" GREAT NEWS IF WE BEAT BELGIUM "

" Wales will be among top seeds for World Cup IF they can beat Belgium "

We can reveal Chris Coleman's side will be in Pot One for July's World Cup draw alongside Germany, Spain and England as long as they win their next match

Thursday 16th April 2015

Chris Coleman’s Wales will secure a coveted place among the top seeds in the draw for the 2018 World Cup qualifying groups – if they topple Belgium at Cardiff City Stadium in June.

The exploits of Gareth Bale and co in shooting to the top of their group in the race for a spot at next year’s European Championships sees them in line to be rewarded with a berth in Pot One when the draw for the global tournament is made in July.

Wales have rocketed to 22nd in FIFA’s world rankings following their brilliant 3-0 win against Israel in Haifa last month.

And victory against the Belgians on June 12th will be enough to earn them a place alongside the likes of world champions Germany, Spain and England in the St Petersburg draw for the Russian-hosted tournament in 2018, ensuring they avoid those superpowers in qualifying.

Wales have languished among the lower seeds in modern times when attempting to reach major finals, often ensuring a difficult draw and a mountain to climb to break the qualifying hoodoo even before a ball has been kicked.

Wales' historic night in Haifa

It is an incredible development in the recent success of the national side who were placed among the minnows in their last World Cup qualifying draw as they sunk to Pot Six for the first time, ranked alongside the likes of Luxembourg, Andorra and San Marino.

And it is thought to be the first time a nation will have risen from being bottom seeds to top between World Cup campaigns.

The seeded pots will not be confirmed until closer to the July 25 draw but they will be based on the Fifa rankings, allowing statisticians to make accurate calculated predictions on where teams will be placed.

And renowned rankings expert Eduard Ranghiu, who runs the authoritative wesbite on the subject (football-rankings.info), has confirmed to WalesOnline beating group favourites Belgium – themselves third in the world – is set to place Wales into that top spot where they will not budge before the World Cup qualifying draw, set to be attended by boss Coleman.

Friendlies also impact on the Fifa rankings system, although plans to face Northern Ireland in the build-up to Belgium have been scrapped.

Coleman’s men will gather for a ten-day training camp instead and while the chance of a seedings boost was not behind the decision to axe a warm-up game, it is a good enough reason for the FAW not to seek one.

As it stands, Wales are set to be placed into Pot Two – itself a hugely significant achievement and a highest seeding since rankings began in time for the 1994 World Cup – and should remain there even if they fail to beat Belgium when stars such as Eden Hazard and Marouane Fellaini head to Cardiff City Stadium for the June 12 sell-out.

Slovakia and the Czech Republic are also rivals to Wales’ attempt to move up into pot one which currently is set to include Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Romania, England, Portugal, Spain, Croatia and Italy.

However, if Wales beat Belgium they will earn enough rankings points to make it certain they enter Pot One due to the fact they will have beaten a side ranked third in the world.

The Fifa system is based on a formula that calculates the result, the importance of the game and the quality of opposition to generate rankings points for any individual match.

Croatia and Italy, the two teams currently occupying the final two spots among the top seeds face each other in a Euro 2016 Group H qualifier on the same night Wales play Belgium.

There are some big name teams in pot two, including France whose ranking has suffered having not played competitive games ahead of their hosting of next summer’s European Championship finals.

It is that which remains the priority for Wales with victory able to place Coleman’s men in a very strong position to take one of the two automatic qualifying spots with just four games remaining.

Yet the seeding boost for the World Cup and Welsh attempts to reach the biggest stage for the first time since 1958 would be a significant bonus.

CURRENT PREDICTED POTS
(As calculated by football-rankings.info based on simulations of June Euro 2016 qualifying fixtures and not considering potential friendlies).

POT ONE: Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Romania, England, Portugal, Spain, Croatia, Italy

POT TWO: Slovakia, Czech Republic, WALES, Austria, Switzerland, France, Poland, Denmark, Iceland

POT THREE: Scotland, Ukraine, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Northern Ireland, Sweden, Greece, Hungary, Israel

POT FOUR: Republic of Ireland, Slovenia, Albania, Turkey, Norway, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Finland, Armenia

POT FIVE: Estonia, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, FYR Macedonia, Cyprus, Azerbaijan, Faroe Islands, Moldova

POT SIX: Kazakhstan, Georgia, Malta, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, San Marino, Andorra

HOW IT WORKS
*Fifa rankings are to be used to decide the seeds for the 2018 qualifying draw, set to be held at Konstantinovsky Palace in St. Petersburg on July 25.

*Russia are not included as World Cup hosts

*Teams are seeded into six pots for the draw before being divided into nine groups (seven of six teams and two of five) with the winners of each group qualifying and the eight best runners-up going into the play-offs.

HOW THE FIFA RANKINGS WORK
The basic logic of these calculations is simple: any team that does well in world football wins points which enable it to climb the world ranking.

A team’s total number of points over a four-year period is determined by adding:

The average number of points gained from matches during the past 12 months; and
The average number of points gained from matches older than 12 months (depreciates yearly).

Calculation of points for a single match
The number of points that can be won in a match depends on the following factors:

Was the match won or drawn? (M)
How important was the match (ranging from a friendly match to a FIFA World Cup™ match)? (I)How strong was the opposing team in terms of ranking position and the confederation to which they belong? (T and C)
These factors are brought together in the following formula to ascertain the total number of points (P): P = M x I x T x C

The following criteria apply to the calculation of points:

M: Points for match result
Teams gain 3 points for a victory, 1 point for a draw and 0 points for a defeat. In a penalty shoot-out, the winning team gains 2 points and the losing team gains 1 point.

I: Importance of match
Friendly match (including small competitions): I = 1.0

FIFA World Cup™ qualifier or confederation-level qualifier: I = 2.5

Confederation-level final competition or FIFA Confederations Cup: I = 3.0

FIFA World Cup™ final competition: I = 4.0

T: Strength of opposing team
The strength of the opponents is based on the formula: 200 – the ranking position of the opponents. As an exception to this formula, the team at the top of the ranking is always assigned the value 200 and the teams ranked 150th and below are assigned a minimum value of 50. The ranking position is taken from the opponents’ ranking in the most recently published FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking.

C: Strength of confederation
When calculating matches between teams from different confederations, the mean value of the confederations to which the two competing teams belong is used. The strength of a confederation is calculated on the basis of the number of victories by that confederation at the last three FIFA World Cup™ competitions (see following page). Their values are as follows:

- CONMEBOL 1.00

- UEFA 0.99

- AFC/CAF/OFC/CONCACAF 0.85

I really can't wait for this game. I can't remember the last time i looked forward to a game as much as this one. A stadium full of passionate welsh fans, a team full of pride giving 100%, the middle of summer, so a good chance of it being beer weather, and a serious chance of all but guaranteeing our ticket to the euro finals with a win. I got a feeling its going to be a special night for wales and welsh sport

Great News

What an incentive, Cant wait for the match

Well done Wales speed started it and Coleman is finishing it off

Shame we wouldn't get England I would love to be in there group.

Great achievement even if we don't beat Belgium and end up in Pot 2 it's a massive achievement considering we were always around Pot 4 or lower

Great achievement even if we don't beat Belgium and end up in Pot 2 it's a massive achievement considering we were always around Pot 4 or lower

Exactly which makes it supposedly a lot easier

Can't wait for this game! Wales, wales, wales!,

i think this will be the match that brings us back down to earth, i predict at least a 3 goal margin, people are getting carried away.

but its good that we are moving up the seedings

Exciting times and what an incentive

i think this will be the match that brings us back down to earth, i predict at least a 3 goal margin, people are getting carried away.

but its good that we are moving up the seedings

I'm just praying we stay injury free from now till the game... Especially bale and Ramsey. If we do, then I think we will be more than a match for them, and with 30thousand pissed up maniac taffs behind our players, we could even nick a win

Well done Wales speed started it and Coleman is finishing it off

Looking forward to it

Huge incentive, but let's not get carried away.

I think we'll draw 1-1.

Avoid defeat which would put us in Pot 2 be good enough for me which also keeps us in on course for a top 2 group finish ..... but if can you imagine what a win would be like though ?

i think this will be the match that brings us back down to earth, i predict at least a 3 goal margin, people are getting carried away.

but its good that we are moving up the seedings

I'm just praying we stay injury free from now till the game... Especially bale and Ramsey. If we do, then I think we will be more than a match for them, and with 30thousand pissed up maniac taffs behind our players, we could even nick a win

This is the big thing with Wales - staying injury free.
Teams like England can afford to lose a few players & not be weakened but it's crucial we go into this game with everybody fit.