Point Distribution Top to Bottom.

At this point of the season there is a much narrower distribution of points this year as opposed to previous seasons. Here are the numbers at roughly the same point in seasons gone by.

2013 - Top 75pts - Bottom 39pts - Difference 36pts
2012 - Top 75pts - Bottom 30pts - Difference 45pts (+9pts) 89 88
2011 - Top 76pts - Bottom 31pts - Difference 45pts (+9pts) 88 84
2010 - Top 80pts - Bottom 30pts - Difference 50pts (+14pts) 102 91
2009 - Top 77pts - Bottom 29pts - Difference 48pts (+12pts) 90 83
2008 - Top 68pts - Bottom 33pts - Difference 35pts (-1pt) 81 79

This would usually mean that the total points required for promotion would be less than the last four seasons. As you can see we need to go back to 2008 to find a distribution similar to this season and in that year WBA won the league with only 81pts with Stoke 2nd on only 79pts.

For a few seasons the distribution was 9pts more than now and gave the title to a club with points between 88 & 90.

What do you reckon it means for this year? We still have a game in hand so the distribution could be slightly higher so will it be between 84pts & 86pts? Get to 90pts and I think we will have stormed the league by at least 7pts.

these stats always make me seem alot more optimistic

At this point of the season there is a much narrower distribution of points this year as opposed to previous seasons. Here are the numbers at roughly the same point in seasons gone by.

2013 - Top 75pts - Bottom 39pts - Difference 36pts
2012 - Top 75pts - Bottom 30pts - Difference 45pts (+9pts) 89 88
2011 - Top 76pts - Bottom 31pts - Difference 45pts (+9pts) 88 84
2010 - Top 80pts - Bottom 30pts - Difference 50pts (+14pts) 102 91
2009 - Top 77pts - Bottom 29pts - Difference 48pts (+12pts) 90 83
2008 - Top 68pts - Bottom 33pts - Difference 35pts (-1pt) 81 79

This would usually mean that the total points required for promotion would be less than the last four seasons. As you can see we need to go back to 2008 to find a distribution similar to this season and in that year WBA won the league with only 81pts with Stoke 2nd on only 79pts.

For a few seasons the distribution was 9pts more than now and gave the title to a club with points between 88 & 90.

What do you reckon it means for this year? We still have a game in hand so the distribution could be slightly higher so will it be between 84pts & 86pts? Get to 90pts and I think we will have stormed the league by at least 7pts.

Interesting stuff but just so I'm sure I understand the figures in brackets, should 2009 be +12pts?

17pts from the last eight games would be an excellent achievement for any of the chasing three. That would mean five wins two draws and only one defeat. They have achieved 15,14 and 14 in the last eight matches. 17 points would take hull to 85, Watford to 83 and Palace to 82. There current form would take hull to 83, Watford to 80 and palace to 79.

I think 6 points may be enough but 9 points should be way more than enough.

Still 4 wins for me

these stats always make me seem alot more optimistic

That is the point. I know many say you can make stats say whatever you want but at this point in the season I am finding less and less negative stats.

Hope they continue to spread optimism because we have no reason to quote the failings of the past. We are in that strong a position.

Interesting stuff but just so I'm sure I understand the figures in brackets, should 2009 be +12pts?

You are correct. I'm not that important to be able to edit threads this late after their posting.

I EDITED IT FOR YOU in the original post
Great stats by the way, well done

Interesting stuff but just so I'm sure I understand the figures in brackets, should 2009 be +12pts?

You are correct. I'm not that important to be able to edit threads this late after their posting.

Cheers SA, just making sure I understood what the figures in brackets meant.
The spread is an interesting way of looking at it but I suppose it could still mean the teams outside of the top few are taking more points off each other and so it doesn't necessarily mean the points required for promotion are lower.

I'm sticking with my original prediction of 86 pts will get us an auto promoted .

At this point of the season there is a much narrower distribution of points this year as opposed to previous seasons. Here are the numbers at roughly the same point in seasons gone by.

2013 - Top 75pts - Bottom 39pts - Difference 36pts
2012 - Top 75pts - Bottom 30pts - Difference 45pts (+9pts) 89 88
2011 - Top 76pts - Bottom 31pts - Difference 45pts (+9pts) 88 84
2010 - Top 80pts - Bottom 30pts - Difference 50pts (+14pts) 102 91
2009 - Top 77pts - Bottom 29pts - Difference 48pts (+12pts) 90 83
2008 - Top 68pts - Bottom 33pts - Difference 35pts (-1pt) 81 79

This would usually mean that the total points required for promotion would be less than the last four seasons. As you can see we need to go back to 2008 to find a distribution similar to this season and in that year WBA won the league with only 81pts with Stoke 2nd on only 79pts.

For a few seasons the distribution was 9pts more than now and gave the title to a club with points between 88 & 90.

What do you reckon it means for this year? We still have a game in hand so the distribution could be slightly higher so will it be between 84pts & 86pts? Get to 90pts and I think we will have stormed the league by at least 7pts.

When you look at the Longevity of both those teams in the Premier League it could go some way to arguing against the point that a lower points difference means a weaker league.

17pts from the last eight games would be an excellent achievement for any of the chasing three. That would mean five wins two draws and only one defeat. They have achieved 15,14 and 14 in the last eight matches. 17 points would take hull to 85, Watford to 83 and Palace to 82. There current form would take hull to 83, Watford to 80 and palace to 79.

I think 6 points may be enough but 9 points should be way more than enough.

That sir, is on the button.

It would take an awesome run of form for all three teams to get those level of points and even then it still only means we need 9pts from 27.

IMO I think that 3 more wins and we are there, 4 more wins would give us the title

IMO I think that 3 more wins and we are there, 4 more wins would give us the title

Yes, that sounds about right

All I've done for weeks is number crunch, and when I see stats like this my eyes go blurry, keep it up though.

When you look at the Longevity of both those teams in the Premier League it could go some way to arguing against the point that a lower points difference means a weaker league.

I'm more of the the opinion that a lower points diffrence means a more competitive league.

I assume people say "it's a poor league" because so many teams beat each other. Does that mean a load of weak teams or a load of equally strong teams.

Enjoy reading your stats mate
The main thing thats is in our favour for me is that Hull,Watford and Palace arent playing well and are dropping points fairly regularly now

Every time either we win or they drop points it's a game less for them to catch us and games are running out.

Palace,Watford and Hull will only have 6 games left next Wednesday and Hull play Watford on Tuesday so they can't all get 6 points over Easter. If we can get 4 or even 6 points over Easter we maybe almost there!