The Swansea job -LAID BARE!

I just thought that this might help get things in perspective for people wondering if we are likely to get a Derby game and an extra 6 points next season.

The first thing you’ll notice about staying in the Prem is that the “magic 40-point mark” – holy grail of managers from Sam Allardyce to Roberto Martinez – is actually an illusion. Over the last 19 seasons, 40 points is usually more than enough for survival. Last season, West Ham finished with 40 points and finished 13th.

The trouble is that every so often, 40 points isn’t enough. In 2002/03, one team – West Ham, the poor sods – were relegated with 42 points. Obviously, that’s very rare. But can we measure how rare it is?

***BORING MATHS ALERT***

In the history of the 20-team Premier League, 12 clubs have finished on 41 points. All of them stayed up. Does that mean if you get 41 points, you’re guaranteed to stay up? Not quite, because if (hypothetically) you happened to get 41 points in the season that West Ham were relegated with 42 points, then you were going down with them.

So to get a better idea of probability, we can use cumulative and reverse cumulative totals to generate an implied chance of survival, given a certain number of points.

There’s no real way to explain this without sounding like one of those old dead guys from the Open University, but here’s a very simple stab: over the years, 45 teams have scored 41 points or fewer (that’s the important bit) and stayed up. Only one team has scored 41 points or more, and gone down. Therefore the implied probability is 45/46, or 97.8 per cent. It’s not foolproof, but it’s the best we can do with the current data.

***BORING MATHS ENDS***

So here we are. And you’ll notice that the magic number is 37. Getting to 37 points turns the odds of survival in your favour. In fact, you can see how much truth there is in the old maxim that every point counts. Simply going from 35 to 37 points – turning just a single draw into a win – almost quadruples a team’s chances of staying up.

So based on this we can say...

Swansea have 20 games to go and sit on 12 points having played 18. This means in a league with many weak teams to stand much chance at all they still probably need to hit at least 37 points so need to score at least 25 points in their remaining games. This still does not gurantee safety but.

They have to go from 0.67 points per game to 1.25 to stand much chance at all!

The other extreme would be 43 points which is the minimum margin that nobody has been relegated on. (Westham got relegated on 42 points once)

This would mean that they would need 31 points or 1.55 points per game which would virtually gurantee them safety the way the league is this year!

This means they need to average roughly somewhere between 1.25 and 1.55 points per game to stay up when they are curently averaging 0.67!

You need to also factor in that as the season continues and the pressure builds points will only get harder to find not easier!

So realisticaly they probably need somewhere between 37 to 43 points in total to stay up. Another 25 to 31 points from the remaining 20 games, thats basically like going from relegation form to top 8 form!

Over 20 games thats somewhere between...

6 wins 7 draws and 7 losses in 20 games.

and

8 wins 7 draws and 5 losses in 20 games.

After 3 wins 3 draws and 12 losses in 18 games.

To survive!

This is the task their new Manager has to keep them
up!

On top of this they curently have the 2nd lowest goal difference in the league which looks set to stay that way or worse! This could be equal to another point so is worth noting as every point is now crucial!

Of course you have to consider also that they could stay up with a record low number of points to stay in the Premier league! The fewest number of points in a season while surviving relegation was 34, West Bromwich Albion (2004–05)

They would only need another 21 points to beat this meaning 1.05 points per game which is still a big jump from 0.67!

Information taken from
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/footba ... ay-up.html

Looking at January's fixtures and their lightweight defence I can't see them getting a point in January New manager or not.

Any chanceofworkingout what we wouldneed . To do to makeplay offs just for . Funof . Course

Any chanceofworkingout what we wouldneed . To do to makeplay offs just for . Funof . Course

11 new players and a miracle.

Sounds a big ask reading that, after Bournemouth home they have 2 tough away games which could sink them if they lose both. If they lose to Bournemouth then that's it imo.

Any chanceofworkingout what we wouldneed . To do to makeplay offs just for . Funof . Course

looking at the table at the half way mark the play off spots are occupied by teams with 40 pts or more if that doubles its 80pts required. i think 76 as a minimum. so 52 pts of 23 games.more points than newcastle and brighton managed in the first half of the season.
when NW arrived we had played 11 ,had 8 pts. only one team has even finnished top half off such a poor first quarter since the championship began.

its been about staying up then having a go next year.

Love the way that Twitter page @Cardifference is lumping into Swansea City.

Another thing to look at, and that is only about two teams have avoided relegation after being bottom at Xmas (technically are bottom ) so not only the points that are against them?

Another thing to look at, and that is only about two teams have avoided relegation after being bottom at Xmas (technically are bottom ) so not only the points that are against them?

They aren't bottom.

Another thing to look at, and that is only about two teams have avoided relegation after being bottom at Xmas (technically are bottom ) so not only the points that are against them?

They aren't bottom.

Ooopps forgot they share bottom place with hull same points though bit better goal difference !
That makes such a massive difference to my point ??

Ooopps forgot they share bottom place with hull same points though bit better goal difference !
That makes such a massive difference to my point ??

They aren't sharing bottom place though, Hull are 20th outright. It probably makes all the difference to your pont if you are using the whole well known bottom at Xmas thing, as the data is collated by each team that occupies 20th place in the league at Xmas.. Not 20th and 19th. If you add those that are 19th and 20th at Xmas then you will probably get a whole load more teams that survived than "about 2".

But they have a crap team and well odds against at staying up, thats all that needs to be said and I guess the essence to your point. Of which I agree.

Great stats, can't believe I read all that, in a nutshell let's hope they f**k it up monumentally ,

Bout time they came down, we had more points at the halfway point when we were in that league i think than they have now

Just looked at some of the scums fixtures....

February was like our January in the premier for them while palace have 3 much easier games, but won't get to excited cos the jammy sods will probably stay up