Re: ' IN A NUTSHELL BREXIT DEAL '
Mon Dec 28, 2020 1:02 pm
litoblues wrote:if the usa strikes a free deal with the uk. does that mean they have free access to the Eu via uk?
Basically yes as long as the products meet entry standards
Re: ' IN A NUTSHELL BREXIT DEAL '
Mon Dec 28, 2020 1:23 pm
wez1927 wrote:litoblues wrote:if the usa strikes a free deal with the uk. does that mean they have free access to the Eu via uk?
Basically yes as long as the products meet entry standards
Not so Wez, if we do a deal with the USA that deal is only for us, if the USA wants to deal with the EU then they will have to negotiate with the EU for one!
Re: ' IN A NUTSHELL BREXIT DEAL '
Mon Dec 28, 2020 2:53 pm
It's an informative and easy to read post but I can't help but think this has been written by someone in favour of Brexit with the intent, whether consciously or not, to paint the deal in a better light than it is in actuality. I'm assuming this came from an online article so a source would be nice.
I struggle to see how some of the "wins" can be claimed as such.
For example, under TRADE the OP has claimed 2 wins for the UK and one win for the EU but his wins are based on the repercussions from a No Deal scenario. Compared to the current scenario surely a draw or EU win is more appropriate.
Another example:
"CRIME, SECURITY AND EXTRADITION
Cooperation on investigation into terrorism and serious crime
Britain will no longer have real-time access to DNA, fingerprint and airline passenger information, but will receive them quickly
Britain loses membership of Europol and Eurojust, but the UK will cooperate with them
Close cooperation on extraditions but with further safeguards beyond the European Arrest Warrant
VERDICT: UK win. Remainers had often said it would be impossible to reach such a deal without submitting to the European Court of Justice. That has been achieved, and the UK also retains the right to deport foreign criminals"
So the UK loses access to DNA, fingerprint and airline passenger information but will receive it quickly. Why is requesting information better than already having access to it?
How is losing memberships of Europol and Eurojust a positive outcome?
If someone with links to drug activity, terrorism, or criminal activities in general enters the UK we have now lost the instantaneous access to their data.
Further down in the post it's highlighted how this is a negative for the UK:
"Will we know if offenders come to UK from the EU?
Yes ... to an extent. As expected, UK police and intelligence agencies are to be cut off from the EU's most sensitive real-time crime databases. But security services will still have access to crucial air passenger data, criminal record information, and DNA, fingerprint and vehicle registration data through the PNR and Prüm databases.
Can we catch criminals who flee Britain?
Not as easily. We will no longer be part of the European Arrest Warrant system, which allows swift extradition of criminals between EU countries. It is not clear what will replace this. Our police will, however, still be able to extradite criminals via Interpol and fall back on the 1957 European Convention on Extradition.
Another point claiming a UK victory:
"BREAK CLAUSE
After four years, the whole deal could be terminated if either the UK or the EU believes it is not working
The entire trade deal can also be reopened if the two sides cannot resolve a serious dispute
Individual chapters of the trade agreement can also be reopened if there are disputes
VERDICT: UK win. This ensures British sovereignty is maintained if it is unhappy with the way the agreement works out. It ensures the UK will not be subject to unilateral sanctions from Brussels."
Surely this is a draw rather than a win? Both the EU and UK have the same rights to terminate the deal if either side has complaints. The UK doesn't have an advantage or better outcome than the EU.
And this point about exchange rates is completely wrong:
"Will it cost more to get currency on holiday?
Not if current rates are anything to by. Sterling surged ahead of the deal – a good thing if you're on holiday on the continent as a stronger pound means your money is worth more in euros."
The pound "surged" to £1 = EU1.11 but that's still massively down on where the pound was before the Brexit referendum. On June 24th 2016, the day after the result was announced the value of the pound was £1 = EU1.23, at the start on 2016 in January the rate was £1 = EU1.33. Since the 24th of June the pound has never had a rate higher than £1 = EU1.20.
The pound has actually lost significant value compared to some of the most popular currencies.
Jan 2016:
£1 = 1.33 Euros
£1 = 2.09 AUS Dollar
£1 = 1.46 US Dollar
£1 = 2.06 CAN Dollar
Dec 2020:
£1 = 1.11 Euros
£1 = 1.78 AUS Dollar
£1 = 1.34 US Dollar
£1 = 1.73 CAN Dollar
The Erasmus scheme.
In January 2020 Johnson said "there is no threat to the Erasmus scheme, and we will continue to participate in it" . Add that to the growing pile of U-turns. As for comments about it being too expensive the scheme actually had a net positive on the UK economy. It cost around £180m each year but actually brought in over £420m to the economy from EU students paying rent, shopping, eating out, moving to work/live here in later life, etc, etc. This new Turing scheme only funds UK students going overseas costing over £100m and will bring almost nothing to the UK economy.
I'm sure there are more points in this article that can be picked apart but from what I'm seeing most of the points talking about wins and losses are decided in a comparison to a No Deal Brexit. I would like to see how some of these victories change when compared to what we had as a member of the EU.
I struggle to see how some of the "wins" can be claimed as such.
For example, under TRADE the OP has claimed 2 wins for the UK and one win for the EU but his wins are based on the repercussions from a No Deal scenario. Compared to the current scenario surely a draw or EU win is more appropriate.
Another example:
"CRIME, SECURITY AND EXTRADITION
Cooperation on investigation into terrorism and serious crime
Britain will no longer have real-time access to DNA, fingerprint and airline passenger information, but will receive them quickly
Britain loses membership of Europol and Eurojust, but the UK will cooperate with them
Close cooperation on extraditions but with further safeguards beyond the European Arrest Warrant
VERDICT: UK win. Remainers had often said it would be impossible to reach such a deal without submitting to the European Court of Justice. That has been achieved, and the UK also retains the right to deport foreign criminals"
So the UK loses access to DNA, fingerprint and airline passenger information but will receive it quickly. Why is requesting information better than already having access to it?
How is losing memberships of Europol and Eurojust a positive outcome?
If someone with links to drug activity, terrorism, or criminal activities in general enters the UK we have now lost the instantaneous access to their data.
Further down in the post it's highlighted how this is a negative for the UK:
"Will we know if offenders come to UK from the EU?
Yes ... to an extent. As expected, UK police and intelligence agencies are to be cut off from the EU's most sensitive real-time crime databases. But security services will still have access to crucial air passenger data, criminal record information, and DNA, fingerprint and vehicle registration data through the PNR and Prüm databases.
Can we catch criminals who flee Britain?
Not as easily. We will no longer be part of the European Arrest Warrant system, which allows swift extradition of criminals between EU countries. It is not clear what will replace this. Our police will, however, still be able to extradite criminals via Interpol and fall back on the 1957 European Convention on Extradition.
Another point claiming a UK victory:
"BREAK CLAUSE
After four years, the whole deal could be terminated if either the UK or the EU believes it is not working
The entire trade deal can also be reopened if the two sides cannot resolve a serious dispute
Individual chapters of the trade agreement can also be reopened if there are disputes
VERDICT: UK win. This ensures British sovereignty is maintained if it is unhappy with the way the agreement works out. It ensures the UK will not be subject to unilateral sanctions from Brussels."
Surely this is a draw rather than a win? Both the EU and UK have the same rights to terminate the deal if either side has complaints. The UK doesn't have an advantage or better outcome than the EU.
And this point about exchange rates is completely wrong:
"Will it cost more to get currency on holiday?
Not if current rates are anything to by. Sterling surged ahead of the deal – a good thing if you're on holiday on the continent as a stronger pound means your money is worth more in euros."
The pound "surged" to £1 = EU1.11 but that's still massively down on where the pound was before the Brexit referendum. On June 24th 2016, the day after the result was announced the value of the pound was £1 = EU1.23, at the start on 2016 in January the rate was £1 = EU1.33. Since the 24th of June the pound has never had a rate higher than £1 = EU1.20.
The pound has actually lost significant value compared to some of the most popular currencies.
Jan 2016:
£1 = 1.33 Euros
£1 = 2.09 AUS Dollar
£1 = 1.46 US Dollar
£1 = 2.06 CAN Dollar
Dec 2020:
£1 = 1.11 Euros
£1 = 1.78 AUS Dollar
£1 = 1.34 US Dollar
£1 = 1.73 CAN Dollar
The Erasmus scheme.
In January 2020 Johnson said "there is no threat to the Erasmus scheme, and we will continue to participate in it" . Add that to the growing pile of U-turns. As for comments about it being too expensive the scheme actually had a net positive on the UK economy. It cost around £180m each year but actually brought in over £420m to the economy from EU students paying rent, shopping, eating out, moving to work/live here in later life, etc, etc. This new Turing scheme only funds UK students going overseas costing over £100m and will bring almost nothing to the UK economy.
I'm sure there are more points in this article that can be picked apart but from what I'm seeing most of the points talking about wins and losses are decided in a comparison to a No Deal Brexit. I would like to see how some of these victories change when compared to what we had as a member of the EU.
Re: ' IN A NUTSHELL BREXIT DEAL '
Mon Dec 28, 2020 3:22 pm
WestCoastBlue wrote:It's an informative and easy to read post but I can't help but think this has been written by someone in favour of Brexit with the intent, whether consciously or not, to paint the deal in a better light than it is in actuality. I'm assuming this came from an online article so a source would be nice.
Is it an overly positive assessment?
Looks pretty positive to me and even as a Brexiteer, I can see the pluses of the deal
It won't be prefect; but then I look back at what Theresa May was literally going to give away...
Re: ' IN A NUTSHELL BREXIT DEAL '
Mon Dec 28, 2020 4:48 pm
Sven wrote:WestCoastBlue wrote:It's an informative and easy to read post but I can't help but think this has been written by someone in favour of Brexit with the intent, whether consciously or not, to paint the deal in a better light than it is in actuality. I'm assuming this came from an online article so a source would be nice.
Is it an overly positive assessment?
Looks pretty positive to me and even as a Brexiteer, I can see the pluses of the deal
It won't be prefect; but then I look back at what Theresa May was literally going to give away...
As I've highlighted there are several points being awarded wins when it's hard to see how they can be considered as such. Losing access to criminal databases for example. As far as I'm aware there aren't any negatives to retaining that access and I can't remember a single time that us having this access was used as a point for leaving the EU. As the article says later on it will now be harder and take longer to catch criminals who's information is a part of these databases. Yet this is considered a win for the UK by the author.
Another point is the whole "Your holidays won't be any more expensive" because of the pound "surging" after a deal was announced. This is despite the fact that the value of the pound is already starting to go down again and since 2016 has decreased by 17% compared to the Euro.
I don't disagree there will be benefits to Brexit, I also think there will be disadvantages and after reading this post I still think we're losing more than we're gaining.
Regardless of my thoughts on Brexit I think it's quite clear this is an opinion piece more than factual observations and some of the opinions are biased towards thinking the deal is better than it is.