I agree with you that Derby are the more likely to drop out, and I think they will. I think Sheffield Wednesday will have just enough to keep in there. Our trip to Hillsborough will be interesting though

As for which team would replace Derby, I think it'll be between us and Ipswich (I can't see Birmingham getting enough points to catch up even with a game in hand at home to Leeds). I can't decide which of us is more likely, we both seem to have good spells with the odd slip up!
These last few games are going to be good to watch, hopefully with it ending well for us