' Cardiff City Need a Miracle '

The stats that show Cardiff City need a miracle to get promoted... but they do happen!

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Wed Jan 14, 2015
By Alex Bywater

Even Reading, who were crowned champions in 2011-12 after a remarkable run of 17 wins from 23 matches, were fifth halfway through January


Cardiff City manager Russell SladeCan Russell Slade lead Cardiff City to promotion? It's a long shot at best...

So with Cardiff City back in blue and Bluebirds fans now united, attentions are now fully focused on matters on the pitch.

Russell Slade’s side started a new era back in their traditional shirts with a 1-0 home win over Fulham last Saturday, a result which saw them move up to 11th in the Championship, seven points below the play-off spots.

Now, the question is do Slade’s men have what it takes to return to the Premier League after last season’s relegation from the top-flight?

On the face of it, a shocking run of form over Christmas and a current spot in mid-table indicates automatic promotion is highly unlikely.

And unsurprisingly, the statistics back that up. In the last 10 Championship seasons, every team which has gone on to win the league has been in the top six at the current stage. The only anomaly to that is Sunderland, who finished at the summit in the 2006-07 season, but on January 13 2007, were in ninth place after 28 games.

Even Reading, who were crowned champions in 2011-12 after a remarkable run of 17 wins from 23 matches, were fifth halfway through January after being second bottom following a shocking start earlier in the campaign.

Over the course of the last decade, it takes an average points total of 93 to secure the Championship trophy and with Cardiff currently on 34 from 25 games, it would take a further 59 points to reach that magic mark. That’s an average of 2.8 points a game, essentially winning every match until the end of the season.

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Since Slade took over on a permanent basis, his Cardiff side have taken 21 points from 14 league games at an average of 1.5 a time. Not enough to reach top spot in any shape or form and after all, a change of kit colour doesn’t mask the fact the Bluebirds have been poor on the pitch of late.

Is second place out of the question?
What about the chances of second place then? Well, it’s a similar story there.

Norwich, Southampton and Hull, who all finished as Championship runners-up from 2010-11 onwards, were all firmly entrenched within the top six in mid-January of those respective seasons.

Sheffield United in 2006, Stoke City in 2008 and West Brom in 2010 are also cut from the same cloth as they both finished second after being in the same position in the early days of the new year.

So with automatic promotion probably out of the equation, according to the numbers at least, what about a tilt at the play-offs? Well, if you look back at the last 10 years, the team finishing in sixth place ends the season with an average of 73 points. To reach that mark and a shot at the lottery of the play-offs, Slade’s men need a further 39 points and must take nearly two points a game to get there. Unlikely, perhaps. But not insurmountable given the renewed momentum at the club and the fact Cardiff are only seven points off sixth in an increasingly congested top half.



Given Cardiff’s inconsistency, frailty away from home and over-reliance on set-pieces, the cynics will say it’s a long shot

They may well be right, but the Bluebirds can at least take inspiration from other sides who have shot up the table in the second half of a campaign.

I honestly think we should put promotion talk behind us. Being a realist we are no where near.

If we did get up we,d need 11 players , we're not the team of a couple of years ago.

We've got our identity back this season , that will be our biggest achievement.

Still keep believing though

I honestly think we should put promotion talk behind us. Being a realist we are no where near.

If we did get up we,d need 11 players , we're not the team of a couple of years ago.

We've got our identity back this season , that will be our biggest achievement.

Still keep believing though

Totally agreed. At the moment we are a mid table team, at best.

7 points off the playoffs.

I agree we should discount automatic promotion... But 7 points isn't all that much to make up. Not easy (especially with the way we've been playing) but doable.

League position vs chance of promotions changes every year, it all depends on the points spread and this year is still pretty darn close

Not saying it's definitely going to happen, but we could do it.

I'm not sure if I wouldn't prefer to stay in the Championship though, with the team we currently have we wouldn't last a month out of the dropzone in the prem

For me we have already 'won' this season in achieving becoming Blue again.
I think most fans are realisic to see that we do not play like a promotion winning team. Having said that lets have a go and see where it takes us and maybe even a fun cup run!
I do believe however, that unless we find a true leader to drive from the centre of midfield we will struggle which is a shame as there is enough quality in the squad to do well but we suffere from that missing piece.
Now we are blue I am just going to enjoy the ride whatever happens. Thats what supporting the bluebirds has always been like!

Lets be realistic, it was fantastic to get our blue kit back but anything better than mid table is a bonus.

Based on the current manager, tactics and squad we are at best a mid table team. I think Slade is not the man for the club with his poor tactics, 4-4-2, selections, no plan B and transfer activity.

At the start of the season we did have a decent squad but slowly the quality is being ripped out and cheaper options are taking their place. We now have an average team in comparison to many of other Championship teams.

At the start of the season I was looking forward to City challenging for promotion, now I would be happy to stay in the Division. I think that as a club (bar the return of blue) we have gone backwards and unless things change we will continue to do so.

Miracles do happen, we've had ours for 2015 getting back to blue!

The stats of the bookies are a stark reminder that we are way off the pace, however at least we can enjoy a united fan base the players are going to be more settled the only miracle for me would be to win the play off

If that were to happen VTs cheque book will have to come out

I'm not bothered, just glad to watch them play again after over two years away. I'd prefer to see them play in blue in this division rather than not see them at all if they returned to Premier in red. Think we will do well to finish above half way.

There's no reason we can't make the playoffs

There's no reason we can't make the playoffs

I agree .

Its only 7 points adrift of the playoffs and were dismissing this, there's loads of points to play for who to say we can't go on a good run this 2nd half of the season! Other teams will start to drift off and if we win more games this 2nd half of the season playoffs is definetly an aim and very get able too! Come on boys this is a great start of the year in getting our blue back so let's get behind the boys till the end, even if we don't go into the playoffs next year we'll have a good crack next season!

Its only 7 points adrift of the playoffs and were dismissing this, there's loads of points to play for who to say we can't go on a good run this 2nd half of the season! Other teams will start to drift off and if we win more games this 2nd half of the season playoffs is definetly an aim and very get able too! Come on boys this is a great start of the year in getting our blue back so let's get behind the boys till the end, even if we don't go into the playoffs next year we'll have a good crack next season!

this^

I think we should stay up with a bit of luck but I think we will struggle for a number of seasons hovering near the relegation zone. Deja Vu or what ? Let's hope for a good cup run. If memory serves we normally beat Reading on the way to Wembley.

7 points is nothing in this league if you could go on a nice run of wins and we could well nick a lower play off spot if we do. However I just can't see that run happening. We have been diabolical for a while now and we are where we deserve to be....some good players in Jan to put an injection of urgency into the team need to be bought to stand a chance. At that doesn't look like happening either. Around 8-10th for me I'm afraid.

Anything is possible.

Cant see it though, not with Slade in charge

Cant see it with the quality of football we are playing,mid table at best
Before Reading went on their promotion winning run,they were playing well but not getting results

Imo We havent got a snowballs chance in hell of auto places and the play offs are a distant dream. We had a squad that could go on a run and make the play offs when Russel Slade took over. BUT many of the better players have been removed.
I really hope RS proves me totally wrong but I have no faith in him as a manager and I think we'll do well just to stay out of a relegation scrap.
We had a far better team when we were in the Premier league 12 months back and we still went down. God knows how much investment would be needed to make this lot into a Premier league outfit!

I've just gone through our fixture list for the next 2 months, and in all honesty I firmly believe we can make the play offs providing other teams results going our way.

Jan 17 Norwich Away - 1 point
Jan 24 Middlesbourgh Away - 0 points
Jan 31 Derby Home - 1 point

Feb 7 Sheff Wed Away - 3 points
Feb 10 Brighton Home - 3 points
Feb 14 Blackburn Home - 3 points
Feb 21 Huddersfield Away - 3 points
Feb 24 Wigan Away - 3 points
Feb 28 Wolves Home - 3 Points

There's absolutely no reason we can't go on a run in Feb because of the teams we're playing. Agree?

I've just gone through our fixture list for the next 2 months, and in all honesty I firmly believe we can make the play offs providing other teams results going our way.

Jan 17 Norwich Away - 1 point
Jan 24 Middlesbourgh Away - 0 points
Jan 31 Derby Home - 1 point

Feb 7 Sheff Wed Away - 3 points
Feb 10 Brighton Home - 3 points
Feb 14 Blackburn Home - 3 points
Feb 21 Huddersfield Away - 3 points
Feb 24 Wigan Away - 3 points
Feb 28 Wolves Home - 3 Points

There's absolutely no reason we can't go on a run in Feb because of the teams we're playing. Agree?

I'd love to agree, but with Feb's hectic schedule I don't know if our fitness worries may come back to bite us.

I don't think the playoffs need a miracle. We're 7 points behind, it can be done.

I HOPE so. It's my birthday in Feb so I'll get a ticket to one of the games... just hope as you do that they are all winners!

There's no reason we can't make the playoffs

how about the lack of a goalscorer and a leaky defence?

I've just gone through our fixture list for the next 2 months, and in all honesty I firmly believe we can make the play offs providing other teams results going our way.

Jan 17 Norwich Away - 1 point
Jan 24 Middlesbourgh Away - 0 points
Jan 31 Derby Home - 1 point

Feb 7 Sheff Wed Away - 3 points
Feb 10 Brighton Home - 3 points
Feb 14 Blackburn Home - 3 points
Feb 21 Huddersfield Away - 3 points
Feb 24 Wigan Away - 3 points
Feb 28 Wolves Home - 3 Points

There's absolutely no reason we can't go on a run in Feb because of the teams we're playing. Agree?

Hope you are right because think we'll do well to get 9 points from these games. I estimate somewhere between 7 and 9 points based on recent performances.

Its only 7 points adrift of the playoffs and were dismissing this, there's loads of points to play for who to say we can't go on a good run this 2nd half of the season! Other teams will start to drift off and if we win more games this 2nd half of the season playoffs is definetly an aim and very get able too! Come on boys this is a great start of the year in getting our blue back so let's get behind the boys till the end, even if we don't go into the playoffs next year we'll have a good crack next season!

this^

Ha ha I realised that afterwards!

Its only 7 points adrift of the playoffs and were dismissing this, there's loads of points to play for who to say we can't go on a good run this 2nd half of the season! Other teams will start to drift off and if we win more games this 2nd half of the season playoffs is definetly an aim and very get able too! Come on boys this is a great start of the year in getting our blue back so let's get behind the boys till the end, even if we don't go into the playoffs next year we'll have a good crack next season!

this^

Ha ha I realised that afterwards!

There's no reason we can't make the playoffs

how about the lack of a goalscorer and a leaky defence?

Well the individuals we have are not terrible by any means. Given more time with all the fans behind them then we're bound to get something out of the next few months. The only way is up from now!

7 points not the greatest total to claw back but consistency is going to be the key and im not 100% sure we consistent enough at the moment. Think outside of play offs 7th - 9th could make an exciting April / may tho with a bit of luck

25 points from 13 home games, 9 points from 12 away games. Away form will be the deciding factor, we have to have an incredible turn around in our away form. Hopefully the lucky red works it's magic.

Its not fact we are only 7pnts off play offs? Its the amount of teams that have to have slump in form for us to get 6th place that's the problem.!

not a chance in hell with mr slade !!!

I've just gone through our fixture list for the next 2 months, and in all honesty I firmly believe we can make the play offs providing other teams results going our way.

Jan 17 Norwich Away - 1 point
Jan 24 Middlesbourgh Away - 0 points
Jan 31 Derby Home - 1 point

Feb 7 Sheff Wed Away - 3 points
Feb 10 Brighton Home - 3 points
Feb 14 Blackburn Home - 3 points
Feb 21 Huddersfield Away - 3 points
Feb 24 Wigan Away - 3 points
Feb 28 Wolves Home - 3 Points

There's absolutely no reason we can't go on a run in Feb because of the teams we're playing. Agree?

This is obviously a wind up. We gave been playing the worst football for at least 5/6 years and although everyone us entitled to their opinion we are miles off the play offs. Pew will be lucky to take 5/6 points from the February games.

There's no reason we can't make the playoffs

how about the lack of a goalscorer and a leaky defence?

Well the individuals we have are not terrible by any means. Given more time with all the fans behind them then we're bound to get something out of the next few months. The only way is up from now!

agree and i hope you are correct my friend