" ARE CARDIFF CITY ON COURSE? "

Are Cardiff City on course for promotion? The stats say 15 more points by Christmas would make them contenders

30 SEP 2015


BY ROB OWEN



Cardiff City have been here before. Get off to a good start and win promotion to the Premier League. But can history repeat itself?

Can Cardiff City's class of 2015/16 do it again?
After an impressive start to the season, which currently outweighs the expectations of many fans, the burning question for Cardiff City is this: What will the club need to do to stay in the top six?

Well, the good news is the Bluebirds have enjoyed the kind of points return that would have placed them comfortably in the top six at the same stage during any of the previous three seasons.

With four wins and three draws having netted 15 points, the same form in 2014/15 would have left them one place ahead of their current fifth position at the start of October, while they’d have also been sitting pretty, in fourth spot, in 2013/14.

Do you think Cardiff will go up?
YES
NO
More: What Cardiff City need to sustain a challenge


The season before sticks out in the minds of anyone connected with Cardiff City for blindingly obvious reasons; by the start of October 2012, Malky Mackay’s Bluebirds had bagged five wins and a draw en route to the Championship title, so compared to the here and now, they were just a solitary point better off.

Hull City and Palace meanwhile, who went on to finish second and fifth respectively, had reached the 15 point mark that Russell Slade’s outfit have achieved to date.

" Looking Good "

So all things considered, the signs are looking really pretty good.

But as many a good footballing cliche will tell you, it’s early days, a sprint as opposed to a marathon and that perhaps the first big snapshot from which we could really speculate as to who will finish in those prized top six spots will come at the turn of the year.

Looking again to the previous three seasons, of all the sides that have been in the Championship top six as we’ve been tucking into our Boxing Day turkey curry, Cardiff City have accrued by far the greatest points return – an outstanding 53 to be precise – during that monumental promotion season.

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To put that figure into context, Slade’s boys today would need to stack up 38 points from the next 15 games or to put it another way, drop just seven points in the league between now and the Queen’s Speech. No pressure then!

More realistically, perhaps, consider the average returns for a top six spot over those past three terms. In 2012/13, it stood at 44 points, a figure skewed somewhat by Cardiff City accumulating the small matter of 17 wins.


Twelve months later, the same average figure stands at 41 points while last term the average haul for the top six was 42.

More: Watch this week's live Cardiff City debate back

The long-winding road

So it’s fair to say then, that should the Bluebirds add anything over the 25 points mark from the next 15 games, then they will have reached the next milestone on the long, winding road back to the Premier League, a top six spot as we hang up the 2016 calendar.

So let’s say, for arguments sake, seven wins and four draws would be the order of the day from a fixture list that pitches the Bluebirds against, first and foremost, table-topping Brighton this weekend, in-form Reading, Middlesbrough and under-performers in the table to date like big-spending Derby County and Ipswich Town between now and when the last of the Bonfire Night fireworks are lit.


It’s tough but not impossible, particularly in view of the club’s fixtures in December, on current Championship form at least, looking relatively straightforward.

But of course, what really matters is how Slade’s boys will fare as we throw the season forward again into next year.

Christmas

Interestingly, if the Bluebirds can be there or thereabouts at Christmas, the stats show its been rare indeed over recent times for a team outside the top six at Christmas to break into the final six come May.

I have a feeling that we will go up this season - maybe via the play offs though

Still think after a long hard season we will Finnish in a respectable 12th place

30/09/2015

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Saturday’s opponents Brighton are among the exceptions. At Christmas 2012, the Seagulls had acquired something of a reputation as draw specialists with ten stalemates, in addition to the eight wins they’d also tucked under their belts, with Gus Poyet at the helm.


At around about the halfway point of the season, they had 34 points and were just outside of the play-off spots in eighth. It took a tremendous run-in which saw Albion lose only twice in their last 16 games for them to book their final standing of fourth.

Under the radar

But the moral of Brighton’s story is that, while it isn’t always the case that the six teams at the top at Christmas will always make up the top six in the final analysis, it’s been pretty much unheard of in recent times for a team to sneak right under the radar, having been miles from the top of the pile for much of the season, before landing a place among that prized final half dozen.
Annis Jnr Author and Publisher of 7 Books.

Still two players short of playoffs.

Also Slade is tactically naive .

On saying that so far so good.

It's a long season though.

Let's see how we do against Brighton that'll be a strong indication.

Still think after a long hard season we will Finnish in a respectable 12th place

I do not consider finishing 12th is anywhere being respectful, in my view it would be regarded by many on here as mediocrity and I hope Slade would as well

After the way we have started this campaign I will now be disappointed with anything less than the play-offs.That was the target at the start and for me it has become very realistic.
So yes we are on course

I think we have a good enough squad for a top six finish but sometimes Slade's team selection and substitutions do surprise and concern me. The fact we stick to 4,4,2 all the time is naive like last week against Charlton. When Gunnarson came on, I thought we would have put him in midfield to give us 5 and leave Amoebi upfront. If we finish in the top 8, I'll be relatively happy but think Slade will need to consider his position if we finish any lower.

Anything lower than play-offs is a disastrous season!

Anything lower than play-offs is a disastrous season!

I had a little look on Sunday where we were three years ago and I think we were on 21 points and on top of the table.

What really concerned me was Wolves were where we are now and Bristol city a few places below......

Both went down

I hate all this nonsense trying to work out points returns and averages, just go with it and see where it takes. You can't predict the championship

I hate all this nonsense trying to work out points returns and averages, just go with it and see where it takes. You can't predict the championship

Couldn't agree more.

I think top 10 would be an achievement with this team. But I think you can forget to play in the Premiership next season.