40 point myth !

The points required in each of the last ten years to finish in 17th position in the Premiership and obviously to stay up was :

2013 - 37
2012 - 37
2011 - 40
2010 - 31
2009 - 35
2008 - 37
2007 - 39
2006 - 35
2005 - 34
2004 - 34

This is an average of 35.9 points.

Can we get to 36 points and give ourselves a fighting chance ?

That's 22 more points required, so can we get 7 wins and a draw ?

Doubt it can't see us winning another 7, 5 at most with another 5 or 6 draws.

IMO 36 pts will see us relegated

You could well be correct, but I guess my point is that only one year in the last ten years has 40 points been required to stay up.

It looks like 37 / 38 is more likely to be the total required.

The points required in each of the last ten years to finish in 17th position in the Premiership and obviously to stay up was :

2013 - 37
2012 - 37
2011 - 40
2010 - 31
2009 - 35
2008 - 37
2007 - 39
2006 - 35
2005 - 34
2004 - 34

This is an average of 35.9 points.

Can we get to 36 points and give ourselves a fighting chance ?

That's 22 more points required, so can we get 7 wins and a draw ?

but.................11 years ago West Ham went down with 42.........its different each season,last year Qpr and Reading looked doomed already, this year the bottom clubs have started getting points..

This season will be higher than normal because the competition is huge for the last 2 spots (sunderland have bottom place imo). Usually teams get cut adrift of the rest of the pack and become the whipping boys. Fulham and West Ham certainly are no whipping boys.

40 would be the minimum target for me this year.

Ok let's look at the games..

How about these 10 home fixtures still to come this season ?

West Brom (H)
Southampton (H)
Sunderland (H)
West Ham (H)
Norwich (H)
Aston Villa (H)
Hull (H)
Fulham (H)
Crystal Palace (H)
Stoke (H)

Conservatively, I believe we will win at least 5 of those games (15 points), draw at least 2 (2 points) and maybe lose 3 games, which would take us to 31 points for the season, still leaving us short.

So that means we would need at least 5 points from our remaining away games to get to 36 or 7 points to get to 38 points and hopefully survival.

So how about these 4 targeted away fixtures ?

Swansea (A)
West Brom (A)
Southampton (A)
Sunderland (A)

Again, conservatively, I believe we can get 2 draws (2 points) from these four away games taking us to 33 points.

All hypothetical of course, but it would mean that we would have to then pick up those 'missing' 5 points from the remaining games against the 'big' teams to reach 38 points....

These are the 9 other games against the so-called 'big' teams (I've included Newcastle) that we have remaining :

Liverpool (A)
Arsenal (A)
Man City (A)
Man Utd (A)
Tottenham (A)
Everton (A)
Liverpool (H)
Newcastle (A)
Chelsea (H)

.....so can we get 5 points from these games and stay up on maybe 38 points ?

Get 40 and you are probably safe. Get less and its in the lap of the Gods.

Very true...

Although I know we've got Chelsea at home last game, I'm still hoping that Norwich's last four fixtures of the season can save us too !

They've got :

Liverpool (H)
Man Utd (A)
Chelsea (A)
Arsenal (H)

I said in a post yesterday that I thought it would be less than 40 points this season, but if our form remains as it is now then we will struggle to get 35 points. Every other team in the league is fighting for something and we have to get our performance levels more like Man City, Jacks and Man Utd every game rather than Stoke or Palace - its all about motivation, over to you Malky...

Tomorrow will tell us a hell of a lot.
City play at home at last a team not in top regions of the league.(swansea game is in a different category)
There is no point City being cagy, that will play right into WBA's hands who have real attacking quality.
Got to go for the win & play positive from the off.

maybe if WE attack

Ugh, if we need a win from the last game of the season to stay up and chelsea need it for the title, I may cry myself to sleep

Ugh, if we need a win from the last game of the season to stay up and chelsea need it for the title, I may cry myself to sleep

I know what your saying, but it would just be so typical of us to leave it that late and then go and win it...