F/A/O StataTak

Any chance of starting your stats for Sat game until the end of this season.

I thought that they were very interesting last season.

Agree - excellent posts they were.

Here's a new type of stat table that I have found. (Hope it is big enough to read).

It gives our percentage chance of finishing in certain positions based on the permutations of W-D-L for our last 15 games. A little explanation first. The count on the right hand side is how many times the predicted results came about when ALL results were simulated based on historical results. As you can see the simulation was run millions of times.

I know, I don't quite understand it either.

First things first we are already at a 67.6% chance of being relegated.

Secondly there are three counts over a million, these are attached to our most likely final points ....... 31, 33 or 34 pts. (relegation fodder I'm afraid)

Finally what we all want to know. The percentage chance of surviving doesn't go in our favour until we gain 35pts. There is a 34% chance of this points total allowing us a 17th place finish. There is a 32% chance this points total will leave us in 18th place and relegated.

The points total for survival looks lower this year as it is so tight in the bottom half.

For the time being an easy to remember 4-5-6 ....... 4 wins, 5 draws, 6 loses may be enough. Doesn't look that difficult, does it?

Obviously the standard 40pts would be better but 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 loses does look a tad difficult.

image.jpg

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Here's a new type of stat table that I have found. (Hope it is big enough to read).

It gives our percentage chance of finishing in certain positions based on the permutations of W-D-L for our last 15 games. A little explanation first. The count on the right hand side is how many times the predicted results came about when ALL results were simulated based on historical results. As you can see the simulation was run millions of times.

I know, I don't quite understand it either.

First things first we are already at a 67.6% chance of being relegated.

Secondly there are three counts over a million, these are attached to our most likely final points ....... 31, 33 or 34 pts. (relegation fodder I'm afraid)

Finally what we all want to know. The percentage chance of surviving doesn't go in our favour until we gain 35pts. There is a 34% chance of this points total allowing us a 17th place finish. There is a 32% chance this points total will leave us in 18th place and relegated.

The points total for survival looks lower this year as it is so tight in the bottom half.

For the time being an easy to remember 4-5-6 ....... 4 wins, 5 draws, 6 loses may be enough. Doesn't look that difficult, does it?

Obviously the standard 40pts would be better but 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 loses does look a tad difficult.

image.jpg

Good post.

However the competitive nature of the bottom end this year will surely see the pass mark higher, not lower. There are no real whipping boys.

The pass mark is already 1 point up on this time last year.

Good post.

However the competitive nature of the bottom end this year will surely see the pass mark higher, not lower. There are no real whipping boys.

The pass mark is already 1 point up on this time last year.

Yeah, dead right. With everyone taking points off each other at the bottom the point distribution should be higher.

Personally I'm hoping the fact that many of the teams at the bottom have to play MORE of the teams at the top, than us (think someone posted that on here somewhere) this will reduce the survival points for us.