Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:57 am
maccydee wrote:ealing_ayatollah wrote:Bluebina wrote:ealing_ayatollah wrote:Bluebina wrote:
That was the original plan that Dom came up with heard immunity let the old die,
Not quite sure how you get letting the old die from protecting and isolating the vulnerable?
Protecting and isolating the vulnerable - OK how?
Much of what we have done just inverted.
It really wouldn't have been that hard to have reinforced the shielding program and provide financial and practical assistance for those within the program keeping them isolated as was the whole point of the program.
If the whole point of lockdown was to protect those particularly vulnerable to it, why try to protect those who are highly unlikely to have severe symptoms?
Thats just illogical. It makes far more sense to focus attention and resources on a smaller, more manageable demographic.
To your other points, as I mentioned in my other post the NHS would have been under less burden if there was less panic - use of the 111 system, more effective hospital management and a different communication approach could all have mitigated that burden, my earlier post covered that in detail so I won't cover that ground again but point you back there.
Final point, slight correction you say 127,000 dead so far, to be accurate that should be up to 127k who died with not of COVID.
Again it is the simple matter of perspective. 127k dead sounds like a big scary number, the reality is it is evidently inflated by the government's own admission of what is classed as a Covid death.
Problem is isolating the most vulnerable and trusting the rest just wouldn’t work. It would get to those most vulnerable.
The measures taken were to limit the spread. They can never stop the spread.
Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:03 am
ealing_ayatollah wrote:maccydee wrote:ealing_ayatollah wrote:Bluebina wrote:ealing_ayatollah wrote:Bluebina wrote:
That was the original plan that Dom came up with heard immunity let the old die,
Not quite sure how you get letting the old die from protecting and isolating the vulnerable?
Protecting and isolating the vulnerable - OK how?
Much of what we have done just inverted.
It really wouldn't have been that hard to have reinforced the shielding program and provide financial and practical assistance for those within the program keeping them isolated as was the whole point of the program.
If the whole point of lockdown was to protect those particularly vulnerable to it, why try to protect those who are highly unlikely to have severe symptoms?
Thats just illogical. It makes far more sense to focus attention and resources on a smaller, more manageable demographic.
To your other points, as I mentioned in my other post the NHS would have been under less burden if there was less panic - use of the 111 system, more effective hospital management and a different communication approach could all have mitigated that burden, my earlier post covered that in detail so I won't cover that ground again but point you back there.
Final point, slight correction you say 127,000 dead so far, to be accurate that should be up to 127k who died with not of COVID.
Again it is the simple matter of perspective. 127k dead sounds like a big scary number, the reality is it is evidently inflated by the government's own admission of what is classed as a Covid death.
Problem is isolating the most vulnerable and trusting the rest just wouldn’t work. It would get to those most vulnerable.
The measures taken were to limit the spread. They can never stop the spread.
Mac - I think this is where we meet an impasse regarding differing views in how it could have been handled - but totally respect yours and other's position and accept I'm in the minority on this![]()
The way I see it if we really boil it down to its barest elements there are only really two approaches that have been adopted.
On one side it is the authoritarian approach that has leveraged fear, that we and most nations have adopted. It is the ultimate expression of the nanny state. We cannot trust you to do the right thing, so we will make rules to keep you in check. It is how you deal with children.
On the other hand there was the more trust-based approach adopted by Sweden and some US states like Florida. Which fostered a similar approach to what I would have advocated for more along the lines of we are in this together if we are all sensible, we can beat this together. It treats the citizens as adults.
I honestly believe that there was a definite moment where we could have taken something akin to the second approach after the initial lockdown and we would have suffered less and established a truly incredible level of social cohesion and togetherness. Instead, for various reasons, we are now perhaps more divided as a society than we have ever been in my lifetime.
Perhaps we're not sensible enough as a society here in the UK to have adopted such an approach, the Swedes do have a natural understanding of collective responsibility - it is why they have one of the best welfare systems in the world yet it is rarely abused like it enough is here.
I just think that if the government gave us a bit of responsibility for our own lives, and had grown-up discussions with us, trusted us they would have been surprised.
Remember there were hundreds of thousands of volunteers (myself included) turned away by the NHS because they weren't needed as there were hundreds of thousands already there to help. The same goes for fruit picking jobs, which the government deemed to be beneath the British citizen so they shipped in Eastern European labour instead - but the volunteers were there.
I totally accept I'm potentially being naively idealistic on this, but I just can't help believe we would have responded better than most expect if the messaging had been different.
Anyway, derailed this off the original topic of Vaccine Passports by accident so my apologies for that chaps.
Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:15 pm
ealing_ayatollah wrote:maccydee wrote:ealing_ayatollah wrote:Bluebina wrote:ealing_ayatollah wrote:Bluebina wrote:
That was the original plan that Dom came up with heard immunity let the old die,
Not quite sure how you get letting the old die from protecting and isolating the vulnerable?
Protecting and isolating the vulnerable - OK how?
Much of what we have done just inverted.
It really wouldn't have been that hard to have reinforced the shielding program and provide financial and practical assistance for those within the program keeping them isolated as was the whole point of the program.
If the whole point of lockdown was to protect those particularly vulnerable to it, why try to protect those who are highly unlikely to have severe symptoms?
Thats just illogical. It makes far more sense to focus attention and resources on a smaller, more manageable demographic.
To your other points, as I mentioned in my other post the NHS would have been under less burden if there was less panic - use of the 111 system, more effective hospital management and a different communication approach could all have mitigated that burden, my earlier post covered that in detail so I won't cover that ground again but point you back there.
Final point, slight correction you say 127,000 dead so far, to be accurate that should be up to 127k who died with not of COVID.
Again it is the simple matter of perspective. 127k dead sounds like a big scary number, the reality is it is evidently inflated by the government's own admission of what is classed as a Covid death.
Problem is isolating the most vulnerable and trusting the rest just wouldn’t work. It would get to those most vulnerable.
The measures taken were to limit the spread. They can never stop the spread.
Mac - I think this is where we meet an impasse regarding differing views in how it could have been handled - but totally respect yours and other's position and accept I'm in the minority on this![]()
The way I see it if we really boil it down to its barest elements there are only really two approaches that have been adopted.
On one side it is the authoritarian approach that has leveraged fear, that we and most nations have adopted. It is the ultimate expression of the nanny state. We cannot trust you to do the right thing, so we will make rules to keep you in check. It is how you deal with children.
On the other hand there was the more trust-based approach adopted by Sweden and some US states like Florida. Which fostered a similar approach to what I would have advocated for more along the lines of we are in this together if we are all sensible, we can beat this together. It treats the citizens as adults.
I honestly believe that there was a definite moment where we could have taken something akin to the second approach after the initial lockdown and we would have suffered less and established a truly incredible level of social cohesion and togetherness. Instead, for various reasons, we are now perhaps more divided as a society than we have ever been in my lifetime.
Perhaps we're not sensible enough as a society here in the UK to have adopted such an approach, the Swedes do have a natural understanding of collective responsibility - it is why they have one of the best welfare systems in the world yet it is rarely abused like it enough is here.
I just think that if the government gave us a bit of responsibility for our own lives, and had grown-up discussions with us, trusted us they would have been surprised.
Remember there were hundreds of thousands of volunteers (myself included) turned away by the NHS because they weren't needed as there were hundreds of thousands already there to help. The same goes for fruit picking jobs, which the government deemed to be beneath the British citizen so they shipped in Eastern European labour instead - but the volunteers were there.
I totally accept I'm potentially being naively idealistic on this, but I just can't help believe we would have responded better than most expect if the messaging had been different.
Anyway, derailed this off the original topic of Vaccine Passports by accident so my apologies for that chaps.
Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:41 pm
maccydee wrote:Sadly, I think you over estimate the British people.
We can be massive knobs and can’t be trusted.
Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:47 pm
Bluebina wrote:Covid will fight back and constantly mutate, we will need to stay one step ahead!
Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:23 pm
ealing_ayatollah wrote:Bluebina wrote:Covid will fight back and constantly mutate, we will need to stay one step ahead!
Trimmed the quote down to make it easier on the page but thanks for reply![]()
This is another part of the prevailing narrative that just doesn't sit right with me.
Viruses do constantly mutate that bit is true but generally, but a virus with a droplet-based transmission like COVID will generally mutate towards becoming more benign not more virulent.
Viruses are rudimentary forms of life, potentially the earliest forms of life that predate cellular lifeforms on Earth. Like all forms of life no matter how complex, their key driver is to replicate. There is a balance the virus has to strike between infecting the host sufficiently to replicate and causing a mode for transmission to a new host.
For example, a virus like cholera which is water transmissible doesn't need to worry about harming its host as it is transmitted through human waste and as it causes diahoerrea the cholera virus can replicate and spread that way.
Covid19 on the other hand, which is droplet-based, has to be much more careful about the balance between virulence and increasing chances of transmission. If it is too virulent (i.e kills its hosts too effectively) it of course massively reduces its opportunity to spread from host to host.
A virus variant that has mutated to become more benign, until the infection is largely asymptomatic, will be spread far greater and become the dominant variant. This is fundamental Darwinian evolutionary theory and it is not new thinking.
Yet, all we hear about on the news is that there might be a new super-variant that will be resistant to the vaccine and will kill us all. Google COVID mutations and the headlines are all alarmist talk of 'super covid', and an 'army of covid'.
Why is there no counterpoint to this in the news? Where is the sensible discussion? Where are the scientists that have long understood the history of the law of declining virulence, evolutionary biology, and the trade-off theory of virulence? Why are they not there to reign in the sensationalist shite that passes for journalism these days?
Yes, there could be a super-strain that emerges more virulent and more transmissible to wipe us all out, but that would be an anomaly and not in line with our general understanding of regular viral evolutionary behavior. It can happen, (this is why we have had flu pandemics in the past for example) there are always outliers in nature that is how evolution progresses.
However, such a mutation is far, far, far less common. The more likely mutation will be the virus evolving towards becoming just another variant of the common cold, which is also a coronavirus.
Again, there could be a much more balanced and less hyperbolic message than that which we are fed. I guess common sense doesn't sell papers as well as fear porn though - so they just keep ramping up the rhetoric as much as they can.
(either that or it's all part of a global plan for domination by the lizard people - my guess is it is something in between the two)![]()
Anyway back to work for the rest of the day now. Have a good day chaps and chimps
Tue Apr 13, 2021 5:46 pm
ealing_ayatollah wrote:Bluebina wrote:Covid will fight back and constantly mutate, we will need to stay one step ahead!
Trimmed the quote down to make it easier on the page but thanks for reply![]()
This is another part of the prevailing narrative that just doesn't sit right with me.
Viruses do constantly mutate that bit is true but generally, but a virus with a droplet-based transmission like COVID will generally mutate towards becoming more benign not more virulent.
Viruses are rudimentary forms of life, potentially the earliest forms of life that predate cellular lifeforms on Earth. Like all forms of life no matter how complex, their key driver is to replicate. There is a balance the virus has to strike between infecting the host sufficiently to replicate and causing a mode for transmission to a new host.
For example, a virus like cholera which is water transmissible doesn't need to worry about harming its host as it is transmitted through human waste and as it causes diahoerrea the cholera virus can replicate and spread that way.
Covid19 on the other hand, which is droplet-based, has to be much more careful about the balance between virulence and increasing chances of transmission. If it is too virulent (i.e kills its hosts too effectively) it of course massively reduces its opportunity to spread from host to host.
A virus variant that has mutated to become more benign, until the infection is largely asymptomatic, will be spread far greater and become the dominant variant. This is fundamental Darwinian evolutionary theory and it is not new thinking.
Yet, all we hear about on the news is that there might be a new super-variant that will be resistant to the vaccine and will kill us all. Google COVID mutations and the headlines are all alarmist talk of 'super covid', and an 'army of covid'.
Why is there no counterpoint to this in the news? Where is the sensible discussion? Where are the scientists that have long understood the history of the law of declining virulence, evolutionary biology, and the trade-off theory of virulence? Why are they not there to reign in the sensationalist shite that passes for journalism these days?
Yes, there could be a super-strain that emerges more virulent and more transmissible to wipe us all out, but that would be an anomaly and not in line with our general understanding of regular viral evolutionary behavior. It can happen, (this is why we have had flu pandemics in the past for example) there are always outliers in nature that is how evolution progresses.
However, such a mutation is far, far, far less common. The more likely mutation will be the virus evolving towards becoming just another variant of the common cold, which is also a coronavirus.
Again, there could be a much more balanced and less hyperbolic message than that which we are fed. I guess common sense doesn't sell papers as well as fear porn though - so they just keep ramping up the rhetoric as much as they can.
(either that or it's all part of a global plan for domination by the lizard people - my guess is it is something in between the two)![]()
Anyway back to work for the rest of the day now. Have a good day chaps and chimps
Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:28 am
maccydee wrote:ealing_ayatollah wrote:Bluebina wrote:Covid will fight back and constantly mutate, we will need to stay one step ahead!
Trimmed the quote down to make it easier on the page but thanks for reply![]()
This is another part of the prevailing narrative that just doesn't sit right with me.
Viruses do constantly mutate that bit is true but generally, but a virus with a droplet-based transmission like COVID will generally mutate towards becoming more benign not more virulent.
Viruses are rudimentary forms of life, potentially the earliest forms of life that predate cellular lifeforms on Earth. Like all forms of life no matter how complex, their key driver is to replicate. There is a balance the virus has to strike between infecting the host sufficiently to replicate and causing a mode for transmission to a new host.
For example, a virus like cholera which is water transmissible doesn't need to worry about harming its host as it is transmitted through human waste and as it causes diahoerrea the cholera virus can replicate and spread that way.
Covid19 on the other hand, which is droplet-based, has to be much more careful about the balance between virulence and increasing chances of transmission. If it is too virulent (i.e kills its hosts too effectively) it of course massively reduces its opportunity to spread from host to host.
A virus variant that has mutated to become more benign, until the infection is largely asymptomatic, will be spread far greater and become the dominant variant. This is fundamental Darwinian evolutionary theory and it is not new thinking.
Yet, all we hear about on the news is that there might be a new super-variant that will be resistant to the vaccine and will kill us all. Google COVID mutations and the headlines are all alarmist talk of 'super covid', and an 'army of covid'.
Why is there no counterpoint to this in the news? Where is the sensible discussion? Where are the scientists that have long understood the history of the law of declining virulence, evolutionary biology, and the trade-off theory of virulence? Why are they not there to reign in the sensationalist shite that passes for journalism these days?
Yes, there could be a super-strain that emerges more virulent and more transmissible to wipe us all out, but that would be an anomaly and not in line with our general understanding of regular viral evolutionary behavior. It can happen, (this is why we have had flu pandemics in the past for example) there are always outliers in nature that is how evolution progresses.
However, such a mutation is far, far, far less common. The more likely mutation will be the virus evolving towards becoming just another variant of the common cold, which is also a coronavirus.
Again, there could be a much more balanced and less hyperbolic message than that which we are fed. I guess common sense doesn't sell papers as well as fear porn though - so they just keep ramping up the rhetoric as much as they can.
(either that or it's all part of a global plan for domination by the lizard people - my guess is it is something in between the two)![]()
Anyway back to work for the rest of the day now. Have a good day chaps and chimps
It will eventually mutate to a sniffle. Well that’s what the experts have said anyway.
Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:50 am
Bluebina wrote:maccydee wrote:ealing_ayatollah wrote:Bluebina wrote:Covid will fight back and constantly mutate, we will need to stay one step ahead!
Trimmed the quote down to make it easier on the page but thanks for reply![]()
This is another part of the prevailing narrative that just doesn't sit right with me.
Viruses do constantly mutate that bit is true but generally, but a virus with a droplet-based transmission like COVID will generally mutate towards becoming more benign not more virulent.
Viruses are rudimentary forms of life, potentially the earliest forms of life that predate cellular lifeforms on Earth. Like all forms of life no matter how complex, their key driver is to replicate. There is a balance the virus has to strike between infecting the host sufficiently to replicate and causing a mode for transmission to a new host.
For example, a virus like cholera which is water transmissible doesn't need to worry about harming its host as it is transmitted through human waste and as it causes diahoerrea the cholera virus can replicate and spread that way.
Covid19 on the other hand, which is droplet-based, has to be much more careful about the balance between virulence and increasing chances of transmission. If it is too virulent (i.e kills its hosts too effectively) it of course massively reduces its opportunity to spread from host to host.
A virus variant that has mutated to become more benign, until the infection is largely asymptomatic, will be spread far greater and become the dominant variant. This is fundamental Darwinian evolutionary theory and it is not new thinking.
Yet, all we hear about on the news is that there might be a new super-variant that will be resistant to the vaccine and will kill us all. Google COVID mutations and the headlines are all alarmist talk of 'super covid', and an 'army of covid'.
Why is there no counterpoint to this in the news? Where is the sensible discussion? Where are the scientists that have long understood the history of the law of declining virulence, evolutionary biology, and the trade-off theory of virulence? Why are they not there to reign in the sensationalist shite that passes for journalism these days?
Yes, there could be a super-strain that emerges more virulent and more transmissible to wipe us all out, but that would be an anomaly and not in line with our general understanding of regular viral evolutionary behavior. It can happen, (this is why we have had flu pandemics in the past for example) there are always outliers in nature that is how evolution progresses.
However, such a mutation is far, far, far less common. The more likely mutation will be the virus evolving towards becoming just another variant of the common cold, which is also a coronavirus.
Again, there could be a much more balanced and less hyperbolic message than that which we are fed. I guess common sense doesn't sell papers as well as fear porn though - so they just keep ramping up the rhetoric as much as they can.
(either that or it's all part of a global plan for domination by the lizard people - my guess is it is something in between the two)![]()
Anyway back to work for the rest of the day now. Have a good day chaps and chimps
It will eventually mutate to a sniffle. Well that’s what the experts have said anyway.
Hopefully one day![]()
Mon Apr 19, 2021 1:02 pm
maccydee wrote:ealing_ayatollah wrote:Bluebina wrote:Covid will fight back and constantly mutate, we will need to stay one step ahead!
Trimmed the quote down to make it easier on the page but thanks for reply![]()
This is another part of the prevailing narrative that just doesn't sit right with me.
Viruses do constantly mutate that bit is true but generally, but a virus with a droplet-based transmission like COVID will generally mutate towards becoming more benign not more virulent.
Viruses are rudimentary forms of life, potentially the earliest forms of life that predate cellular lifeforms on Earth. Like all forms of life no matter how complex, their key driver is to replicate. There is a balance the virus has to strike between infecting the host sufficiently to replicate and causing a mode for transmission to a new host.
For example, a virus like cholera which is water transmissible doesn't need to worry about harming its host as it is transmitted through human waste and as it causes diahoerrea the cholera virus can replicate and spread that way.
Covid19 on the other hand, which is droplet-based, has to be much more careful about the balance between virulence and increasing chances of transmission. If it is too virulent (i.e kills its hosts too effectively) it of course massively reduces its opportunity to spread from host to host.
A virus variant that has mutated to become more benign, until the infection is largely asymptomatic, will be spread far greater and become the dominant variant. This is fundamental Darwinian evolutionary theory and it is not new thinking.
Yet, all we hear about on the news is that there might be a new super-variant that will be resistant to the vaccine and will kill us all. Google COVID mutations and the headlines are all alarmist talk of 'super covid', and an 'army of covid'.
Why is there no counterpoint to this in the news? Where is the sensible discussion? Where are the scientists that have long understood the history of the law of declining virulence, evolutionary biology, and the trade-off theory of virulence? Why are they not there to reign in the sensationalist shite that passes for journalism these days?
Yes, there could be a super-strain that emerges more virulent and more transmissible to wipe us all out, but that would be an anomaly and not in line with our general understanding of regular viral evolutionary behavior. It can happen, (this is why we have had flu pandemics in the past for example) there are always outliers in nature that is how evolution progresses.
However, such a mutation is far, far, far less common. The more likely mutation will be the virus evolving towards becoming just another variant of the common cold, which is also a coronavirus.
Again, there could be a much more balanced and less hyperbolic message than that which we are fed. I guess common sense doesn't sell papers as well as fear porn though - so they just keep ramping up the rhetoric as much as they can.
(either that or it's all part of a global plan for domination by the lizard people - my guess is it is something in between the two)![]()
Anyway back to work for the rest of the day now. Have a good day chaps and chimps
It will eventually mutate to a sniffle. Well that’s what the experts have said anyway.