SUNDAY 05th SEPTEMBER UPDATE

Brilliant post Carl....and appreciated.

I think you've hit the nail on the head where it refers to the Malaysians trying to get promotion not so much 'on the cheap' but certainly by means of spending as little as possible on transfers, as this would put the club in a strange position come the glorious day....always assuming it were to happen. At that point, the club would be able to off-load the players they no longer want and will find it easier to keep the players they still want....

This may appear a little simplistic but I have a feeling the Malaysians were as disappointed as the rest of us when we fell at the last hurdle in 2009/10 because they would have had an immediate (and massive) return on their investment. That it didn't quite happen has made them see that with a few better players we have the nucleus of a promotion team and the best way to get the quality we need is to borrow. We certainly couldnt afford any of them with our current debts unresolved in some areas.

I am, however, confident for the future and believe that the future of our club will be secure when we reach the Premiership.

Thank again, mate....and keep up the good work

Thank you Sven, I am glad that others are thinking the same

With TG and Co my optinion is that with so many creditors it would be foolish to go out and spend transfer fees on anyone and I agree. To have signed Oli, Koumas, Keogh, Bellamy would have cost potentially close to 15m and all those players would have wanted the wages matched from there current clubs on current terms and on new deals for at least a couple of season - thats we can all agree is impossible. IMO the club in its current financial position should not be signing players on big wages and long contracts like them so a loan is ideal.


So they have backed DJ in the loan market and brought in well and we now have a strong squad. If we dont go up the loans go back and we go back to having a small squad but a low wage bill again which I think is part of the strategy. They can then re-evaluate the financial position on season to season.
I think players being out of contract are unfortunate and more down to the RIddler not signing them up earlier because we had no money. I think the club had it right bringing in players before sorting the new contract and im sure they are now looking to extend the players contracts. Also lets remember the RIddler did all the previous contracts so maybe they are already on to much and we dont want to pay anymore?

I think someone mentioned that TG and co could have turned some of Isaacs debt into shares recently but didnt? (any info carl?)
If true I think that shows they plan on a full take over once other debts are sorted but are taking the time they need to put themselves in a stronger position.
Im not concerned at all and pleased that even if TG and co pulled out that all the high earners on loan at the club would be gone.

Luke I have tried to find out about the Isaacs deal this weekend but to no joy at the moment but I should know more on it tomorrow.

Cheers carl.
If as suggested they didnt turn the debt into shares (if they ever could) then that may tell its own story.
Also I think Since69 said they could turn 2.5m of PMG's debt into shares but havent?

This makes me think they want the shares for themselves.

In fairness though it has seemed like shit or bust for the past 3 seasons, never more so than last season. At worst next season we start in the championship with a small wage bill and squad and with DJ (who is well paid) off the bill and we start again I feel good either way at the moment as long as PMG or Langstone dont hit up a big fuss this year.

i like to think the malaysians will spend money if we go up,, are the players out of contract, going to be good enough for our team in the prem?????as buisnessmen they may, just may take a loss, in the prem for the first season,,, by that i mean ,they might give dj 50million for players , or whatever,,,,,,, if there in it for the long haul i think this could be there plan, i just dont think, they will even think about us coming back down?? there my views, but i dont live in the real world

I think they have looked Blackpool and Leicester and many other clubs last year and worked out it is the best strategy, borrow a better calibre of player than we can afford or we would want to commit too. If we get promoted we can then sign better quality players than some of the loans. A contract can tie you down, some could go and others could come in to build a team capable of staying up.

Looks like the perfect strategy to me, I don't know why it took us so long to work it out?, Just remembered Ridsdale was in charge wasn't he !!!

Thanx Carl great stuff IMO I think the malaysians will take us forward and will see the job thru

Carl, seems to me like a one off £90m gamble.Great if it comes off but we are in serious trouble if we don't go up.

Surely if TG and Co. were in it for the long haul they would be looking to take over the club and not sit on a 30 odd percent stake.

It does seem like an odd strategy and that is why I am asking for peoples opinions to see if everyone is happy and convinced we are safe or are there doubts and fears.

Carl, I think we are far from safe although at the time we had no other option other than TG and Co. Don't get me wrong I am thankfull that they are on board as we could have gone out of business. I thought it was strange when they announced a holding of 30 odd percent.

They also seem to be paying the lions share of wages/debt with PMG paying nothing. Again I don't understand how they seem to be liable to pay everything with such a small holding.

I think our first concern must be what is going to happen with the Langston/PMG debt which is due shortly.

On the playing side not getting promoted would leave us very thin on the ground. We seem to have used the loan system very well this year and the Bellamy signing is one of the biggest coups in my lifetime. Is this Dave Jones last chance to get us out of this division? Surely if we don't go up we may start to go backwards

On paper I think we are one of (If not the) best side in the division and would hope/pray we go up this year. If we do all this type of talk should vanish

What are the chances of the players resigning their contracts?

I have heard from a reliable source that Whitts is keen to stay. I think Bothroyd may hold out. I think Darcy and Matthews will sign, Mcphail im unsure wheather the club are going to offer him a new contract, all depends on wheather we go up. Im also unsure on burke, i think he may hold out to see if we go up...

I thought I read on earlier post on here, that there is other investors in the wings are there?


Being a city fan there will be always doubts and fears in my mind, I think it comes with the territory. Trust and honesty, from and too TG and VT is all we have. i do not think that Bellamy would have come to the club unless he had assurances that they are fully on board. So lets trust and believe and We will be there, and with my little pick and shovel I'll be there (they are a bit rusty though)

What is your opinion on it Carl?

With TG and Co my optinion is that with so many creditors it would be foolish to go out and spend transfer fees on anyone and I agree. To have signed Oli, Koumas, Keogh, Bellamy would have cost potentially close to 15m and all those players would have wanted the wages matched from there current clubs on current terms and on new deals for at least a couple of season - thats we can all agree is impossible. IMO the club in its current financial position should not be signing players on big wages and long contracts like them so a loan is ideal.


So they have backed DJ in the loan market and brought in well and we now have a strong squad. If we dont go up the loans go back and we go back to having a small squad but a low wage bill again which I think is part of the strategy. They can then re-evaluate the financial position on season to season.
I think players being out of contract are unfortunate and more down to the RIddler not signing them up earlier because we had no money. I think the club had it right bringing in players before sorting the new contract and im sure they are now looking to extend the players contracts. Also lets remember the RIddler did all the previous contracts so maybe they are already on to much and we dont want to pay anymore?

I think someone mentioned that TG and co could have turned some of Isaacs debt into shares recently but didnt? (any info carl?)
If true I think that shows they plan on a full take over once other debts are sorted but are taking the time they need to put themselves in a stronger position.
Im not concerned at all and pleased that even if TG and co pulled out that all the high earners on loan at the club would be gone.

Luke I have tried to find out about the Isaacs deal this weekend but to no joy at the moment but I should know more on it tomorrow.

was just about to ask

It would give us a good clue as to strategy. If they just wanted to cut the debts and keep their shareholding low then they might as well turn Isaacs debt into equity.

On the other hand if they DO convert it to shares then it will cost them that little bit more in shares for a full takeover.

As for now, TG says they are in it for the long haul, and I am happy to go along with that.

Thanks again Carl. Why has PMG refused to sell Premier seats on a match to match basis?

Rick because they believe they will earn more money through the Bellamy signing by selling them as a season seat.

Well how much more have they sold in the last 2 weeks then?

It still not sunk in with me what has happened at our club regarding our squad. There is no doubt in my mind we have a squad that should gain an auto place this season. Should being the operative word. This is a strange feeling but we should be in the premier this time next year.

So what if somehow we dont make the premier, what then? We will lose our loans and perhaps one or two top players. If that happens we are left with a small wage bill and therefore in a good position to go again. We might lose our manager, most likely will as he will be pushed more than anything. There will be a terrific saving on wages there allowing us to bring in a Martinez character with the ideas of new players etc. Believe it or not we are a big club to attract such characters and we will not have to wait too long for whoever it is to arrive if Jones goes. I dont see it being such a catastrophic thing if we dont go up, especially with the Malaysians on board as I also dont think they will pack up shop and go.

We are all in shock with what has happened lately. I think we will be in for a bigger shock when we get to the premier next season. You have been warned.

When the new owners came to the club, Cardiff were desting for the premiership and to recieve the £90 million, This is what i think they were more intrested in and also the brand new multi-million pound stadium! What do malasions know about football?? especially a small club like Cardiff in Wales???? Although they seem to be pleasing everyone at the minute, i dont think this will last, and believe that they are soley hear for the money and not the FOOTBALL!

When the new owners came to the club, Cardiff were desting for the premiership and to recieve the £90 million, This is what i think they were more intrested in and also the brand new multi-million pound stadium! What do malasions know about football?? especially a small club like Cardiff in Wales???? Although they seem to be pleasing everyone at the minute, i dont think this will last, and believe that they are soley hear for the money and not the FOOTBALL!

And how will they make money??? The answer to that is a pleasing one?

Carl,

When TG came on board he had to sell the idea to VT. TG knew about football and Cardiff City because of his son's trial here. IMO TG is in it for the long run but VT is the real money man and I think is the one that is coming up with this strategy and could if we fail to get promotion seriously look at an exit strategy.
I think he will look at where we are in January next year and make decisions on squad strengthening then. If he is not willing to strengthen the squad we will have a better idea as to his intentions.

I suspect that one DAVID JONES (when he went to Malaysia) convinced TG that he
was capable of getting quality players in for nothing AND of avoiding paying big
salaries. He has been proved right. The Malaysians must be absolutely buzzing!
Convincing them to push for the Bellamy deal will also be down to DAVID JONES
he has played a f*cking blinder over the summer.

This has suited the Malaysians down to the ground. Nobody gets rich by throwing
good money after bad. They have been shown a way to be get a highly competitive
football team whilst at the same time being able to concentrate most of their money
on the clubs debt.

Long term? hmmmm... they are spending too much money now to just walk away at the
end of the season. Even if we DONT go up, come next May Cardiff City will be there or
thereabouts as one of the top sides in the Championship,with a brand new stadium, with
sellout crowds, with debts under control and many paid off. This will all have been done
with their money. The boardroom will be a happy place with everyone pulling together, the
feelgood factor will still be here... We would be a pretty attractive proposition for new investors...

They wont walk away

Another thing, we were told that prospective new investors were looking at the club. Are they still around and any idea who they are ?????

thanks carl another great post
i beleive the malaysians are in it for the long haul and that dave jones advised them of what players he required to finally get us to the premier
getting the premiership players that were wanted by dave would not had been possible with transfer fees due to our debts and so loan signings were the only option
I dont think anyone can complain of the fantastic quality of the signings and only for a fraction of their salarys
it obvious that the reason why TG has only taken a third share in the club is that they will not be chased for the full debts and it has meant them coming to agreements with our creditors on behalf of the club and in the meantime loaning the club money which they can then convert to shares when they are ready
i beleive the club will try to sign all the players who are in their last year of their contracts well before the end of the year
i can also see a swop deal with gerrard and olly taking place at the end of the season if not before
here is no doubt the current squad is much stronger than last season and we made the playoffs then so what is there to stop us going one better this season
hopefully all our debts will be sorted out by the end of the year including Langstone and Pmg and then if that happens Tg will im sure will convert his loans into shares for a full takeover
i have been supporting my beloved bluebirds for over 50 years and know that good times can turn sour very quickly but i am confident that with our current squad we will go up automatically this year
i hope everybody continues to support TG and especially dave jones as we all have to beleive that this is our year when we celebrate promotion to the premier
and Carl keep those great posts going

When the new owners came to the club, Cardiff were desting for the premiership and to recieve the £90 million, This is what i think they were more intrested in and also the brand new multi-million pound stadium! What do malasions know about football?? especially a small club like Cardiff in Wales???? Although they seem to be pleasing everyone at the minute, i dont think this will last, and believe that they are soley hear for the money and not the FOOTBALL!

And how will they make money??? The answer to that is a pleasing one?

This is an exert from a Malysian Forum, it may answer your question:

"Ozhero: Just think about this for one second. Vincent Tan and his group's recent purchase of a controlling stake in Cardiff City (by the way, Cardiff City is in the playoff for the Premier League) ... and all of a sudden, legalised sports betting. It's all about securing funding for the next GE.

Just imagine how much betting is done on Premier League matches. The potential upside to a Cardiff City promotion is tremendous. It's not going to be taps that we are going to open, it's going to be floodgates."

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/132343

Another great post Carl

how long do pmg get a say on how prem seats are sold ? surely we/they are missing on alot of sales here

2013.

ok cheers is that when we no longer owe them money (assuming we keep up to date with payments )

Great post as normal carl!!!
I for one am a malaysian fan. your article has made me think deeply about their plans!!
i agree with many on here so far and disagree with others.
my interpretation which is all it is
is that the malaysians now having settled in after the inital £6m investment which was all paid out in days lol have seen the full extent of:-

the current level of debt at the club (both hidden debt and stuff they knew about)
The quality of current playing staff
The backing they have from other directors ( little by the seems)

This then lead them to decide that the only way to meet the liabilities whilst keeping decent level of playing staff capable of promotion/ playoffs thus continuing the decent run of the club in last few years was to loan players, this means a few things:-

1) the playing staff have improved as a result (my opinion)
2) we have no liabilties for thes players( transfer payments) only wages bulk of which paid by parent clubs which makesd perfect and good business sense yes i agree assets are lowered but by doing this the malaysians are showing that aying no transfer fees just wages means other creditors won't come callling saying you've just spent £10m in tranfser window so why haven't you paid us £2m, this would entitle them to put in serious winidng up orders!! Look what motherwell chairmen threatened over unpaid transfer fees!!! LOANS MAKE PERFECT SENSE GUYS!! if the player has bad season we aint tied to them either perfect sense!! PLUS WE CAN ALWAYS LOAN THESE PLAYERS BACK CAN'T WE??

By paying no transfer fees just wages the club may be able to maintain regular debt payments and the malaysians can deal with smaller creditors which i believe carl has mentioned in his previous posts that they are slowly dealing with debts the club owes..
AND to deal with a point raised by another post the malaysians won't take over fully at present even though they are p[aying everything as i belive a clause in langston debt says any proposed takeover would mean they recieve early payment of £24m owed to them!!
so the malaysians are technically loaning the club money at present but i'm sure when langston are dealt with( not fully settled but as sam hamann is clearly happy with way malaysians are dealing with club so far) my thoughts are they have had meetings with SH to sort a new financing deal out for the debt owed to langston, this would mean they could then convert loans into shares without being forced to pay £15m to langston immediately. plus sam is happy with these guys doing ti slowly if he's honest as ADMIN would mean he would get f**k ALL back for his £24m loan. They would by my reckoning own over 50% of the club now if the loans were converted to shares meaning they would have to put in a full takeover bid of the club.
I am so far a malaysian backer from an accounting perspective (my proffession) the club is skint, TOTALLY SKINT. liabillities much greater than assets ie we could be liquidated, but the way they are trying to sort things makes total sense, less moeny paid out on transfer fees as we have virtually no revenue streams at present, the bellamy deal made us some nice short term cash and providing we remain close to promotion all season we will contiue to sell out week in week out, BELLAMY deal makes perfect sense as some money can be used to pay wages etc
I like these guys they are running a club with no money far better than SAM HAMANN or PR PETER RIDSDALE ever did
my only worry is they are securing loans against assets ie stadium, therefore if it does blow up the stadium would be sold and they'd get there money back, businessmen!!! clever businessmen but my gut tells me they are here to stay and would like people say love promotion as they'd be able to pay debts off and get a club worth more than £50m on the cheap, good investemtn if it pays off and not a bad investment if it doesn't!!

great post as always.
Just enjoy the ride folks this is cardiff city the best roller coaster ride in the world.
why do some people still want jones out it amazes me, 3 wembley apperances, best manager at this level by far,
i once slated dj but not anymore, i think he is the son of jimmy scholar lol

i dont really have any idea about whats going on but if im honest. i think what the malaysians are doing is paying off the small creditors . so come january time. if we are looking like a promo team still. they will say hey we paid off most the debts, we put in more money . so heres a offer. you either take it or leave it, for your shares. they are smart at what they do. if they have more controll of the club then. i think in janaury there will be money int he club for DJ to go out and see whos available to purchase or nail down on perminant deal. JK is unwanted at wigan, so is olofinajan. so what i think they are doing with the loans is if we have them for 1 year. their value goes down because its a year less on their contract so we can then look to purchase for a heck of a lot cheaper than what we would.

but hey thats my opinion guys. im only young so bite my head off !!!

Hi Carl,

The points you raise are quite natural ones to bring forward; they are ones anyone would think about. Let me answer them.

DJ has this year used the loan system for one very good reason. Stoke for many seasons, Blackpool and others have used the system, which is perfectly legitimate to do so, and to very good effect (promotion being gained) in the past. The negative stuff in the English media is purely born of jealousy and racism. There wasn't a bleat of condemnation when English clubs used the system in the past.

Each of the loan signings have been brought in and in each case and agreement has been reached foir the players permanent transfers to City next summer. DJ said this on a recent iPlayer interview. Well may you ask why have the Club favoured the loan system. I believe the answer to that is very simple. This year the Malaysians have decided to pay off as much of the historical debt as possible. This and splashing £2m-£4m transfer fees about would simply not have been possible.

The real problem in all this are not the Malaysians but those very much nearer home. The rugby junta (PMG, Paul Guy and Mike Hall) have sucked the Club dry and are not sharing any of the financial burden. The Malaysians took a large minority shareholding in City believing the the existing Directors would share the running costs. This they have patently not done nor will they do. I feel for TG and VT in this.

In the background talks are being held with the players whose contracts end next summer. Just because the Malaysians do what needs to be done privately doesn't mean it is not being done. Personally I'd be astounded if any of the players in contract discussions did not sign a new contract. This is their greatest opportunity yet in getting to the PL.

Lastly in all my communications with TG face to face, phone calls, text messages and emails he has been 100% consistent saying that they are in it for the long haul. They have a vested interest too in getting us promoted.

StT.

i think at the end of the day if the Malaysians were only here to get the money they would have cut their losses @ £6m at the end of last season..

like its been said already, weve brought loans in rather than buying because the money is being spent elsewhere i.e. tidying up years and years of mess. if we were buying rather than loaning theres no way we would have been able to attract the type of players weve signed by only using the loan system. credit where its due, they have played a blinder there..

weve always had some drama going on with Cardiff City and its always been part and parcel of being a city fan. the vibe i get is that the Malaysians will sort the mess out themselves and we as fans can concentrate on getting behind the team and helping them fire us into the premiership.

it all seems to good to be true and deep down the majority will be a little bit sceptical but you have to admit this is probably been the best time to be a fan of the club weve loyally followed through the good times and the very, very bad.

i sometimes still think this is all a dream, but its not

BLUEBIRDS!!!

I think we should just sit back and enjoy the ride. I think I have been consistent in stating that tg was here for the long term
There was an initial 5 year plan in place so we are not in a promtion or bust scenario as. Feared
They have dealt with all problems so far so we need to be patient whilst they negotiate contracts
With regards to issacs he will look for the best return for his money so if he has confidence in us reacing the premiership he will convert his loans to shares

Clould the delay with Riggott signing be because we are trying to secure some sort of pay as you play deal, which will protect us in the event of further medical problems ?

Maybe that is where the negotiating lies, DJ thinks he is a great player, but doesent want another Scimeca situation ?

Its been a good topic this Carl - and an important one to bring up.

My feelings are that the majority of replies are very positive of the
Malaysians. That we trust them (no mean feat given past history here)
and that we pretty much all believe they are in it for the long haul.

But we're all a bit like a feller who's had five wives up and leave him.
He's now on his sixth and desperately WANTS to believe that 'this is
the one'. He is giving 100% of commitment to her, he is on cloud nine
and is the happiest man around..... But every now she says or does
things that remind him of the bad times and then he cant help but
think of wives one to five.....

Oh shit!! she makes a cup of tea like wife number two, not a good sign.

Oh shit!! she folds the bed covers down like wife number four.

Oh no!! She doesn't swallow... Is it wife number one all over again
(I know, I know - i need help)

Truth is though - The Malaysians IMO are the real deal - they will take us
where we want to go, to the ecstatic orgasmic heights of the Premiership
and beyond!! FACT

was just about to ask

It would give us a good clue as to strategy. If they just wanted to cut the debts and keep their shareholding low then they might as well turn Isaacs debt into equity.

On the other hand if they DO convert it to shares then it will cost them that little bit more in shares for a full takeover.

As for now, TG says they are in it for the long haul, and I am happy to go along with that.

I believe that the Malaysians won't convert Isaacs and PMG debts into equity at present because of the maths on the share ownership.

As part of the recent deal the Malaysians must keep their shareholding above 30% to maintain a voting majority at boardroom level and also the 30% threshold gives them the right to appoint the Chairman (TG at present)

If the Malaysians converted PMG's & Isaacs debts into equity now they risk lowering their own stake to under 30%. It makes sense that they will not exercise this right now but leave it to a later date when they convert some of their own loans into equity.

Great topic and some very interesting and well thought out responses.

Truth is, none of us know the answer.

For what it's worth my thoughts are these.

Finances.
We obviously owe Langstone a lot of money, closely followed by PMG (Please correct me if I'm wrong), these are our major debts.

If TG invests much more, in terms of hiw shareholding, he could soon reach a stage where he must legally buy the rest of the shares. In that case, I would imagine Langstone would want immediate repayment. TG therefore would have to fork out £20m plus the purchase cost of the rest of the shares, NOW, with no reall guarantee of the £90 pot of gold. Keep things ticking over, get promoted, the CLUB then pays off Langstone next season from SKY money, at which point TG buys the club outright and saves himself £20m.

Loan Players
We can't really go around paying transfer fees with money we don't have, been there done that, didn't work! The loanees are awesome, and DJ has played a blinder in getting them. Plus, would those players WANT to sign for us anyway with no guarantee of promotion?

Players near end of contract.
Are those players good enough for the prem? If so, then we simply offer them new contracts when promotion has been acheived, if not, then we just let them go. If we DON'T go up, then yes, we're taking a risk that a prem (or Scottish!) club doesn't come in for them, then again at least we wouldn't be saddled with a huge wage bill in the championship.

I think they ARE taking a chance on us going up this season, that said, I don't see them walking away if we don't. They would either have to walk away from their investment, want re-paying a la Langstone or sell to a.n.other.

In an ideal world, they'd buy the rest of the shares, pay off Sam, Uncle Tom Cobbly and all and drop another £20m in January on players but these guys seem like businessmen and you don't make the kind of money they have by throwing it around like confetti. Ideally, we want our team 100% funded by ticket, merchandise and TV money and not funded on the "never never".