Are possession stats meaningless ?

Or more significantly are they meaningless in the Championship? Of the 4 games played in the Championship tonight all were won by teams with the least possession in their game! It lead me to assume that possession stats must be the most misleading and meaningless set of figures that are used in football these days. However, I then looked at the Premiership results and contrary to the Championship results, out of the 7 games played, 6 were won by the team with most possession, only one team in that league lost whilst having the most possession and that was Everton, who it could be argued have what is known as a tippy tappy manager in Martinez. A clear indication I guess of the difference in the standard of football between the two divisions.

Of course possession stats aren't meaningless; as long as you use them as they are intended, as an indication of how much a team has had the ball compared to their opponents.

Whether high possession percentages have any correlation with winning games in the championship (I assume they do), you're going to need a much bigger sample size before drawing conclusions.

Goals win games, possession does not, as simple as that.

2 wins for away teams in the championship this week, us and Wigan, we had 40%, Wigan only had 30%... People still complain when we win but have lower possession, don't get it

Goals win games, possession does not, as simple as that.

2 wins for away teams in the championship this week, us and Wigan, we had 40%, Wigan only had 30%... People still complain when we win but have lower possession, don't get it

Spot on! The only stats that count are the goals each way.

However, the possession can cut down the chances your opponent has to score. The main reason these stats are misread is that they take no account of speed of passes or whether the possession is in an attacking position or not. It is easy to pass the ball across the back four and keeper if you are losing, because the other team is in no hurry to score.

The beauty of football compared to other sports is that there is always a chance of a comeback if you are within 2 goals even with 10 minutes left.

Goals win games, although we may only have say 35% of the ball over the ninety minutes. The trouble is sometimes that leads to a hammering if the better possession side finishes there chances or creates loads then you living on luck.

Reason premier would be different is quality of strikers / midfielders! Good stat was Barcelona couple weeks ago had 75% possession and lost to mid table team!!

I would suggest having less possession of the ball in games is more taxing in a long season. City will be expected to out work every team they play against which is an exceptionally hard thing to do.

Most of us have watched enough football to know that possession of the ball is not the determining factor in every game. Nor does the "best" side - however you define that - necessarily win a particular game. Luck, injuries ,refereeing decisions can all play a major part in a match. But there is little doubt that over time teams that have the majority of possession in games tend to win more than those who don't. In the current Championship the top six are averaging 54.8% possession the bottom 6 are averaging 49.9%. There was a similar disparity last year (53% against against 48%)(n the Premier League the possession gap between the top clubs and the bottom is considerably bigger).

That 5% gap in the Championship doesn't seem very big but it means that in an average game this season a top six team will have had the ball for about 50 minutes compared to their opponents 40 minutes. That is 10 minutes, or 25%, longer than their opponents had it. That is 25% more time in which to score goals than their opponents had. The table suggests that over time that means they gather more points than their opponents. It doesn't mean that a team with lower possession rates can't succeed but it is unusual. (Burnley did it last year with 49% possession)

Cardiff City's possession percentage this season so far is a pitiful 43.2%. Only Blackpool (43.1%) are marginally worse. Given that we also have the 4th worst pass completion rate at about 67% we are actually doing very well to be as high as we are in the table. Most years those stats would get us relegated.

Arsenal won 2-0 away from home a fortnight ago with only 35% possession. Too often it's praised for the sake of it and countless matches in the Premiership are won by the team with far less possession. Sometimes teams retain the ball and do very little with it. It's like the denigration of the long ball, yet players like Gerrard (and Whitts at his best) can turn a game around with a single distance pass.

Arsenal won 2-0 away from home a fortnight ago with only 35% possession. Too often it's praised for the sake of it and countless matches in the Premiership are won by the team with far less possession. Sometimes teams retain the ball and do very little with it. It's like the denigration of the long ball, yet players like Gerrard (and Whitts at his best) can turn a game around with a single distance pass.

Yes that's right. And we won at 1-0 Watford with 29% possession this season. But we won't win many like that and neither will Arsenal ( who are averaging 55% possession in the Premier League this year). At Watford we were somewhat fortunate that none of their 22 shots found the net. My point is that over a season teams who dominate possession tend to do better than those that don't.

I really feel a lot of people dont understand statistics. Yes the only thing that matter is the goals scored and a win. But if you like to look behind the results, look at aspects of the game that might be inproving or needs adressing statistics is very useful.
Also just looking at one single stat is almost meaningless. Its like looking at only one colour in a picture, and not the other five.
Stats is a very good way to get a fuller picture of the way we play football. Combine that with live game, video of movement, passing, marking and so on. With statistics you get a much more complete picture of the game. A natural question to our possession rate is looking at the pass rate. Is the reason a low pass rate? why is there a low pass rate? how long is the pass rate?
If its a long pass rate, how many duels do we win? And so on. IMO our possession rate is low simply by plying a direct game with a lot of balls down the chanels. In that sense the possession stats are meaningless because we deliberate play that way.
Its our game plan. Also, since media coveredge is close to non existent in the championship at the moment its a good read for football fans. But in no way does it paint a true picture of the game.

The score is the most important obviously.

I think the concern on possession has come from fans concerned at our form, if your losing possession every week (not just every now and then), struggling to score and struggling to win then fans will look at it.

I really feel a lot of people dont understand statistics. Yes the only thing that matter is the goals scored and a win. But if you like to look behind the results, look at aspects of the game that might be inproving or needs adressing statistics is very useful.
Also just looking at one single stat is almost meaningless. Its like looking at only one colour in a picture, and not the other five.
Stats is a very good way to get a fuller picture of the way we play football. Combine that with live game, video of movement, passing, marking and so on. With statistics you get a much more complete picture of the game. A natural question to our possession rate is looking at the pass rate. Is the reason a low pass rate? why is there a low pass rate? how long is the pass rate?
If its a long pass rate, how many duels do we win? And so on. IMO our possession rate is low simply by plying a direct game with a lot of balls down the chanels. In that sense the possession stats are meaningless because we deliberate play that way.
Its our game plan. Also, since media coveredge is close to non existent in the championship at the moment its a good read for football fans. But in no way does it paint a true picture of the game.

I agree with you that our possession rate is low because of the way we choose to play but I do not agree with you that is meaningless. If the point of the game is to score goals then we have to play in a way that produces shots on goal. Only four teams in the Division have a lower shots per game figure than us. Those at the top of the table have a higher shots per game figures to go with their higher possession figures. That is what I would expect - in general terms more possession = more shots = more goals.
Our possession figure tells me that we are choosing to play an ineffective brand of football with which we cannot hope for real success.. And to make it worse it is excruciating to watch.

Most of us have watched enough football to know that possession of the ball is not the determining factor in every game. Nor does the "best" side - however you define that - necessarily win a particular game. Luck, injuries ,refereeing decisions can all play a major part in a match. But there is little doubt that over time teams that have the majority of possession in games tend to win more than those who don't. In the current Championship the top six are averaging 54.8% possession the bottom 6 are averaging 49.9%. There was a similar disparity last year (53% against against 48%)(n the Premier League the possession gap between the top clubs and the bottom is considerably bigger).

That 5% gap in the Championship doesn't seem very big but it means that in an average game this season a top six team will have had the ball for about 50 minutes compared to their opponents 40 minutes. That is 10 minutes, or 25%, longer than their opponents had it. That is 25% more time in which to score goals than their opponents had. The table suggests that over time that means they gather more points than their opponents. It doesn't mean that a team with lower possession rates can't succeed but it is unusual. (Burnley did it last year with 49% possession)

Cardiff City's possession percentage this season so far is a pitiful 43.2%. Only Blackpool (43.1%) are marginally worse. Given that we also have the 4th worst pass completion rate at about 67% we are actually doing very well to be as high as we are in the table. Most years those stats would get us relegated.

why? Our goal difference is as good as half the teams in league ! So we are obviously doing well when it comes to where it matters, obviously having poor possession or pass completion isn't effecting our standing in league its results that are doing that!

Most of us have watched enough football to know that possession of the ball is not the determining factor in every game. Nor does the "best" side - however you define that - necessarily win a particular game. Luck, injuries ,refereeing decisions can all play a major part in a match. But there is little doubt that over time teams that have the majority of possession in games tend to win more than those who don't. In the current Championship the top six are averaging 54.8% possession the bottom 6 are averaging 49.9%. There was a similar disparity last year (53% against against 48%)(n the Premier League the possession gap between the top clubs and the bottom is considerably bigger).

That 5% gap in the Championship doesn't seem very big but it means that in an average game this season a top six team will have had the ball for about 50 minutes compared to their opponents 40 minutes. That is 10 minutes, or 25%, longer than their opponents had it. That is 25% more time in which to score goals than their opponents had. The table suggests that over time that means they gather more points than their opponents. It doesn't mean that a team with lower possession rates can't succeed but it is unusual. (Burnley did it last year with 49% possession)

Cardiff City's possession percentage this season so far is a pitiful 43.2%. Only Blackpool (43.1%) are marginally worse. Given that we also have the 4th worst pass completion rate at about 67% we are actually doing very well to be as high as we are in the table. Most years those stats would get us relegated.

why? Our goal difference is as good as half the teams in league ! So we are obviously doing well when it comes to where it matters, obviously having poor possession or pass completion isn't effecting our standing in league its results that are doing that!

Goal difference in itself can be a misleading stat. You could have an amazing defence but not score many either. On the other hand, if you score loads but let in a fair few, you could end up with the same GD.

Timing and distribution are key factors too. If games are tight but you score or concede at the end, this c San have huge consequences. I've you beat someone 4-1 then lose 1-0, you gain 2. Again, raw data is misleading.

Most of us have watched enough football to know that possession of the ball is not the determining factor in every game. Nor does the "best" side - however you define that - necessarily win a particular game. Luck, injuries ,refereeing decisions can all play a major part in a match. But there is little doubt that over time teams that have the majority of possession in games tend to win more than those who don't. In the current Championship the top six are averaging 54.8% possession the bottom 6 are averaging 49.9%. There was a similar disparity last year (53% against against 48%)(n the Premier League the possession gap between the top clubs and the bottom is considerably bigger).

That 5% gap in the Championship doesn't seem very big but it means that in an average game this season a top six team will have had the ball for about 50 minutes compared to their opponents 40 minutes. That is 10 minutes, or 25%, longer than their opponents had it. That is 25% more time in which to score goals than their opponents had. The table suggests that over time that means they gather more points than their opponents. It doesn't mean that a team with lower possession rates can't succeed but it is unusual. (Burnley did it last year with 49% possession)

Cardiff City's possession percentage this season so far is a pitiful 43.2%. Only Blackpool (43.1%) are marginally worse. Given that we also have the 4th worst pass completion rate at about 67% we are actually doing very well to be as high as we are in the table. Most years those stats would get us relegated.

why? Our goal difference is as good as half the teams in league ! So we are obviously doing well when it comes to where it matters, obviously having poor possession or pass completion isn't effecting our standing in league its results that are doing that!

Goal difference in itself can be a misleading stat. You could have an amazing defence but not score many either. On the other hand, if you score loads but let in a fair few, you could end up with the same GD.

Timing and distribution are key factors too. If games are tight but you score or concede at the end, this c San have huge consequences. I've you beat someone 4-1 then lose 1-0, you gain 2. Again, raw data is misleading.

Thats the point you can twist stats anyway you want them to suit your argument! At end day its results that matter no point in having 99%possession if keep losing!

Most of us have watched enough football to know that possession of the ball is not the determining factor in every game. Nor does the "best" side - however you define that - necessarily win a particular game. Luck, injuries ,refereeing decisions can all play a major part in a match. But there is little doubt that over time teams that have the majority of possession in games tend to win more than those who don't. In the current Championship the top six are averaging 54.8% possession the bottom 6 are averaging 49.9%. There was a similar disparity last year (53% against against 48%)(n the Premier League the possession gap between the top clubs and the bottom is considerably bigger).

That 5% gap in the Championship doesn't seem very big but it means that in an average game this season a top six team will have had the ball for about 50 minutes compared to their opponents 40 minutes. That is 10 minutes, or 25%, longer than their opponents had it. That is 25% more time in which to score goals than their opponents had. The table suggests that over time that means they gather more points than their opponents. It doesn't mean that a team with lower possession rates can't succeed but it is unusual. (Burnley did it last year with 49% possession)

Cardiff City's possession percentage this season so far is a pitiful 43.2%. Only Blackpool (43.1%) are marginally worse. Given that we also have the 4th worst pass completion rate at about 67% we are actually doing very well to be as high as we are in the table. Most years those stats would get us relegated.

why? Our goal difference is as good as half the teams in league ! So we are obviously doing well when it comes to where it matters, obviously having poor possession or pass completion isn't effecting our standing in league its results that are doing that!

You could ask why our results have not been what a lot of you were expecting at the start of the season. Could our disappointing results be down to the fact that we don't have as much possession as our opponents, and most of our completed passes tend to be sideways or backwards in our own half before the inevitable big boot high into the opponents half, usually ending up with the opposition regaining possession.

Celtic beat Barcelona with 11% possession.
So I don't think they really matter, whoever scores more goals wins.
Not who has more shots or more of the ball

Most of us have watched enough football to know that possession of the ball is not the determining factor in every game. Nor does the "best" side - however you define that - necessarily win a particular game. Luck, injuries ,refereeing decisions can all play a major part in a match. But there is little doubt that over time teams that have the majority of possession in games tend to win more than those who don't. In the current Championship the top six are averaging 54.8% possession the bottom 6 are averaging 49.9%. There was a similar disparity last year (53% against against 48%)(n the Premier League the possession gap between the top clubs and the bottom is considerably bigger).

That 5% gap in the Championship doesn't seem very big but it means that in an average game this season a top six team will have had the ball for about 50 minutes compared to their opponents 40 minutes. That is 10 minutes, or 25%, longer than their opponents had it. That is 25% more time in which to score goals than their opponents had. The table suggests that over time that means they gather more points than their opponents. It doesn't mean that a team with lower possession rates can't succeed but it is unusual. (Burnley did it last year with 49% possession)

Cardiff City's possession percentage this season so far is a pitiful 43.2%. Only Blackpool (43.1%) are marginally worse. Given that we also have the 4th worst pass completion rate at about 67% we are actually doing very well to be as high as we are in the table. Most years those stats would get us relegated.

why? Our goal difference is as good as half the teams in league ! So we are obviously doing well when it comes to where it matters, obviously having poor possession or pass completion isn't effecting our standing in league its results that are doing that!

You could ask why our results have not been what a lot of you were expecting at the start of the season. Could our disappointing results be down to the fact that we don't have as much possession as our opponents, and most of our completed passes tend to be sideways or backwards in our own half before the inevitable big boot high into the opponents half, usually ending up with the opposition regaining possession.

More to do with shots at goal and chances created with what possession we have? After all we sit about halfway in goal difference stats, and as Blackpool only team worse possession than us there is a lot of clubs not doing a lot with possession they have?

Most of us have watched enough football to know that possession of the ball is not the determining factor in every game. Nor does the "best" side - however you define that - necessarily win a particular game. Luck, injuries ,refereeing decisions can all play a major part in a match. But there is little doubt that over time teams that have the majority of possession in games tend to win more than those who don't. In the current Championship the top six are averaging 54.8% possession the bottom 6 are averaging 49.9%. There was a similar disparity last year (53% against against 48%)(n the Premier League the possession gap between the top clubs and the bottom is considerably bigger).

That 5% gap in the Championship doesn't seem very big but it means that in an average game this season a top six team will have had the ball for about 50 minutes compared to their opponents 40 minutes. That is 10 minutes, or 25%, longer than their opponents had it. That is 25% more time in which to score goals than their opponents had. The table suggests that over time that means they gather more points than their opponents. It doesn't mean that a team with lower possession rates can't succeed but it is unusual. (Burnley did it last year with 49% possession)

Cardiff City's possession percentage this season so far is a pitiful 43.2%. Only Blackpool (43.1%) are marginally worse. Given that we also have the 4th worst pass completion rate at about 67% we are actually doing very well to be as high as we are in the table. Most years those stats would get us relegated.

why? Our goal difference is as good as half the teams in league ! So we are obviously doing well when it comes to where it matters, obviously having poor possession or pass completion isn't effecting our standing in league its results that are doing that!

Goal difference in itself can be a misleading stat. You could have an amazing defence but not score many either. On the other hand, if you score loads but let in a fair few, you could end up with the same GD.

Timing and distribution are key factors too. If games are tight but you score or concede at the end, this c San have huge consequences. I've you beat someone 4-1 then lose 1-0, you gain 2. Again, raw data is misleading.

Thats the point you can twist stats anyway you want them to suit your argument! At end day its results that matter no point in having 99%possession if keep losing!

Exactly! (I wasn't disagreeing with your post, just adding weight to your argument).

As the old saying goes:

There are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.

Most of us have watched enough football to know that possession of the ball is not the determining factor in every game. Nor does the "best" side - however you define that - necessarily win a particular game. Luck, injuries ,refereeing decisions can all play a major part in a match. But there is little doubt that over time teams that have the majority of possession in games tend to win more than those who don't. In the current Championship the top six are averaging 54.8% possession the bottom 6 are averaging 49.9%. There was a similar disparity last year (53% against against 48%)(n the Premier League the possession gap between the top clubs and the bottom is considerably bigger).

That 5% gap in the Championship doesn't seem very big but it means that in an average game this season a top six team will have had the ball for about 50 minutes compared to their opponents 40 minutes. That is 10 minutes, or 25%, longer than their opponents had it. That is 25% more time in which to score goals than their opponents had. The table suggests that over time that means they gather more points than their opponents. It doesn't mean that a team with lower possession rates can't succeed but it is unusual. (Burnley did it last year with 49% possession)

Cardiff City's possession percentage this season so far is a pitiful 43.2%. Only Blackpool (43.1%) are marginally worse. Given that we also have the 4th worst pass completion rate at about 67% we are actually doing very well to be as high as we are in the table. Most years those stats would get us relegated.

why? Our goal difference is as good as half the teams in league ! So we are obviously doing well when it comes to where it matters, obviously having poor possession or pass completion isn't effecting our standing in league its results that are doing that!

Goal difference in itself can be a misleading stat. You could have an amazing defence but not score many either. On the other hand, if you score loads but let in a fair few, you could end up with the same GD.

Timing and distribution are key factors too. If games are tight but you score or concede at the end, this c San have huge consequences. I've you beat someone 4-1 then lose 1-0, you gain 2. Again, raw data is misleading.

Thats the point you can twist stats anyway you want them to suit your argument! At end day its results that matter no point in having 99%possession if keep losing!

Exactly! (I wasn't disagreeing with your post, just adding weight to your argument).

As the old saying goes:

There are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.

Someone not disagreeing with me? but you are right statistics are used a lot on here to distort things !
Lots of poiticians i think!