Cardiff City Forum



A forum for all things Cardiff City

' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 6:49 am

' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing One Place 6th? '

Derby won on Wednesday night to make it 8pts between us and them.
I believe there are 5 teams including us chasing that 6th place including Sheff Wednesday who are 5pts ahead of us.

We can't afford to lose to Preston on Saturday,as they would actually go ahead of us and in fact its a must win game, as games are running out and we can't afford any other teams going further ahead of us on points.

So get yourselves down there tomorrow for a very exciting and important game, no more excuses :ayatollah: :bluebird: :bluescarf: :bluebird:
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 8:34 am

Going to be close for the last play off place probably right to the end but teams that start to pull away now will not be caught

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 8:55 am

I think the last 2 places are pretty open to any team putting together a good run of wins.

Any team with the ability to put together a run of 3 wins in 4 games will certainly put themselves in a good position to strike. Unfortunately we don't seem to be able to string together 2 performances never mind 3 out of 4 !!

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:00 am

With the odd exception clubs who reach the playoffs have won 54 points after 34 games and right now only 8 clubs can reach that total. In the last 13 years there have been odd exceptions to that stat with Palace (50) and Blackpool (47) being the best examples.

In 2008/09 we had 59 points after 34 games but imploded, 1 point from the last 12, and lost out on 6th place to Preston by a single goal, that season Preston were on 53 points after 34 games.

We are in the area of mathematical possibility, even with 13 games remaining, but if Derby beat Wolves tomorrow that will see those on 60 points so the only target left for us will be 6th.

So perm any one from 5 (Sheff Wed, Ipswich, Birmingham, Cardiff & Preston) for that final place. Of those clubs one has appeared in the most end of season playoffs, Preston with 10, let's hope they are not on a run to make this season number 11.

An absolute MUST win game tomorrow or I'm afraid the fat lady will be singing for us this season.


:bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf:

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:11 am

more likely to finish 10th than 6th! I suppose it's not completely iut of the question to win 2 games in-a-row, or is it? :laughing6:

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:25 am

castleblue wrote:With the odd exception clubs who reach the playoffs have won 54 points after 34 games and right now only 8 clubs can reach that total. In the last 13 years there have been odd exceptions to that stat with Palace (50) and Blackpool (47) being the best examples.

In 2008/09 we had 59 points after 34 games but imploded, 1 point from the last 12, and lost out on 6th place to Preston by a single goal, that season Preston were on 53 points after 34 games.

We are in the area of mathematical possibility, even with 13 games remaining, but if Derby beat Wolves tomorrow that will see those on 60 points so the only target left for us will be 6th.

So perm any one from 5 (Sheff Wed, Ipswich, Birmingham, Cardiff & Preston) for that final place. Of those clubs one has appeared in the most end of season playoffs, Preston with 10, let's hope they are not on a run to make this season number 11.

An absolute MUST win game tomorrow or I'm afraid the fat lady will be singing for us this season.


:bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf:



its not a maths game though is it, so all of the above is irrelevent

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:30 am

Sheffield Wednesday go to Hull tonight.

If they lose that, which you'd expect, then a win tomorrow will take us within touching distance of them. Obviously Birmingham are still in between us and them but the best they can do this weekend is go level with Sheffield Wednesday - although they do still have a game in hand on us and Wednesday.

So a Hull win tonight, coupled with a win for us tomorrow - which is also no foregone conclusion admittedly - and we'll be right back in the mix.

Bet Sheffield Wednesday will go and win tonight now :lol:

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:35 am

paulh_85 wrote:
castleblue wrote:With the odd exception clubs who reach the playoffs have won 54 points after 34 games and right now only 8 clubs can reach that total. In the last 13 years there have been odd exceptions to that stat with Palace (50) and Blackpool (47) being the best examples.

In 2008/09 we had 59 points after 34 games but imploded, 1 point from the last 12, and lost out on 6th place to Preston by a single goal, that season Preston were on 53 points after 34 games.

We are in the area of mathematical possibility, even with 13 games remaining, but if Derby beat Wolves tomorrow that will see those on 60 points so the only target left for us will be 6th.

So perm any one from 5 (Sheff Wed, Ipswich, Birmingham, Cardiff & Preston) for that final place. Of those clubs one has appeared in the most end of season playoffs, Preston with 10, let's hope they are not on a run to make this season number 11.

An absolute MUST win game tomorrow or I'm afraid the fat lady will be singing for us this season.

Probability involves maths :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:


:bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf:



its not a maths game though is it, so all of the above is irrelevent

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:37 am

paulh_85 wrote:
castleblue wrote:With the odd exception clubs who reach the playoffs have won 54 points after 34 games and right now only 8 clubs can reach that total. In the last 13 years there have been odd exceptions to that stat with Palace (50) and Blackpool (47) being the best examples.

In 2008/09 we had 59 points after 34 games but imploded, 1 point from the last 12, and lost out on 6th place to Preston by a single goal, that season Preston were on 53 points after 34 games.

We are in the area of mathematical possibility, even with 13 games remaining, but if Derby beat Wolves tomorrow that will see those on 60 points so the only target left for us will be 6th.

So perm any one from 5 (Sheff Wed, Ipswich, Birmingham, Cardiff & Preston) for that final place. Of those clubs one has appeared in the most end of season playoffs, Preston with 10, let's hope they are not on a run to make this season number 11.

An absolute MUST win game tomorrow or I'm afraid the fat lady will be singing for us this season.



its not a maths game though is it, so all of the above is irrelevent


Probability involves maths, how do you think successful gamblers become successful :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 11:01 am

ThomasC wrote:
paulh_85 wrote:
castleblue wrote:With the odd exception clubs who reach the playoffs have won 54 points after 34 games and right now only 8 clubs can reach that total. In the last 13 years there have been odd exceptions to that stat with Palace (50) and Blackpool (47) being the best examples.

In 2008/09 we had 59 points after 34 games but imploded, 1 point from the last 12, and lost out on 6th place to Preston by a single goal, that season Preston were on 53 points after 34 games.

We are in the area of mathematical possibility, even with 13 games remaining, but if Derby beat Wolves tomorrow that will see those on 60 points so the only target left for us will be 6th.

So perm any one from 5 (Sheff Wed, Ipswich, Birmingham, Cardiff & Preston) for that final place. Of those clubs one has appeared in the most end of season playoffs, Preston with 10, let's hope they are not on a run to make this season number 11.

An absolute MUST win game tomorrow or I'm afraid the fat lady will be singing for us this season.



its not a maths game though is it, so all of the above is irrelevent


Probability involves maths, how do you think successful gamblers become successful :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:



this isnt gambling though its football :lol:

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 11:11 am

paulh_85 wrote:
ThomasC wrote:
paulh_85 wrote:
castleblue wrote:With the odd exception clubs who reach the playoffs have won 54 points after 34 games and right now only 8 clubs can reach that total. In the last 13 years there have been odd exceptions to that stat with Palace (50) and Blackpool (47) being the best examples.

In 2008/09 we had 59 points after 34 games but imploded, 1 point from the last 12, and lost out on 6th place to Preston by a single goal, that season Preston were on 53 points after 34 games.

We are in the area of mathematical possibility, even with 13 games remaining, but if Derby beat Wolves tomorrow that will see those on 60 points so the only target left for us will be 6th.

So perm any one from 5 (Sheff Wed, Ipswich, Birmingham, Cardiff & Preston) for that final place. Of those clubs one has appeared in the most end of season playoffs, Preston with 10, let's hope they are not on a run to make this season number 11.

An absolute MUST win game tomorrow or I'm afraid the fat lady will be singing for us this season.



its not a maths game though is it, so all of the above is irrelevent


Probability involves maths, how do you think successful gamblers become successful :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:



this isnt gambling though its football :lol:


ok Paul keep believing probability has nothing to do with maths, no skin off my nose :laughing6:

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 11:18 am

where did i say probability has nothing to do with maths. :?


i could have told you we were in the "area of possibility" without trying to look like an expert statistician just by showing you the league table.


People love a stat, but the amount of points with twelve games to go is relatively meaningless

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 11:31 am

paulh_85 wrote:where did i say probability has nothing to do with maths. :?


i could have told you we were in the "area of possibility" without trying to look like an expert statistician just by showing you the league table.


People love a stat, but the amount of points with twelve games to go is relatively meaningless


fair point, but, you can't discount some of the 'meaningless' stats such as PNE who seem to get to play-offs and have a history in reaching them.

Is it because there is less pressure on the players? Maybe they have players who have handled the last few games of the season better than other players to get there. For instance, none of our players have play-off success on the CV or reached them at other clubs. Matt Connelly (exception?) Marshall/Whitts lost Blackpool game and is the only one left from that era. None of our players have a history of winning anything in truth, our Championship promotion team has all but departed us now, (Whitts, Marshall, any others?)

PNE may have players regarded as 'weaker' etc, but, some of them have winners medals, have handled pressure as the stats show. The club is successful in making play-offs, as the stats show. This is where probability is factored in to a head-to-head duel. That's my take from the post you dismissed.

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 11:54 am

ThomasC wrote:
paulh_85 wrote:where did i say probability has nothing to do with maths. :?


i could have told you we were in the "area of possibility" without trying to look like an expert statistician just by showing you the league table.


People love a stat, but the amount of points with twelve games to go is relatively meaningless


fair point, but, you can't discount some of the 'meaningless' stats such as PNE who seem to get to play-offs and have a history in reaching them.

Is it because there is less pressure on the players? Maybe they have players who have handled the last few games of the season better than other players to get there. For instance, none of our players have play-off success on the CV or reached them at other clubs. Matt Connelly (exception?) Marshall/Whitts lost Blackpool game and is the only one left from that era. None of our players have a history of winning anything in truth, our Championship promotion team has all but departed us now, (Whitts, Marshall, any others?)

PNE may have players regarded as 'weaker' etc, but, some of them have winners medals, have handled pressure as the stats show. The club is successful in making play-offs, as the stats show. This is where probability is factored in to a head-to-head duel. That's my take from the post you dismissed.



or maybe its because Preston had a good side for a number of years but not good enough to go up automatically :lol:


the fact that Preston pipped us to a playoff place about 7 or 8 seasons ago has no bearing on this season.

Your right, none of our players have won anything except for Marshall, Connolly, Morrison, Turner, Whittingham, Gunnarsson, Noone, Dikgachoi, Pilkington, O'Keefe, and ralls, who have all won promotion in their careers, most of whom to the premiership.

Stats are all well and great, but its just overkill sometimes.

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 12:19 pm

To be honest, I don't think our current squad is good enough for the Premier League. If we can get 7th/8th by the end of the season then I'd see that as a success. :ayatollah:

Especially considering we haven't spent nearly as much as some of the teams above us and have made a profit of 3.8 million this year. :bluescarf:

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 12:53 pm

paulh_85 wrote:
castleblue wrote:With the odd exception clubs who reach the playoffs have won 54 points after 34 games and right now only 8 clubs can reach that total. In the last 13 years there have been odd exceptions to that stat with Palace (50) and Blackpool (47) being the best examples.

In 2008/09 we had 59 points after 34 games but imploded, 1 point from the last 12, and lost out on 6th place to Preston by a single goal, that season Preston were on 53 points after 34 games.

We are in the area of mathematical possibility, even with 13 games remaining, but if Derby beat Wolves tomorrow that will see those on 60 points so the only target left for us will be 6th.

So perm any one from 5 (Sheff Wed, Ipswich, Birmingham, Cardiff & Preston) for that final place. Of those clubs one has appeared in the most end of season playoffs, Preston with 10, let's hope they are not on a run to make this season number 11.

An absolute MUST win game tomorrow or I'm afraid the fat lady will be singing for us this season.


:bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf:



its not a maths game though is it, so all of the above is irrelevent



There is a clear correlation between points won after 34 games and the eventual finishing position of clubs in the Championship, or any of the other leagues in the football pyramid, so I don't quite see how you can dismiss the statistics are irrelevent.

Year after year after year the number of points required to reach the playoffs is within a range of 70 -78 points with the average of 73 points for 6th place. So far this season we have taken 49% of the points available and to reach the 6th place average we now need to take 66% of the points available, is that possible - YES, but is it probable.

It is a fact that PNE have reached playoffs more often than any other club and right now they are in excellent form having taken 76% of the points availableover the last 10 matches and if they continue that over their remaining games they will reach around 78 points. Again is that possible - Yes, but it is probable. Right now I wouldn't bet against them.

Win tomorrow and we will be right back in the mix to fill that 6th place position but to ensure that we have to improve on the 49% statistic for points won. There in lies the correlation between mathematics, statistics and competitive sport like football.

:bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf:

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 1:05 pm

castleblue wrote:
paulh_85 wrote:
castleblue wrote:With the odd exception clubs who reach the playoffs have won 54 points after 34 games and right now only 8 clubs can reach that total. In the last 13 years there have been odd exceptions to that stat with Palace (50) and Blackpool (47) being the best examples.

In 2008/09 we had 59 points after 34 games but imploded, 1 point from the last 12, and lost out on 6th place to Preston by a single goal, that season Preston were on 53 points after 34 games.

We are in the area of mathematical possibility, even with 13 games remaining, but if Derby beat Wolves tomorrow that will see those on 60 points so the only target left for us will be 6th.

So perm any one from 5 (Sheff Wed, Ipswich, Birmingham, Cardiff & Preston) for that final place. Of those clubs one has appeared in the most end of season playoffs, Preston with 10, let's hope they are not on a run to make this season number 11.

An absolute MUST win game tomorrow or I'm afraid the fat lady will be singing for us this season.


:bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf:



its not a maths game though is it, so all of the above is irrelevent



There is a clear correlation between points won after 34 games and the eventual finishing position of clubs in the Championship, or any of the other leagues in the football pyramid, so I don't quite see how you can dismiss the statistics are irrelevent.

Year after year after year the number of points required to reach the playoffs is within a range of 70 -78 points with the average of 73 points for 6th place. So far this season we have taken 49% of the points available and to reach the 6th place average we now need to take 66% of the points available, is that possible - YES, but is it probable.

It is a fact that PNE have reached playoffs more often than any other club and right now they are in excellent form having taken 76% of the points availableover the last 10 matches and if they continue that over their remaining games they will reach around 78 points. Again is that possible - Yes, but it is probable. Right now I wouldn't bet against them.

Win tomorrow and we will be right back in the mix to fill that 6th place position but to ensure that we have to improve on the 49% statistic for points won. There in lies the correlation between mathematics, statistics and competitive sport like football.

:bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf:




you started off ok then went waaay overboard as usual :lol:

of course theres a correlation between points after 34 games of the season and the finishing position in the championship. you take the best, lets say 8, teams after 75% of the season and it stands to reason they will pretty much be the top 8 at the end of the league. common sense will tell you that without having to scratch around for non specific stats. I mean youve even said it yourself, teams who reach the playoffs usually have 54 points from 34 games... except for the times they dont :lol:

you dont need to work out amount a percentage of points got this season i dont know why you waste your time doing it. Just look at the league table it tells you in black and white that we need to improve without the use of a calculator.

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 1:09 pm

paulh_85 wrote:
castleblue wrote:
paulh_85 wrote:
castleblue wrote:With the odd exception clubs who reach the playoffs have won 54 points after 34 games and right now only 8 clubs can reach that total. In the last 13 years there have been odd exceptions to that stat with Palace (50) and Blackpool (47) being the best examples.

In 2008/09 we had 59 points after 34 games but imploded, 1 point from the last 12, and lost out on 6th place to Preston by a single goal, that season Preston were on 53 points after 34 games.

We are in the area of mathematical possibility, even with 13 games remaining, but if Derby beat Wolves tomorrow that will see those on 60 points so the only target left for us will be 6th.

So perm any one from 5 (Sheff Wed, Ipswich, Birmingham, Cardiff & Preston) for that final place. Of those clubs one has appeared in the most end of season playoffs, Preston with 10, let's hope they are not on a run to make this season number 11.

An absolute MUST win game tomorrow or I'm afraid the fat lady will be singing for us this season.


:bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf:



its not a maths game though is it, so all of the above is irrelevent



There is a clear correlation between points won after 34 games and the eventual finishing position of clubs in the Championship, or any of the other leagues in the football pyramid, so I don't quite see how you can dismiss the statistics are irrelevent.

Year after year after year the number of points required to reach the playoffs is within a range of 70 -78 points with the average of 73 points for 6th place. So far this season we have taken 49% of the points available and to reach the 6th place average we now need to take 66% of the points available, is that possible - YES, but is it probable.

It is a fact that PNE have reached playoffs more often than any other club and right now they are in excellent form having taken 76% of the points availableover the last 10 matches and if they continue that over their remaining games they will reach around 78 points. Again is that possible - Yes, but it is probable. Right now I wouldn't bet against them.

Win tomorrow and we will be right back in the mix to fill that 6th place position but to ensure that we have to improve on the 49% statistic for points won. There in lies the correlation between mathematics, statistics and competitive sport like football.

:bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf:




you started off ok then went waaay overboard as usual :lol:

of course theres a correlation between points after 34 games of the season and the finishing position in the championship. you take the best, lets say 8, teams after 75% of the season and it stands to reason they will pretty much be the top 8 at the end of the league. common sense will tell you that without having to scratch around for non specific stats. I mean youve even said it yourself, teams who reach the playoffs usually have 54 points from 34 games... except for the times they dont :lol:

you dont need to work out amount a percentage of points got this season i dont know why you waste your time doing it. Just look at the league table it tells you in black and white that we need to improve without the use of a calculator.


Only 2 clubs of the last 42 who have reached the Championship playoffs have done so with fewer than 54 points after 34 games.

Interesting statistic that.


:bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf:

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 1:22 pm

its a complete non statistic that tells you nothing about the current season.


but i guess we will have to agree to disagree


also, who are these teams?

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 1:49 pm

castleblue wrote:Only 2 clubs of the last 42 who have reached the Championship playoffs have done so with fewer than 54 points after 34 games.

Interesting statistic that.


:bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf:



what sort of number is 42 when 4 teams reach the playoffs every season, ill assume your talking about the last 11 years (44 teams)

2004/5
Preston: 53 points from 34 games

2007/8
Palace: 46 points from 34 games
Hull 50 points from 34 games

2008/9
Preston 53 points from 34 games
Burnley 52 points from 34 games

2009/10
cardiff 52 points from 34 games
Blackpool 47 points from 34 games

2010/11
Reading: 48 points from 34 games

2013/14
Brighton 53 points from 34 games


first rule of stat club, if your going to create your own make sure theyre correct :lol:

Weve even done it ourselves ffs!

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 3:24 pm

paulh_85 wrote:
castleblue wrote:
paulh_85 wrote:
castleblue wrote:With the odd exception clubs who reach the playoffs have won 54 points after 34 games and right now only 8 clubs can reach that total. In the last 13 years there have been odd exceptions to that stat with Palace (50) and Blackpool (47) being the best examples.

In 2008/09 we had 59 points after 34 games but imploded, 1 point from the last 12, and lost out on 6th place to Preston by a single goal, that season Preston were on 53 points after 34 games.

We are in the area of mathematical possibility, even with 13 games remaining, but if Derby beat Wolves tomorrow that will see those on 60 points so the only target left for us will be 6th.

So perm any one from 5 (Sheff Wed, Ipswich, Birmingham, Cardiff & Preston) for that final place. Of those clubs one has appeared in the most end of season playoffs, Preston with 10, let's hope they are not on a run to make this season number 11.

An absolute MUST win game tomorrow or I'm afraid the fat lady will be singing for us this season.


:bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf:



its not a maths game though is it, so all of the above is irrelevent



There is a clear correlation between points won after 34 games and the eventual finishing position of clubs in the Championship, or any of the other leagues in the football pyramid, so I don't quite see how you can dismiss the statistics are irrelevent.

Year after year after year the number of points required to reach the playoffs is within a range of 70 -78 points with the average of 73 points for 6th place. So far this season we have taken 49% of the points available and to reach the 6th place average we now need to take 66% of the points available, is that possible - YES, but is it probable.

It is a fact that PNE have reached playoffs more often than any other club and right now they are in excellent form having taken 76% of the points availableover the last 10 matches and if they continue that over their remaining games they will reach around 78 points. Again is that possible - Yes, but it is probable. Right now I wouldn't bet against them.

Win tomorrow and we will be right back in the mix to fill that 6th place position but to ensure that we have to improve on the 49% statistic for points won. There in lies the correlation between mathematics, statistics and competitive sport like football.

:bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf:




you started off ok then went waaay overboard as usual :lol:

of course theres a correlation between points after 34 games of the season and the finishing position in the championship. you take the best, lets say 8, teams after 75% of the season and it stands to reason they will pretty much be the top 8 at the end of the league. common sense will tell you that without having to scratch around for non specific stats. I mean youve even said it yourself, teams who reach the playoffs usually have 54 points from 34 games... except for the times they dont :lol:

you dont need to work out amount a percentage of points got this season i dont know why you waste your time doing it. Just look at the league table it tells you in black and white that we need to improve without the use of a calculator.

Castleblue wastes his time providing stats because there are a number geek :geek: posters like myself who love reading them but can't be arsed to look them up :D

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 3:31 pm

Only a win tomorrow :ayatollah:

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 3:32 pm

Only a win tomorrow :ayatollah:

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 3:41 pm

Tony Blue Williams wrote:
paulh_85 wrote:
castleblue wrote:
paulh_85 wrote:
castleblue wrote:With the odd exception clubs who reach the playoffs have won 54 points after 34 games and right now only 8 clubs can reach that total. In the last 13 years there have been odd exceptions to that stat with Palace (50) and Blackpool (47) being the best examples.

In 2008/09 we had 59 points after 34 games but imploded, 1 point from the last 12, and lost out on 6th place to Preston by a single goal, that season Preston were on 53 points after 34 games.

We are in the area of mathematical possibility, even with 13 games remaining, but if Derby beat Wolves tomorrow that will see those on 60 points so the only target left for us will be 6th.

So perm any one from 5 (Sheff Wed, Ipswich, Birmingham, Cardiff & Preston) for that final place. Of those clubs one has appeared in the most end of season playoffs, Preston with 10, let's hope they are not on a run to make this season number 11.

An absolute MUST win game tomorrow or I'm afraid the fat lady will be singing for us this season.


:bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf:



its not a maths game though is it, so all of the above is irrelevent



There is a clear correlation between points won after 34 games and the eventual finishing position of clubs in the Championship, or any of the other leagues in the football pyramid, so I don't quite see how you can dismiss the statistics are irrelevent.

Year after year after year the number of points required to reach the playoffs is within a range of 70 -78 points with the average of 73 points for 6th place. So far this season we have taken 49% of the points available and to reach the 6th place average we now need to take 66% of the points available, is that possible - YES, but is it probable.

It is a fact that PNE have reached playoffs more often than any other club and right now they are in excellent form having taken 76% of the points availableover the last 10 matches and if they continue that over their remaining games they will reach around 78 points. Again is that possible - Yes, but it is probable. Right now I wouldn't bet against them.

Win tomorrow and we will be right back in the mix to fill that 6th place position but to ensure that we have to improve on the 49% statistic for points won. There in lies the correlation between mathematics, statistics and competitive sport like football.

:bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf:




you started off ok then went waaay overboard as usual :lol:

of course theres a correlation between points after 34 games of the season and the finishing position in the championship. you take the best, lets say 8, teams after 75% of the season and it stands to reason they will pretty much be the top 8 at the end of the league. common sense will tell you that without having to scratch around for non specific stats. I mean youve even said it yourself, teams who reach the playoffs usually have 54 points from 34 games... except for the times they dont :lol:

you dont need to work out amount a percentage of points got this season i dont know why you waste your time doing it. Just look at the league table it tells you in black and white that we need to improve without the use of a calculator.

Castleblue wastes his time providing stats because there are a number geek :geek: posters like myself who love reading them but can't be arsed to look them up :D



lets hope he gets them right next time then :lol:

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 4:54 pm

castleblue wrote:With the odd exception clubs who reach the playoffs have won 54 points after 34 games and right now only 8 clubs can reach that total. In the last 13 years there have been odd exceptions to that stat with Palace (50) and Blackpool (47) being the best examples.

In 2008/09 we had 59 points after 34 games but imploded, 1 point from the last 12, and lost out on 6th place to Preston by a single goal, that season Preston were on 53 points after 34 games.

We are in the area of mathematical possibility, even with 13 games remaining, but if Derby beat Wolves tomorrow that will see those on 60 points so the only target left for us will be 6th.

So perm any one from 5 (Sheff Wed, Ipswich, Birmingham, Cardiff & Preston) for that final place. Of those clubs one has appeared in the most end of season playoffs, Preston with 10, let's hope they are not on a run to make this season number 11.

An absolute MUST win game tomorrow or I'm afraid the fat lady will be singing for us this season.


:bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf:




The fat lady don't sing until it's over! :thumbright:

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 5:53 pm

paulh_85 wrote:
Tony Blue Williams wrote:
paulh_85 wrote:
castleblue wrote:
paulh_85 wrote:
castleblue wrote:With the odd exception clubs who reach the playoffs have won 54 points after 34 games and right now only 8 clubs can reach that total. In the last 13 years there have been odd exceptions to that stat with Palace (50) and Blackpool (47) being the best examples.

In 2008/09 we had 59 points after 34 games but imploded, 1 point from the last 12, and lost out on 6th place to Preston by a single goal, that season Preston were on 53 points after 34 games.

We are in the area of mathematical possibility, even with 13 games remaining, but if Derby beat Wolves tomorrow that will see those on 60 points so the only target left for us will be 6th.

So perm any one from 5 (Sheff Wed, Ipswich, Birmingham, Cardiff & Preston) for that final place. Of those clubs one has appeared in the most end of season playoffs, Preston with 10, let's hope they are not on a run to make this season number 11.

An absolute MUST win game tomorrow or I'm afraid the fat lady will be singing for us this season.


:bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf:



its not a maths game though is it, so all of the above is irrelevent



There is a clear correlation between points won after 34 games and the eventual finishing position of clubs in the Championship, or any of the other leagues in the football pyramid, so I don't quite see how you can dismiss the statistics are irrelevent.

Year after year after year the number of points required to reach the playoffs is within a range of 70 -78 points with the average of 73 points for 6th place. So far this season we have taken 49% of the points available and to reach the 6th place average we now need to take 66% of the points available, is that possible - YES, but is it probable.

It is a fact that PNE have reached playoffs more often than any other club and right now they are in excellent form having taken 76% of the points availableover the last 10 matches and if they continue that over their remaining games they will reach around 78 points. Again is that possible - Yes, but it is probable. Right now I wouldn't bet against them.

Win tomorrow and we will be right back in the mix to fill that 6th place position but to ensure that we have to improve on the 49% statistic for points won. There in lies the correlation between mathematics, statistics and competitive sport like football.

:bluescarf: :bluescarf: :bluescarf:




you started off ok then went waaay overboard as usual :lol:

of course theres a correlation between points after 34 games of the season and the finishing position in the championship. you take the best, lets say 8, teams after 75% of the season and it stands to reason they will pretty much be the top 8 at the end of the league. common sense will tell you that without having to scratch around for non specific stats. I mean youve even said it yourself, teams who reach the playoffs usually have 54 points from 34 games... except for the times they dont :lol:

you dont need to work out amount a percentage of points got this season i dont know why you waste your time doing it. Just look at the league table it tells you in black and white that we need to improve without the use of a calculator.

Castleblue wastes his time providing stats because there are a number geek :geek: posters like myself who love reading them but can't be arsed to look them up :D



lets hope he gets them right next time then :lol:


Fairplay Paul, you caught Castleblue on a bad stat day. Let's hope he can do better stat-ur-day :ayatollah: :bluescarf:

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Fri Feb 26, 2016 7:35 pm

I see what you did there :lol:

Re: ' Are Cardiff City Really Only Chasing '

Sat Feb 27, 2016 12:37 pm

paulh_85 wrote:I see what you did there :lol:



Not very often I mess up but you kicked my arse but proper there. Convinced only Blackpool and Palace had done it in the last 11 years.

Well done.


:bluescarf: :bluescarf: