' How much pressure is Mackay under? '
Thu Jul 25, 2013 11:41 pm
The average tenure of the current line up of Premier League managers – again leaving out Arsene Wenger – is now roughly 14 months.
Hi folks,
Curious to know what you think the general expectations on Malky Mackay are this season? He seems to have had an impressive rise, but given two of the three promoted managers got the sack last season, are there circumstances where you think he will come under similar pressure? Or will the board back him come what may?
This new article has a look at why the pressure is so high for Premier League managers is so intense.
Ben
The average tenure of the current line up of Premier League managers – again leaving out Arsene Wenger – is now roughly 14 months.
The pressure on new Premier League bosses
JULY 24, 2013 BY BEN HARRISON
In a little under a month, eight managers in the Barclays Premier League will begin their first full season in new roles.
New Manchester City boss Manuel Pellegrini
Creative Commons (Wikipedia)
Some have managed in the division before: Jose Mourinho has twice won the Premier League title and is returning to familiar ground to try and repeat the feat; Mark Hughes has a reputation to rebuild at Stoke; Ian Holloway and Roberto Martinez have both suffered relegation in recent years; and David Moyes has the hardest act to follow, having left Everton to fill Sir Alex Ferguson’s shoes at Old Trafford.
Of the remaining three, Manuel Pellegrini has the most managerial experience, but is newest to the English game, while fellow Argentine Mauricio Pochettino has half a season at Southampton under his belt, and Italian Paolo Di Canio performed a late rescue mission at Sunderland last season.
Each of these managers is facing distinct circumstances and challenges – some to win silverware, others just to stay in the division.
But what unites them is that they will each be under incredible pressure to meet these expectations from the first whistle of the season. Fail to respond to this pressure, and at least some risk being out of work by Christmas.
Here today, gone tomorrow
That’s because expectations on football managers in the Premier League have now reached unprecedented levels of intensity.
This is reflected in the high turnover rates of Premier League bosses. Across each of the last five years, at least 20% of managers that started the season have left their club before its conclusion. In 2008/09 a staggering nine managerial changes took place during the season.
This trend means that aside from Arsene Wenger – who having led Arsenal for nearly 17 years is very much the last remaining exception in this regard – Newcastle’s Alan Pardew is the longest serving boss in the Premier League, despite having only been in charge for just over two and a half years.
Sam Allardyce, Martin Jol and Malky Mackay have also each been in their jobs for just over two years, while, aside from the eight managers referred to above, the remainder have chalked up a little over 12 months each in post.
Current Premier League manager tenures
The average tenure of the current line up of Premier League managers – again leaving out Arsene Wenger – is now roughly 14 months.
This trend is not unique to the Premier League, as this comparison shows. But what are the key factors driving the high turnover of bosses in the Premier League?
First, the costs of competing at the top level of English football, and the financial rewards associated with success, have never been greater. The transfer fees, wages and television revenue associated with the Premier League continue to rise, making running a football club in the top flight of English football a high stakes business.
Although prize money is awarded for each additional Premier League place gained (c. £1m per place), the real financial incentive lies in qualifying for the Champions League.
Each of the 32 teams that qualify for the Champions’ League group stages is guaranteed to earn over €8m in prize monies alone, even if it loses every single game (each win is worth an additional €1m).
Once television revenue and round-by-round prize money is included, clubs stand to make anywhere between €25m and €60m from participating in the Champions League.
So for clubs like Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool who have consistently invested in their playing squads, not competing in the Champions League is not just a challenge to their status as “top clubs”, but also tantamount to a financial disaster
But when there are only four slots available, every season at least one major competitor will be disappointed, and more often than not, the manager will pay the price.
Second, the expectations of owners and fans tend to be coloured by historical successes. England is home to a large number of clubs who have proud traditions of success at home and in continental competitions, often supported by significant fanbases.
It is easy for the owners and fans of these clubs to be captured by such traditions and to disregard more recent and relevant history as a guide to what a realistic measure of success should be for their team.
And it’s entirely understandably that long suffering fans of a club like Newcastle United continue to yearn for a return to the swashbuckling Kevin Keegan teams of the mid-90s, or the never-say-die attitude of Sir Bobby Robson’s Champions’ League campaigns in the early 00’s.
But since Sir Bobby left Newcastle at the beginning of 2004/05, only twice have the club finished higher than 12th in the Premier League, during which time they have hired and fired eight managers, and also experienced relegation to the Championship.
It is now simply not reasonable to continue to judge the current guardians of the club against the standards of these two relatively short periods of success now a decade or more in the past.
The current board’s reluctance to dispense with Alan Pardew after a disappointing 2012/13 season reflects a realisation that patience is required and expectations should be measured.
But this is far from being the case at every ground in the Premier League where managers continue to be measured against their distant predecessors, before inevitably coming up short.
Third, many managers end up being victims of their own success. Just as some fans and owners have difficulty forgetting the past, many struggle to remember recent progress that may have been made by their club.
This particularly applies to those clubs who gain promotion to the Premier League. You can count on one hand the number of days between a manager collecting the Play Off Trophy at Wembley, and them topping the bookies latest odds in the Premier League Sack Race.
Most promoted clubs can’t possibly invest the same amounts in their squad as established Premier League rivals. Yet, if come Christmas Steve Bruce’s, Ian Holloway’s and Malky Mackay’s sides are being cut adrift at the bottom of the league, the pressure will be on the owner to make a change in order to maintain their Premier League status.
There is something peculiar in the notion that it is a managers’ success that can often lead to their downfall – it shows how quickly the game moves on and expectations are re-assessed.
After all, had Brian McDermott or Nigel Adkins failed to gain promotion to the Premier League in 2011/12, they may still be in their jobs now.
Conclusions
Football management is a highly pressured and precarious profession. With manager turnover as it is currently, it’s entirely possible to be ‘Manager of the Month’ in January, but back in the job centre by the end of February.
Yet it is far from clear that sacking a manager significantly benefits the club in question. Every situation is different, but for many, such as Reading in 2012/13, it yields no significant improvement in performances.
For others, such as Southampton, it provides a short term boost which then fades (it’s interesting to note that Nigel Adkins and Mauricio Pochettino’s records last season are nigh on identical, despite the Argentine beginning his reign so impressively).
On the other hand, Chelsea has gone through seven managers since 2004 and can boast Premier League Championships and a Champions League title for their efforts.
Ultimately a new managerial appointment in itself is unlikely to be sufficient to drastically change the long term performance levels of a club. Increasingly managers are just one part of a complex infrastructure that includes Directors of Football, Directors of Recruitment, Sports Scientists and Analysts.
So, while managers remain the main public face of a club, carrying responsibility for its wellbeing, their ability to do a good job is contingent on many others who, for now, are unlikely to be held accountable in the same way.
For the foreseeable future then, the manager will remain the most vulnerable position at a club when their fortunes start to fall.
And as for the coming season, one would likely get very long odds indeed on all eight newcomers still being in post come the start of next season.
Hi folks,
Curious to know what you think the general expectations on Malky Mackay are this season? He seems to have had an impressive rise, but given two of the three promoted managers got the sack last season, are there circumstances where you think he will come under similar pressure? Or will the board back him come what may?
This new article has a look at why the pressure is so high for Premier League managers is so intense.
Ben
The average tenure of the current line up of Premier League managers – again leaving out Arsene Wenger – is now roughly 14 months.
The pressure on new Premier League bosses
JULY 24, 2013 BY BEN HARRISON
In a little under a month, eight managers in the Barclays Premier League will begin their first full season in new roles.
New Manchester City boss Manuel Pellegrini
Creative Commons (Wikipedia)
Some have managed in the division before: Jose Mourinho has twice won the Premier League title and is returning to familiar ground to try and repeat the feat; Mark Hughes has a reputation to rebuild at Stoke; Ian Holloway and Roberto Martinez have both suffered relegation in recent years; and David Moyes has the hardest act to follow, having left Everton to fill Sir Alex Ferguson’s shoes at Old Trafford.
Of the remaining three, Manuel Pellegrini has the most managerial experience, but is newest to the English game, while fellow Argentine Mauricio Pochettino has half a season at Southampton under his belt, and Italian Paolo Di Canio performed a late rescue mission at Sunderland last season.
Each of these managers is facing distinct circumstances and challenges – some to win silverware, others just to stay in the division.
But what unites them is that they will each be under incredible pressure to meet these expectations from the first whistle of the season. Fail to respond to this pressure, and at least some risk being out of work by Christmas.
Here today, gone tomorrow
That’s because expectations on football managers in the Premier League have now reached unprecedented levels of intensity.
This is reflected in the high turnover rates of Premier League bosses. Across each of the last five years, at least 20% of managers that started the season have left their club before its conclusion. In 2008/09 a staggering nine managerial changes took place during the season.
This trend means that aside from Arsene Wenger – who having led Arsenal for nearly 17 years is very much the last remaining exception in this regard – Newcastle’s Alan Pardew is the longest serving boss in the Premier League, despite having only been in charge for just over two and a half years.
Sam Allardyce, Martin Jol and Malky Mackay have also each been in their jobs for just over two years, while, aside from the eight managers referred to above, the remainder have chalked up a little over 12 months each in post.
Current Premier League manager tenures
The average tenure of the current line up of Premier League managers – again leaving out Arsene Wenger – is now roughly 14 months.
This trend is not unique to the Premier League, as this comparison shows. But what are the key factors driving the high turnover of bosses in the Premier League?
First, the costs of competing at the top level of English football, and the financial rewards associated with success, have never been greater. The transfer fees, wages and television revenue associated with the Premier League continue to rise, making running a football club in the top flight of English football a high stakes business.
Although prize money is awarded for each additional Premier League place gained (c. £1m per place), the real financial incentive lies in qualifying for the Champions League.
Each of the 32 teams that qualify for the Champions’ League group stages is guaranteed to earn over €8m in prize monies alone, even if it loses every single game (each win is worth an additional €1m).
Once television revenue and round-by-round prize money is included, clubs stand to make anywhere between €25m and €60m from participating in the Champions League.
So for clubs like Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool who have consistently invested in their playing squads, not competing in the Champions League is not just a challenge to their status as “top clubs”, but also tantamount to a financial disaster
But when there are only four slots available, every season at least one major competitor will be disappointed, and more often than not, the manager will pay the price.
Second, the expectations of owners and fans tend to be coloured by historical successes. England is home to a large number of clubs who have proud traditions of success at home and in continental competitions, often supported by significant fanbases.
It is easy for the owners and fans of these clubs to be captured by such traditions and to disregard more recent and relevant history as a guide to what a realistic measure of success should be for their team.
And it’s entirely understandably that long suffering fans of a club like Newcastle United continue to yearn for a return to the swashbuckling Kevin Keegan teams of the mid-90s, or the never-say-die attitude of Sir Bobby Robson’s Champions’ League campaigns in the early 00’s.
But since Sir Bobby left Newcastle at the beginning of 2004/05, only twice have the club finished higher than 12th in the Premier League, during which time they have hired and fired eight managers, and also experienced relegation to the Championship.
It is now simply not reasonable to continue to judge the current guardians of the club against the standards of these two relatively short periods of success now a decade or more in the past.
The current board’s reluctance to dispense with Alan Pardew after a disappointing 2012/13 season reflects a realisation that patience is required and expectations should be measured.
But this is far from being the case at every ground in the Premier League where managers continue to be measured against their distant predecessors, before inevitably coming up short.
Third, many managers end up being victims of their own success. Just as some fans and owners have difficulty forgetting the past, many struggle to remember recent progress that may have been made by their club.
This particularly applies to those clubs who gain promotion to the Premier League. You can count on one hand the number of days between a manager collecting the Play Off Trophy at Wembley, and them topping the bookies latest odds in the Premier League Sack Race.
Most promoted clubs can’t possibly invest the same amounts in their squad as established Premier League rivals. Yet, if come Christmas Steve Bruce’s, Ian Holloway’s and Malky Mackay’s sides are being cut adrift at the bottom of the league, the pressure will be on the owner to make a change in order to maintain their Premier League status.
There is something peculiar in the notion that it is a managers’ success that can often lead to their downfall – it shows how quickly the game moves on and expectations are re-assessed.
After all, had Brian McDermott or Nigel Adkins failed to gain promotion to the Premier League in 2011/12, they may still be in their jobs now.
Conclusions
Football management is a highly pressured and precarious profession. With manager turnover as it is currently, it’s entirely possible to be ‘Manager of the Month’ in January, but back in the job centre by the end of February.
Yet it is far from clear that sacking a manager significantly benefits the club in question. Every situation is different, but for many, such as Reading in 2012/13, it yields no significant improvement in performances.
For others, such as Southampton, it provides a short term boost which then fades (it’s interesting to note that Nigel Adkins and Mauricio Pochettino’s records last season are nigh on identical, despite the Argentine beginning his reign so impressively).
On the other hand, Chelsea has gone through seven managers since 2004 and can boast Premier League Championships and a Champions League title for their efforts.
Ultimately a new managerial appointment in itself is unlikely to be sufficient to drastically change the long term performance levels of a club. Increasingly managers are just one part of a complex infrastructure that includes Directors of Football, Directors of Recruitment, Sports Scientists and Analysts.
So, while managers remain the main public face of a club, carrying responsibility for its wellbeing, their ability to do a good job is contingent on many others who, for now, are unlikely to be held accountable in the same way.
For the foreseeable future then, the manager will remain the most vulnerable position at a club when their fortunes start to fall.
And as for the coming season, one would likely get very long odds indeed on all eight newcomers still being in post come the start of next season.
Re: How much pressure is Mackay under?
Thu Jul 25, 2013 11:48 pm
Manuel Pellegrini has the most managerial experience, but is newest to the English game -
This guy is under the most pressure ( IMO ).
As for MM - he needs to be given time,has taken us to a place not seen before
This guy is under the most pressure ( IMO ).
As for MM - he needs to be given time,has taken us to a place not seen before
Re: How much pressure is Mackay under?
Fri Jul 26, 2013 12:57 am
I'll be very surprised if Malky comes under any pressure.
The great & the good are putting us down as one season wonders, so 17th or better and he's a hero.
The great & the good are putting us down as one season wonders, so 17th or better and he's a hero.
Re: ' How much pressure is Mackay under? '
Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:40 am
No matter how this coming season pans out, I hope Malky gets at least the full season. 
Re: ' How much pressure is Mackay under? '
Fri Jul 26, 2013 6:38 am
Malky Mackay has the full backing of Tan. The money is there. The players we are targetting proves
we are not looking just to beat the drop. We have a top manager here. We will finish 11th this
season. The only worry we should have is if a so called bigger club comes in for him. But if the
relationship these two have continues as it is, we will go on to bigger and better things. Mackay is
bringing quality in, but keeping that feeling of togetherness in the squad. All for one and one for
all. We will be fine under the Tan - Mackay partnership
we are not looking just to beat the drop. We have a top manager here. We will finish 11th this
season. The only worry we should have is if a so called bigger club comes in for him. But if the
relationship these two have continues as it is, we will go on to bigger and better things. Mackay is
bringing quality in, but keeping that feeling of togetherness in the squad. All for one and one for
all. We will be fine under the Tan - Mackay partnership
Re: ' How much pressure is Mackay under? '
Fri Jul 26, 2013 8:53 am
As long as he gets us to 50pts as quickly as he can, then he is under no pressure at all 
Re: ' How much pressure is Mackay under? '
Fri Jul 26, 2013 9:38 am
Obviously he's under a bit of pressure once the season gets under way and hopefully tan doesn't panic if things aren't going our way because its going to be a tough season in the premier.As annis said he has to be given a full season.
Re: ' How much pressure is Mackay under? '
Fri Jul 26, 2013 10:48 am
Tan won't panic , but some of our fans will . The fans will put him and the team under pressure , if we have a bad start . But there won't be no pressure from VT , only hope Sam keeps his nose out.