More numbers about the last 13 games.

Just crunching some more numbers....

Been reading about how Cardiff has the roughest schedule remaining of the contenders for auto. I think the numbers show that the club does not seem to be affected by a teams standing.

In fact...

Against Promotion Rivals (teams with realistic playoff or auto hopes)
Cardiff is 11-1-3 (grabbing three points 78% of the time)

Against Non Contenders (teams with no hope)
Cardiff is 11-3-4 (grabbing the three 64% of the time)

The club actually has a slightly better record against the top half of the table

Against Automatic Contenders
Cardiff is 5-0-1 (an 80% win rate)

Against the rest of the table
Cardiff is 17-4-6 (a 62% win rate)

Once again a better percentage against the elite

The old adage "you play to the level of your competition" seems to fit here.

13 fixtures left
3 versus auto contenders (against whom Cardiff wins 80%)
8 versus promotion contenders (against whom Cardiff wins 78%)
5 versus non contenders (against whom Cardiff wins 64%)

Based on what we have seen this season having the toughest road may be to Cardiff's advantage.

However I will point this out
The club only posted a 7-2-4 against the remaining opponents. Still a great run, but not compared to the record against the other teams. If this is repeated the club would still gain auto with some room to spare at 93 points.

Just thinking today I like numbers.
(of course I am not adding in the home and away stat)

all looks good to me

So maybe I should have included how many games the club has played in blue vs red or something about how Swansea sucks?

Then it might have drawn some interest.

It also appears good to me mate, interesting statistics.

Nice i like a good stat. And that is a cracker.

Good set of statistics 13 games left 6 wins (or 5 wins and 3 draws) gives us 88 points, more than enough to get us promoted in everyone one of the last 5 seasons.

if you could do that for the other teams who are chasing the auto spot. it would be good to compare them.

very good read

Good set of statistics 13 games left 6 wins (or 5 wins and 3 draws) gives us 88 points, more than enough to get us promoted in everyone one of the last 5 seasons.

Minor point - in 2009/10 WBA came 2nd with 91pts.

I reckon 92pts will get us promoted - hopefully as champs. Could do it with less, of course, but no team with 92pts has failed to be promoted in last 20 seasons (8 times as champs) and this total has only been needed once.

To get 92pts we need 22 from 13 games = avg. of 1.7/game. Watford & Hull need 30 from 12 = avg. of 2.5 -

if you could do that for the other teams who are chasing the auto spot. it would be good to compare them.

very good read

Okay I will for Hull first

Hull
Against Playoff Contenders 11-2-6 (gaining three points 61%)

Against Non-Contenders Hull is 8-3-4 (gaining three points 53%) they are dropping a lot of points to the bottom ten table teams.

This would lead me to believe that perhaps Hull like Cardiff is better against tougher competition, however unlike Cardiff...

Against Automatic Promotion Contenders Hull is 1-2-2 (gaining three points at 20%)

Their remaining schedule for Hull consist of
3 games versus automatic rivals (three points 20%)
6 games versus promotion rivals (three points 61%)
6 games versus non contenders (gaining three points 53%)

Of the teams remaining on Hull's Schedule in their previous match ups Hull is 8-1-3

If they repeat similar results they would end up with 87 points at seasons end.

For Watford

Versus Promotion Rivals: 9-3-8 (three points 45%)
Versus Non-Contenders: 10-2-3 (three points 66%)
and
Versus Automatic Contenders: 2-1-2 (three points 40%)

The major problem with this stat (although Watford is obviously on the whole better versus week competition) most of their losses came early in the season.

The remaining schedule for Watford:
Versus automatic rival 3 games (40% wins)
Versus promotion rivals 7 games (45% wins)
Versus non contenders 5 games (66% wins)

Against those teams Watford was 6-3-3
If that repeated they would end up with 83 points.

Of the teams in contention Watford has more playoff contenders left on it's schedule.

Maybe a Mod can combine these last few posts?

Anyways,

Palace:

Versus Playoff Contenders: 10-6-4 (three points 50%)
Versus Non Contenders: 7-4-3 (three points 50%)
and
Versus Automatic Contenders 2-2-2 (three points 33%)

So Crystal Palace has left

2 games vs automatic contenders (33% three points)
6 against promotion contenders (50% three points)
6 against non contenders (50% three points)

Their record against the teams they have left to play this season is 6-5-1
Holding to this pattern they would finish at 81 points

Odd thing is that they have so many games left against the non contenders, but based on this season they play about same no matter who the opponent.

Good set of statistics 13 games left 6 wins (or 5 wins and 3 draws) gives us 88 points, more than enough to get us promoted in everyone one of the last 5 seasons.

Minor point - in 2009/10 WBA came 2nd with 91pts.

I reckon 92pts will get us promoted - hopefully as champs. Could do it with less, of course, but no team with 92pts has failed to be promoted in last 20 seasons (8 times as champs) and this total has only been needed once.

To get 92pts we need 22 from 13 games = avg. of 1.7/game. Watford & Hull need 30 from 12 = avg. of 2.5 -

Nottingham Forest came 3rd with 79 points

WBA only needed 80 points

Leicester

Against Promotion Rivals: 9-3-6 (50% three points)
Against Non Contenders: 6-4-4 (43% three points)
and
Against Automatic Promotion Rivals 1-1-3 (20% three points)

In their remaining games they play:
8 games against promotion rivals (50% three)
5 games against non contenders (43% three)
and 3 games against automatic contenders (20% three pts.)

Their record against tems left to play is 6-3-4
If they remain true to that pattern they would end the season with 78 pts.

Final obsevations from all of this:

Obviously anything can happen, but based on this it looks like Cardiff and Watford.

Anyone notice how many automatic contenders Charlton has beaten? They are truly a team that gets ready for the big games.

Good set of statistics 13 games left 6 wins (or 5 wins and 3 draws) gives us 88 points, more than enough to get us promoted in everyone one of the last 5 seasons.

Minor point - in 2009/10 WBA came 2nd with 91pts.

I reckon 92pts will get us promoted - hopefully as champs. Could do it with less, of course, but no team with 92pts has failed to be promoted in last 20 seasons (8 times as champs) and this total has only been needed once.

To get 92pts we need 22 from 13 games = avg. of 1.7/game. Watford & Hull need 30 from 12 = avg. of 2.5 -

Nottingham Forest came 3rd with 79 points

WBA only needed 80 points

OK - I can sort of see your point - but we came 4th on 76pts and if we had got 88pts we wouldn't have got promoted automatically - we'd have come 3rd behind Newcastle(102) and WBA(91).
Think we're looking at things from slightly different angles.

Anyway if we do get 88pts I hope/think it will get us autos (hopefully as champs) - Watford & Hull both need to avg >2pts per game to get that many - can't see them both doing it although bit worried about Watford's run.