Its "Nailed On"

With just four games left four points will get 2nd place and 6 points will get 1st place. I think we will actually get 9-10 points with a wins in Cyrus, Home to Israel and Andora and a draw in Bosnia (we could even loss in Bosnia).

With both Israel & Bosnia having to go to Belgium they wont get anything there. as long as we stay unbeaten at home against Israel and Andora, we cannot be caught by the third placed team as Israel could only get 7 points and Bosnia also 7 points. I cannot see any other option than we are going to France!!!!!

6 points wont get us 1st

6 points wont get us 1st

no but Belgium would have to win all remaining games!
but it will get us second as 3 teams cant get maximum points! !

4 point might not be enough. Say we lose to Cyprus who then go on to win all their remaining games. Them and Belgium could overtake us.

Still twelve points to play for. Plenty can happen in the group still. In the Euro 2004 qualifiers, we took one point from the last four games. Still a lot to do.

in fairness, our last four games then were much tougher than our last four games now.

It's simple.

Beat Cyprus and Israel. Ok, it wouldn't guarantee it if Bosnia win in Brussels but I can't see us losing at home to Andorra.

in fairness, our last four games then were much tougher than our last four games now.

You're right, they were. Serbia & Montenegro home and away, Italy away, and Finland home.