“ Dr Hilary and How The UK compares “

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I don’t think any country is reporting correct figures I have family in Spain and they tell me that Spain is vastly under reporting See article below from FT This is not a point scoring exercise the figures are horrendous and I think we are in for a much worse situation than Spain in regards of numbers
UK population 67 Million Spain 47 Million Spain has over twice the geographical area of UK We have 94 cities with over 100,000 population Spain Just 50 cities There fore social distancing his so important in UK as much harder Spain has been tough on the lockdown really at a level we should have had in UK instead we get £60 fines and I have read €3000 in Spain We did not learn the lessons from Italy and Spain who were hit before us so had less time to prepare than we did We reacted to slowly unfortunately





Regional data suggest much higher Spanish coronavirus toll

Inclusion of deaths such as untested care home residents increases nationwide total by 42%

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Daniel Dombey in Madrid APRIL 16 2020 29
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A dispute over Spain’s true coronavirus death count intensified after the two worst-hit regions of the country released data indicating that nationwide mortalities could be at least 40 per cent higher than the official total — and possibly much more.

Catalonia and Madrid are now releasing figures that include the deaths of elderly people in care homes who displayed virus symptoms but were not tested. This is in line with changing practices in some countries, including Belgium. At present the official nationwide death toll in Spain, as with many other countries, includes only proven cases of the virus.

According to the new figures, including unproven but probable coronavirus fatalities in places such as care homes would almost double Catalonia’s death toll to more than 7,000 people, while increasing the count in Madrid from 6,724 to more than 11,500.

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If the deaths counted in the two hardest-hit regions were added to Spain’s nationwide total, it would rise by 42 per cent to more than 27,000. If the increase due to the changed criteria were replicated across the country, the nationwide death count would go up by more than 70 per cent.

“It is hard to know what the real figure is, even with good statistics,” said Fernando Simón, the doctor helping lead Spain’s efforts against the pandemic. He added that the central government’s health authorities had “a lot to talk about” with Catalonia over its new figures, which are based on data provided by funeral agencies. 

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It depends how you treat the numbers. These are the death rate figures per 1M of the population, according to Worldometer.

1)Belgium - 633

2) Spain - 510

3) Italy - 453

4) France - 362

5) UK- 319

6) Holland - 266


How reliable these(or any) figures are, I know not. Each country has different densities, lockdowns, treatment capabilities, culture etc etc, so looking at one parameter only is slightly misleading imo.

You can twist them which ever way you want, UK is two wks behind most countries and not included all their care homes etc and should of learned from Italy & Spain.

So do you think UK is not that bad then?

Or is not as bad as the other countries that’s what you’ve virtually said.



I think you have forgotten that the deaths in care homes are sadly going to be beyond horrendous in the UK.

No, the situation is bad. All I’m pointing out is that comparing case rate figures for different countries is not always the best measure. It’s usual in epidemiology to consider a range of factors. The other issue is that countries report by differing mechanisms, which is how Belgium is top.

Forgot to add that these figures are from Worldometer, and presenting as per head of a population is normal as a measure.

Boris Johnson to dash hopes lockdown will be lifted soon

Boris Johnson will on Thursday warn the nation not to expect major changes to the lockdown after it emerged Britain has one of the world’s worst coronavirus death rates.

The Prime Minister will use his first Downing Street press conference since his return to work to explain why social restrictions must largely remain in place.

Data published by the Cabinet Office on Wednesday show Spain and Belgium are the only two countries with a worse per-head death rate than Britain.

The UK's coronavirus death toll has surged by 3,811 to 26,097 now that the Government has started counting people who died in care homes or their own houses - but its tally still falls thousands short of the reality.

Today is the first time the Department of Health has included people dying outside of hospitals in its daily statistics, and the backdated numbers have added thousands to the death toll, which was yesterday 21,678.

But a bigger surge had been expected. The Office for National Statistics reports that more than 4,300 people are known to have died in care homes by April 17, but the Care Quality Commission has recorded more than 4,300 in just a fortnight in England alone.

However, the Government will only include people who have tested positive for the virus in its statistics, despite rationing almost all the testing kits to hospitals for the first month of the outbreak.

The key figure is deaths per head of population, but I have now lost all confidence with any figures coming from this government.

I defended them for a while based on the figures they were publishing. If those figures were wrong then any assumptions made based on them are clearly going to be wrong too.

Despite this it does seem that we are coming out of this, first, peak. Whilst overall death figures have gone up recently because of adding in the deaths outside of hospitals the real trend is now consistently downward.

I do think that in a couple of weeks time we will be able to consider relaxing the restrictions but I have to say, I've
lost all confidence in what this government is telling me and it's ability to make the right decision at the right time. For instance allowing people to fly into this country unchecked yet not allowing residents to travel to down the road or to a second home even if they have been tested

Yes I agree with you and I think the UK needs not come out of a lockdown (partial) and should of had a proper one weeks ago.

Annis you agreed with me on one thread,now again you seem to be taking these figures as true??the figures are not being recorded correctly we both said? A large proportion of the country has been staying in,only going out when needs must,so in fact have been in a proper lockdown,my mum for instance is entering her 8th week of complete lockdown,how much longer can she cope?? She is showing signs of depression already, bless her.let's not forget 125,000 people die in care homes each year,and also,most people in these environments have serious underlying health conditions,hence the need to be in a "care" home,so they will be hit hardest during this period,also I know several people who work in care,and all to date have bemoaned the fact of having no ppe,and no testing!! I have said before (at the very beginning ) that the government were too slow in responding,and nothing has changed my mind on that today! But these continued doom and gloom topics on here,are they really needed? We are all fully aware of what's been happening,we are reminded on a daily basis 24/7 NOBODY knows what the true figures are,or will be,it's all guesswork!! You have quoted a top scientist who advises the government, saying we are not reactive enough,and we will be the worst hit in Europe, yet HE is advising the government? So that means no one in power is listening?? I mean to count deaths that were of another reason ie cancer etc,as deaths from covid,because they were showing symtoms (your words regarding catalonia and madrid ) but not even tested for the virus is misleading at best,and lies at worst.thus clouding the true figure of deaths caused by the virus,mixing them with those who have died "with" covid,but not "of it.we will probably never know the real figures,but to lump them all into one is wrong,and increases people's fears,as to the reasons for it happening? That's up to the individual to make their own mind up,on another topic,it has been reported that over 3,000 fines have been issued in the UK for covid related offences,yet in spain to date? Over 81,000 fines issued for same thing? There are morons everywhere,not just the UK, who think for whatever reason that they don't have to follow advice given.

Of course the figures are not precise from any country and I don’t believe any have been totally including the real figures , maybe the most honest country of their death toll was Italy as they wanted people of the streets immediately and a total lockdown and true figures frightened them in to it.

You can’t blame 95% of the UK public when our GOVT never game a clear precise lockdown and very weak lockdown even the police did not know how to act.

I feel the UK Govt let the old age pensioners down in many care homes and have let a lot of the NHS staff down.


But my over all impression is that the UK could of done a lot better than they have as they were one of the last countries to get the deadly virus and were being given advice from the Countries that made mistakes .

Where am I blaming 95% of UK public? I think we see things differently regards correct method of recording actual cases where covid had been the cause of death,rather than the patient had tested positive, therefore included in the figures,which in my view paints a very sorry picture,as unless it's covid that caused the death directly, it should only be added as a side note,dogfound has posted the figure of 95%of victims are over 60,plus had 2 or more serious underlying conditions, as has been reported for Italy Annis, where 12 %of death certificates state covid 19 as the cause of death, whereas 88% were patients with very serious underlying conditions, thus leaving their immune system comprised,,this in my opinion is the case here,and even spain,where you yourself have said,they are including deaths,without testing the patient in Madrid and catalonia, a worrying trend that I think is occurring here,Hmmmmmmmm they coughed before passing,must be covid then also you copied and pasted the comment from piers morgan,where he quoted 40,000 deaths in care homes,then you slag him off,when the real figure was announced, surely it's better to wait and see,than to paste comments from people who know as much as you or I, why haven't the government employed the t@sser,if he's that knowledgeable on this virus? And all these topics where pictures of covid breaking people in the UK ? You were laying the blame on them,and rightly so,if you go back Annis, I was one of the very first on here,to have a go at boris and the government, for their half arsed response to this,nothing has changed my mind since,but all the topics in the world will not make some members of society obey any lockdown rule,or social distancing! ! But to repeatedly put them on the forum,seems to me that they are aimed at members? As I haven't to date,read one post,where someone says" f*cking the rules,I'm doing what I please " surely it's a pointless mission,as members are following all the guidance as strictly as possible,and one final point,it's only nhs England who are testing residents and carers in all care homes!! Only if showing symptoms in Wales! Why the f@ck? In this together I keep reading,well someone show me how that works please,as to me it doesn't sound,or look like it.

Where the Government went wrong with Care Homes was discharging elderly patients into Care Homes (to free up hospital beds) without testing them for COVID-19 at the start of this crisis.

This led to the virus running rampant through Homes which received any patient who had COVID-19. This is why the death rate in Care Homes is so high.

not sure these outbreaks are from hospital patients being turfed out 5 weeks ago...the incubation period is 5 to 11 days

Where the Government went wrong with Care Homes was discharging elderly patients into Care Homes (to free up hospital beds) without testing them for COVID-19 at the start of this crisis.

This led to the virus running rampant through Homes which received any patient who had COVID-19. This is why the death rate in Care Homes is so high.

not sure these outbreaks are from hospital patients being turfed out 5 weeks ago...the incubation period is 5 to 11 days

Me neither tbh,they are always having to try to clear bed space,especially concerning elderly"bed blockers"(not my term!)as the bed shortages have been going on a lot longer than covid!! The trouble usually is waiting for care package,and possible space at a care home.listening today a&e is much quieter,meaning more bed space,and in wales (the heath) we are running at around 40% occupation of critical care bedspace (intensive care,high dependency. And if the numbers are true, we seem to be levelling out,not out of danger yet,but numbers are encouraging.

Where the Government went wrong with Care Homes was discharging elderly patients into Care Homes (to free up hospital beds) without testing them for COVID-19 at the start of this crisis.

This led to the virus running rampant through Homes which received any patient who had COVID-19. This is why the death rate in Care Homes is so high.

not sure these outbreaks are from hospital patients being turfed out 5 weeks ago...the incubation period is 5 to 11 days

Me neither tbh,they are always having to try to clear bed space,especially concerning elderly"bed blockers"(not my term!)as the bed shortages have been going on a lot longer than covid!! The trouble usually is waiting for care package,and possible space at a care home.listening today a&e is much quieter,meaning more bed space,and in wales (the heath) we are running at around 40% occupation of critical care bedspace (intensive care,high dependency. And if the numbers are true, we seem to be levelling out,not out of danger yet,but numbers are encouraging.

yes I know through personal experience that there has been a reluctance in moving them to care homes ..obviously if its last option it happens... but most of what hospitals consider bed blockers were moved weeks ago...