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Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 12:05 pm

CCFCJosh75 wrote:
northside of risca wrote:
CCFCJosh75 wrote:
ReesWestonSuperMare wrote:"Your maths is way out mate. Your out by a factor of 100. 0.001% of 70 million would be 700. If only. Your figure should be 0.1%"

3,000,000 people in wales , 3,000 dead. Take the three noughts off the 3,000 and the 3,000,000 that gives 3 deaths per 3,000
Divide that again and it's 1 death per 1,000 - yep your right , 0.1% per infection results in death , so for every 100 people in Wales infected 99.9% survive (so far anyway)

I know if's a different % if you break it down in age groups etc

'so for every 100 people in Wales infected 99.9% survive'. But you're using the entire population of Wales in that so you'd have to think that every person in Wales has had it.

Using data from coronavirus.cymru there's has been 120,432 cases and 3046 deaths. That gives a case mortality rate of 2.5% and then a confirmed survival rate of 97.5%.
2019 Wales population was 3, 152,900 so if everyone had corona virus and it maintained the 2.5% case mortality then 78,823 people should have die.



The death count numbers stink though, anyone who’s had an underlying illness and dies with C19 ( or detected in the blood in the previous month ) gets COVID on the certificate . Hypothetically if it entire nation got it the death rate would be a fraction of the 2.5%. Don’t ask me what the ‘right’ number is though .

Thats how death recording works though.
If you had cancer and caught pneumonia and died both would go on the death certificate along with anything else you had.
Same with dementia, heart failure, any kind of deaths.


Not disputing that , it just drives a false impression given how hard the death rate stats are peddled by the media in my opinion . Sky pretty much run with a daily death rate counter which the country could do without. Report the news by all means but i think it could be done very differently.

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 12:46 pm

northside of risca wrote:
CCFCJosh75 wrote:
northside of risca wrote:
CCFCJosh75 wrote:
ReesWestonSuperMare wrote:"Your maths is way out mate. Your out by a factor of 100. 0.001% of 70 million would be 700. If only. Your figure should be 0.1%"

3,000,000 people in wales , 3,000 dead. Take the three noughts off the 3,000 and the 3,000,000 that gives 3 deaths per 3,000
Divide that again and it's 1 death per 1,000 - yep your right , 0.1% per infection results in death , so for every 100 people in Wales infected 99.9% survive (so far anyway)

I know if's a different % if you break it down in age groups etc

'so for every 100 people in Wales infected 99.9% survive'. But you're using the entire population of Wales in that so you'd have to think that every person in Wales has had it.

Using data from coronavirus.cymru there's has been 120,432 cases and 3046 deaths. That gives a case mortality rate of 2.5% and then a confirmed survival rate of 97.5%.
2019 Wales population was 3, 152,900 so if everyone had corona virus and it maintained the 2.5% case mortality then 78,823 people should have die.



The death count numbers stink though, anyone who’s had an underlying illness and dies with C19 ( or detected in the blood in the previous month ) gets COVID on the certificate . Hypothetically if it entire nation got it the death rate would be a fraction of the 2.5%. Don’t ask me what the ‘right’ number is though .

Thats how death recording works though.
If you had cancer and caught pneumonia and died both would go on the death certificate along with anything else you had.
Same with dementia, heart failure, any kind of deaths.


Not disputing that , it just drives a false impression given how hard the death rate stats are peddled by the media in my opinion . Sky pretty much run with a daily death rate counter which the country could do without. Report the news by all means but i think it could be done very differently.



If thats how it works why are the deaths only counted as corvid not heart failure dementia ect ? Simply put if 3 things on death certificate why is covid counted as the cause of death and added to covid total? The death isn't counted on heart disease or dementia figures Is it? We all know uk as higher death rate because of the way deaths are counted. But still bad whichever way look at it.

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:34 pm

pembroke allan wrote:
northside of risca wrote:
CCFCJosh75 wrote:
northside of risca wrote:
CCFCJosh75 wrote:
ReesWestonSuperMare wrote:"Your maths is way out mate. Your out by a factor of 100. 0.001% of 70 million would be 700. If only. Your figure should be 0.1%"

3,000,000 people in wales , 3,000 dead. Take the three noughts off the 3,000 and the 3,000,000 that gives 3 deaths per 3,000
Divide that again and it's 1 death per 1,000 - yep your right , 0.1% per infection results in death , so for every 100 people in Wales infected 99.9% survive (so far anyway)

I know if's a different % if you break it down in age groups etc

'so for every 100 people in Wales infected 99.9% survive'. But you're using the entire population of Wales in that so you'd have to think that every person in Wales has had it.

Using data from coronavirus.cymru there's has been 120,432 cases and 3046 deaths. That gives a case mortality rate of 2.5% and then a confirmed survival rate of 97.5%.
2019 Wales population was 3, 152,900 so if everyone had corona virus and it maintained the 2.5% case mortality then 78,823 people should have die.



The death count numbers stink though, anyone who’s had an underlying illness and dies with C19 ( or detected in the blood in the previous month ) gets COVID on the certificate . Hypothetically if it entire nation got it the death rate would be a fraction of the 2.5%. Don’t ask me what the ‘right’ number is though .

Thats how death recording works though.
If you had cancer and caught pneumonia and died both would go on the death certificate along with anything else you had.
Same with dementia, heart failure, any kind of deaths.


Not disputing that , it just drives a false impression given how hard the death rate stats are peddled by the media in my opinion . Sky pretty much run with a daily death rate counter which the country could do without. Report the news by all means but i think it could be done very differently.



If thats how it works why are the deaths only counted as corvid not heart failure dementia ect ? Simply put if 3 things on death certificate why is covid counted as the cause of death and added to covid total? The death isn't counted on heart disease or dementia figures Is it? We all know uk as higher death rate because of the way deaths are counted. But still bad whichever way look at it.

Allan, you is from a specific medical background, so yo will know how these things work a lot more than some on here, including me

I honestly believe that we do not/will never know the true rate of Covid-19 deaths due to the physical complexities of gathering indisputable figures

I agree with you on the above. The figures are twisted but the question is are they 'best estimate' or a deliberate distortion?

I'd like to think the former; but we know Governments have deceived the public for 'the greater good' before now

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:49 pm

Sven wrote:
pembroke allan wrote:
northside of risca wrote:
CCFCJosh75 wrote:
northside of risca wrote:
CCFCJosh75 wrote:
ReesWestonSuperMare wrote:"Your maths is way out mate. Your out by a factor of 100. 0.001% of 70 million would be 700. If only. Your figure should be 0.1%"

3,000,000 people in wales , 3,000 dead. Take the three noughts off the 3,000 and the 3,000,000 that gives 3 deaths per 3,000
Divide that again and it's 1 death per 1,000 - yep your right , 0.1% per infection results in death , so for every 100 people in Wales infected 99.9% survive (so far anyway)

I know if's a different % if you break it down in age groups etc

'so for every 100 people in Wales infected 99.9% survive'. But you're using the entire population of Wales in that so you'd have to think that every person in Wales has had it.

Using data from coronavirus.cymru there's has been 120,432 cases and 3046 deaths. That gives a case mortality rate of 2.5% and then a confirmed survival rate of 97.5%.
2019 Wales population was 3, 152,900 so if everyone had corona virus and it maintained the 2.5% case mortality then 78,823 people should have die.



The death count numbers stink though, anyone who’s had an underlying illness and dies with C19 ( or detected in the blood in the previous month ) gets COVID on the certificate . Hypothetically if it entire nation got it the death rate would be a fraction of the 2.5%. Don’t ask me what the ‘right’ number is though .

Thats how death recording works though.
If you had cancer and caught pneumonia and died both would go on the death certificate along with anything else you had.
Same with dementia, heart failure, any kind of deaths.


Not disputing that , it just drives a false impression given how hard the death rate stats are peddled by the media in my opinion . Sky pretty much run with a daily death rate counter which the country could do without. Report the news by all means but i think it could be done very differently.



If thats how it works why are the deaths only counted as corvid not heart failure dementia ect ? Simply put if 3 things on death certificate why is covid counted as the cause of death and added to covid total? The death isn't counted on heart disease or dementia figures Is it? We all know uk as higher death rate because of the way deaths are counted. But still bad whichever way look at it.

Allan, you is from a specific medical background, so yo will know how these things work a lot more than some on here, including me

I honestly believe that we do not/will never know the true rate of Covid-19 deaths due to the physical complexities of gathering indisputable figures

I agree with you on the above. The figures are twisted but the question is are they 'best estimate' or a deliberate distortion?

I'd like to think the former; but we know Governments have deceived the public for 'the greater good' before now




Tbh chris while wont dispute total deaths way its done leaves it open to question and dispute! Major problems with being accurate is there was not the facilities to determine how people died at the beginning! so they took the next best thing and used averages over past 5yrs the only problem with that is who knows if flu ect had effects on numbers we already know there is more deaths from heart disease and cancer due to non treatment so can see why figures are not accurate by an stretch of imagination? I do have insight into things through personal and work situation, not sure people actually realise the mega problems there will be in getting treatments for non life threatening conditions... personally I need to see my consultant at uhw but wont get to see him unless I urgently need too even though I have open appointment to see him, joe public do not have that privilege they have to go through GP or A&E so average 5yr deaths will be different from previous 5 yrs that's for sure as people will die when normally they wouldn't.

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 2:00 pm

Some lockdown, queues inside and outside Greggs Pentwyn earlier. :banghead:

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 2:11 pm

Hopski wrote:Some lockdown, queues inside and outside Greggs Pentwyn earlier. :banghead:

Food outlets ok tho mate aren’t they?

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 2:51 pm

bluebirdoct1962 wrote:
Hopski wrote:Some lockdown, queues inside and outside Greggs Pentwyn earlier. :banghead:

Food outlets ok tho mate aren’t they?

A lot of shops still open for 'click and collect' :thumbup:

I'm off to Argos in Newpot soon after pre-ordering from the nearest available store, none of which were in Cardiff for the specific item :D

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 3:10 pm

Sven wrote:
bluebirdoct1962 wrote:
Hopski wrote:Some lockdown, queues inside and outside Greggs Pentwyn earlier. :banghead:

Food outlets ok tho mate aren’t they?

A lot of shops still open for 'click and collect' :thumbup:

I'm off to Argos in Newpot soon after pre-ordering from the nearest available store, none of which were in Cardiff for the specific item :D



Thats not essential travel unless mrs will murder you for not getting her a present? :mrgreen:

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 3:25 pm

pembroke allan wrote:
Sven wrote:
bluebirdoct1962 wrote:
Hopski wrote:Some lockdown, queues inside and outside Greggs Pentwyn earlier. :banghead:

Food outlets ok tho mate aren’t they?

A lot of shops still open for 'click and collect' :thumbup:

I'm off to Argos in Newpot soon after pre-ordering from the nearest available store, none of which were in Cardiff for the specific item :D



Thats not essential travel unless mrs will murder you for not getting her a present? :mrgreen:

Apparently, it's essential if I want to see in 2021 :lol:

But seriously, it was pre-ordered and apparently that makes it okay :shock:

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 3:32 pm

Sven wrote:
pembroke allan wrote:
Sven wrote:
bluebirdoct1962 wrote:
Hopski wrote:Some lockdown, queues inside and outside Greggs Pentwyn earlier. :banghead:

Food outlets ok tho mate aren’t they?

A lot of shops still open for 'click and collect' :thumbup:

I'm off to Argos in Newpot soon after pre-ordering from the nearest available store, none of which were in Cardiff for the specific item :D



Thats not essential travel unless mrs will murder you for not getting her a present? :mrgreen:

Apparently, it's essential if I want to see in 2021 :lol:

But seriously, it was pre-ordered and apparently that makes it okay :shock:




Lucky enough bought some things online only missing one thing but thats life
went to currys during week about faulty laptop said if not back by 23rd can get refund so its never coming back so rang and said come in and will replace it as need it for work

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 4:38 pm

Does anyone know if the lockdown restrictions in Wales from tonight will mean if Tyre Bays will be allowed to remain open?

Thanks

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 4:49 pm

blemmy wrote:Does anyone know if the lockdown restrictions in Wales from tonight will mean if Tyre Bays will be allowed to remain open?

Thanks

Yes, many will be open... :thumbup:

Check individual web-sites but I know Kwik-Fit are keeping open "as many as is possible" and there will be others

Not sure if you are a member but some great deals in Costco (fitted) with an appointment :ayatollah:

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 7:03 pm

Ultimate power trip. Drakeford.

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 7:43 pm

ealing_ayatollah wrote:
thomasblue wrote:Serious question

Everybody is abusing the government for there handling of this situation but not a single country in the world has beaten this virus no matter what they try .

What is it that the government should be doing ?
Lockdown - people won't comply
Ignore it - spirals out of control
Fire breaks - people go bankrupt

If the public do not comply with simple rules we have absolutely no chance of getting rid of this virus. Personally I think it will take a world wide lockdown with mo travelling whatsoever for probably 2 months to get rid of it

They are trying to beat it and dont want to lockdown but what choice do they have in reality


Thomas, I agree that every nation has got this badly wrong.

And while all of the below is easier with hindsight, but my two-pence worth they could have...

1) At the end of the first lockdown put their hands up and say we based our response on poor modelling and over-reacted as as did most other nations in a media-led frenzy where every leader played an international game of Chinese whispers and panicked.

2) Fired Neil Ferguson and fired whoever thought it was a good idea listening to the man who got predicted:

50K people could die of foot and mouth - less than 200 people died but 11 million livestock were slaughtered. (2001)
50K people would die from mad cow disease - 177 people died. (2002)
150M could die from bird flu - 282 people died (2005)
65K people would die of swine flu - 457 people died (2009)

Also while we're at it ask Ferguson why he used 13-year-old code, related to influenza outbreak not coronavirus outbreak for his tabloid-style modelling and why he refused to share that code for appraisal with other analysts.

Then have him exiled to Swansea for crimes against humanity/mathematics.

3) Have shifted gears from trying to keep the mass population under draconian restrictions which were never going to be obeyed and would sow massive divides within communities, and moved towards protecting the vulnerable while reopening the economy and getting on with life for everybody else.

The avoidance of grinding the economy to an essential standstill for nearly 8 months, the lack of extended furlough and subsidies and the investment in wasted white elephant nightingale hospitals would more than mitigate the cost of providing world-class health and wellbeing services to the population that would fall into a vulnerable category. (for sake of arguments say 30% as over 70s are 23% of the population of UK)

Utilised the 111 system for first-tier triage of issues, kept as many who had mild symptoms/were asymptomatic away from the NHS as possible and again re-emphasise that this virus actually has a very low mortality rate and emergency medical attention should only be sought if conditions are dramatic worsen (this is exactly the approach we took for Swine Flu and Avian flu)

4) Westminister should have issued an emergency order removing devolved powers from Wales, N.I and Scotland to keep all coronavirus approaches within one budget and within one approach.

At the same time, they should have initiated a series of monthly open review meetings, broadcast on the parliament channel and online live without any editorialising and included a broader range of scientists than are currently in place to a far more robust and productive dialogue in which bad ideas could be challenged and o do so in a transparent way that would engender the trust of the public.

Also at the same time establish a cross-party "COVID cabinet" with representatives of all nations within the union and from all three major parties in with representation in Westminister, to form a working group to ensure that the pandemic and our handling of it isn't politicised and that the interests of the nation and the public are put before any party politics.

5) Replaced the constant media bombardment of fear with daily death toll numbers with an acknowledgement that the virus is dangerous for those within a vulnerable demographic but still not as delay as anticipated in the first wave and outline a program to protect those in this bracket (point 3) but stress that for the large proportion of the population the chances of dying having contracted the virus is exceptionally low and remains outlier deaths.

This would have avoided creating the mass-hysteria we now find ourselves in with people being terrified out of their minds.

I do also wonder how much the additional stress and anxiety may have on magnifying the impact of COVID19 on someone when they get as increasing evidence suggests a link to anxiety and immunology. The media have shown them to be nothing but hypocrites trading in fear in 2020 something we likely all new ahead of this but the mask has truly slipped this year, but the government has spoon-fed them the tragedies they needed to keep the cycle going, even if the metrics they were using to validate their hyperbole had to keep shifting.

6) Have been proactive in agreeing a pragmatic and honest way to identify COVID deaths with other nations, so learnings could be made from various approaches with actual meaningful data for comparison. Also at this point being transparent with the public as to what is classed as a COVID death and why/how they arrived at this definition would be critical, again to win the trust and support of the public in what they are doing and how they are leading not only our nation but a global effort resolve the situation as quickly as possible.

7) Treated the public with respect and intelligence to make decisions for themselves.

If you are vulnerable to the virus you will be protected. If you are frightened of the virus but do not fall within the protected status, allowances should be made by employers where possible to allow you to work from home. If you place a higher value on getting on with life, then it is your risk to take.


All the above would have taken true leadership though and I don't think there is a true leader left standing amongst the UK political class anymore.


It's truly shocking. It's not fanciful to say we're living in times that resemble a totalitarian state. After 10 months people have accepted that an un-challenged Government and advisors can dictate to law-abiding citizens what they can buy, where they can go, and who they can see. Personally, I believe it's a nightmare that will go on and on and on..

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 7:48 pm

A Quiet Monkfish wrote:
ealing_ayatollah wrote:All the above would have taken true leadership though and I don't think there is a true leader left standing amongst the UK political class anymore.


It's truly shocking. It's not fanciful to say we're living in times that resemble a totalitarian state. After 10 months people have accepted that an un-challenged Government and advisors can dictate to law-abiding citizens what they can buy, where they can go, and who they can see. Personally, I believe it's a nightmare that will go on and on and on..


Bit like some of my posts :lol:

But on a serious note, you're 100% spot on. We're meekly sleepwalking into something we should be very scared about.

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:20 pm

Sven wrote:
bluebirdoct1962 wrote:
Hopski wrote:Some lockdown, queues inside and outside Greggs Pentwyn earlier. :banghead:

Food outlets ok tho mate aren’t they?

A lot of shops still open for 'click and collect' :thumbup:

I'm off to Argos in Newpot soon after pre-ordering from the nearest available store, none of which were in Cardiff for the specific item :D


You should have nipped over the bridge and on the way back bought some (no Welsh tax) booze?

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:29 pm

ealing_ayatollah wrote:
A Quiet Monkfish wrote:
ealing_ayatollah wrote:All the above would have taken true leadership though and I don't think there is a true leader left standing amongst the UK political class anymore.


It's truly shocking. It's not fanciful to say we're living in times that resemble a totalitarian state. After 10 months people have accepted that an un-challenged Government and advisors can dictate to law-abiding citizens what they can buy, where they can go, and who they can see. Personally, I believe it's a nightmare that will go on and on and on..


Bit like some of my posts :lol:

But on a serious note, you're 100% spot on. We're meekly sleepwalking into something we should be very scared about.



Trouble is cannot trust any political party or politicians not to use something as excuse to bring in things that impact on our freedom or privacy now had taste for it.

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:41 pm

ealing_ayatollah wrote:
A Quiet Monkfish wrote:
ealing_ayatollah wrote:All the above would have taken true leadership though and I don't think there is a true leader left standing amongst the UK political class anymore.


It's truly shocking. It's not fanciful to say we're living in times that resemble a totalitarian state. After 10 months people have accepted that an un-challenged Government and advisors can dictate to law-abiding citizens what they can buy, where they can go, and who they can see. Personally, I believe it's a nightmare that will go on and on and on..


Bit like some of my posts :lol:

But on a serious note, you're 100% spot on. We're meekly sleepwalking into something we should be very scared about.



nowhere near enough people seeing it.. but i got accidentally caught up in the i wonder how many people we can get to go to a retail park in one hour game they played last night... one minute im in an almost empty store with staff in groups chatting on a wind down to the end of their shift...literally 10 mins later there are queues everywhere..full car parks/ roads... at least 2 pple muttered how much they would like to give drakeford a christmas present while passing in the car park on their way to the shops.. took 15 minutes to leave the car park as all the roundabouts were blocked solid with nobody now giving way in their panic....ive read stories some store staff had to be rescued as hundreds of irate shoppers were banging windows and shouting abuse as they closed... this must have happened everywhere.....i wonder how much spread there was in that hour. ?

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:55 pm

skidemin wrote:
ealing_ayatollah wrote:
A Quiet Monkfish wrote:
ealing_ayatollah wrote:All the above would have taken true leadership though and I don't think there is a true leader left standing amongst the UK political class anymore.


It's truly shocking. It's not fanciful to say we're living in times that resemble a totalitarian state. After 10 months people have accepted that an un-challenged Government and advisors can dictate to law-abiding citizens what they can buy, where they can go, and who they can see. Personally, I believe it's a nightmare that will go on and on and on..


Bit like some of my posts :lol:

But on a serious note, you're 100% spot on. We're meekly sleepwalking into something we should be very scared about.



nowhere near enough people seeing it.. but i got accidentally caught up in the i wonder how many people we can get to go to a retail park in one hour game they played last night... one minute im in an almost empty store with staff in groups chatting on a wind down to the end of their shift...literally 10 mins later there are queues everywhere..full car parks/ roads... at least 2 pple muttered how much they would like to give drakeford a christmas present while passing in the car park on their way to the shops.. took 15 minutes to leave the car park as all the roundabouts were blocked solid with nobody now giving way in their panic....ive read stories some store staff had to be rescued as hundreds of irate shoppers were banging windows and shouting abuse as they closed... this must have happened everywhere.....i wonder how much spread there was in that hour. ?



Gives people a couple hours notice and then says dont go to shops? Wtf did he expect bet he bought last minute presents because he knew he was closing Wales down before hand! Also last week he said one in 5 testing positive well figures are 122k positive 1.8m tested !! Sounds like dodgy accounting even allowing for
the rise in cases ..... :roll:

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 8:57 pm

CCFCJosh75 wrote:
northside of risca wrote:
CCFCJosh75 wrote:
ReesWestonSuperMare wrote:"Your maths is way out mate. Your out by a factor of 100. 0.001% of 70 million would be 700. If only. Your figure should be 0.1%"

3,000,000 people in wales , 3,000 dead. Take the three noughts off the 3,000 and the 3,000,000 that gives 3 deaths per 3,000
Divide that again and it's 1 death per 1,000 - yep your right , 0.1% per infection results in death , so for every 100 people in Wales infected 99.9% survive (so far anyway)

I know if's a different % if you break it down in age groups etc

'so for every 100 people in Wales infected 99.9% survive'. But you're using the entire population of Wales in that so you'd have to think that every person in Wales has had it.

Using data from coronavirus.cymru there's has been 120,432 cases and 3046 deaths. That gives a case mortality rate of 2.5% and then a confirmed survival rate of 97.5%.
2019 Wales population was 3, 152,900 so if everyone had corona virus and it maintained the 2.5% case mortality then 78,823 people should have die.



The death count numbers stink though, anyone who’s had an underlying illness and dies with C19 ( or detected in the blood in the previous month ) gets COVID on the certificate . Hypothetically if it entire nation got it the death rate would be a fraction of the 2.5%. Don’t ask me what the ‘right’ number is though .

Thats how death recording works though.
If you had cancer and caught pneumonia and died both would go on the death certificate along with anything else you had.
Same with dementia, heart failure, any kind of deaths.


Are you sure that's correct?

We know that if I get killed in a car accident within 28 days of a positive Covid test that Covid will be put on my death certificate as a cause of death.

If I die in a car accident within 28 days of a dementia or cancer diagnosis will dementia or cancer also be included as a cause of death on my death certificate?

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:03 pm

davids wrote:
CCFCJosh75 wrote:
northside of risca wrote:
CCFCJosh75 wrote:
ReesWestonSuperMare wrote:"Your maths is way out mate. Your out by a factor of 100. 0.001% of 70 million would be 700. If only. Your figure should be 0.1%"

3,000,000 people in wales , 3,000 dead. Take the three noughts off the 3,000 and the 3,000,000 that gives 3 deaths per 3,000
Divide that again and it's 1 death per 1,000 - yep your right , 0.1% per infection results in death , so for every 100 people in Wales infected 99.9% survive (so far anyway)

I know if's a different % if you break it down in age groups etc

'so for every 100 people in Wales infected 99.9% survive'. But you're using the entire population of Wales in that so you'd have to think that every person in Wales has had it.

Using data from coronavirus.cymru there's has been 120,432 cases and 3046 deaths. That gives a case mortality rate of 2.5% and then a confirmed survival rate of 97.5%.
2019 Wales population was 3, 152,900 so if everyone had corona virus and it maintained the 2.5% case mortality then 78,823 people should have die.



The death count numbers stink though, anyone who’s had an underlying illness and dies with C19 ( or detected in the blood in the previous month ) gets COVID on the certificate . Hypothetically if it entire nation got it the death rate would be a fraction of the 2.5%. Don’t ask me what the ‘right’ number is though .

Thats how death recording works though.
If you had cancer and caught pneumonia and died both would go on the death certificate along with anything else you had.
Same with dementia, heart failure, any kind of deaths.


Are you sure that's correct?

We know that if I get killed in a car accident within 28 days of a positive Covid test that Covid will be put on my death certificate as a cause of death.

If I die in a car accident within 28 days of a dementia or cancer diagnosis will dementia or cancer also be included as a cause of death on my death certificate?



you know the answer as does Josh ... the fact that at one point the UK government dropped the total deaths by 5377 proves this....

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:06 pm

davids wrote:
CCFCJosh75 wrote:
northside of risca wrote:
CCFCJosh75 wrote:
ReesWestonSuperMare wrote:"Your maths is way out mate. Your out by a factor of 100. 0.001% of 70 million would be 700. If only. Your figure should be 0.1%"

3,000,000 people in wales , 3,000 dead. Take the three noughts off the 3,000 and the 3,000,000 that gives 3 deaths per 3,000
Divide that again and it's 1 death per 1,000 - yep your right , 0.1% per infection results in death , so for every 100 people in Wales infected 99.9% survive (so far anyway)

I know if's a different % if you break it down in age groups etc

'so for every 100 people in Wales infected 99.9% survive'. But you're using the entire population of Wales in that so you'd have to think that every person in Wales has had it.

Using data from coronavirus.cymru there's has been 120,432 cases and 3046 deaths. That gives a case mortality rate of 2.5% and then a confirmed survival rate of 97.5%.
2019 Wales population was 3, 152,900 so if everyone had corona virus and it maintained the 2.5% case mortality then 78,823 people should have die.



The death count numbers stink though, anyone who’s had an underlying illness and dies with C19 ( or detected in the blood in the previous month ) gets COVID on the certificate . Hypothetically if it entire nation got it the death rate would be a fraction of the 2.5%. Don’t ask me what the ‘right’ number is though .

Thats how death recording works though.
If you had cancer and caught pneumonia and died both would go on the death certificate along with anything else you had.
Same with dementia, heart failure, any kind of deaths.


Are you sure that's correct?

We know that if I get killed in a car accident within 28 days of a positive Covid test that Covid will be put on my death certificate as a cause of death.

If I die in a car accident within 28 days of a dementia or cancer diagnosis will dementia or cancer also be included as a cause of death on my death certificate?



Well that's how they get 80k deaths by using anyone with covid or actually with covid symptoms! They certainly do not put dementia or anything else as cause of death if had positive covid test in previous 28 days......... read enough information yo know that they use two sets of figures when counting and the national way is deaths over the 5year average ? Not sure if thats very scientific but it's not how other countries count covid deaths hence lower rates elsewhere

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:19 pm

skidemin wrote:
ealing_ayatollah wrote:
A Quiet Monkfish wrote:
ealing_ayatollah wrote:All the above would have taken true leadership though and I don't think there is a true leader left standing amongst the UK political class anymore.


It's truly shocking. It's not fanciful to say we're living in times that resemble a totalitarian state. After 10 months people have accepted that an un-challenged Government and advisors can dictate to law-abiding citizens what they can buy, where they can go, and who they can see. Personally, I believe it's a nightmare that will go on and on and on..


Bit like some of my posts :lol:

But on a serious note, you're 100% spot on. We're meekly sleepwalking into something we should be very scared about.



nowhere near enough people seeing it.. but i got accidentally caught up in the i wonder how many people we can get to go to a retail park in one hour game they played last night... one minute im in an almost empty store with staff in groups chatting on a wind down to the end of their shift...literally 10 mins later there are queues everywhere..full car parks/ roads... at least 2 pple muttered how much they would like to give drakeford a christmas present while passing in the car park on their way to the shops.. took 15 minutes to leave the car park as all the roundabouts were blocked solid with nobody now giving way in their panic....ive read stories some store staff had to be rescued as hundreds of irate shoppers were banging windows and shouting abuse as they closed... this must have happened everywhere.....i wonder how much spread there was in that hour. ?

I ended up at Maes Glas Argos in Newpot around 4pm and was second in the queue; but the security lady said it was pandemonium this morning and well after lunch with both parking problems and long queues

Great for those that can take advantage but in all seriousness how can we be in 'lockdown' (Tier 4) if we are still allowed to go shopping for items other than 'essentials' (or maybe the word has been redefined)?

Whilst it's there, people (including me today) will take advantage...

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:23 pm

Sven wrote:
skidemin wrote:
ealing_ayatollah wrote:
A Quiet Monkfish wrote:
ealing_ayatollah wrote:All the above would have taken true leadership though and I don't think there is a true leader left standing amongst the UK political class anymore.


It's truly shocking. It's not fanciful to say we're living in times that resemble a totalitarian state. After 10 months people have accepted that an un-challenged Government and advisors can dictate to law-abiding citizens what they can buy, where they can go, and who they can see. Personally, I believe it's a nightmare that will go on and on and on..


Bit like some of my posts :lol:

But on a serious note, you're 100% spot on. We're meekly sleepwalking into something we should be very scared about.



nowhere near enough people seeing it.. but i got accidentally caught up in the i wonder how many people we can get to go to a retail park in one hour game they played last night... one minute im in an almost empty store with staff in groups chatting on a wind down to the end of their shift...literally 10 mins later there are queues everywhere..full car parks/ roads... at least 2 pple muttered how much they would like to give drakeford a christmas present while passing in the car park on their way to the shops.. took 15 minutes to leave the car park as all the roundabouts were blocked solid with nobody now giving way in their panic....ive read stories some store staff had to be rescued as hundreds of irate shoppers were banging windows and shouting abuse as they closed... this must have happened everywhere.....i wonder how much spread there was in that hour. ?

I ended up at Maes Glas Argos in Newpot around 4pm and was second in the queue; but the security lady said it was pandemonium this morning and well after lunch with both parking problems and long queues

Great for those that can take advantage but in all seriousness how can we be in 'lockdown' (Tier 4) if we are still allowed to go shopping for items other than 'essentials' (or maybe the word has been redefined)?

Whilst it's there, people (including me today) will take advantage...



Click and collect is allowed as you cannot go in shops with exception of plumbing ect things in DIY stores... it is a short term thing as think most people bought enough tvs ect they need earlier.

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:46 pm

Rishi Sunak today saying that anyone who has managed to save up any cash over the past year should be spending it to 'save the economy'. This after his 'bounceback loan' scheme has come under fire with suggestions over 25 BILLION could be lost from this scheme due to defaults and fraud.

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:51 pm

No 100 post threads, no complaints from the posters on here - Let's complain about Drakeford instead who introduced EXACTLY THE SAME measures as the tories introduced in England on the same day.

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:06 pm

CityBlue93 wrote:No 100 post threads, no complaints from the posters on here - Let's complain about Drakeford instead who introduced EXACTLY THE SAME measures as the tories introduced in England on the same day.



Dont worry about it when you've been on here regularly you'll get to know the ways of the posters? :thumbup:

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:12 pm

CityBlue93 wrote:No 100 post threads, no complaints from the posters on here - Let's complain about Drakeford instead who introduced EXACTLY THE SAME measures as the tories introduced in England on the same day.



o sort of agree...but please explain how non essential items in super markets were so important last time, proper not budging... not so important this time... or will that be changed when its pointed out it doesnt make sense....

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:19 pm

skidemin wrote:
CityBlue93 wrote:No 100 post threads, no complaints from the posters on here - Let's complain about Drakeford instead who introduced EXACTLY THE SAME measures as the tories introduced in England on the same day.



o sort of agree...but please explain how non essential items in super markets were so important last time, proper not budging... not so important this time... or will that be changed when its pointed out it doesnt make sense....


I'm not saying he's perfect mate far from it, but if you're going to close a small local business which sells books, toys etc why let a big super market chain chain reap the benefits of selling the exact same items in store? If businesses are only selling essentials it will also reduce footfall.

Not sure why this wasn't thought of sooner but I don't think any gov. will claim they've acted perfectly in the first lockdown as all were pretty much making it up as they went on, if governments realised they made mistakes in the first lockdown/first few months of Covid and change the rules I don't think that's a bad thing, just learning as we go on.

Re: OT: DRAKEFORD 'LOCKS' WALES DOWN FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT!

Sun Dec 20, 2020 11:38 pm

CityBlue93 wrote:
skidemin wrote:
CityBlue93 wrote:No 100 post threads, no complaints from the posters on here - Let's complain about Drakeford instead who introduced EXACTLY THE SAME measures as the tories introduced in England on the same day.



o sort of agree...but please explain how non essential items in super markets were so important last time, proper not budging... not so important this time... or will that be changed when its pointed out it doesnt make sense....


I'm not saying he's perfect mate far from it, but if you're going to close a small local business which sells books, toys etc why let a big super market chain chain reap the benefits of selling the exact same items in store? If businesses are only selling essentials it will also reduce footfall.

Not sure why this wasn't thought of sooner but I don't think any gov. will claim they've acted perfectly in the first lockdown as all were pretty much making it up as they went on, if governments realised they made mistakes in the first lockdown/first few months of Covid and change the rules I don't think that's a bad thing, just learning as we go on.



hmmm..the first lockdown... over zealous police in some parts were patrolling non essential aisles until it was cleared up that if a shop was open, you could buy whatever that shop had in stock... Drakeford made a real point of changing that for his firebreak... and its that sort of pettiness that people get peed with...