700 million dead or left as a vegetable.

I still don’t know if I agree with what the UK’s plan is or not. It’s a plan that will work for most of us, but will almost certainly put a hole in a lot of families.

I have 2 family members in the ‘at risk’category.
I genuinely don’t know what’s around the corner and pretty sure that nobody, including scientific experts do either, so we just have to trust the experts imho.

To be fair. It looks now that the UK is taking the stance of letting everyone get the virus, in order for us to move on. The UK seem resigned to sacrificing certain members of society in order to power ourselves through this.

Seems like we’re all going to get coronavirus at some stage in the future, and the plan is for us to get an immunity to it after we recover.

Unfortunately that looks like the way we’re headed now.

The thought is there really is little point of avoiding the virus in the long term because without a vaccination (which experts say is almost definitely years away) this virus will just keep coming back. Not every single Country is going to wipe the virus clean with isolation etc. It just takes 1 person when the whole world is free from it to spread it again. So I can see why the plan to let everyone catch it for most to build an immunity to it makes sense, but it’s just a very scary plan knowing how many people are going to die.

The whole “only 19% of people suffer badly, and only 5% is critical/fatal” is annoying me. It shouldn’t matter what percentage it is, if this spreads to every single person on Earth, that 5% is practically 700 million dead or left as a vegetable.

I still don’t know if I agree with what the UK’s plan is or not. It’s a plan that will work for most of us, but will almost certainly put a hole in a lot of families.

I have 2 family members in the ‘at risk’category.
I genuinely don’t know what’s around the corner and pretty sure that nobody, including scientific experts do either, so we just have to trust the experts imho.

The (self-appointed) Forum Health Minister has spoken, mate

Never mind the (largely positive and somewhat reassuring) article by an expert in his field, LeonSD has spoken!

#TheGuesstimator

thank you ever so much for all the information, out of interest any of our board members know for definite of any relatives or friends who 100 % have Coronavirus and of so what differing symptoms are they experiencing?

thank you ever so much for all the information, out of interest any of our board members know for definite of any relatives or friends who 100 % have Coronavirus and of so what differing symptoms are they experiencing?

I’m waiting for my Mrs to return from a Benidorm weekend with her mates. Due into Bristol around 730pm. At the moment the planes are running but stopping tomorrow. Phew

Of course the goverment want to isolate the most vulnerable because the nhs cannot cope with the volume of people exspected we can' t even cope with flu in this country in the winter, there now trying to get car workers and engineers to manufacture oxygen machines, we are so unprepared for nearly everything, be it floods, snow, flu, now this
and they are learning and making it up as they go along they are still not isolating people coming off flights which they should have done at the start but its here now , to late, the first cases in wales, england and scotland all came from people returning from Italy

Did you mention how dangerous this virus is to over seventies with ongoing health issues?

You wont see a vaccine for at least a year, it need to go through extensive testing so it dont end up killing people

To be fair. It looks now that the UK is taking the stance of letting everyone get the virus, in order for us to move on. The UK seem resigned to sacrificing certain members of society in order to power ourselves through this.

Seems like we’re all going to get coronavirus at some stage in the future, and the plan is for us to get an immunity to it after we recover.

Unfortunately that looks like the way we’re headed now.

The thought is there really is little point of avoiding the virus in the long term because without a vaccination (which experts say is almost definitely years away) this virus will just keep coming back. Not every single Country is going to wipe the virus clean with isolation etc. It just takes 1 person when the whole world is free from it to spread it again. So I can see why the plan to let everyone catch it for most to build an immunity to it makes sense, but it’s just a very scary plan knowing how many people are going to die.

The whole “only 19% of people suffer badly, and only 5% is critical/fatal” is annoying me. It shouldn’t matter what percentage it is, if this spreads to every single person on Earth, that 5% is practically 700 million dead or left as a vegetable.

I still don’t know if I agree with what the UK’s plan is or not. It’s a plan that will work for most of us, but will almost certainly put a hole in a lot of families.

I wouldnt be surprised if the Tories have seen this as an opportunity to get rid of the old people and free up pensions.

To be fair. It looks now that the UK is taking the stance of letting everyone get the virus, in order for us to move on. The UK seem resigned to sacrificing certain members of society in order to power ourselves through this.

Seems like we’re all going to get coronavirus at some stage in the future, and the plan is for us to get an immunity to it after we recover.

Unfortunately that looks like the way we’re headed now.

The thought is there really is little point of avoiding the virus in the long term because without a vaccination (which experts say is almost definitely years away) this virus will just keep coming back. Not every single Country is going to wipe the virus clean with isolation etc. It just takes 1 person when the whole world is free from it to spread it again. So I can see why the plan to let everyone catch it for most to build an immunity to it makes sense, but it’s just a very scary plan knowing how many people are going to die.

The whole “only 19% of people suffer badly, and only 5% is critical/fatal” is annoying me. It shouldn’t matter what percentage it is, if this spreads to every single person on Earth, that 5% is practically 700 million dead or left as a vegetable.

I still don’t know if I agree with what the UK’s plan is or not. It’s a plan that will work for most of us, but will almost certainly put a hole in a lot of families.

I wouldnt be surprised if the Tories have seen this as an opportunity to get rid of the old people and free up pensions.

Really?

I always thought there was a government department to deal solely with any national state emergency ?

Much too late to suggest that there should be no panic

The entire planet is shitting itself at the moment - probably the reason why so many people are hoarding toilet paper!

The whole basis of media coverage is negative and sensationalist at the moment. No mention of the amount of people who've caught the virus and recovered, very little mention of the amount of people who've been tested and shown to be negative.

Estimates with no scientific back up of 20,000 deaths in Wales being given credence by the media and a public determined to panic as much as it possibly can by queueing around the corner to buy pasta and toilet rolls.

The time to avoid panic driven by an irresponsible media has long since passed.

Much too late to suggest that there should be no panic

The entire planet is shitting itself at the moment - probably the reason why so many people are hoarding toilet paper!

The whole basis of media coverage is negative and sensationalist at the moment. No mention of the amount of people who've caught the virus and recovered, very little mention of the amount of people who've been tested and shown to be negative.

Estimates with no scientific back up of 20,000 deaths in Wales being given credence by the media and a public determined to panic as much as it possibly can by queueing around the corner to buy pasta and toilet rolls.

The time to avoid panic driven by an irresponsible media has long since passed.

Good post mate.
A mate of mine said pretty much exactly the same.

Wouldn’t describe it as balanced. If an article or piece makes you feel better, it doesn’t mean it is balanced, informative or indeed good.

There is a horrible trend going on where people hear what they want to hear and read what they want to read to create their own reality. Censoring the other side of the debate representing reality.

It is giving 10 reasons not to panic, if it was also giving 10 reasons to panic, then maybe it would be balanced. Articles like this I feel are dangerous. They make people complacent.

The fact of the matter is that experts (not the media) suggest 40-70% of the world population is expected to get this in the next 12 months (some say 80%) and due to that short time frame hospitals will not be able to cope.

In Italy, doctors are literally telling some people that they have to let them die and refuse treatment simply because they cannot accomodate them, and this is only with 12,000 reported infections in Italy. This is a very real concern and a “top 10 reasons to...” article really doesn’t change that.

Even if we say 1% of infected people die from this (it’s reported as much more than that - currently 9% in terms of death to recovery rate) and let’s say the bottom estimate of 40% of the world get infected in the next 12 months - that’s around 30 million deaths in a year from this. We are at over 6,500 deaths now at we are months and months away from it peaking according to experts. We are at the very beginning.

Yes let’s all not go bonkers, but let’s not pretend that people shouldn’t be rightly panicked. Boris Johnson himself said “many families will lose loved ones before their time”, coming from a politician who’s remit is to slow panic - that’s pretty damning.

People should be doing all the can to prepare for what’s to come. I know we are in my household.

To be fair. It looks now that the UK is taking the stance of letting everyone get the virus, in order for us to move on. The UK seem resigned to sacrificing certain members of society in order to power ourselves through this.

Seems like we’re all going to get coronavirus at some stage in the future, and the plan is for us to get an immunity to it after we recover.

Unfortunately that looks like the way we’re headed now.

The thought is there really is little point of avoiding the virus in the long term because without a vaccination (which experts say is almost definitely years away) this virus will just keep coming back. Not every single Country is going to wipe the virus clean with isolation etc. It just takes 1 person when the whole world is free from it to spread it again. So I can see why the plan to let everyone catch it for most to build an immunity to it makes sense, but it’s just a very scary plan knowing how many people are going to die.

The whole “only 19% of people suffer badly, and only 5% is critical/fatal” is annoying me. It shouldn’t matter what percentage it is, if this spreads to every single person on Earth, that 5% is practically 700 million dead or left as a vegetable.

I still don’t know if I agree with what the UK’s plan is or not. It’s a plan that will work for most of us, but will almost certainly put a hole in a lot of families.

I wouldnt be surprised if the Tories have seen this as an opportunity to get rid of the old people and free up pensions.

Really?

Not sure that political point scoring should play a part in a global pandemic. Reading about the recent cases, it looks as if nobody is immune to serious consequences from this virus, irrespective of age. I think politicians from all sides are certain to have friends and family who fall into the vulnerable group and will be as worried as anyone else. I think everyone should take sensible precautions, and everyone should work together on this and put politics to one side. The scientists and medical profession are the ones who will be providing the advice. Poilticians are not likely to know much more about viruses than members of this forum.

It cant be stopped at present , only slightly mitigated via hand wash and not getting too close to others.

The corona virus has been around for thousands of years , it is a respiratory disease (no plastic handles to worry about 1000 years ago) - therefor it will always spread. If we could stop the 'wet' markets of SE asia that would be a start. Butchering of bats and pangolin in the same confined space would never happen in the wild - whicg is why when these things cross contaminate - we have no idea how it will end up.

Staying indoors for months on end - may temporary stop it - but it will come back when the next infected person comes into the UK - and we start all over again.

Therefor - there are only 2 solutions - we all get it over the following months and herd immunity kicks in AND / OR we get a vaccine and treat the most vulnerable first.

South Korea numbers are going doing - but they will rise again as soon as people start going out and mixing.

It cant be stopped at present , only slightly mitigated via hand wash and not getting too close to others.

The corona virus has been around for thousands of years , it is a respiratory disease (no plastic handles to worry about 1000 years ago) - therefor it will always spread. If we could stop the 'wet' markets of SE asia that would be a start. Butchering of bats and pangolin in the same confined space would never happen in the wild - whicg is why when these things cross contaminate - we have no idea how it will end up.

Staying indoors for months on end - may temporary stop it - but it will come back when the next infected person comes into the UK - and we start all over again.

Therefor - there are only 2 solutions - we all get it over the following months and herd immunity kicks in AND / OR we get a vaccine and treat the most vulnerable first.

South Korea numbers are going doing - but they will rise again as soon as people start going out and mixing.

Coronavirus is an umbrella term, this particular strain has not been around for thousands of years, it new and next to nothing is known about it. If you let it spread uncontrolled it could mutate and get even worse and there's been cases of people fully recovering and getting infected again.
for Herd immunity to work in the UK 36 million people will need to be infected and recover, the death toll would be huge and it would hit the NHS extremely hard, i'd say a vaccine is our best bet at this stage.

As far as Ive read - only 1 person has been recorded as being re infected - and they werent sure whether they were infected in the first place.
I know it's a new 'novel' virus - the analysis that Ive seen says 96% bat genome and the remainder likely is from the Pangolin.
Which is why I said "when these things cross contaminate - we have no idea how it will end up."

If there is no known vaccine yet - then we can try lockdown - but it will come back. So we get rid of it in the UK - give a month - someone could bring it back in with them - and we start all over again. The world economy will collapse if we continue lockdown of everyone.

The only solution (other than finding a vaccine) is control the spread and hope it goes away or let it spread as slowly as possible. I fully agree with your points re but I cant see lockdown working in the long run - other than what we are going to do - which get all the oaps to stay indoors as much as possible and avoid crowds.

Interesting reports from Oz though re HIV drugs being effective when used on critically ill corona patients

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/07/pangolins-might-have-spread-coronavirus-to-humans

To be fair. It looks now that the UK is taking the stance of letting everyone get the virus, in order for us to move on. The UK seem resigned to sacrificing certain members of society in order to power ourselves through this.

Seems like we’re all going to get coronavirus at some stage in the future, and the plan is for us to get an immunity to it after we recover.

Unfortunately that looks like the way we’re headed now.

The thought is there really is little point of avoiding the virus in the long term because without a vaccination (which experts say is almost definitely years away) this virus will just keep coming back. Not every single Country is going to wipe the virus clean with isolation etc. It just takes 1 person when the whole world is free from it to spread it again. So I can see why the plan to let everyone catch it for most to build an immunity to it makes sense, but it’s just a very scary plan knowing how many people are going to die.

The whole “only 19% of people suffer badly, and only 5% is critical/fatal” is annoying me. It shouldn’t matter what percentage it is, if this spreads to every single person on Earth, that 5% is practically 700 million dead or left as a vegetable.

I still don’t know if I agree with what the UK’s plan is or not. It’s a plan that will work for most of us, but will almost certainly put a hole in a lot of families.

its an acceptance that we will all get it , not a plan..