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THE BIG RUN IN TO GET PROMOTED FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP

Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:32 am

The big run-in breakdown: What Cardiff City need in their remaining games to beat Aston Villa and Fulham to automatic promotion

By Kemble

Wednesday 28th March 2018

And so it begins. The final run-in. One that will define the season for Cardiff City and indeed many other clubs up and down the land.


From here, it can all go wrong or from here, the shiny jewel of promotion can cap off a season to remember.

Cardiff City have been here before. It’s gone wrong on so many occasions in the past but they’ve also seen the job through.

Failures to reach the promised land that is the Premier League by far outweigh the one promotion to the modern-day top-tier that the Bluebirds hold to their name.

And so ensues a fear amongst supporters. There’s a cautious approach to getting excited in these parts and even now, even with their team in pole position to secure second spot, many are thinking the worst.

For many, it won’t be reality until the job is mathematical done and that includes the manager, Neil Warnock, and the players, too.

The Bluebirds are currently seven points clear with a game in hand. Since the modern format of the Championship was introduced in 2004, no team has ever blown it with this many points at this stage – 76.


Neil Warnock and his players hope to give them that licence to celebrate, too, but they know there’s still work to do. Some are even increasing their targets, eyeing up top spot as Wolves begin to falter a little.

Nine games packed into a hectic schedule. Get through those with a good return of points and promotion is theirs. Nine games in 41 days and nine games to achieve what many predicted was the unachievable.

Things can change quickly in the Championship and Warnock knows that all too well. Seven straight wins can mean nothing a week after a defeat in the Championship and Cardiff found that out over Christmas.

However, it does seem like the stars are aligning for Warnock in his quest to secure a record-breaking eighth promotion.

Fulham and Aston Villa just keep slipping up and that’s what has handed Cardiff pole position ahead of this huge run-in that sees them play leaders Wolves and fourth placed Aston Villa before the season is out.

But what will Cardiff need from those games? Where will their season be won and lost? With the international break out of the way, from here, it’s a downhill sprint to the finish line.







Here’s a full rundown of Cardiff City’s remaining fixtures and here’s what they need to reach the finish line ahead of their rivals.




30th March – Burton Albion (Home)

Required result – Win

Key fixtures: Norwich City Vs Fulham, Hull City Vs Aston Villa, Middlesbrough Vs Wolves

This is a huge opportunity for Cardiff City and there’s no time for a slow start after the international break like they’ve suffered from in the past. This is a must win.

All three of the Bluebirds’ promotion rivals are away from home and leaders Wolves face a tough trip to Boro.

It’s likely that at least one of those three teams are going to slip up again and if they do, Cardiff must be there to pounce.

Home form is the key to Cardiff City reaching the finish line and slipping up at home to relegation-battling Burton Albion would be a bad way to kick-off the run-in.





2nd April – Sheffield United (Away)

Required result: Draw

Key fixtures: Aston Villa Vs Reading, Fulham Vs Leeds United, Wolves Vs Hull City

This is a tricky one. Warnock returns to his ‘home ground’ in front of the Sky Sports cameras and with the pressure firmly on.

By this point, the Bluebirds should be on the edge of reaching 80 points and everyone will have to consider them front-runners in the race for second whether they like it or not.

That will mean Cardiff – if this hasn’t happened already – can forget about using the underdog card. They will have to stand up to the pressure from here on in.

This one will be a huge test given Sheffield United’s ability and their play-off hopes. Two games in four days won’t be easy, either, and a point would leave everyone satisfied.





6th April – Wolves (Home)

Required result: Draw

Key fixtures: Norwich City Vs Aston Villa,Sheffield Wednesday Vs Fulham

The big one. Everyone already has their eyes on this tasty clash between first and second and who knows what the gap will be by the time this one comes around.

As things stand, Cardiff are only six points behind with a game in-hand and with this one against the leaders to play.

The title race is still open and this one will define whether it remains open. The pressure will be huge and the Bluebirds will be glad to be home.

Win and the focus may change from top two to racing for the title. Cardiff beat Wolves away from home earlier in the season so they’ll be full of belief against their lofty opponents, especially at home, but in the context of finishing in the top two, a draw will do.





10th April – Aston Villa (Away)

Required result: None

Key fixtures: Fulham Vs Reading, Wolves Vs Derby County

Another huge game comes right around the corner from that tasty clash with Wolves as the Bluebirds head to Villa Park to take on direct automatic promotion rivals Aston Villa.

The pressure will be enormous, but the facts are, Cardiff don’t need to win it. People will look at the psychological implications of losing this one and so on, but it’s simply a points race from here and Warnock’s men can get there even if they lose this game.

Of course, a draw or even a win would be huge for the season and the latter may even end Aston Villa’s promotion hopes.

However, the pressure is on the home side and not Cardiff to get a result. The seven-point buffer – with a game in hand – going into the last nine games means Warnock’s men can relax a little more than their opponents here.





14th April – Norwich City (Away)

Required result: Draw

Key fixtures: Aston Villa Vs Leeds United, Fulham Vs Brentford, Wolves Vs Birmingham City

This one won’t be easy, either, but Cardiff need to take a point and that could mean three games without a win, but it’s all about accumulating points.

The Bluebirds should be able to rely on their home form for wins and with that, they just need to back it up with a few draws away from home.

This one will be a test. It’s a long trip and it adds to the heavy schedule of games during April.

However, Cardiff are capable of coming away from Carrow Road with at least a point.





21st April – Nottingham Forest (Home)

Required result: Win

Key Fixtures: Ipswich Town Vs Aston Villa, Millwall Vs Fulham, Bolton Vs Wolves

Another home game and another one the Bluebirds need to win to take the pressure off away from home.

Forest are a different team under Aitor Karanka and this may be a little tricky, but Cardiff need to find a way in front of their home support.

To their credit, they’ve done that all season and with the automatic promotion lurking on the sunset, they should be motivated enough to find an answer here, too.





24th April – Derby County (Away)

Required result: Draw

Key fixtures: None (Game in hand)

The controversial one. The postponement of the original fixture caused upheaval between the two clubs and you can expect something tasty in the rearranged furniture.

This is a game in hand for Cardiff and that means best case scenario, they could be promoted at Pride Park with just two games remaining after this one.

In fact, mathematically, they could be promoted before. Though,, working on the assumption they won’t be, planning for the worst, they need a point here.

There’s no real pressure because this one will be a game in hand and you’d like to think Cardiff will still possess a gap of three points or more over third place.





28th April – Hull City (Away)

Required result: Draw

Key fixtures: Aston Villa Vs Derby County, Fulham Vs Sunderland, Wolves Vs Sheffield Wednesday

Another tricky away clash arrives in the form of Hull City who have the players to beat anyone on their day, but their day hasn’t arrived very often this season.

Nonetheless, this will be a tricky test against a side who are still likely to be battling for their lives at the bottom. Those are the ones to look out for.

The Bluebirds are home on the final day so assuming they are still holding onto second spot, a point should be enough going into the final day.





6th May – Reading (Home)

Required result: Win

Key fixtures: Millwall Vs Aston Villa, Birmingham City Vs Fulham, Sunderland Vs Wolves

If it goes down to this final day, fingernails will be very short around South Wales. Though, fixtures elsewhere mean Cardiff would be favourites, even if they went into the game outside the top two.

Fulham face a trip to Birmingham, who may still be scrapping for survival and Villa go to Millwall, where very few teams have won this season.

Cardiff face Reading who also may be scrapping down the bottom but the home side should be immensely confident.

If promotion is on the line and that’s coupled with Cardiff’s home form – on paper – there’s only one winner here.






Points tally required – 90

The last time a team in the second division missed out on promotion to the top flight on 90 points was 20 years ago – Sunderland in 1998.

Given the recent form of Aston Villa and with Fulham even slipping up, it’s very unlikely they will reach that figure and the Bluebirds will be safe on 90.

It’s been enough to win the league for many a team in the last 20 years, Cardiff even did it on 87 in 2013, but the league title figure will be higher this season due to Wolves’ excellent campaign.

The required results above will yield Cardiff the 14 points they need to reach that figure but quite frankly, it makes no difference where they pick up the points, home or away, they just need to do it.





Can they go up with less than 90?

Of course. Aston Villa are only on course to reach 82 and Fulham to reach 87 but you just can’t predict football, and certainly not the Championship so to be safe, Warnock and his men had better start counting down the last 14 points to reach that 90-point total.
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Re: THE BIG RUN IN TO GET PROMOTED FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP

Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:34 am

' CHAMPIONSHIP TABLE 28TH MARCH 2018 ' :bluebird:
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Re: THE BIG RUN IN TO GET PROMOTED FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP

Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:53 am

Win on Fri cannot see either side overtaking us as we would be 3 wins and a draw ahead of them! Surely can get another 3 wins after that to make certain ? :occasion5:

Re: THE BIG RUN IN TO GET PROMOTED FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP

Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:20 am

where does he get 82 for Villa and 87 for Fulham?

Re: THE BIG RUN IN TO GET PROMOTED FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP

Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:34 am

I am not even looking at Wolves tbh, just the two behind us :bluebird:

Re: THE BIG RUN IN TO GET PROMOTED FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP

Wed Mar 28, 2018 8:37 am

counting wins from all their games remaining , I think? no chance imo. :ayatollah:

Re: THE BIG RUN IN TO GET PROMOTED FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP

Wed Mar 28, 2018 9:52 am

1980s Bluebird wrote:I am not even looking at Wolves tbh, just the two behind us :bluebird:



:thumbup: Same here !!!

Never try and predict the results in the Championship, just take every game as it comes, the next game is the most important, that's what Warnock will be telling the players !!!

Re: THE BIG RUN IN TO GET PROMOTED FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP

Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:07 am

Let's keep our feet on the floor. I remember them saying before xmas that no club with our points tally at that time had not been promoted etc. etc. That may still be the case, but with 4 defeats, we nearly blew it then! Let's make sure we do not have to sweat like that again!!! :ayatollah: :ayatollah:

Re: THE BIG RUN IN TO GET PROMOTED FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP

Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:00 pm

BLUE54 wrote:Let's keep our feet on the floor. I remember them saying before xmas that no club with our points tally at that time had not been promoted etc. etc. That may still be the case, but with 4 defeats, we nearly blew it then! Let's make sure we do not have to sweat like that again!!! :ayatollah: :ayatollah:


It's quite simple really. Even if Fulham and Villa win all their remaining 8 matches( highly unlikely) they will only have 93 pts. City win 6 of their remaining 9 matches will give them 94 points and promotion. I think we may get more than 18 points from our 9 remaining games but we should certainly average 2 points per game. Start to believe Bluebirds. :bluescarf: :ayatollah: :bluebird:

Re: THE BIG RUN IN TO GET PROMOTED FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP

Wed Mar 28, 2018 1:36 pm

FRIDAY IS MASSIVE ! a win on Friday will put us 10 points ahead of Fulham and Villa with everyone having 8 games left. that in turn will put massive pressure on those teams below us. They will know ( if they dont already) that they would need to win almost every game, its interesting to see that they both have to play the other form team in the division, Millwall.

Win our four home games, ( think we can do better than that) and we would have 89 points Fulham and Villa would then need to get 21 out of a possible 24 points available to overtake us. :occasion5:

Re: THE BIG RUN IN TO GET PROMOTED FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP

Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:27 pm

TERRYB wrote:
BLUE54 wrote:Let's keep our feet on the floor. I remember them saying before xmas that no club with our points tally at that time had not been promoted etc. etc. That may still be the case, but with 4 defeats, we nearly blew it then! Let's make sure we do not have to sweat like that again!!! :ayatollah: :ayatollah:


It's quite simple really. Even if Fulham and Villa win all their remaining 8 matches( highly unlikely) they will only have 93 pts. City win 6 of their remaining 9 matches will give them 94 points and promotion. I think we may get more than 18 points from our 9 remaining games but we should certainly average 2 points per game. Start to believe Bluebirds. :bluescarf: :ayatollah: :bluebird:

Yep, I know all the stats, BUT we have to play Sheff Utd,Villa, Norwich ,Derby & Hull away. NONE of which are "roll overs". Also a small matter of Wolves plus neither Burton, Forest nor new manager (and we know who) Reading are going to stand aside for us at home. It's fine to have confidence, but seen it done it & got the T shirt too. I am probably one of the few who remember when with 3 games left in 1971, we ONLY had to beat Sheff Utd away to get promotion to the top flight. We lost 5-1!!! and ended up 3rd. I know we are a different side now, but we were convinced we were going up then too. Let's make sure we do the business this time. No complacency!!! Just get to every game you can now. Just 9 to go and get them over the line. :thumbup: :bluescarf:

Re: THE BIG RUN IN TO GET PROMOTED FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP

Wed Mar 28, 2018 5:32 pm

BLUE54 wrote:
TERRYB wrote:
BLUE54 wrote:Let's keep our feet on the floor. I remember them saying before xmas that no club with our points tally at that time had not been promoted etc. etc. That may still be the case, but with 4 defeats, we nearly blew it then! Let's make sure we do not have to sweat like that again!!! :ayatollah: :ayatollah:


It's quite simple really. Even if Fulham and Villa win all their remaining 8 matches( highly unlikely) they will only have 93 pts. City win 6 of their remaining 9 matches will give them 94 points and promotion. I think we may get more than 18 points from our 9 remaining games but we should certainly average 2 points per game. Start to believe Bluebirds. :bluescarf: :ayatollah: :bluebird:

Yep, I know all the stats, BUT we have to play Sheff Utd,Villa, Norwich ,Derby & Hull away. NONE of which are "roll overs". Also a small matter of Wolves plus neither Burton, Forest nor new manager (and we know who) Reading are going to stand aside for us at home. It's fine to have confidence, but seen it done it & got the T shirt too. I am probably one of the few who remember when with 3 games left in 1971, we ONLY had to beat Sheff Utd away to get promotion to the top flight. We lost 5-1!!! and ended up 3rd. I know we are a different side now, but we were convinced we were going up then too. Let's make sure we do the business this time. No complacency!!! Just get to every game you can now. Just 9 to go and get them over the line. :thumbup: :bluescarf:


We can take a massive step by beating Burton cos it wouldn't surprise me if Fulham and Villa come unstuck away to Norwich and Hull respectively.

Re: THE BIG RUN IN TO GET PROMOTED FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP

Wed Mar 28, 2018 6:06 pm

Absolutely we can. When are Villa & Fulham playing? Is it tomorrow or Saturday?

Re: THE BIG RUN IN TO GET PROMOTED FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP

Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:19 pm

BLUE54 wrote:
TERRYB wrote:
BLUE54 wrote:Let's keep our feet on the floor. I remember them saying before xmas that no club with our points tally at that time had not been promoted etc. etc. That may still be the case, but with 4 defeats, we nearly blew it then! Let's make sure we do not have to sweat like that again!!! :ayatollah: :ayatollah:


It's quite simple really. Even if Fulham and Villa win all their remaining 8 matches( highly unlikely) they will only have 93 pts. City win 6 of their remaining 9 matches will give them 94 points and promotion. I think we may get more than 18 points from our 9 remaining games but we should certainly average 2 points per game. Start to believe Bluebirds. :bluescarf: :ayatollah: :bluebird:

Yep, I know all the stats, BUT we have to play Sheff Utd,Villa, Norwich ,Derby & Hull away. NONE of which are "roll overs". Also a small matter of Wolves plus neither Burton, Forest nor new manager (and we know who) Reading are going to stand aside for us at home. It's fine to have confidence, but seen it done it & got the T shirt too. I am probably one of the few who remember when with 3 games left in 1971, we ONLY had to beat Sheff Utd away to get promotion to the top flight. We lost 5-1!!! and ended up 3rd. I know we are a different side now, but we were convinced we were going up then too. Let's make sure we do the business this time. No complacency!!! Just get to every game you can now. Just 9 to go and get them over the line. :thumbup: :bluescarf:


Yes I remember that 1971 season too - and to add insult to injury we could have secured promotion the game before we had to go to Sheff Utd when we played already relegated Watford at Ninian Park but lost 1-0 so as you say nothing is certain in football!!

:bluescarf: :ayatollah: :bluescarf:

Re: THE BIG RUN IN TO GET PROMOTED FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP

Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:20 pm

BLUE54 wrote:
TERRYB wrote:
BLUE54 wrote:Let's keep our feet on the floor. I remember them saying before xmas that no club with our points tally at that time had not been promoted etc. etc. That may still be the case, but with 4 defeats, we nearly blew it then! Let's make sure we do not have to sweat like that again!!! :ayatollah: :ayatollah:


It's quite simple really. Even if Fulham and Villa win all their remaining 8 matches( highly unlikely) they will only have 93 pts. City win 6 of their remaining 9 matches will give them 94 points and promotion. I think we may get more than 18 points from our 9 remaining games but we should certainly average 2 points per game. Start to believe Bluebirds. :bluescarf: :ayatollah: :bluebird:

Yep, I know all the stats, BUT we have to play Sheff Utd,Villa, Norwich ,Derby & Hull away. NONE of which are "roll overs". Also a small matter of Wolves plus neither Burton, Forest nor new manager (and we know who) Reading are going to stand aside for us at home. It's fine to have confidence, but seen it done it & got the T shirt too. I am probably one of the few who remember when with 3 games left in 1971, we ONLY had to beat Sheff Utd away to get promotion to the top flight. We lost 5-1!!! and ended up 3rd. I know we are a different side now, but we were convinced we were going up then too. Let's make sure we do the business this time. No complacency!!! Just get to every game you can now. Just 9 to go and get them over the line. :thumbup: :bluescarf:


Yes I remember that 1971 season too - and to add insult to injury we could have secured promotion the game before we had to go to Sheff Utd when we played already relegated Watford at Ninian Park but lost 1-0 so as you say nothing is certain in football!!

:bluescarf: :ayatollah: :bluescarf:

Re: THE BIG RUN IN TO GET PROMOTED FROM THE CHAMPIONSHIP

Thu Mar 29, 2018 6:21 am

BLUE54 wrote:Absolutely we can. When are Villa & Fulham playing? Is it tomorrow or Saturday?


Fulham play away to Norwich on Friday and Villa play away to Hull on Saturday mate. Fingers crossed they both drop points, and we beat Burton. Terry