This is exactly how many points Cardiff now need to official

This is exactly how many points Cardiff City now need to officially be promoted and end Fulham and Aston Villa's hopes -


By Ben James

Tuesday 3rd March 2018


Last night's dramatic point against Sheffield United felt like a big moment in Cardiff City's promotion bid.

The winning streak may have stalled in the ninth game, but Anthony Pilkington's late strike ensured the Bluebirds have not lost a league game since New Year's Day.

Neil Warnock's side sit eight points clear of third place Fulham in the automatic promotion places with just seven games left.

But what exactly do Cardiff need to secure promotion back to the Premier League?

And when could they achieve that?


So what do they need?

14 is the magic number as far as Cardiff are concerned - that's the number of points they need to pick up to be absolutely sure that Fulham cannot catch them.

That would take them to 94 points for the season - Fulham, presuming that the Cottagers pick up maximum points in their last seven games, can only get to 93.

Aston Villa are even further back - only able to reach 91 points - meaning four Cardiff wins consigns the Villains to the play-offs so they can effectively be ruled out of contention.

It's highly unlikely that Fulham will win all of their remaining games - but you'd bank on Cardiff needing to pick up somewhere close to those 14 points to go up.


The average points tally for second place in the Championship in the past decade is around 85 - Cardiff are on 80 at the minute.

But given the form Fulham are in, Warnock's side are probably going to need to pick up more than five points to ensure they are back in the top flight next season.



However, there are other historical statistics that point towards Cardiff going up.

No team has missed out on automatic promotion from the Championship after achieving 80 points or more after 39 games since before three points were brought in for a victory in 1981.

And the 11 teams who have managed to surpass Cardiff's 80 points by this stage of the season in the past 20 years have all gone up - with seven of them winning the league.

So the signs are good. Very good.








When could they secure promotion?

Going on the fact that Cardiff need 14 points, then the earliest they can secure promotion regardless of Fulham's results would be, ironically, the rearranged fixture against Derby on April 24.

That is presuming that Cardiff pick up maximum points against Wolves this Friday before also beating Aston Villa, Norwich and Nottingham Forest.

Given the bad taste that was left by Derby's postponement due to snow last month and the suggestions that calling the game off favoured injury-hit Derby, there would be a delightful bit of schadenfreude in Cardiff securing promotion at Pride Park.

Failing that, there will be two more opportunities to reach the 94-points mark at Hull and then Reading at home to finish the season.


Of course, the likelihood of Fulham gaining the full 21 points from their remaining games is slim - so there is the chance that Cardiff could go up before that Derby game.

But that seems unlikely as Fulham's run-in doesn't look as difficult on paper compared to Cardiff.

Presuming they beat Leeds tonight, the gap will be down to five points - albeit with Fulham having played a game more.

Cardiff are in the driving seat, but Fulham's run-in means this is far from over.










The remaining fixtures

Cardiff City: Wolves (H), Aston Villa (A), Norwich (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Derby (A), Hull (A), Reading (H).

Fulham: Leeds (H), Sheffield Wednesday (A), Reading (H), Brentford (H), Millwall (A), Sunderland (H), Birmingham (A).

Aston Villa: Reading (H), Norwich (A), Cardiff City (H), Leeds (H), Ipswich (A), Derby (H), Millwall (A).

You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

It all sounds so simple , 4 wins 2 draws .
Lets wait and see what pans out.

What I do know is that we can afford at least 2 slip ups in the last 7 games and still be promoted

Fulham and Villa slip up twice and they got no chance

No club in the last 15 years has failed to win automatic promotion having won 90 points so for me we need 10 out of the 21 available. Just got a feeling that Derby away will be the night it will be confirmed.

Mind you beat either Wolves or Villa and it may well be Forest at home.

They need 3 wins to overtake us we win 3 more they would need to win 6 out of 7 games left remaining that's how hard Fulham's task is! We surely can win 3 more but can they win 6 out of 7?

We have a buffer but nothing anywhere near guaranteed.
If we lose against wolves and villa I think we will end up in the playoffs as Fulham will end up catching us.
Massive games that will define our season imo.

We have a buffer but nothing anywhere near guaranteed.
If we lose against wolves and villa I think we will end up in the playoffs as Fulham will end up catching us.
Massive games that will define our season imo.

Asuming Fulham win next 3 games and we lose our game in hand all ifs & buts

We have a buffer but nothing anywhere near guaranteed.
If we lose against wolves and villa I think we will end up in the playoffs as Fulham will end up catching us.
Massive games that will define our season imo.

Asuming Fulham win next 3 games and we lose our game in hand all ifs & buts

Indeed it is. Next 2 games are as hard as they get and whilst we are capable of winning we could easily lose both. Then the pressure will begin to bite.

We have a buffer but nothing anywhere near guaranteed.
If we lose against wolves and villa I think we will end up in the playoffs as Fulham will end up catching us.
Massive games that will define our season imo.

Asuming Fulham win next 3 games and we lose our game in hand all ifs & buts

Indeed it is. Next 2 games are as hard as they get and whilst we are capable of winning we could easily lose both. Then the pressure will begin to bite.

Yes did say they could get close to us but can they keep winning? Expect us to win at least 3 games that's 17 points ahead they've got 21 to play for basically that would mean 24 unbeaten games winning 6 our 7 games left? Like said can they do that and asuming
We only win 3of course !!!

14 points, I can see Fulham winning every game, so we need to get 3 points from our next 2 games at least.

14 points, I can see Fulham winning every game, so we need to get 3 points from our next 2 games at least.

They do that they deserve to be promoted as be 20 wins and 4 draws in 24 games

We have a buffer but nothing anywhere near guaranteed.
If we lose against wolves and villa I think we will end up in the playoffs as Fulham will end up catching us.
Massive games that will define our season imo.

And of course the flip side is if we beat Wolves the gap between us is down to 2 points with us having a game in hand

We have a buffer but nothing anywhere near guaranteed.
If we lose against wolves and villa I think we will end up in the playoffs as Fulham will end up catching us.
Massive games that will define our season imo.

And of course the flip side is if we beat Wolves the gap between us is down to 2 points with us having a game in hand

Exactly we beat Wolves and it's essentially back to being a three horse race for two spots.

I think another 10 points should be enough to secure it for us. That gives us 90 points, meaning Fulham will need to get 16 points from 18 to overtake us and finish on 91 (or 15 from 18 if they beat us on goal difference). Massive task for them, can't wait to see what happens over the next few games now!

five wins definitely up
four wins almost definitely up
three wins probably up