Points from the next 12 games

Looking at the run in now, I believe these are the REALISTIC results.

I'm aware it's impossible to really predict any result in the championship, but looking at it from a neutral point of view, considering our great home form, and our current form, we SHOULD get another 23 points. If you think I'm being too negative or positive, I'm not, I'm just trying to be realistic.

BRENTFORD v Cardiff (Loss) 0 points
CARDIFF v Barnsley (Win) 3 points
CARDIFF v Birmingham (Win) 3 points
Derby v Cardiff (Draw) 1 point
CARDIFF v Burton (Win) 3 points
Sheffield United v Cardiff (Draw) 1 point
Cardiff v WOLVES (Loss) 0 points
ASTON VILLA v Cardiff (Loss) 0 points
Norwich v CARDIFF (Win) 3 points
CARDIFF v Forest (Win) 3 points
Hull v CARDIFF (Win) 3 points
CARDIFF v Reading (Win) 3 points

7 wins
2 draws
3 losses

Total from 12 games - 23 out of 36 Points
Total from 46 games - 90 points

I think I'm being very fair in this assumption with the results. These games find a way of balancing out throughout the season so for example if we end up winning on Saturday, we'll probably end up losing one of the games I've predicted us to win. That's how the championship works sometimes... But also we could win every single game and this post can go do one. But for now, it's a bit of fun to find out our "realistic" chances of automatic promotion.

(Hypothetically) Cardiff are on 90 points at the end of the season.

Aston Villa currently have 63 points.
In order to overtake us at the end of the season - assuming we have the better goal difference - they will need another 28 points from the remaining 36.

That could look like this

Wins - 8
Draws - 4
Losses - 0

or

Wins - 9
Draws - 1
Losses - 2

When you look at it this way, it really does make Aston Villa look the least favourite...after all, I personally think my "realistic" prediction of Cardiff's next 12 results are based off a neutral pundit sitting on the fence. But as a City fan I'm certain we can achieve more than 23 points. And every points extra we achieve it makes Villas chance of overtaking us that much less likely...

Do you see where I'm coming from? It's not just in our hands, it's probably that we will finish Second (or first if we manage to beat Wolves at our ground!) Can you see City getting any lower than 23 points? And if not, can you really see Villa winning 9 of their next 12 games? I'm sure when we get the next 2 games out of the way, the table will tell us a lot more...

In my opinion, 2 more losses for Villa and they are OUT OF HERE

In the season we were promoted we only gained 17pts from our last 12 games.

After 34 games we had 70pts only 3 more than now.

We were promoted as Champions with 87pts.

Will 6 wins and 2 draws be enough?

A neutral would say with the exception of Wolves all our home games are winable whilst almost all our away games are loseable, however we tend to struggle against the weaker sides like the losses at Brum and Bolton but fare better against the stronger sides. I do think your assumptions are fair but we never win in Norwich but as you say will pick up those points elsewhere

It's football, anything can happen.
The stats don't mean anything untill after games have been played.

It's football, anything can happen.
The stats don't mean anything untill after games have been played.

This statement should be in the footballs gospel.

I think 20 pts makes us 2nd place as long as we get a draw at villa

There's no way we will lose at home to wanky wanderers.

Tough games away at Derby, Villa, Brentford and Norwich but we will pick up enough points for autos IMO