Farage

Another master stroke from the PM in waiting. He is, whether you like it or not, a political genius.

"The Establishment are unfairly attacking me"......f**k this shit, let's ask for the endorsement of the democratic people.

Appaerently the Tories are too scared to put up a candidate, let's see if Labour do!

Hes been found out totally and this is just a pathetic stunt. Utterly corrupt taking handouts from his crypto friends and the net is closing in. Hes just a Trump wannabe. The 'establishment' are harrassing me. Boo hoo. Thats democracy right there, calling out and questionning. Thats the society I want to live in not a Trump style dictatorship.

A Trump style dictatorships FFS, Love seeing these quarter wit yank melts, protesting about Trumps dictatorship. Completely oblivious to the fact that if they lived in a dictatorship, they wouldn’t be allowed to protest. Farage has taken £5m and is, rightly, being slaughtered for it. Labour accepted £4m, from a hedge fund, registered in the Cayman Islands and fekk all said. Our MSM are an utter disgrace, and it’s time the extreme left BBC filth was defunded. Open your eyes, Starmer is the most sinister PM we’ve ever had, our free speech is being suppressed,,like never before. Imagine being arrested for a tweet.

The establishment don' t want Farage; end of. Their jobs are on the line, and not just MPs.

I tend to agree; and it is clear to me that the ‘Establishment’ are trying their darnest to both discredit and intimidate Nigel Farage as an individual by fair means or foul. It could rebound on them big-time

For me, not that I’m against him as a person, giving Andy Burnham an unopposed path to the ‘top job’ from outside Parliament, and without calling a General Election, is far worse than what Farage is doing

Nigel Farage being re-elected (relatively) unopposed in what is already his own seat, will simply embolden him and his Reform Party going forward to the next election

The mainstream Parties would be better contesting the Clacton seat and getting their own policies and commitments across, rather than, as it appears, running scared of Nigel Farage, and allowing him to take the high ground without a fight from those who verbally oppose him

Calling it ‘a gimmick’ and standing down from this by-election might just be the worse ‘collective’ idea they’ve had to date

Quite funny to see someone who has five houses and worked in the city claim he's not the establishment.

As for his issues with the media, they helped him on the way up so can't complain that they're now asking him legitimate questions (although harassment of his daughter is wrong, if true).

He can't claim he's the anti-establishment candidate in this by-election when he's running against someone with a bin on their head.

The other parties are not withdrawing because they can't win. Plenty of parties knew they can't win in many constituencies but still run. It's because we all know there will be another by-election shortly afterwards when he's inevitably found guilty.

He has tried to call everyone else's bluff and ended up looking a bit silly.

I don't know if he'll be Reform leader by the next election. But I will happily make a bet for charity that he won't be PM after the next election.

Not a fan of Badenoch but I thought she put it best when she said he was just having a "hissy fit".

So it's one count against the other in Clacton!

Quite funny to see someone who has five houses and worked in the city claim he's not the establishment.

As for his issues with the media, they helped him on the way up so can't complain that they're now asking him legitimate questions (although harassment of his daughter is wrong, if true).

He can't claim he's the anti-establishment candidate in this by-election when he's running against someone with a bin on their head.

The other parties are not withdrawing because they can't win. Plenty of parties knew they can't win in many constituencies but still run. It's because we all know there will be another by-election shortly afterwards when he's inevitably found guilty.

He has tried to call everyone else's bluff and ended up looking a bit silly.

I don't know if he'll be Reform leader by the next election. But I will happily make a bet for charity that he won't be PM after the next election.

Not a fan of Badenoch but I thought she put it best when she said he was just having a "hissy fit".

“Harassment” of his daughter is the overstatement of the century.

Sky News went to the house, which was the house that Farage was registered to vote in at the previous election, without a camera and asked to speak to Nigel Farage. Person in house, presumably his daughter, didn’t engage so they left it.

Incidentally I believe (but cannot confirm) that there are photos provided by Farage himself of him at that house standing in the driveway.

If anything it sounds like he’s used his own daughter as a human shield against the press.

Quite funny to see someone who has five houses and worked in the city claim he's not the establishment.

As for his issues with the media, they helped him on the way up so can't complain that they're now asking him legitimate questions (although harassment of his daughter is wrong, if true).

He can't claim he's the anti-establishment candidate in this by-election when he's running against someone with a bin on their head.

The other parties are not withdrawing because they can't win. Plenty of parties knew they can't win in many constituencies but still run. It's because we all know there will be another by-election shortly afterwards when he's inevitably found guilty.

He has tried to call everyone else's bluff and ended up looking a bit silly.

I don't know if he'll be Reform leader by the next election. But I will happily make a bet for charity that he won't be PM after the next election.

Not a fan of Badenoch but I thought she put it best when she said he was just having a "hissy fit".

“Harassment” of his daughter is the overstatement of the century.

Sky News went to the house, which was the house that Farage was registered to vote in at the previous election, without a camera and asked to speak to Nigel Farage. Person in house, presumably his daughter, didn’t engage so they left it.

Incidentally I believe (but cannot confirm) that there are photos provided by Farage himself of him at that house standing in the driveway.

If anything it sounds like he’s used his own daughter as a human shield against the press.

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Quite funny to see someone who has five houses and worked in the city claim he's not the establishment.

As for his issues with the media, they helped him on the way up so can't complain that they're now asking him legitimate questions (although harassment of his daughter is wrong, if true).

He can't claim he's the anti-establishment candidate in this by-election when he's running against someone with a bin on their head.

The other parties are not withdrawing because they can't win. Plenty of parties knew they can't win in many constituencies but still run. It's because we all know there will be another by-election shortly afterwards when he's inevitably found guilty.

He has tried to call everyone else's bluff and ended up looking a bit silly.

I don't know if he'll be Reform leader by the next election. But I will happily make a bet for charity that he won't be PM after the next election.

Not a fan of Badenoch but I thought she put it best when she said he was just having a "hissy fit".

“Harassment” of his daughter is the overstatement of the century.

Sky News went to the house, which was the house that Farage was registered to vote in at the previous election, without a camera and asked to speak to Nigel Farage. Person in house, presumably his daughter, didn’t engage so they left it.

Incidentally I believe (but cannot confirm) that there are photos provided by Farage himself of him at that house standing in the driveway.

If anything it sounds like he’s used his own daughter as a human shield against the press.

FFS, how deluded are you? Everything you state is infactual, it is a mile away from the truth.

His poor daughter has been harassed time and time again. Sky News have changed "their" version of events no less than 4 times.

And for the record, if you were in public life would you be happy for the press to harass your daughters or Granddaughters? Would you? I mean would you be happy about that?

Get a grip man, there are lines in public office that the press should not cross and this is one of them.

Quite funny to see someone who has five houses and worked in the city claim he's not the establishment.

As for his issues with the media, they helped him on the way up so can't complain that they're now asking him legitimate questions (although harassment of his daughter is wrong, if true).

He can't claim he's the anti-establishment candidate in this by-election when he's running against someone with a bin on their head.

The other parties are not withdrawing because they can't win. Plenty of parties knew they can't win in many constituencies but still run. It's because we all know there will be another by-election shortly afterwards when he's inevitably found guilty.

He has tried to call everyone else's bluff and ended up looking a bit silly.

I don't know if he'll be Reform leader by the next election. But I will happily make a bet for charity that he won't be PM after the next election.

Not a fan of Badenoch but I thought she put it best when she said he was just having a "hissy fit".

“Harassment” of his daughter is the overstatement of the century.

Sky News went to the house, which was the house that Farage was registered to vote in at the previous election, without a camera and asked to speak to Nigel Farage. Person in house, presumably his daughter, didn’t engage so they left it.

Incidentally I believe (but cannot confirm) that there are photos provided by Farage himself of him at that house standing in the driveway.

If anything it sounds like he’s used his own daughter as a human shield against the press.

FFS, how deluded are you? Everything you state is in factual, it is a mile away from the truth.

His poor daughter has been harassed time and time again. Sky News have changed "their" version of events no less than 4 times.

And for the record, if you were in public life would you be happy for the press to harass your daughters or Granddaughters? Would you? I mean would you be happy about that?

Get a grip man, there are lines in public office that the press should not cross and this is one of them.

Also a load of loosing y lefties stormed a pub he was in a out 50 he had to leave to the car they then smashed his car up which was a right off "the soft left hey".

Quite funny to see someone who has five houses and worked in the city claim he's not the establishment.

As for his issues with the media, they helped him on the way up so can't complain that they're now asking him legitimate questions (although harassment of his daughter is wrong, if true).

He can't claim he's the anti-establishment candidate in this by-election when he's running against someone with a bin on their head.

The other parties are not withdrawing because they can't win. Plenty of parties knew they can't win in many constituencies but still run. It's because we all know there will be another by-election shortly afterwards when he's inevitably found guilty.

He has tried to call everyone else's bluff and ended up looking a bit silly.

I don't know if he'll be Reform leader by the next election. But I will happily make a bet for charity that he won't be PM after the next election.

Not a fan of Badenoch but I thought she put it best when she said he was just having a "hissy fit".

“Harassment” of his daughter is the overstatement of the century.

Sky News went to the house, which was the house that Farage was registered to vote in at the previous election, without a camera and asked to speak to Nigel Farage. Person in house, presumably his daughter, didn’t engage so they left it.

Incidentally I believe (but cannot confirm) that there are photos provided by Farage himself of him at that house standing in the driveway.

If anything it sounds like he’s used his own daughter as a human shield against the press.

FFS, how deluded are you? Everything you state is in factual, it is a mile away from the truth.

His poor daughter has been harassed time and time again. Sky News have changed "their" version of events no less than 4 times.

And for the record, if you were in public life would you be happy for the press to harass your daughters or Granddaughters? Would you? I mean would you be happy about that?

Get a grip man, there are lines in public office that the press should not cross and this is one of them.

Also a load of loosing y lefties stormed a pub he was in a out 50 he had to leave to the car they then smashed his car up which was a right off "the soft left hey".

Strange how it’s a write off when he explicitly said that he didn’t bother to report it to insurance. Almost like that means there’s no paper trail evidence of it…

Quite funny to see someone who has five houses and worked in the city claim he's not the establishment.

As for his issues with the media, they helped him on the way up so can't complain that they're now asking him legitimate questions (although harassment of his daughter is wrong, if true).

He can't claim he's the anti-establishment candidate in this by-election when he's running against someone with a bin on their head.

The other parties are not withdrawing because they can't win. Plenty of parties knew they can't win in many constituencies but still run. It's because we all know there will be another by-election shortly afterwards when he's inevitably found guilty.

He has tried to call everyone else's bluff and ended up looking a bit silly.

I don't know if he'll be Reform leader by the next election. But I will happily make a bet for charity that he won't be PM after the next election.

Not a fan of Badenoch but I thought she put it best when she said he was just having a "hissy fit".

“Harassment” of his daughter is the overstatement of the century.

Sky News went to the house, which was the house that Farage was registered to vote in at the previous election, without a camera and asked to speak to Nigel Farage. Person in house, presumably his daughter, didn’t engage so they left it.

Incidentally I believe (but cannot confirm) that there are photos provided by Farage himself of him at that house standing in the driveway.

If anything it sounds like he’s used his own daughter as a human shield against the press.

FFS, how deluded are you? Everything you state is in factual, it is a mile away from the truth.

His poor daughter has been harassed time and time again. Sky News have changed "their" version of events no less than 4 times.

And for the record, if you were in public life would you be happy for the press to harass your daughters or Granddaughters? Would you? I mean would you be happy about that?

Get a grip man, there are lines in public office that the press should not cross and this is one of them.

Sky News have been pretty clear on their side of the story.

Strange how doorstepping is only an issue now it’s poor victim Nige being held to account when other politicians have had to deal with it for decades.

Quite funny to see someone who has five houses and worked in the city claim he's not the establishment.

As for his issues with the media, they helped him on the way up so can't complain that they're now asking him legitimate questions (although harassment of his daughter is wrong, if true).

He can't claim he's the anti-establishment candidate in this by-election when he's running against someone with a bin on their head.

The other parties are not withdrawing because they can't win. Plenty of parties knew they can't win in many constituencies but still run. It's because we all know there will be another by-election shortly afterwards when he's inevitably found guilty.

He has tried to call everyone else's bluff and ended up looking a bit silly.

I don't know if he'll be Reform leader by the next election. But I will happily make a bet for charity that he won't be PM after the next election.

Not a fan of Badenoch but I thought she put it best when she said he was just having a "hissy fit".

“Harassment” of his daughter is the overstatement of the century.

Sky News went to the house, which was the house that Farage was registered to vote in at the previous election, without a camera and asked to speak to Nigel Farage. Person in house, presumably his daughter, didn’t engage so they left it.

Incidentally I believe (but cannot confirm) that there are photos provided by Farage himself of him at that house standing in the driveway.

If anything it sounds like he’s used his own daughter as a human shield against the press.

FFS, how deluded are you? Everything you state is in factual, it is a mile away from the truth.

His poor daughter has been harassed time and time again. Sky News have changed "their" version of events no less than 4 times.

And for the record, if you were in public life would you be happy for the press to harass your daughters or Granddaughters? Would you? I mean would you be happy about that?

Get a grip man, there are lines in public office that the press should not cross and this is one of them.

Also a load of loosing y lefties stormed a pub he was in a out 50 he had to leave to the car they then smashed his car up which was a right off "the soft left hey".

Strange how it’s a write off when he explicitly said that he didn’t bother to report it to insurance. Almost like that means there’s no paper trail evidence of it…

Are you saying he was lying that it was not a right off?

Quite funny to see someone who has five houses and worked in the city claim he's not the establishment.

As for his issues with the media, they helped him on the way up so can't complain that they're now asking him legitimate questions (although harassment of his daughter is wrong, if true).

He can't claim he's the anti-establishment candidate in this by-election when he's running against someone with a bin on their head.

The other parties are not withdrawing because they can't win. Plenty of parties knew they can't win in many constituencies but still run. It's because we all know there will be another by-election shortly afterwards when he's inevitably found guilty.

He has tried to call everyone else's bluff and ended up looking a bit silly.

I don't know if he'll be Reform leader by the next election. But I will happily make a bet for charity that he won't be PM after the next election.

Not a fan of Badenoch but I thought she put it best when she said he was just having a "hissy fit".

“Harassment” of his daughter is the overstatement of the century.

Sky News went to the house, which was the house that Farage was registered to vote in at the previous election, without a camera and asked to speak to Nigel Farage. Person in house, presumably his daughter, didn’t engage so they left it.

Incidentally I believe (but cannot confirm) that there are photos provided by Farage himself of him at that house standing in the driveway.

If anything it sounds like he’s used his own daughter as a human shield against the press.

FFS, how deluded are you? Everything you state is in factual, it is a mile away from the truth.

His poor daughter has been harassed time and time again. Sky News have changed "their" version of events no less than 4 times.

And for the record, if you were in public life would you be happy for the press to harass your daughters or Granddaughters? Would you? I mean would you be happy about that?

Get a grip man, there are lines in public office that the press should not cross and this is one of them.

Also a load of loosing y lefties stormed a pub he was in a out 50 he had to leave to the car they then smashed his car up which was a right off "the soft left hey".

Strange how it’s a write off when he explicitly said that he didn’t bother to report it to insurance. Almost like that means there’s no paper trail evidence of it…

Are you saying he was lying that it was not a right off?

I’m saying that it’s awfully unusual for a guy who demonstrably likes making easy money not to bother to make the insurance claim which would be the easiest money in the world when his car has been attacked and destroyed by 50 people.

It also coincidentally means there’s no evidence that this happened and also strange that not one of the mob of 50 people or so have ever publicly bragged about chasing him out of a pub.

Worcestor i think you are wrong with Farage and the establishment. He'd give his right bollock to be part of the real establishment. The real establishment is people like John Major, Tony Blair, Eddie George, the Rothschilds, the king, and anyone in the privy council........The ones who really make the decisions.

Farage is just an upper-middle-class wannabe who went to a minor public school that told him he was special, did what was expected in the city, wasn't great but he could have been bought much cheaper with a ticket to the outer inner power circle years ago. The real establishment has underestimated him time and time again, and now it too late to invite him in.

How cheap is £5 million? It barely buys you a L1 striker !!!

I love the confidentiality. His bank (whoever he was debanked) informs the National Crime Agency of potential money laundering (try city road then), their job is to investigate, he is not being prosecuted, so I guess it was legitimate; HMRC must be fine with it (blows my mind) it then "falls" into the Guardian's hands on the same day the estranged Prince found out what happens when you are no longer in the club. Things leak........

I think they have underestimated his support. I wouldn't normally consider a person or party like Farage's. But what has happened with the last Tory and Labour government makes me ignore the low-level spivving just to get a change.

Just to add. Burnham will be the first PM never to have been leader of the opposition or held one of the big three head of state jobs. I am still livid (and i voted labour last time)

Worcestor i think you are wrong with Farage and the establishment. He'd give his right bollock to be part of the real establishment. The real establishment is people like John Major, Tony Blair, Eddie George, the Rothschilds, the king, and anyone in the privy council........The ones who really make the decisions.

Farage is just an upper-middle-class wannabe who went to a minor public school that told him he was special, did what was expected in the city, wasn't great but he could have been bought much cheaper with a ticket to the outer inner power circle years ago. The real establishment has underestimated him time and time again, and now it too late to invite him in.

How cheap is £5 million? It barely buys you a L1 striker !!!

I love the confidentiality. His bank (whoever he was debanked) informs the National Crime Agency of potential money laundering (try city road then), their job is to investigate, he is not being prosecuted, so I guess it was legitimate; HMRC must be fine with it (blows my mind) it then "falls" into the Guardian's hands on the same day the estranged Prince found out what happens when you are no longer in the club. Things leak........

I think they have underestimated his support. I wouldn't normally consider a person or party like Farage's. But what has happened with the last Tory and Labour government makes me ignore the low-level spivving just to get a change.

Just to add. Burnham will be the first PM never to have been leader of the opposition or held one of the big three head of state jobs. I am still livid (and i voted labour last time)

I think you have possibly fallen into the trap of buying what Farage says. For the record, I don't criticise anyone for that. He comes over as convincing, he has done a good job at persuading people he's just like them - my opinion is he isn't, others take a different view.

His point about being anti-establishment may carry more weight if he didn't bring in people like Jenrick, who literally were the establishment before the last election. It was rather amusing therefore to see Jenrick going on about being against the establishment yesterday.

I genuinely don't believe his support sustains. You can agree or disagree with his politics but that's not the reason I don't think the support lasts. The reason is that people have been given the opportunity in the past to vote for a party that isn't Labour or Conservatives, and every time they don't take that opportunity. One example is 2010, Lib Dems were right up there with the two main parties in terms of support but when it came to the ballot box, people decided it wasn't for them.

Reform need more than just their core support to win the GE. Labour won in 2024 with less than 34% of the vote, a very small percentage for the majority we got. Tories majority in 2019 was 43%, Tory majority in 2015 was 37%. Blair in 1997 and 2001 got over 40%. Even if you look at the hung parliaments of 2010 and 2017, the Tories had 36%+.

Labour and Conservative also have a higher core support. They will just always have that. For example, when I was campaigning for Labour in 2019 people were saying to me "I'll vote for you but you need to change the direction you're going in". We got 32% in that election, despite the party being in a mess. Likewise, Sunak got nearly 24% despite the state they were in.

The point I'm making is Reform have so much more work to do than Labour or Conservative to win an election. They'll probably need at least 32% and that will include winning over many who aren't sure about them, because they naturally do not have the same numbers of core support.

This comes into my thinking when I say I doubt they'll win the next election. Their polling numbers are also on the slide - partly because of them, partly because Badenoch has improved her performance.

They could make me eat my words and win a landslide, but I can only say the situation as I personally currently see it.

When it comes to Andy, I'm sure many will say the same as you. But the fact is he is the most popular Labour politician and people had made it clear they didn't like the current PM. Something had to happen.

I've made no secret that I've worked with Andy on all his mayoral campaigns and have known him and those around him for a while. So I am personally delighted that he'll be coming in. It makes the hard work that people like me put in during his by-election worth it. So with him, it is difficult for me to be unbiased.

Where people are making a big mistake is discounting the Conservatives for the next GE. I disagree with Badenoch on practically everything but I said to people in Labour about a year ago that she would improve her performance, and that nobody should assume they're out of it.

She has now massively improved her performance and I expect them to be right in the fight within six months. People made the mistake of saying Labour wouldn't win after 2019, they shouldn't make the same mistake with the Conservatives.

You make some very well articulated points there Ned, well reasoned but also debatable.

I would argue that there is a "silent" majority who are not happy with the uniparty political stasis.

They have had enough of lies, lies and then more bullshit. The establishment still think that the people of this country, who ultimately hold all the power, are stupid, dumb, can't think for themselves, get their news from BBC, SKY or ITV and cannot see through the propaganda.

There is a storm brewing, and neither the Labour or Conservative parties are going to know what hit them. That is the reason they are going for Farage now, they are terrified of the status quo being torn to pieces.

Worcestor i think you are wrong with Farage and the establishment. He'd give his right bollock to be part of the real establishment. The real establishment is people like John Major, Tony Blair, Eddie George, the Rothschilds, the king, and anyone in the privy council........The ones who really make the decisions.

Farage is just an upper-middle-class wannabe who went to a minor public school that told him he was special, did what was expected in the city, wasn't great but he could have been bought much cheaper with a ticket to the outer inner power circle years ago. The real establishment has underestimated him time and time again, and now it too late to invite him in.

How cheap is £5 million? It barely buys you a L1 striker !!!

I love the confidentiality. His bank (whoever he was debanked) informs the National Crime Agency of potential money laundering (try city road then), their job is to investigate, he is not being prosecuted, so I guess it was legitimate; HMRC must be fine with it (blows my mind) it then "falls" into the Guardian's hands on the same day the estranged Prince found out what happens when you are no longer in the club. Things leak........

I think they have underestimated his support. I wouldn't normally consider a person or party like Farage's. But what has happened with the last Tory and Labour government makes me ignore the low-level spivving just to get a change.

Just to add. Burnham will be the first PM never to have been leader of the opposition or held one of the big three head of state jobs. I am still livid (and i voted labour last time)

I think you have possibly fallen into the trap of buying what Farage says. For the record, I don't criticise anyone for that. He comes over as convincing, he has done a good job at persuading people he's just like them - my opinion is he isn't, others take a different view.

His point about being anti-establishment may carry more weight if he didn't bring in people like Jenrick, who literally were the establishment before the last election. It was rather amusing therefore to see Jenrick going on about being against the establishment yesterday.

I genuinely don't believe his support sustains. You can agree or disagree with his politics but that's not the reason I don't think the support lasts. The reason is that people have been given the opportunity in the past to vote for a party that isn't Labour or Conservatives, and every time they don't take that opportunity. One example is 2010, Lib Dems were right up there with the two main parties in terms of support but when it came to the ballot box, people decided it wasn't for them.

Reform need more than just their core support to win the GE. Labour won in 2024 with less than 34% of the vote, a very small percentage for the majority we got. Tories majority in 2019 was 43%, Tory majority in 2015 was 37%. Blair in 1997 and 2001 got over 40%. Even if you look at the hung parliaments of 2010 and 2017, the Tories had 36%+.

Labour and Conservative also have a higher core support. They will just always have that. For example, when I was campaigning for Labour in 2019 people were saying to me "I'll vote for you but you need to change the direction you're going in". We got 32% in that election, despite the party being in a mess. Likewise, Sunak got nearly 24% despite the state they were in.

The point I'm making is Reform have so much more work to do than Labour or Conservative to win an election. They'll probably need at least 32% and that will include winning over many who aren't sure about them, because they naturally do not have the same numbers of core support.

This comes into my thinking when I say I doubt they'll win the next election. Their polling numbers are also on the slide - partly because of them, partly because Badenoch has improved her performance.

They could make me eat my words and win a landslide, but I can only say the situation as I personally currently see it.

When it comes to Andy, I'm sure many will say the same as you. But the fact is he is the most popular Labour politician and people had made it clear they didn't like the current PM. Something had to happen.

I've made no secret that I've worked with Andy on all his mayoral campaigns and have known him and those around him for a while. So I am personally delighted that he'll be coming in. It makes the hard work that people like me put in during his by-election worth it. So with him, it is difficult for me to be unbiased.

Where people are making a big mistake is discounting the Conservatives for the next GE. I disagree with Badenoch on practically everything but I said to people in Labour about a year ago that she would improve her performance, and that nobody should assume they're out of it.

She has now massively improved her performance and I expect them to be right in the fight within six months. People made the mistake of saying Labour wouldn't win after 2019, they shouldn't make the same mistake with the Conservatives.

I think you are looking through historic eyes, the landscape has changed. We agree on Farage; he'll never be PM.

The Tory vote stayed at home or drifted to Reform or libs but not in massive numbers. The Tories were unelectable, and even the die-hards knew it. They need to cull.

But, 2024 wasn't 97 when i convinced my tory wife to vote for Blair.

The labour and (tory) votes

2015 9.3 (11.3)
2017 12.8 (13.9)
2019 10.2 (13.6)
2024 9.7 mill (6.8)

Voters flocked from the Tories but not to labour !! I can not see how Burnham improves on 9.7 million even if farage is deported.

Worcestor i think you are wrong with Farage and the establishment. He'd give his right bollock to be part of the real establishment. The real establishment is people like John Major, Tony Blair, Eddie George, the Rothschilds, the king, and anyone in the privy council........The ones who really make the decisions.

Farage is just an upper-middle-class wannabe who went to a minor public school that told him he was special, did what was expected in the city, wasn't great but he could have been bought much cheaper with a ticket to the outer inner power circle years ago. The real establishment has underestimated him time and time again, and now it too late to invite him in.

How cheap is £5 million? It barely buys you a L1 striker !!!

I love the confidentiality. His bank (whoever he was debanked) informs the National Crime Agency of potential money laundering (try city road then), their job is to investigate, he is not being prosecuted, so I guess it was legitimate; HMRC must be fine with it (blows my mind) it then "falls" into the Guardian's hands on the same day the estranged Prince found out what happens when you are no longer in the club. Things leak........

I think they have underestimated his support. I wouldn't normally consider a person or party like Farage's. But what has happened with the last Tory and Labour government makes me ignore the low-level spivving just to get a change.

Just to add. Burnham will be the first PM never to have been leader of the opposition or held one of the big three head of state jobs. I am still livid (and i voted labour last time)

I think you have possibly fallen into the trap of buying what Farage says. For the record, I don't criticise anyone for that. He comes over as convincing, he has done a good job at persuading people he's just like them - my opinion is he isn't, others take a different view.

His point about being anti-establishment may carry more weight if he didn't bring in people like Jenrick, who literally were the establishment before the last election. It was rather amusing therefore to see Jenrick going on about being against the establishment yesterday.

I genuinely don't believe his support sustains. You can agree or disagree with his politics but that's not the reason I don't think the support lasts. The reason is that people have been given the opportunity in the past to vote for a party that isn't Labour or Conservatives, and every time they don't take that opportunity. One example is 2010, Lib Dems were right up there with the two main parties in terms of support but when it came to the ballot box, people decided it wasn't for them.

Reform need more than just their core support to win the GE. Labour won in 2024 with less than 34% of the vote, a very small percentage for the majority we got. Tories majority in 2019 was 43%, Tory majority in 2015 was 37%. Blair in 1997 and 2001 got over 40%. Even if you look at the hung parliaments of 2010 and 2017, the Tories had 36%+.

Labour and Conservative also have a higher core support. They will just always have that. For example, when I was campaigning for Labour in 2019 people were saying to me "I'll vote for you but you need to change the direction you're going in". We got 32% in that election, despite the party being in a mess. Likewise, Sunak got nearly 24% despite the state they were in.

The point I'm making is Reform have so much more work to do than Labour or Conservative to win an election. They'll probably need at least 32% and that will include winning over many who aren't sure about them, because they naturally do not have the same numbers of core support.

This comes into my thinking when I say I doubt they'll win the next election. Their polling numbers are also on the slide - partly because of them, partly because Badenoch has improved her performance.

They could make me eat my words and win a landslide, but I can only say the situation as I personally currently see it.

When it comes to Andy, I'm sure many will say the same as you. But the fact is he is the most popular Labour politician and people had made it clear they didn't like the current PM. Something had to happen.

I've made no secret that I've worked with Andy on all his mayoral campaigns and have known him and those around him for a while. So I am personally delighted that he'll be coming in. It makes the hard work that people like me put in during his by-election worth it. So with him, it is difficult for me to be unbiased.

Where people are making a big mistake is discounting the Conservatives for the next GE. I disagree with Badenoch on practically everything but I said to people in Labour about a year ago that she would improve her performance, and that nobody should assume they're out of it.

She has now massively improved her performance and I expect them to be right in the fight within six months. People made the mistake of saying Labour wouldn't win after 2019, they shouldn't make the same mistake with the Conservatives.

I think you are looking through historic eyes, the landscape has changed. We agree on Farage; he'll never be PM.

The Tory vote stayed at home or drifted to Reform or libs but not in massive numbers. The Tories were unelectable, and even the die-hards knew it. They need to cull.

But, 2024 wasn't 97 when i convinced my tory wife to vote for Blair.

The labour and (tory) votes

2015 9.3 (11.3)
2017 12.8 (13.9)
2019 10.2 (13.6)
2024 9.7 mill (6.8)

Voters flocked from the Tories but not to labour !! I can not see how Burnham improves on 9.7 million even if farage is deported.

Well we're talking about different things. I'm talking of percentages, you're talking of figures.

The point I'm making is Labour and Conservative are extremely unlikely to drop below 20%.

I wouldn't have expected Tory votes to go to Labour. Blair was different, he had a unique ability that no Labour leader had to attract a broad spectrum of voters. Highly doubt any Labour leader would be able to do that again, certainly in my lifetime.

I think the days of a 40%+ vote share are gone.

It is not inconceivable that Andy or Badenoch win the next election with 30%.

If I had to put a bet on it, I would say the next election will result in Labour as the largest party but no majority. Coalitions will become the norm over the next 20 years.

But that is a guess as we don't know when that election will be. Could be next year, could be three years away (FYI I am in favour of an election next year).

What I do know is that Britain is not America and never will be. If a far right or far left party threatened government then the public would make a concerted effort to stop it happening.

But as I said in my post, write off Badenoch at your peril.

Worcestor i think you are wrong with Farage and the establishment. He'd give his right bollock to be part of the real establishment. The real establishment is people like John Major, Tony Blair, Eddie George, the Rothschilds, the king, and anyone in the privy council........The ones who really make the decisions.

Farage is just an upper-middle-class wannabe who went to a minor public school that told him he was special, did what was expected in the city, wasn't great but he could have been bought much cheaper with a ticket to the outer inner power circle years ago. The real establishment has underestimated him time and time again, and now it too late to invite him in.

How cheap is £5 million? It barely buys you a L1 striker !!!

I love the confidentiality. His bank (whoever he was debanked) informs the National Crime Agency of potential money laundering (try city road then), their job is to investigate, he is not being prosecuted, so I guess it was legitimate; HMRC must be fine with it (blows my mind) it then "falls" into the Guardian's hands on the same day the estranged Prince found out what happens when you are no longer in the club. Things leak........

I think they have underestimated his support. I wouldn't normally consider a person or party like Farage's. But what has happened with the last Tory and Labour government makes me ignore the low-level spivving just to get a change.

Just to add. Burnham will be the first PM never to have been leader of the opposition or held one of the big three head of state jobs. I am still livid (and i voted labour last time)

I think you have possibly fallen into the trap of buying what Farage says. For the record, I don't criticise anyone for that. He comes over as convincing, he has done a good job at persuading people he's just like them - my opinion is he isn't, others take a different view.

His point about being anti-establishment may carry more weight if he didn't bring in people like Jenrick, who literally were the establishment before the last election. It was rather amusing therefore to see Jenrick going on about being against the establishment yesterday.

I genuinely don't believe his support sustains. You can agree or disagree with his politics but that's not the reason I don't think the support lasts. The reason is that people have been given the opportunity in the past to vote for a party that isn't Labour or Conservatives, and every time they don't take that opportunity. One example is 2010, Lib Dems were right up there with the two main parties in terms of support but when it came to the ballot box, people decided it wasn't for them.

Reform need more than just their core support to win the GE. Labour won in 2024 with less than 34% of the vote, a very small percentage for the majority we got. Tories majority in 2019 was 43%, Tory majority in 2015 was 37%. Blair in 1997 and 2001 got over 40%. Even if you look at the hung parliaments of 2010 and 2017, the Tories had 36%+.

Labour and Conservative also have a higher core support. They will just always have that. For example, when I was campaigning for Labour in 2019 people were saying to me "I'll vote for you but you need to change the direction you're going in". We got 32% in that election, despite the party being in a mess. Likewise, Sunak got nearly 24% despite the state they were in.

The point I'm making is Reform have so much more work to do than Labour or Conservative to win an election. They'll probably need at least 32% and that will include winning over many who aren't sure about them, because they naturally do not have the same numbers of core support.

This comes into my thinking when I say I doubt they'll win the next election. Their polling numbers are also on the slide - partly because of them, partly because Badenoch has improved her performance.

They could make me eat my words and win a landslide, but I can only say the situation as I personally currently see it.

When it comes to Andy, I'm sure many will say the same as you. But the fact is he is the most popular Labour politician and people had made it clear they didn't like the current PM. Something had to happen.

I've made no secret that I've worked with Andy on all his mayoral campaigns and have known him and those around him for a while. So I am personally delighted that he'll be coming in. It makes the hard work that people like me put in during his by-election worth it. So with him, it is difficult for me to be unbiased.

Where people are making a big mistake is discounting the Conservatives for the next GE. I disagree with Badenoch on practically everything but I said to people in Labour about a year ago that she would improve her performance, and that nobody should assume they're out of it.

She has now massively improved her performance and I expect them to be right in the fight within six months. People made the mistake of saying Labour wouldn't win after 2019, they shouldn't make the same mistake with the Conservatives.

You think people are voting Reform because they think Farage is just like them, get a grip. I drank in the Windsor in Barry, don’t recall any fekker in a wax jacket and a cravat. The new pseudo left love blowing smoke up each others arses, telling each other her how clever they are and how thick and gullible anyone who disagrees with them is. That’s why Labour has lost the working class vote.

Quite funny to see someone who has five houses and worked in the city claim he's not the establishment.

As for his issues with the media, they helped him on the way up so can't complain that they're now asking him legitimate questions (although harassment of his daughter is wrong, if true).

He can't claim he's the anti-establishment candidate in this by-election when he's running against someone with a bin on their head.

The other parties are not withdrawing because they can't win. Plenty of parties knew they can't win in many constituencies but still run. It's because we all know there will be another by-election shortly afterwards when he's inevitably found guilty.

He has tried to call everyone else's bluff and ended up looking a bit silly.

I don't know if he'll be Reform leader by the next election. But I will happily make a bet for charity that he won't be PM after the next election.

Not a fan of Badenoch but I thought she put it best when she said he was just having a "hissy fit".

“Harassment” of his daughter is the overstatement of the century.

Sky News went to the house, which was the house that Farage was registered to vote in at the previous election, without a camera and asked to speak to Nigel Farage. Person in house, presumably his daughter, didn’t engage so they left it.

Incidentally I believe (but cannot confirm) that there are photos provided by Farage himself of him at that house standing in the driveway.

If anything it sounds like he’s used his own daughter as a human shield against the press.

FFS, how deluded are you? Everything you state is in factual, it is a mile away from the truth.

His poor daughter has been harassed time and time again. Sky News have changed "their" version of events no less than 4 times.

And for the record, if you were in public life would you be happy for the press to harass your daughters or Granddaughters? Would you? I mean would you be happy about that?

Get a grip man, there are lines in public office that the press should not cross and this is one of them.

Sky News have been pretty clear on their side of the story.

Strange how doorstepping is only an issue now it’s poor victim Nige being held to account when other politicians have had to deal with it for decades.

I believe nothing Sly News says

Worcestor i think you are wrong with Farage and the establishment. He'd give his right bollock to be part of the real establishment. The real establishment is people like John Major, Tony Blair, Eddie George, the Rothschilds, the king, and anyone in the privy council........The ones who really make the decisions.

Farage is just an upper-middle-class wannabe who went to a minor public school that told him he was special, did what was expected in the city, wasn't great but he could have been bought much cheaper with a ticket to the outer inner power circle years ago. The real establishment has underestimated him time and time again, and now it too late to invite him in.

How cheap is £5 million? It barely buys you a L1 striker !!!

I love the confidentiality. His bank (whoever he was debanked) informs the National Crime Agency of potential money laundering (try city road then), their job is to investigate, he is not being prosecuted, so I guess it was legitimate; HMRC must be fine with it (blows my mind) it then "falls" into the Guardian's hands on the same day the estranged Prince found out what happens when you are no longer in the club. Things leak........

I think they have underestimated his support. I wouldn't normally consider a person or party like Farage's. But what has happened with the last Tory and Labour government makes me ignore the low-level spivving just to get a change.

Just to add. Burnham will be the first PM never to have been leader of the opposition or held one of the big three head of state jobs. I am still livid (and i voted labour last time)

I think you have possibly fallen into the trap of buying what Farage says. For the record, I don't criticise anyone for that. He comes over as convincing, he has done a good job at persuading people he's just like them - my opinion is he isn't, others take a different view.

His point about being anti-establishment may carry more weight if he didn't bring in people like Jenrick, who literally were the establishment before the last election. It was rather amusing therefore to see Jenrick going on about being against the establishment yesterday.

I genuinely don't believe his support sustains. You can agree or disagree with his politics but that's not the reason I don't think the support lasts. The reason is that people have been given the opportunity in the past to vote for a party that isn't Labour or Conservatives, and every time they don't take that opportunity. One example is 2010, Lib Dems were right up there with the two main parties in terms of support but when it came to the ballot box, people decided it wasn't for them.

Reform need more than just their core support to win the GE. Labour won in 2024 with less than 34% of the vote, a very small percentage for the majority we got. Tories majority in 2019 was 43%, Tory majority in 2015 was 37%. Blair in 1997 and 2001 got over 40%. Even if you look at the hung parliaments of 2010 and 2017, the Tories had 36%+.

Labour and Conservative also have a higher core support. They will just always have that. For example, when I was campaigning for Labour in 2019 people were saying to me "I'll vote for you but you need to change the direction you're going in". We got 32% in that election, despite the party being in a mess. Likewise, Sunak got nearly 24% despite the state they were in.

The point I'm making is Reform have so much more work to do than Labour or Conservative to win an election. They'll probably need at least 32% and that will include winning over many who aren't sure about them, because they naturally do not have the same numbers of core support.

This comes into my thinking when I say I doubt they'll win the next election. Their polling numbers are also on the slide - partly because of them, partly because Badenoch has improved her performance.

They could make me eat my words and win a landslide, but I can only say the situation as I personally currently see it.

When it comes to Andy, I'm sure many will say the same as you. But the fact is he is the most popular Labour politician and people had made it clear they didn't like the current PM. Something had to happen.

I've made no secret that I've worked with Andy on all his mayoral campaigns and have known him and those around him for a while. So I am personally delighted that he'll be coming in. It makes the hard work that people like me put in during his by-election worth it. So with him, it is difficult for me to be unbiased.

Where people are making a big mistake is discounting the Conservatives for the next GE. I disagree with Badenoch on practically everything but I said to people in Labour about a year ago that she would improve her performance, and that nobody should assume they're out of it.

She has now massively improved her performance and I expect them to be right in the fight within six months. People made the mistake of saying Labour wouldn't win after 2019, they shouldn't make the same mistake with the Conservatives.

You think people are voting Reform because they think Farage is just like them, get a grip. I drank in the Windsor in Barry, don’t recall any fekker in a wax jacket and a cravat. The new pseudo left love blowing smoke up each others arses, telling each other her how clever they are and how thick and gullible anyone who disagrees with them is. That’s why Labour has lost the working class vote.

I did not say that's the reason they vote for him, but it is a reason they connect with him. The two are not necessarily the same thing.

People voted for Blair but they didn't connect with him because he was not a normal person, for example.

I also understand why people vote for him. There are too many people who think "I'm right, our opponents are wrong and that's that." I don't see things that way. We all have a different viewpoint but it doesn't make any of us wrong.

I have offered a charity bet that Farage will not be PM after the next election. What do you say, £50?

Worcestor i think you are wrong with Farage and the establishment. He'd give his right bollock to be part of the real establishment. The real establishment is people like John Major, Tony Blair, Eddie George, the Rothschilds, the king, and anyone in the privy council........The ones who really make the decisions.

Farage is just an upper-middle-class wannabe who went to a minor public school that told him he was special, did what was expected in the city, wasn't great but he could have been bought much cheaper with a ticket to the outer inner power circle years ago. The real establishment has underestimated him time and time again, and now it too late to invite him in.

How cheap is £5 million? It barely buys you a L1 striker !!!

I love the confidentiality. His bank (whoever he was debanked) informs the National Crime Agency of potential money laundering (try city road then), their job is to investigate, he is not being prosecuted, so I guess it was legitimate; HMRC must be fine with it (blows my mind) it then "falls" into the Guardian's hands on the same day the estranged Prince found out what happens when you are no longer in the club. Things leak........

I think they have underestimated his support. I wouldn't normally consider a person or party like Farage's. But what has happened with the last Tory and Labour government makes me ignore the low-level spivving just to get a change.

Just to add. Burnham will be the first PM never to have been leader of the opposition or held one of the big three head of state jobs. I am still livid (and i voted labour last time)

I think you have possibly fallen into the trap of buying what Farage says. For the record, I don't criticise anyone for that. He comes over as convincing, he has done a good job at persuading people he's just like them - my opinion is he isn't, others take a different view.

His point about being anti-establishment may carry more weight if he didn't bring in people like Jenrick, who literally were the establishment before the last election. It was rather amusing therefore to see Jenrick going on about being against the establishment yesterday.

I genuinely don't believe his support sustains. You can agree or disagree with his politics but that's not the reason I don't think the support lasts. The reason is that people have been given the opportunity in the past to vote for a party that isn't Labour or Conservatives, and every time they don't take that opportunity. One example is 2010, Lib Dems were right up there with the two main parties in terms of support but when it came to the ballot box, people decided it wasn't for them.

Reform need more than just their core support to win the GE. Labour won in 2024 with less than 34% of the vote, a very small percentage for the majority we got. Tories majority in 2019 was 43%, Tory majority in 2015 was 37%. Blair in 1997 and 2001 got over 40%. Even if you look at the hung parliaments of 2010 and 2017, the Tories had 36%+.

Labour and Conservative also have a higher core support. They will just always have that. For example, when I was campaigning for Labour in 2019 people were saying to me "I'll vote for you but you need to change the direction you're going in". We got 32% in that election, despite the party being in a mess. Likewise, Sunak got nearly 24% despite the state they were in.

The point I'm making is Reform have so much more work to do than Labour or Conservative to win an election. They'll probably need at least 32% and that will include winning over many who aren't sure about them, because they naturally do not have the same numbers of core support.

This comes into my thinking when I say I doubt they'll win the next election. Their polling numbers are also on the slide - partly because of them, partly because Badenoch has improved her performance.

They could make me eat my words and win a landslide, but I can only say the situation as I personally currently see it.

When it comes to Andy, I'm sure many will say the same as you. But the fact is he is the most popular Labour politician and people had made it clear they didn't like the current PM. Something had to happen.

I've made no secret that I've worked with Andy on all his mayoral campaigns and have known him and those around him for a while. So I am personally delighted that he'll be coming in. It makes the hard work that people like me put in during his by-election worth it. So with him, it is difficult for me to be unbiased.

Where people are making a big mistake is discounting the Conservatives for the next GE. I disagree with Badenoch on practically everything but I said to people in Labour about a year ago that she would improve her performance, and that nobody should assume they're out of it.

She has now massively improved her performance and I expect them to be right in the fight within six months. People made the mistake of saying Labour wouldn't win after 2019, they shouldn't make the same mistake with the Conservatives.

You think people are voting Reform because they think Farage is just like them, get a grip. I drank in the Windsor in Barry, don’t recall any fekker in a wax jacket and a cravat. The new pseudo left love blowing smoke up each others arses, telling each other her how clever they are and how thick and gullible anyone who disagrees with them is. That’s why Labour has lost the working class vote.

I did not say that's the reason they vote for him, but it is a reason they connect with him. The two are not necessarily the same thing.

People voted for Blair but they didn't connect with him because he was not a normal person, for example.

I also understand why people vote for him. There are too many people who think "I'm right, our opponents are wrong and that's that." I don't see things that way. We all have a different viewpoint but it doesn't make any of us wrong.

I have offered a charity bet that Farage will not be PM after the next election. What do you say, £50?

You have made several excellent posts on this topic Ned and some clear and concise points with which I agree entirely. Farage thought he had come up with a deflecting masterstroke. However, the other parties have denied him the opportunity to prove he can beat the "Establishment" and claim the people are behind him - no matter what he may or may not have done - by him winning this sham by election in a constituency which let's be honest, is probably Reform's No 1 safest seat at the moment!! Reform support is falling daily - we know he knows it, he also knows he is in deep trouble and there will be another by election in the Autumn after his misdemeanors are laid bare and people can see what a grifter he really is and then other parties will stand against him if he hasn't disappeared in the interim!! The introduction of the so-called harrassment of his daughter to the process is laughable - did you see the videos!!? I've been more harrassed by my local Dominos Pizza delivery man!! Its all about deflecting the heat and playing the victim. It hasn't worked - no one has taken the bait - not even Rupert Lowe and Restore!! We can now just sit back and enjoy the contest - the Count of Dodgy Crypto (now representing the establishment) versus Count Binface (representing the people). If Farage pisses the contest what will that prove - perhaps no one took Binface seriously? However, Binface - aka the people's candidate - doesn't even need to win - just improve considerably on the 308 vote best figure he has ever previously achieved at a by election and we can all draw the conclusion that Farage has well and truly shot himself in the foot - unless of course Farage tries to salvage a little bit of dignity and calls the whole chardade off!!

Farage will win, the parliamentary investigation restarts. If he's suspended as an M. P they'll be another by election
It's a stunt

Worcestor i think you are wrong with Farage and the establishment. He'd give his right bollock to be part of the real establishment. The real establishment is people like John Major, Tony Blair, Eddie George, the Rothschilds, the king, and anyone in the privy council........The ones who really make the decisions.

Farage is just an upper-middle-class wannabe who went to a minor public school that told him he was special, did what was expected in the city, wasn't great but he could have been bought much cheaper with a ticket to the outer inner power circle years ago. The real establishment has underestimated him time and time again, and now it too late to invite him in.

How cheap is £5 million? It barely buys you a L1 striker !!!

I love the confidentiality. His bank (whoever he was debanked) informs the National Crime Agency of potential money laundering (try city road then), their job is to investigate, he is not being prosecuted, so I guess it was legitimate; HMRC must be fine with it (blows my mind) it then "falls" into the Guardian's hands on the same day the estranged Prince found out what happens when you are no longer in the club. Things leak........

I think they have underestimated his support. I wouldn't normally consider a person or party like Farage's. But what has happened with the last Tory and Labour government makes me ignore the low-level spivving just to get a change.

Just to add. Burnham will be the first PM never to have been leader of the opposition or held one of the big three head of state jobs. I am still livid (and i voted labour last time)

I think you have possibly fallen into the trap of buying what Farage says. For the record, I don't criticise anyone for that. He comes over as convincing, he has done a good job at persuading people he's just like them - my opinion is he isn't, others take a different view.

His point about being anti-establishment may carry more weight if he didn't bring in people like Jenrick, who literally were the establishment before the last election. It was rather amusing therefore to see Jenrick going on about being against the establishment yesterday.

I genuinely don't believe his support sustains. You can agree or disagree with his politics but that's not the reason I don't think the support lasts. The reason is that people have been given the opportunity in the past to vote for a party that isn't Labour or Conservatives, and every time they don't take that opportunity. One example is 2010, Lib Dems were right up there with the two main parties in terms of support but when it came to the ballot box, people decided it wasn't for them.

Reform need more than just their core support to win the GE. Labour won in 2024 with less than 34% of the vote, a very small percentage for the majority we got. Tories majority in 2019 was 43%, Tory majority in 2015 was 37%. Blair in 1997 and 2001 got over 40%. Even if you look at the hung parliaments of 2010 and 2017, the Tories had 36%+.

Labour and Conservative also have a higher core support. They will just always have that. For example, when I was campaigning for Labour in 2019 people were saying to me "I'll vote for you but you need to change the direction you're going in". We got 32% in that election, despite the party being in a mess. Likewise, Sunak got nearly 24% despite the state they were in.

The point I'm making is Reform have so much more work to do than Labour or Conservative to win an election. They'll probably need at least 32% and that will include winning over many who aren't sure about them, because they naturally do not have the same numbers of core support.

This comes into my thinking when I say I doubt they'll win the next election. Their polling numbers are also on the slide - partly because of them, partly because Badenoch has improved her performance.

They could make me eat my words and win a landslide, but I can only say the situation as I personally currently see it.

When it comes to Andy, I'm sure many will say the same as you. But the fact is he is the most popular Labour politician and people had made it clear they didn't like the current PM. Something had to happen.

I've made no secret that I've worked with Andy on all his mayoral campaigns and have known him and those around him for a while. So I am personally delighted that he'll be coming in. It makes the hard work that people like me put in during his by-election worth it. So with him, it is difficult for me to be unbiased.

Where people are making a big mistake is discounting the Conservatives for the next GE. I disagree with Badenoch on practically everything but I said to people in Labour about a year ago that she would improve her performance, and that nobody should assume they're out of it.

She has now massively improved her performance and I expect them to be right in the fight within six months. People made the mistake of saying Labour wouldn't win after 2019, they shouldn't make the same mistake with the Conservatives.

You think people are voting Reform because they think Farage is just like them, get a grip. I drank in the Windsor in Barry, don’t recall any fekker in a wax jacket and a cravat. The new pseudo left love blowing smoke up each others arses, telling each other her how clever they are and how thick and gullible anyone who disagrees with them is. That’s why Labour has lost the working class vote.

I did not say that's the reason they vote for him, but it is a reason they connect with him. The two are not necessarily the same thing.

People voted for Blair but they didn't connect with him because he was not a normal person, for example.

I also understand why people vote for him. There are too many people who think "I'm right, our opponents are wrong and that's that." I don't see things that way. We all have a different viewpoint but it doesn't make any of us wrong.

I have offered a charity bet that Farage will not be PM after the next election. What do you say, £50?

You have made several excellent posts on this topic Ned and some clear and concise points with which I agree entirely. Farage thought he had come up with a deflecting masterstroke. However, the other parties have denied him the opportunity to prove he can beat the "Establishment" and claim the people are behind him - no matter what he may or may not have done - by him winning this sham by election in a constituency which let's be honest, is probably Reform's No 1 safest seat at the moment!! Reform support is falling daily - we know he knows it, he also knows he is in deep trouble and there will be another by election in the Autumn after his misdemeanors are laid bare and people can see what a grifter he really is and then other parties will stand against him if he hasn't disappeared in the interim!! The introduction of the so-called harrassment of his daughter to the process is laughable - did you see the videos!!? I've been more harrassed by my local Dominos Pizza delivery man!! Its all about deflecting the heat and playing the victim. It hasn't worked - no one has taken the bait - not even Rupert Lowe and Restore!! We can now just sit back and enjoy the contest - the Count of Dodgy Crypto (now representing the establishment) versus Count Binface (representing the people). If Farage pisses the contest what will that prove - perhaps no one took Binface seriously? However, Binface - aka the people's candidate - doesn't even need to win - just improve considerably on the 308 vote best figure he has ever previously achieved at a by election and we can all draw the conclusion that Farage has well and truly shot himself in the foot - unless of course Farage tries to salvage a little bit of dignity and calls the whole chardade off!!

Well said

Worcestor i think you are wrong with Farage and the establishment. He'd give his right bollock to be part of the real establishment. The real establishment is people like John Major, Tony Blair, Eddie George, the Rothschilds, the king, and anyone in the privy council........The ones who really make the decisions.

Farage is just an upper-middle-class wannabe who went to a minor public school that told him he was special, did what was expected in the city, wasn't great but he could have been bought much cheaper with a ticket to the outer inner power circle years ago. The real establishment has underestimated him time and time again, and now it too late to invite him in.

How cheap is £5 million? It barely buys you a L1 striker !!!

I love the confidentiality. His bank (whoever he was debanked) informs the National Crime Agency of potential money laundering (try city road then), their job is to investigate, he is not being prosecuted, so I guess it was legitimate; HMRC must be fine with it (blows my mind) it then "falls" into the Guardian's hands on the same day the estranged Prince found out what happens when you are no longer in the club. Things leak........

I think they have underestimated his support. I wouldn't normally consider a person or party like Farage's. But what has happened with the last Tory and Labour government makes me ignore the low-level spivving just to get a change.

Just to add. Burnham will be the first PM never to have been leader of the opposition or held one of the big three head of state jobs. I am still livid (and i voted labour last time)

I think you have possibly fallen into the trap of buying what Farage says. For the record, I don't criticise anyone for that. He comes over as convincing, he has done a good job at persuading people he's just like them - my opinion is he isn't, others take a different view.

His point about being anti-establishment may carry more weight if he didn't bring in people like Jenrick, who literally were the establishment before the last election. It was rather amusing therefore to see Jenrick going on about being against the establishment yesterday.

I genuinely don't believe his support sustains. You can agree or disagree with his politics but that's not the reason I don't think the support lasts. The reason is that people have been given the opportunity in the past to vote for a party that isn't Labour or Conservatives, and every time they don't take that opportunity. One example is 2010, Lib Dems were right up there with the two main parties in terms of support but when it came to the ballot box, people decided it wasn't for them.

Reform need more than just their core support to win the GE. Labour won in 2024 with less than 34% of the vote, a very small percentage for the majority we got. Tories majority in 2019 was 43%, Tory majority in 2015 was 37%. Blair in 1997 and 2001 got over 40%. Even if you look at the hung parliaments of 2010 and 2017, the Tories had 36%+.

Labour and Conservative also have a higher core support. They will just always have that. For example, when I was campaigning for Labour in 2019 people were saying to me "I'll vote for you but you need to change the direction you're going in". We got 32% in that election, despite the party being in a mess. Likewise, Sunak got nearly 24% despite the state they were in.

The point I'm making is Reform have so much more work to do than Labour or Conservative to win an election. They'll probably need at least 32% and that will include winning over many who aren't sure about them, because they naturally do not have the same numbers of core support.

This comes into my thinking when I say I doubt they'll win the next election. Their polling numbers are also on the slide - partly because of them, partly because Badenoch has improved her performance.

They could make me eat my words and win a landslide, but I can only say the situation as I personally currently see it.

When it comes to Andy, I'm sure many will say the same as you. But the fact is he is the most popular Labour politician and people had made it clear they didn't like the current PM. Something had to happen.

I've made no secret that I've worked with Andy on all his mayoral campaigns and have known him and those around him for a while. So I am personally delighted that he'll be coming in. It makes the hard work that people like me put in during his by-election worth it. So with him, it is difficult for me to be unbiased.

Where people are making a big mistake is discounting the Conservatives for the next GE. I disagree with Badenoch on practically everything but I said to people in Labour about a year ago that she would improve her performance, and that nobody should assume they're out of it.

She has now massively improved her performance and I expect them to be right in the fight within six months. People made the mistake of saying Labour wouldn't win after 2019, they shouldn't make the same mistake with the Conservatives.

You think people are voting Reform because they think Farage is just like them, get a grip. I drank in the Windsor in Barry, don’t recall any fekker in a wax jacket and a cravat. The new pseudo left love blowing smoke up each others arses, telling each other her how clever they are and how thick and gullible anyone who disagrees with them is. That’s why Labour has lost the working class vote.

I did not say that's the reason they vote for him, but it is a reason they connect with him. The two are not necessarily the same thing.

People voted for Blair but they didn't connect with him because he was not a normal person, for example.

I also understand why people vote for him. There are too many people who think "I'm right, our opponents are wrong and that's that." I don't see things that way. We all have a different viewpoint but it doesn't make any of us wrong.

I have offered a charity bet that Farage will not be PM after the next election. What do you say, £50?

It’s not a bet I’m up for mate, because I agree he won’t become PM
Personally I’d prefer Farage to step aside as Reform Leader. I like Malcolm Offord, he had the same start in life I had, in an Inverclyde tenement. He’s done very well for himself, so he’d face the politics of envy but who would you rather have running the country, a successful businessman, or an ideologue, who’s done PPE in Uni and never had a real job in their life, see Labours front bench for examples. In truth we both want the same thing, a prosperous country with a fair functioning society, we just come at it from different angles. Sadly I think instead we’re heading for serious civil disorder and blood on the streets.
I could weep for what type of country my grandkids will inherit.
Roll on football season, we need the distraction.

Always said the establishment will go after him.. just the start

The problem Farage and Reform have now is that the other parties have tried to hold the moral high ground and stand down from putting a candidate up with Nigel.

This now leaves Farage up against Lord McBin Face (or whatever he is called). I have no doubt some sort of campaign will get started where voters of Labour, Lib Dems and the Greens will vote for McBin. I don't think it will happen, but it would be hilarious if he got voted in and was sat in Parliament in his cos-play outfit.

Ultimately, voting and democracy in my opinion is a bit of a scam. An illusion of freedom of choice. However for what it's worth, it will give me a few chuckles to see this circus play out.