Any tips ?
Fri Apr 10, 2015 6:44 pm
I know it's a carnage charge but I've been given night in Milan For tomorrow's grand national any body with a good tip please share 
Re: Any tips ?
Fri Apr 10, 2015 7:18 pm
Just for you my Welsh friend ?
This week’s Juicy Plum target….
It’s short but sweet from me this week. We’re having a busy time of it at Aintree over on the Winning Race Profile service…. But, don’t worry, I’ve got some big-price Juicy Plums for you to go to war with this weekend. There’s only one race on our mind….
This weekend our target race is the Grand National. This is a Grade 3 event for horses aged 7yo+. It is contested over 4 mile 4 furlongs and 100 yards(not to mention 30 of the most famous fences in the world) at Aintree tomorrow afternoon at 4.15. You can watch the race live on C4 and RUK.
40 runners go to post – now let’s see if I can get this race cracked for the third year in succession. But before I come to my selections, I’ve got some pointers for you to work with if you’re in the mood to find your own bets….
The Grand National – field-splitters and angles of attack….
Key statistical pointers that split the field and provide a route into the race….
All of the last 12 winners had raced over fences at least 10 times (10 had contested no more than 24 chases)
All had won at least 3 chases
All were officially rated 137+ (4 of the last 7 winners were rated 148+)
10 had won a chase worth £30k+
11 were aged 9- to 11-years-old
10 had already raced over fences at 28f+ (9 producing a Racing Post rating within 8lb of career-best over fences)
9 had run over hurdles at least once during the current season
11 had finished in top 5 of last chase contested
10 had scored a best RPR over fences of 150+ (8 had produced their best ever rating in one of their last 2 chase starts)
6 of the last 7 winners had contested Grade level chase that season
11 had won no more than 3 handicaps during chasing career
This week’s Juicy Plum selections….
There’s no denying that ROCKY CREEK has an outstanding chance of winning tomorrow’s Grand National off a weight of just 11-03. He was 5th in last year’s renewal carrying 11-05. It should be remembered that he was only 8-years-old and would probably have benefitted from a more patient ride. This year’s he’s a year older, a year stronger and this has been his primary target all year. When the weights were released he was only rated 154. Since then he’s risen to a mark of 163 – but the way the weights work in the National he gets to run effectively off the old rating. In a normal handicap he’d be giving weight all round. As it is he is significantly advantaged at the weights and with a good round of jumping he has to go close. At 10s he represents a straight win bet for me.
David Pipe has done a cracking job with SOLL. He’s only had the horse since last summer and with a few adjustments – most notably the addition of a tongue-strap and blinkers – he has rejuvenated the horse. Two runs have produced two wins and he’s in right at the bottom-end of the weights. Originally weighted off a mark of 139 he has since risen to a rating of 146 and is clearly well in on that basis. He’s negotiated the National fences successfully twice before –in the 2013 National when he was 7th and again in last year’s Topham. With Pipe having restored the horse’s form since taking over handling duties from Jo Hughes, this gentle giant can be right in the mix. At 20s he represents an each-way bet for me.
We don’t like to go to war in the National without a real big-price runner going to post for us and one that might be overlooked at big odds is Warren Greatrex’s DOLATULO. He’s been specifically trained for this race and was given a sight of the fences in the Grand Sefton in December – over an inadequate trip – and took to them according to connections. He then won the Rowland Meyrick in impressive style – a win over 3 miles that qualified him for the National – before being given a bit of a break. He arrives at Aintree a relatively fresh horse with a couple of spins over hurdles during February and March serving to sharpen him up for the task. He has a good cruising speed and if he stays then he can go well. At prices as big as 66s he represents an each-way bet for me.
This being the Grand National I will be playing these selections each-way
This week’s Juicy Plum target….
It’s short but sweet from me this week. We’re having a busy time of it at Aintree over on the Winning Race Profile service…. But, don’t worry, I’ve got some big-price Juicy Plums for you to go to war with this weekend. There’s only one race on our mind….
This weekend our target race is the Grand National. This is a Grade 3 event for horses aged 7yo+. It is contested over 4 mile 4 furlongs and 100 yards(not to mention 30 of the most famous fences in the world) at Aintree tomorrow afternoon at 4.15. You can watch the race live on C4 and RUK.
40 runners go to post – now let’s see if I can get this race cracked for the third year in succession. But before I come to my selections, I’ve got some pointers for you to work with if you’re in the mood to find your own bets….
The Grand National – field-splitters and angles of attack….
Key statistical pointers that split the field and provide a route into the race….
All of the last 12 winners had raced over fences at least 10 times (10 had contested no more than 24 chases)
All had won at least 3 chases
All were officially rated 137+ (4 of the last 7 winners were rated 148+)
10 had won a chase worth £30k+
11 were aged 9- to 11-years-old
10 had already raced over fences at 28f+ (9 producing a Racing Post rating within 8lb of career-best over fences)
9 had run over hurdles at least once during the current season
11 had finished in top 5 of last chase contested
10 had scored a best RPR over fences of 150+ (8 had produced their best ever rating in one of their last 2 chase starts)
6 of the last 7 winners had contested Grade level chase that season
11 had won no more than 3 handicaps during chasing career
This week’s Juicy Plum selections….
There’s no denying that ROCKY CREEK has an outstanding chance of winning tomorrow’s Grand National off a weight of just 11-03. He was 5th in last year’s renewal carrying 11-05. It should be remembered that he was only 8-years-old and would probably have benefitted from a more patient ride. This year’s he’s a year older, a year stronger and this has been his primary target all year. When the weights were released he was only rated 154. Since then he’s risen to a mark of 163 – but the way the weights work in the National he gets to run effectively off the old rating. In a normal handicap he’d be giving weight all round. As it is he is significantly advantaged at the weights and with a good round of jumping he has to go close. At 10s he represents a straight win bet for me.
David Pipe has done a cracking job with SOLL. He’s only had the horse since last summer and with a few adjustments – most notably the addition of a tongue-strap and blinkers – he has rejuvenated the horse. Two runs have produced two wins and he’s in right at the bottom-end of the weights. Originally weighted off a mark of 139 he has since risen to a rating of 146 and is clearly well in on that basis. He’s negotiated the National fences successfully twice before –in the 2013 National when he was 7th and again in last year’s Topham. With Pipe having restored the horse’s form since taking over handling duties from Jo Hughes, this gentle giant can be right in the mix. At 20s he represents an each-way bet for me.
We don’t like to go to war in the National without a real big-price runner going to post for us and one that might be overlooked at big odds is Warren Greatrex’s DOLATULO. He’s been specifically trained for this race and was given a sight of the fences in the Grand Sefton in December – over an inadequate trip – and took to them according to connections. He then won the Rowland Meyrick in impressive style – a win over 3 miles that qualified him for the National – before being given a bit of a break. He arrives at Aintree a relatively fresh horse with a couple of spins over hurdles during February and March serving to sharpen him up for the task. He has a good cruising speed and if he stays then he can go well. At prices as big as 66s he represents an each-way bet for me.
This being the Grand National I will be playing these selections each-way
Re: Any tips ?
Fri Apr 10, 2015 7:28 pm
Balthazar King for me. 
Re: Any tips ?
Fri Apr 10, 2015 7:35 pm
Baltazhar king is my main bet
Interesting that he skipped his beloved cheltenham for this race this year and ran in both last year finishing just short in the national
He's an excellent jumper and a game stayer but the national also required a lot of luck in running easy to fall or get brought down by a faller
Also on Alvarado
10/1 & 25/1 I belive the prices
Not really a race you can be confident of tipping in as so many other factors involved but your best bet is to look at the ground and a hhorse that will stay the distance in those conditions
Good luck folks
Interesting that he skipped his beloved cheltenham for this race this year and ran in both last year finishing just short in the national
He's an excellent jumper and a game stayer but the national also required a lot of luck in running easy to fall or get brought down by a faller
Also on Alvarado
10/1 & 25/1 I belive the prices
Not really a race you can be confident of tipping in as so many other factors involved but your best bet is to look at the ground and a hhorse that will stay the distance in those conditions
Good luck folks
Re: Any tips ?
Fri Apr 10, 2015 8:03 pm
I will do what I always do and did at Cheltenham! Pick the name I like best that's within reasonable chance but not fav and go for it, my method works a lot better than my mates who study everything for hours! 
Re: Any tips ?
Fri Apr 10, 2015 8:48 pm
DUSTY CARPET for me,never been beat! On a serious note though ROCKY CREEK'