malky points vrs full season 38 games

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/en ... 2013-12-29

When Malky left Played 19 points 18 games

Points 0.94 per game

Vrs 38 games

35.72 points.

Avoids relegation.

To be fair, you have had a mare here

No way to determine what results Malky would have gotten further onto the season it's all ifs and buts

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/2013-2014/table/2013-12-29

When Malky left Played 19 points 18 games

Points 0.94 per game

Vrs 38 games

35.72 points.

Avoids relegation.

Does'nt work like that, Man City Played 19 - Points 42. On that basis they would have ended up with 84 points and finished runners up.

Congratulations Arsenal for winning the Premier League.

Even if we got 36 points we were relegated

To be fair, you have had a mare here

Monk is better. That says it all. Somebody with no managerial experience is better than both our managers.

To be fair, you have had a mare here

Can't stop laughing Craig.

18 games is a perfectly valid sample size to determine an average points value in a single season in a given league.

I work as an actuary

18 games is a perfectly valid sample size to determine an average points value in a single season in a given league.

I work as an actuary

Do you want a bigger spade?

18 games is a perfectly valid sample size to determine an average points value in a single season in a given league.

I work as an actuary

Do you want a bigger spade?

OK mystic meg, give your math based on unknowns

18 games is a perfectly valid sample size to determine an average points value in a single season in a given league.

I work as an actuary

Life and soul of the party are you.

In fact I tend to agree with you. We had some juicy home games coming up after Milky got sacked and I'm pretty sure under him we would have taken points of west ham, hull and Palace.

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/2013-2014/table/2013-12-29

When Malky left Played 19 points 18 games

Points 0.94 per game

Vrs 38 games

35.72 points.

Avoids relegation.

how does 35 points keep us up.
you work?
for?

Last edited by simon.wiesenthal on Sun May 11, 2014 6:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

No way to determine what results Malky would have gotten further onto the season it's all ifs and buts

The point is, its not. Apart from teams that had statistical anomalies due to biased fixture lists, most end point tallies are pretty much in line with 50% of the season.

Ok, lets assume you are correct. We achieve 35.92 points under Malky....hell, lets round it up to 36...............we get relegated anyway

Taaa raaaaa mate

Ok, lets assume you are correct. We achieve 35.92 points under Malky....hell, lets round it up to 36...............we get relegated anyway

Taaa raaaaa mate

Not when you build in statistical deviation you clot.

Ok, lets assume you are correct. We achieve 35.92 points under Malky....hell, lets round it up to 36...............we get relegated anyway

Taaa raaaaa mate

Not when you build in statistical deviation you clot.

So guesses then lol

the club just outside the relegation zone are on 36..with a much better goal diff...........

Ok, lets assume you are correct. We achieve 35.92 points under Malky....hell, lets round it up to 36...............we get relegated anyway

Taaa raaaaa mate

Not when you build in statistical deviation you clot.

So guesses then lol

No, and now you are showing yourself as an arse.

The deviation between past performance under the old manager, and the known performance of the new manager.

My lord, are you this dumb?

To be fair, you have had a mare here

Can't stop laughing Craig.

dont laugh.....people are probably paying good money for this fellas work with absolutely no idea..

18 games is a perfectly valid sample size to determine an average points value in a single season in a given league.

I work as an actuary

Life and soul of the party are you.

In fact I tend to agree with you. We had some juicy home games coming up after Milky got sacked and I'm pretty sure under him we would have taken points of west ham, hull and Palace.

he was going to fund some january transfers?
hope he never sets foot in gods country again......

Sunderland had 14 points from 19 games so they should be completely knackered now along with West Ham who were last but one at the mid way point.

the club just outside the relegation zone are on 36..with a much better goal diff...........

Factor in the deviation between the first 18 games, and the remaining games under a manager with no experience.

Its almost like you are saying "I just dont understand" and then being belligerent.

Sunderland had 14 points from 19 games so they should be completely knackered now along with West Ham who were last but one at the mid way point.

Yeah, but nobody ever said your future position was totally reliant on the past (when it comes to a single team), its just that when it comes to the vast majority of teams its a great indicator.

Sunderland had 14 points from 19 games so they should be completely knackered now along with West Ham who were last but one at the mid way point.

Yeah, but nobody ever said your future position was totally reliant on the past (when it comes to a single team), its just that when it comes to the vast majority of teams its a great indicator.

But doesn't this blow your argument out of the water. You stated "avoids relegation". You may be right, but equally under Malky we could have ended up with fewer points than we actually had. There is no way of knowing for certain, and if you took an average from the half way point, nearly every team would have ended up in a different league position to the one that they are in today.

Basically, when you factor in the standard deviation of a known known, with a known unknown , its probable that mathematically malky would have kept Cardiff in the Premier league.

Basically, when you factor in the standard deviation of a known known, with a known unknown , its probable that mathematically malky would have kept Cardiff in the Premier league.

this is absolute shit mate...........its football...there are no knowns

Sunderland had 14 points from 19 games so they should be completely knackered now along with West Ham who were last but one at the mid way point.

Yeah, but nobody ever said your future position was totally reliant on the past (when it comes to a single team), its just that when it comes to the vast majority of teams its a great indicator.

But doesn't this blow your argument out of the water. You stated "avoids relegation". You may be right, but equally under Malky we could have ended up with fewer points than we actually had. There is no way of knowing for certain, and if you took an average from the half way point, nearly every team would have ended up in a different league position to the one that they are in today.

It comes back to sample size of 18 games and .94 points per game, if you apply a perfectly normal ratio of .5% in a standard deviation malky could have stayed up.

when you look at Sunderland, you cannot apply the same figures as they changed manager etc and all the variables changed and it worked for them. It didnt work for Cardiff, but thats not my point, with malky, the odds of staying in the prem was mathematically greater (in hind site)

Basically, when you factor in the standard deviation of a known known, with a known unknown , its probable that mathematically malky would have kept Cardiff in the Premier league.

this is absolute shit mate...........its football...there are no knowns

Right, so generally the same 5 or 6 teams do not finish in the top 6 of the prem? Thats right, no knowns