' Premier League '

Has sacking the manager saved your club from Premier League relegation this year?
by Martin Belam and David Dubas-Fisher SPORT

Sunday 23rd February 2014.

The numbers suggest it has made all the difference for Sunderland and Crystal Palace. Cardiff, on the other hand…

Yesterday we looked at how many points clubs need to avoid relegation, and predicted that West Brom, Cardiff and Fulham will drop.

We wanted to see whether sacking your manager – or having them quit – has actually saved anyone from relegation this year. And the answer, we think, is yes.

So far 6 Premier League clubs have sacked their manager, and Crystal Palace accepted Ian Holloway’s resignation.

We looked at the points each club were averaging per game with their original manager, and what they could have expected to finish the season on if that had carried on. Then we looked at what they’ve averaged since the change, and where that would place them.

Under this formula we think Sunderland and Crystal Palace have saved themselves by changing manager. Conversely we think Cardiff City have put themselves down by ditching Malky Mackay.


Ave Pts-per-game under original manager
Ave Pts-per-game after manager left
Change
Cardiff City 0.94 0.62 -0.32
Crystal Palace 0.37 1.35 0.98
Fulham 0.77 0.77 0
Swansea City 1.04 1.5 0.46
Sunderland 0.2 1.15 0.95
Tottenham Hotspur 1.68 2.3 0.62
West Brom 0.94 0.9 -0.04

Sunderland and Crystal Palace have both improved their points-per-game average by nearly a whole point since ditching Di Canio and Holloway.

Fulham have changed managers twice now, but their average points-per-game has remained constant throughout the season. And has always been so low as to put them in the relegation frame.

Likewise, West Brom’s management change has made no significant difference to their average points-per-game.

Cardiff City, though, have seen their average dip from around a point-per-game down to 0.62 per game. If that rate continues under Ole Gunnar Solskjær, we won’t be getting any Welsh derbies in the Premier League next year.

Tottenham are a slightly different case. They sacked Andre Villas-Boas, but haven’t been involved in the relegation battle. Under AVB they were averaging 1.68 points per game. That’s now increased to 2.3 since he left White Hart Lane.

Cut the bullshit but Tan has f**k up big time.

premier league we're having a laugh.