FIRST the decent news. Cardiff City are still five points clear at the top of the Championship, have a game in hand on their leading rivals and matches are beginning to run out.
Next the bad, the Bluebirds are not playing well at the moment, having taken just four points out of a possible 12, and the fingernails are starting to get shorter.
If not with Malky Mackay and his players, certainly amongst the fans because they have been through too much end-of-season failure before not to be erring on the side of caution.
I guess you can view Tuesday night’s 1-1 draw at home to Derby in one of two ways. The optimists will say it was a point gained, City coming back from a goal down to maintain their cushion at the top.
The others, and I won’t call them pessimists (if only because I fit into this category) saw it very much as two points dropped.
Before kick-off, the general consensus was that five or six wins from Cardiff’s last 12 Championship games would guarantee promotion. But Derby, for me, was one of the five or six which I saw as a shoo-in victory. Well done on the Bluebirds for clawing their way back into the game, but it was still an opportunity missed.
The reason I won’t call myself and others viewing it that way ‘pessimists’ is because I believe, by hook or by crook, Cardiff City will be playing Premier League football next season.
I’ve said that in print from the start and I’m sticking with the prediction today.
However, for the first time in the entire season I’m beginning to have doubts. Very slight ones, I must emphasise, but they are suddenly there, nagging away menacingly in the back of my mind.
Why? Because in the space of a few days the gap between the Bluebirds and the chasing pack has been cut from seismic levels to a surmountable one.
It’s not just about City being five points clear of a dangerous-looking Watford in second spot, because previously there was an enormous gap to third, too.
Suddenly, Hull are only six points behind in third and Crystal Palace, menacingly, seven points adrift in fourth.
With games played Saturday, Tuesday, Saturday, that sort of advantage can disappear in a week.
Every one of those chasing three will be fancying their chances of sneaking into the top two, either next to, or at the expense of, Mackay’s Bluebirds. Just 26 days ago, it would have been next to at the very best.
After drawing at Huddersfield on February 9, the Bluebirds were 11 points clear of Leicester (2nd), Watford (3rd), Hull (4th) and 12 ahead of Palace in fifth.
The gaps were similar after they defeated Bristol City at home the following weekend. So when the points differentials start being cut back quite so dramatically, a few jitters here and there are totally understandable, given we’ve been there, seen it and worn the T-shirt when it comes to Cardiff City end-of-season collapses.
I must reiterate the positives here. City are still clear at the top, in the ascendancy, with that game in hand (albeit against a very dangerous Leicester side) and I still believe in Mackay they have the right manager to finally get them over the promotion line. But I also wonder if it is time for the manager to freshen up his starting XI and make the most of the undoubted strength-in-depth his summer spending in the transfer market has given him.
Regular readers of this column will know I’m not exactly president of the Heidar Helguson or Craig Conway fan clubs.
Yet there they were again on Tuesday night, in the team against Derby when, in my view, there were better players left on the sidelines.
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