UPDATED DAILY : UK CORONAVIRUS - UPDATED 29/10/22

I can't believe what I have just watched by the PM of the UK.

He started off with (paraphrase) "we don't know what this new variant Omicron will do"......and then swiftly stated new restrictions.

He dodged questions on the obvious criminal activity on 18th December 2020 at number 10.....and then praised the woman who did it!!!

Do you honestly believe anything that comes out of the PM's mouth?

Yup!

All the evidence suggests the new variant is less dangerous - as you'd expect from mutations (they are generally a good thing, a virus wants to continue spreading not kill off it's host), but yeah let's roll out this One World vaccine passport nonsense. No doubt it's going to spread further than nightclubs etc, and form the basis of God knows what. Whatever it is it won't be for the benefit of any of us

I can't believe what I have just watched by the PM of the UK.

He started off with (paraphrase) "we don't know what this new variant Omicron will do"......and then swiftly stated new restrictions.

He dodged questions on the obvious criminal activity on 18th December 2020 at number 10.....and then praised the woman who did it!!!

Do you honestly believe anything that comes out of the PM's mouth?

Yup!

All the evidence suggests the new variant is less dangerous - as you'd expect from mutations (they are generally a good thing, a virus wants to continue spreading not kill off it's host), but yeah let's roll out this One World vaccine passport nonsense. No doubt it's going to spread further than nightclubs etc, and form the basis of God knows what. Whatever it is it won't be for the benefit of any of us

I wouldn't worry about the flawed passport, if they continue to allow a negative lateral flow test what's the point of it?

The NHS is not under strain yet due to the fact that so many people are vaccinated? If the people who don't want people to have vaccines had their way and the uptake was low the NHS would be overrun, and we would presently be in lockdown?

The reason lots of vaccinated people are in hospital is because virtually everyone who is close to death, or extremely old are vaccinated so that's the main reason the figures are skewed, proportionately in younger fitter people there are much more unvaccinated per 100,000 than vaccinated in hospitals and ICU.

(dropped the full quote just because it makes it easier to read the thread)

I'd argue the NHS is under strain and has been under strain long before COVID (regular winter operations of 92% capacity being a pre-pandemic standard) - this is due to decades of mismanagement by both political parties. COVID hasn't changed that.

However, three stats in that previous post that I think are worth reiterating are:

• 17% of all hospital admissions in Nov 2020 were COVID related - including suspected and confirmed
• A&E admissions in Wales during that period were down 1,000 a day in that period
• By the time the Nightingale hospitals were closed they had seen just 304 patients.

November 2020 was when Alpha had been detected and was becoming the dominant strain. Remember Alpha was a strain more virulent than Delta which replaced it (which in turn is set to be replaced by the less virulent strain Omicron.)

All of these statistics are pre-vaccine.

However, as this thread can be a testament to, statistics are often used like drunks use lamp posts, more for support than illumination.

But what we can unequivocally state that is beyond refute is:

November 2020, with a significantly more virulent strain, and no vaccine - the very uppermost percentage of COVID related hospitalisations was 17%

Now let us consider that in addition to over half a billion pounds being wasted on Nightingale hospitals that were essentially never used we also see know that:

• bed capacity in the NHS was deliberately reduced due to COVID policy during the period (1)
• but even with that reduction as per NHS statement "even in the winter wave – which saw more than 100,000 patients with the virus admitted in a single month – there were beds available across the country."(2)

And just to hammer the point home again this was all before the vaccine.

I would therefore say that it is a reasonable assertion that the impact of COVID at the peak of the Alpha variant on the population in and of itself didn't put any significant additional strain on the NHS.

Now a year later, whether we want to celebrate the overwhelming success of the vaccine for further reducing hospitalisations, whether we want to just believe that it is simply down to the virus mutating to less virulent dominant strains, or whether we want to believe it is a mix of the two is irrelevant - hospitalisations are down year on year and half the level of demand of the previous year when the NHS still had beds available nationwide.


By that very simple logic, it is simply no longer possible to put forward the argument of protecting the NHS as a reason for mandatory or coerced vaccination and this has always been my absolute position that we need to push back against.

If people want to take a vaccine under their own free will, it is their responsibility to assess the pros and cons and make a decision accordingly. When governments start mandating vaccination or coercing a population into vaccination with impartial data and ill-thought-out policy it is another matter entirely. It then becomes in violation of the European Convention on Human Rights (articles 8 and 9 specifically) and shouldn't be taken lightly. (3)

Sources:

• 1: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s ... overnight/
• 2: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... next-month
• 3: https://www.echr.coe.int/documents/convention_eng.pdf

Never heard of Dr Hoffe because he's not a famous epidemiologist or a person of extensive knowledge

Now that's not a sentence that would have been read on a football message board a couple of years ago.

Got this image in my head of Bluebina flicking nonchalantly through the Ladybird Encyclopedia of Famous Epidemiologists in my head now.

The NHS is not under strain yet due to the fact that so many people are vaccinated? If the people who don't want people to have vaccines had their way and the uptake was low the NHS would be overrun, and we would presently be in lockdown?

The reason lots of vaccinated people are in hospital is because virtually everyone who is close to death, or extremely old are vaccinated so that's the main reason the figures are skewed, proportionately in younger fitter people there are much more unvaccinated per 100,000 than vaccinated in hospitals and ICU.

(dropped the full quote just because it makes it easier to read the thread)

I'd argue the NHS is under strain and has been under strain long before COVID (regular winter operations of 92% capacity being a pre-pandemic standard) - this is due to decades of mismanagement by both political parties. COVID hasn't changed that.

However, three stats in that previous post that I think are worth reiterating are:

• 17% of all hospital admissions in Nov 2020 were COVID related - including suspected and confirmed
• A&E admissions in Wales during that period were down 1,000 a day in that period
• By the time the Nightingale hospitals were closed they had seen just 304 patients.

November 2020 was when Alpha had been detected and was becoming the dominant strain. Remember Alpha was a strain more virulent than Delta which replaced it (which in turn is set to be replaced by the less virulent strain Omicron.)

All of these statistics are pre-vaccine.

However, as this thread can be a testament to, statistics are often used like drunks use lamp posts, more for support than illumination.

But what we can unequivocally state that is beyond refute is:

November 2020, with a significantly more virulent strain, and no vaccine - the very uppermost percentage of COVID related hospitalisations was 17%

Now let us consider that in addition to over half a billion pounds being wasted on Nightingale hospitals that were essentially never used we also see know that:

• bed capacity in the NHS was deliberately reduced due to COVID policy during the period (1)
• but even with that reduction as per NHS statement "even in the winter wave – which saw more than 100,000 patients with the virus admitted in a single month – there were beds available across the country."(2)

And just to hammer the point home again this was all before the vaccine.

I would therefore say that it is a reasonable assertion that the impact of COVID at the peak of the Alpha variant on the population in and of itself didn't put any significant additional strain on the NHS.

Now a year later, whether we want to celebrate the overwhelming success of the vaccine for further reducing hospitalisations, whether we want to just believe that it is simply down to the virus mutating to less virulent dominant strains, or whether we want to believe it is a mix of the two is irrelevant - hospitalisations are down year on year and half the level of demand of the previous year when the NHS still had beds available nationwide.


By that very simple logic, it is simply no longer possible to put forward the argument of protecting the NHS as a reason for mandatory or coerced vaccination and this has always been my absolute position that we need to push back against.

If people want to take a vaccine under their own free will, it is their responsibility to assess the pros and cons and make a decision accordingly. When governments start mandating vaccination or coercing a population into vaccination with impartial data and ill-thought-out policy it is another matter entirely. It then becomes in violation of the European Convention on Human Rights (articles 8 and 9 specifically) and shouldn't be taken lightly. (3)

Sources:

• 1: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s ... overnight/
• 2: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... next-month
• 3: https://www.echr.coe.int/documents/convention_eng.pdf

A bit busy I'll read it all later

But first off who said Alpha was more virulent than Delta?

These guys disagree ?

https://fortune.com/2021/07/08/alpha-de ... d-variant/

Alpha bad, Delta worse—and Lambda? Why each new COVID variant causes so much alarm

Alpha
This variant emerged in England in September 2020 and drove a winter surge in cases that sent the U.K. back into lockdown in January. Other countries, particularly in Europe, followed the U.K. in reimposing movement restrictions. Alpha was previously the dominant strain in the U.S., and has been reported in at least 173 countries, according to the WHO. The strain may pose a more serious threat to women. Female Covid patients are more likely to require intensive care and have a slightly higher chance of dying from an alpha infection than if they caught another variant, according to an analysis. No such effect was found among males.


Delta
This fast-spreading variant stoked a dramatic wave of Covid cases in India that overwhelmed hospitals and crematoriums and has since been found in at 104 countries. It’s estimated to be 55% more transmissible than alpha and almost twice as infectious as the original strain that began spreading worldwide in early 2020. Doctors in India have linked delta to a broader array of Covid symptoms, including hearing impairment, and early data from Scotland found Covid patients infected by delta were 1.8 times more likely to hospitalized than those with an alpha infection. Other evidence found delta had some propensity to evade antibody-based treatments and that it potentially increased the risk of reinfection in people who have recovered from Covid caused by another strain.

Never heard of Dr Hoffe because he's not a famous epidemiologist or a person of extensive knowledge

Now that's not a sentence that would have been read on a football message board a couple of years ago.

Got this image in my head of Bluebina flicking nonchalantly through the Ladybird Encyclopedia of Famous Epidemiologists in my head now.

It's my favourite at the minute, and the ladybird book of famous people that don't want people to have vaccines, Nicky Minge, Gillian McKieth and Dave the Milton Keynes undertaker are amongst the most renowned medical experts on the vaccines

The NHS is not under strain yet due to the fact that so many people are vaccinated? If the people who don't want people to have vaccines had their way and the uptake was low the NHS would be overrun, and we would presently be in lockdown?

The reason lots of vaccinated people are in hospital is because virtually everyone who is close to death, or extremely old are vaccinated so that's the main reason the figures are skewed, proportionately in younger fitter people there are much more unvaccinated per 100,000 than vaccinated in hospitals and ICU.

(dropped the full quote just because it makes it easier to read the thread)

I'd argue the NHS is under strain and has been under strain long before COVID (regular winter operations of 92% capacity being a pre-pandemic standard) - this is due to decades of mismanagement by both political parties. COVID hasn't changed that.

However, three stats in that previous post that I think are worth reiterating are:

• 17% of all hospital admissions in Nov 2020 were COVID related - including suspected and confirmed
• A&E admissions in Wales during that period were down 1,000 a day in that period
• By the time the Nightingale hospitals were closed they had seen just 304 patients.

November 2020 was when Alpha had been detected and was becoming the dominant strain. Remember Alpha was a strain more virulent than Delta which replaced it (which in turn is set to be replaced by the less virulent strain Omicron.)

All of these statistics are pre-vaccine.

However, as this thread can be a testament to, statistics are often used like drunks use lamp posts, more for support than illumination.

But what we can unequivocally state that is beyond refute is:

November 2020, with a significantly more virulent strain, and no vaccine - the very uppermost percentage of COVID related hospitalisations was 17%

Now let us consider that in addition to over half a billion pounds being wasted on Nightingale hospitals that were essentially never used we also see know that:

• bed capacity in the NHS was deliberately reduced due to COVID policy during the period (1)
• but even with that reduction as per NHS statement "even in the winter wave – which saw more than 100,000 patients with the virus admitted in a single month – there were beds available across the country."(2)

And just to hammer the point home again this was all before the vaccine.

I would therefore say that it is a reasonable assertion that the impact of COVID at the peak of the Alpha variant on the population in and of itself didn't put any significant additional strain on the NHS.

Now a year later, whether we want to celebrate the overwhelming success of the vaccine for further reducing hospitalisations, whether we want to just believe that it is simply down to the virus mutating to less virulent dominant strains, or whether we want to believe it is a mix of the two is irrelevant - hospitalisations are down year on year and half the level of demand of the previous year when the NHS still had beds available nationwide.


By that very simple logic, it is simply no longer possible to put forward the argument of protecting the NHS as a reason for mandatory or coerced vaccination and this has always been my absolute position that we need to push back against.

If people want to take a vaccine under their own free will, it is their responsibility to assess the pros and cons and make a decision accordingly. When governments start mandating vaccination or coercing a population into vaccination with impartial data and ill-thought-out policy it is another matter entirely. It then becomes in violation of the European Convention on Human Rights (articles 8 and 9 specifically) and shouldn't be taken lightly. (3)

Sources:

• 1: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s ... overnight/
• 2: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... next-month
• 3: https://www.echr.coe.int/documents/convention_eng.pdf

"I'd argue the NHS is under strain and has been under strain long before COVID (regular winter operations of 92% capacity being a pre-pandemic standard) - this is due to decades of mismanagement by both political parties. COVID hasn't changed that. "
No Argument, the NHS is screwed, that's why it can't cope with hardly any covid patients - Agree my wording could have been, just about coping because of the vaccines, without them the NHS would be overrun and we would be in full lockdowns.

"November 2020 was when Alpha had been detected and was becoming the dominant strain. Remember Alpha was a strain more virulent than Delta which replaced it (which in turn is set to be replaced by the less virulent strain Omicron.)"

I don't think it was less virulent see above post, which states it was 1.8 times more likely for hospitalisation, also it was 55% more transmissible which means many more people were infected resulting in larger numbers needing hospital beds, which is why we had firebreaks and lockdowns.

They are now saying the huge numbers of people likely to catch the potentially less virulent Omicron variant might lead to an increase in hospitalisations in the short term?

Regardless if you look at the number of cases per day and compare them with the figures from last year it's as clear as day the NHS in Wales wouldn't be able to cope had it not been for the vaccine protection

The NHS is not under strain yet due to the fact that so many people are vaccinated? If the people who don't want people to have vaccines had their way and the uptake was low the NHS would be overrun, and we would presently be in lockdown?

The reason lots of vaccinated people are in hospital is because virtually everyone who is close to death, or extremely old are vaccinated so that's the main reason the figures are skewed, proportionately in younger fitter people there are much more unvaccinated per 100,000 than vaccinated in hospitals and ICU.

(dropped the full quote just because it makes it easier to read the thread)

I'd argue the NHS is under strain and has been under strain long before COVID (regular winter operations of 92% capacity being a pre-pandemic standard) - this is due to decades of mismanagement by both political parties. COVID hasn't changed that.

However, three stats in that previous post that I think are worth reiterating are:

• 17% of all hospital admissions in Nov 2020 were COVID related - including suspected and confirmed
• A&E admissions in Wales during that period were down 1,000 a day in that period
• By the time the Nightingale hospitals were closed they had seen just 304 patients.

November 2020 was when Alpha had been detected and was becoming the dominant strain. Remember Alpha was a strain more virulent than Delta which replaced it (which in turn is set to be replaced by the less virulent strain Omicron.)

All of these statistics are pre-vaccine.

However, as this thread can be a testament to, statistics are often used like drunks use lamp posts, more for support than illumination.

But what we can unequivocally state that is beyond refute is:

November 2020, with a significantly more virulent strain, and no vaccine - the very uppermost percentage of COVID related hospitalisations was 17%

Now let us consider that in addition to over half a billion pounds being wasted on Nightingale hospitals that were essentially never used we also see know that:

• bed capacity in the NHS was deliberately reduced due to COVID policy during the period (1)
• but even with that reduction as per NHS statement "even in the winter wave – which saw more than 100,000 patients with the virus admitted in a single month – there were beds available across the country."(2)

And just to hammer the point home again this was all before the vaccine.

I would therefore say that it is a reasonable assertion that the impact of COVID at the peak of the Alpha variant on the population in and of itself didn't put any significant additional strain on the NHS.

Now a year later, whether we want to celebrate the overwhelming success of the vaccine for further reducing hospitalisations, whether we want to just believe that it is simply down to the virus mutating to less virulent dominant strains, or whether we want to believe it is a mix of the two is irrelevant - hospitalisations are down year on year and half the level of demand of the previous year when the NHS still had beds available nationwide.


By that very simple logic, it is simply no longer possible to put forward the argument of protecting the NHS as a reason for mandatory or coerced vaccination and this has always been my absolute position that we need to push back against.

If people want to take a vaccine under their own free will, it is their responsibility to assess the pros and cons and make a decision accordingly. When governments start mandating vaccination or coercing a population into vaccination with impartial data and ill-thought-out policy it is another matter entirely. It then becomes in violation of the European Convention on Human Rights (articles 8 and 9 specifically) and shouldn't be taken lightly. (3)

Sources:

• 1: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s ... overnight/
• 2: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... next-month
• 3: https://www.echr.coe.int/documents/convention_eng.pdf

And here - https://www.nationalgeographic.com/scie ... ds-answers

Then goes on to say thank God for the vaccines !

Why is Delta more infectious and deadly? New research holds answers.
Studies show that Delta replicates more quickly and generates more virus particles than other variants, but vaccines still protect against serious infections.

BYSANJAY MISHRA
PUBLISHED AUGUST 6, 2021
• 13 MIN READ

As the United States battles a fourth surge of COVID-19, scientists are learning much about the Delta variant that wasn’t known when it was first reported in India in March: it is one of the most infectious respiratory viruses known, it causes more severe COVID-19 than other variants, and it is more likely to evade antibodies.

Evidence of all these traits is clear. The Delta variant has caused a sharp rise in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths across the U.S. and the rest of the world. Driven by relaxed social distancing and mask guidelines, poor vaccine uptake in parts of the U.S., and lack of availability elsewhere, Delta has rapidly become the dominant variant in the U.S., causing more than 93 percent of new infections, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It has also spread to more than 135 countries, according to the World Health Organization.

The secret to Delta’s success is the ease with which it spreads. The CDC estimates that Delta can be as infectious as chicken pox and is only slightly less contagious than measles, which is considered one of the most transmissible viruses. Now the Delta variant is spreading like wildfire through the South, particularly in Louisiana, which has one of the lowest vaccination rates in the country; only 37 percent of the population is fully vaccinated compared to 50 percent nationally. In the U.S., daily cases are now averaging 100,000, a nine-fold jump from mid-June.

“It's surprising the extent of how infectious this particular variant is, and how well it can then replicate in the upper respiratory tract. Just the increased infectivity of this Delta variant has sort of increased our concern relative to what was there for the Alpha variant, which was increased relative to the original virus,” says Mehul Suthar, a virologist at Emory University.

Because the Delta variant is so much more contagious than previous variants, CDC issued new guidelines on July 27, 2021, which recommend that even after vaccination, people should “wear a mask indoors in public if you are in an area of substantial or high transmission.”

A vastly more transmissible virus
To track how easily an infectious disease such as COVID-19 spreads, epidemiologists use a metric called the basic reproductive number or R0 (pronounced “R naught”). R0 is the average number of susceptible people that each infected person is expected to infect. It is difficult to be certain about the R0 for ancient pandemics, but for the 1918 influenza pandemic, the average infected person is thought to have passed the disease to between two and three people, giving it an R0 of between 2.0 and 3.0. The first SARS coronavirus epidemic of 2002, has an R0 of three; for the second coronavirus epidemic—Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) first identified in 2012—R0 was between 0.69 to 1.3.

Now the CDC estimates that people infected with Delta pass the virus to between five and 9.5 people. This is higher than the original virus identified in Wuhan, China, which had an R0 between 2.3 and 2.7, and the Alpha variant which had an R0 between four and five. Delta can be as infectious as chicken pox, which has an R0 between 9 and 10.

If R0 is larger than one, the number of infected people will keep growing exponentially until all susceptible people have either died or recovered and herd immunity is reached. If R0 is less than one the outbreak will likely fizzle out on its own.

For the original SARS-CoV-2, herd immunity could be reached when around 67 percent of the population was immune—either through natural infection or vaccination. “For Delta, those thresholds we estimate being well over 80 percent, maybe approaching 90 percent,” Ricardo Franco, an assistant professor of medicine at the University of Alabama at Birmingham said at a press briefing organized by the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

A higher viral load
Delta is not only more transmissible than previous SARS-CoV-2 variants, it can also cause more severe disease. People infected with the Delta variant harbor about 1,000 times the number of viral particles (which experts call the “viral load”) in their nasal swab compared to those infected with another strain, “which is an enormous increase,” says Eric Topol, the founder and director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, who was not involved in this study.

One reason for this is that the Delta variant replicates more quickly in the nose. A study, not yet peer reviewed has shown that the Delta variant took an average of four days to reach detectable levels after exposure to a sick person, compared to about six days for the original Wuhan virus.

Even after vaccination, Delta infections produced a 10-fold higher viral load than non-Delta infections. In fact several recent studies, none peer reviewed yet, show that vaccinated people carry the same viral load as the unvaccinated. “We are seeing infections and seeing the large number of people being infected by a single case, which is quite worrying. It means that the virus is highly transmissible and is able to avoid … vaccine-induced immunity,” said Ravindra Gupta, a clinical microbiologist at the University of Cambridge, who led the study that is not yet peer reviewed.

Delta is also better at destroying cells because of a mutation at position 681 of its spike protein, which is fast becoming common in other variants around the globe and is thought to be an evolutionary game changer. This P681R mutation makes it easier for Delta and the related Kappa variants to invade the host cell by fusing infected cells into structures called syncytium, which is a way of accelerating infection. Syncytia are also formed by other viruses such as HIV. “We found in cell culture experiments that Delta variant shows bigger syncytia when compared to SARS-CoV-2,” explained Kei Sato, a virologist at The University of Tokyo, Japan.

The Delta variant has also undergone multiple mutations in its spike protein that seem to improve the virus’s ability to bind to the ACE2 receptor and evade the immune response.

Breakthrough infections and boosters
The good news is that a complete dose of the currently authorized COVID-19 vaccines remains effective. “All the vaccines work pretty well," said Jeff Kwong, an infectious diseases epidemiologist at the University of Toronto. "And the vaccines were more protective against the severe outcomes compared to symptomatic infection,” Kwong has shown in a study, not yet peer reviewed, the effectiveness of Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca vaccines against symptomatic infection, hospitalization, or death between December 2020 and May 2021.

A bit busy I'll read it all later

But first off who said Alpha was more virulent than Delta?

In fairness, you are quite right to pick that out. There was a fair bit of noise early on with Delta causing more hospitalisations per infection than Alpha - particularly based on an early study out of Scotland - and I'll fully accept this could be the case having done some further reading after you flagged it up.

However, i'd put my foot into that camp only hesitantly as the data is still inconclusive and most reporting is largely based on one study and it then seemed to be taken as fact. It could be, but I prefer to see such things clarified by multiple data sets. Not saying they aren't there, just I haven't had time to read them.

However, as always, I'm happy to re-evaluate something if I've misunderstood/misread data.

The one thing I would say is that the raw UK data from ONS shows a significant reduction of hospitalisations across the UK as Delta became dominant.

Of course, there are multiple arguments that can be put forward as to why a more transmissible, more virulent variant would result in fewer COVID hospitalisations overall. The vaccine rollout could be one, more favourable weather with higher levels of UV and vitamin D within the population as the variant became dominant in the spring another, increased natural herd immunity another.

However, while I am always open to admitting when I might have made a mistake, in this instance, the premise of the earlier post stands even if we accept the delta variant is more virulent than alpha.

In November 2020 with no vaccine, the very uppermost percentage of COVID related hospitalisations was 17% - and the NHS still coped. We are now at significantly lower levels of COVID hospitalisation than then.

So to return to the initial point I was making, the trope that mass vaccination is required to protect the NHS is now proven to be invalid (no pun intended). Without the vaccine, with 100,000 cases in a month, there were still beds available. That is just a matter of historical fact now.

Similarly, the trope that those who don't take the vaccine are 'granny killers' and putting others at risk is also false as we know the virus can be spread by the vaccinated.

Without these two arguments holding ground, there is zero societal benefit for forcing vaccination on anyone.

The decision for vaccination now well and truly has to come down to nothing other than personal choice and that is my only argument here.

As long as we stay within the bounds of bodily autonomy, I'm happy. I'm even OK with COVID passes as long as we stay within the parameters we currently operate in whereby if you can prove you don't have the virus then you can get the pass.

Unfortunately, though we're seeing forced vaccinations emerging in Austria and Germany, internment camps for the unvaccinated in Australia (even for those with negative tests), and New York operating a Vaccine Passport system that doesn't acknowledge actual testing for the virus - so it is nothing more than a control mechanism dressed up as a health monitoring tool.

That is the shit that worries me far, far more than the virus. It always has been and I've been consistent on this from the beginning.

Anyway back to writing a dull technical report. Until next time Dudes.

They are now saying the huge numbers of people likely to catch the potentially less virulent Omicron variant might lead to an increase in hospitalisations in the short term?

One last comment as I really need to get this damn report done (procrastination king me) - but we posted at the same time so just acknowledge this point.

This is something of a misnomer I've seen in current reporting based on numbers in South Africa. The fact is that Omicron is so transmissible that it is infecting huge swathes of the country with majority having very mild symptoms or asymptomatic entirely.

However, because it is so prevalent currently, many arriving in hospital for other reasons are testing for Omicron as well which is skewing the numbers currently. It is not necessarily an indicator of such a short term spike being replicated in other populations as it becomes the dominant variant.

There is a bit of one plus one equals three in the reporting that we might see a spike in hospital admissions as the data is still emerging - so such a trend is not necessarily a direct correlation (or at the very least cannot be proven to be at this stage)

A bit busy I'll read it all later

But first off who said Alpha was more virulent than Delta?

In fairness, you are quite right to pick that out. There was a fair bit of noise early on with Delta causing more hospitalisations per infection than Alpha - particularly based on an early study out of Scotland - and I'll fully accept this could be the case having done some further reading after you flagged it up.

However, i'd put my foot into that camp only hesitantly as the data is still inconclusive and most reporting is largely based on one study and it then seemed to be taken as fact. It could be, but I prefer to see such things clarified by multiple data sets. Not saying they aren't there, just I haven't had time to read them.

However, as always, I'm happy to re-evaluate something if I've misunderstood/misread data.

The one thing I would say is that the raw UK data from ONS shows a significant reduction of hospitalisations across the UK as Delta became dominant.

Of course, there are multiple arguments that can be put forward as to why a more transmissible, more virulent variant would result in fewer COVID hospitalisations overall. The vaccine rollout could be one, more favourable weather with higher levels of UV and vitamin D within the population as the variant became dominant in the spring another, increased natural herd immunity another.

However, while I am always open to admitting when I might have made a mistake, in this instance, the premise of the earlier post stands even if we accept the delta variant is more virulent than alpha.

In November 2020 with no vaccine, the very uppermost percentage of COVID related hospitalisations was 17% - and the NHS still coped. We are now at significantly lower levels of COVID hospitalisation than then.

So to return to the initial point I was making, the trope that mass vaccination is required to protect the NHS is now proven to be invalid (no pun intended). Without the vaccine, with 100,000 cases in a month, there were still beds available. That is just a matter of historical fact now.

Similarly, the trope that those who don't take the vaccine are 'granny killers' and putting others at risk is also false as we know the virus can be spread by the vaccinated.

Without these two arguments holding ground, there is zero societal benefit for forcing vaccination on anyone.

The decision for vaccination now well and truly has to come down to nothing other than personal choice and that is my only argument here.

As long as we stay within the bounds of bodily autonomy, I'm happy. I'm even OK with COVID passes as long as we stay within the parameters we currently operate in whereby if you can prove you don't have the virus then you can get the pass.

Unfortunately, though we're seeing forced vaccinations emerging in Austria and Germany, internment camps for the unvaccinated in Australia (even for those with negative tests), and New York operating a Vaccine Passport system that doesn't acknowledge actual testing for the virus - so it is nothing more than a control mechanism dressed up as a health monitoring tool.

That is the shit that worries me far, far more than the virus. It always has been and I've been consistent on this from the beginning.

Anyway back to writing a dull technical report. Until next time Dudes.

I agree with a lot of the above weather etc, but still feel the biggest factor by a mile is the vaccine programme.

I am against mandatory vaccinate, I was all for giving people a nudge early on and still trying to correct what I believe propaganda nonsense, but by now i think people have mostly decided to have it or not, and hardly anyone will change their mind so we agree on that

They are now saying the huge numbers of people likely to catch the potentially less virulent Omicron variant might lead to an increase in hospitalisations in the short term?

One last comment as I really need to get this damn report done (procrastination king me) - but we posted at the same time so just acknowledge this point.

This is something of a misnomer I've seen in current reporting based on numbers in South Africa. The fact is that Omicron is so transmissible that it is infecting huge swathes of the country with majority having very mild symptoms or asymptomatic entirely.

However, because it is so prevalent currently, many arriving in hospital for other reasons are testing for Omicron as well which is skewing the numbers currently. It is not necessarily an indicator of such a short term spike being replicated in other populations as it becomes the dominant variant.

There is a bit of one plus one equals three in the reporting that we might see a spike in hospital admissions as the data is still emerging - so such a trend is not necessarily a direct correlation (or at the very least cannot be proven to be at this stage)

I'm hopeful you're right, if it is a milder variant and can act as the latest alternative to a vaccine without blocking hospitals that would be brilliant

They are now saying the huge numbers of people likely to catch the potentially less virulent Omicron variant might lead to an increase in hospitalisations in the short term?

One last comment as I really need to get this damn report done (procrastination king me) - but we posted at the same time so just acknowledge this point.

This is something of a misnomer I've seen in current reporting based on numbers in South Africa. The fact is that Omicron is so transmissible that it is infecting huge swathes of the country with majority having very mild symptoms or asymptomatic entirely.

However, because it is so prevalent currently, many arriving in hospital for other reasons are testing for Omicron as well which is skewing the numbers currently. It is not necessarily an indicator of such a short term spike being replicated in other populations as it becomes the dominant variant.

There is a bit of one plus one equals three in the reporting that we might see a spike in hospital admissions as the data is still emerging - so such a trend is not necessarily a direct correlation (or at the very least cannot be proven to be at this stage)

I'm hopeful you're right, if it is a milder variant and can act as the latest alternative to a vaccine without blocking hospitals that would be brilliant

It's pretty much what's beginning to seep through a few reliable sources including the WHO. Dont't let the BBC know though as they certainly won't want to report on this.

A bit busy I'll read it all later

But first off who said Alpha was more virulent than Delta?

In fairness, you are quite right to pick that out. There was a fair bit of noise early on with Delta causing more hospitalisations per infection than Alpha - particularly based on an early study out of Scotland - and I'll fully accept this could be the case having done some further reading after you flagged it up.

However, i'd put my foot into that camp only hesitantly as the data is still inconclusive and most reporting is largely based on one study and it then seemed to be taken as fact. It could be, but I prefer to see such things clarified by multiple data sets. Not saying they aren't there, just I haven't had time to read them.

However, as always, I'm happy to re-evaluate something if I've misunderstood/misread data.

The one thing I would say is that the raw UK data from ONS shows a significant reduction of hospitalisations across the UK as Delta became dominant.

Of course, there are multiple arguments that can be put forward as to why a more transmissible, more virulent variant would result in fewer COVID hospitalisations overall. The vaccine rollout could be one, more favourable weather with higher levels of UV and vitamin D within the population as the variant became dominant in the spring another, increased natural herd immunity another.

However, while I am always open to admitting when I might have made a mistake, in this instance, the premise of the earlier post stands even if we accept the delta variant is more virulent than alpha.

In November 2020 with no vaccine, the very uppermost percentage of COVID related hospitalisations was 17% - and the NHS still coped. We are now at significantly lower levels of COVID hospitalisation than then.

So to return to the initial point I was making, the trope that mass vaccination is required to protect the NHS is now proven to be invalid (no pun intended). Without the vaccine, with 100,000 cases in a month, there were still beds available. That is just a matter of historical fact now.

Similarly, the trope that those who don't take the vaccine are 'granny killers' and putting others at risk is also false as we know the virus can be spread by the vaccinated.

Without these two arguments holding ground, there is zero societal benefit for forcing vaccination on anyone.

The decision for vaccination now well and truly has to come down to nothing other than personal choice and that is my only argument here.

As long as we stay within the bounds of bodily autonomy, I'm happy. I'm even OK with COVID passes as long as we stay within the parameters we currently operate in whereby if you can prove you don't have the virus then you can get the pass.

Unfortunately, though we're seeing forced vaccinations emerging in Austria and Germany, internment camps for the unvaccinated in Australia (even for those with negative tests), and New York operating a Vaccine Passport system that doesn't acknowledge actual testing for the virus - so it is nothing more than a control mechanism dressed up as a health monitoring tool.

That is the shit that worries me far, far more than the virus. It always has been and I've been consistent on this from the beginning.

Anyway back to writing a dull technical report. Until next time Dudes.

I forgot to add your mate in New Zealand is at it again!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-59589775

New Zealand to ban cigarettes for future generations

I forgot to add your mate in New Zealand is at it again!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-59589775

New Zealand to ban cigarettes for future generations

Okay, okay I know its childish but...

horse-face.png

You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

Tottenham's Premier League trip to Brighton postponed because of Covid-19 cases at Spurs -

Tottenham's Premier League match at Brighton on Sunday has been postponed following a number of positive Covid-19 cases among Spurs' players and staff.

Tottenham's Europa Conference League match against Rennes was called off on Thursday after eight players and five members of staff tested positive for coronavirus at the London club.

I forgot to add your mate in New Zealand is at it again!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-59589775

New Zealand to ban cigarettes for future generations

Okay, okay I know its childish but...

horse-face.png

Ha ha got to be done

Covid: Christmas plans fears amid Omicron concern -

People fear having their Christmas plans scuppered for a second year amid concern over the Covid variant Omicron.

Wales' coronavirus rules are now being reviewed weekly instead of every three weeks in response to the new variant.

Wales' Health Minister Eluned Morgan has said it is too early to say if there will be festive restrictions.

But the Welsh government has urged people to take lateral flow tests before going shopping, to Christmas parties or visiting others, and extended guidance on mask-wearing to pubs and restaurants, when people are not eating.

Last year, plans to relax Covid rules from 23 to 27 December to allow people to meet loved ones were scrapped with just a few days' notice.

Instead, only two households were allowed to meet on Christmas Day only.

Covid: Boris Johnson sets new booster target over 'Omicron tidal wave' -

Booster jabs will be offered to everyone over 18 in England from this week, the PM has announced, as he declared an "Omicron emergency".

"No one should be in any doubt, there is a tidal wave of Omicron coming," Boris Johnson said in a TV statement on Sunday evening.

The target to offer a booster to all adults by the end of January will be brought forward by a month, he said.

Some medical appointments may also be postponed to focus on boosters.

Mr Johnson gave his update on Sunday evening - just hours after the UK's Covid alert level was raised to four due to the spread of the new Omicron virus variant.

Level four means a high or rising level of transmission - and the last time the UK was at level four was in May.

They are now saying the huge numbers of people likely to catch the potentially less virulent Omicron variant might lead to an increase in hospitalisations in the short term?

One last comment as I really need to get this damn report done (procrastination king me) - but we posted at the same time so just acknowledge this point.

This is something of a misnomer I've seen in current reporting based on numbers in South Africa. The fact is that Omicron is so transmissible that it is infecting huge swathes of the country with majority having very mild symptoms or asymptomatic entirely.

However, because it is so prevalent currently, many arriving in hospital for other reasons are testing for Omicron as well which is skewing the numbers currently. It is not necessarily an indicator of such a short term spike being replicated in other populations as it becomes the dominant variant.

There is a bit of one plus one equals three in the reporting that we might see a spike in hospital admissions as the data is still emerging - so such a trend is not necessarily a direct correlation (or at the very least cannot be proven to be at this stage)

I'm hopeful you're right, if it is a milder variant and can act as the latest alternative to a vaccine without blocking hospitals that would be brilliant

It's pretty much what's beginning to seep through a few reliable sources including the WHO. Dont't let the BBC know though as they certainly won't want to report on this.

The problem at the moment is the sheer weight of numbers in terms of infections and transmission.

It means that even with the new strain being less damaging it will still infect millions so even if the percentage of people ending up in hospital is very low the actual numbers could be significant along with a subsequent increase in deaths.

Add into the equation that around 11% (6m+) of adults haven't had the vaccination and only 40% have had the booster (which appears really important against this particular strain) the country simply can't wait for "herd immunity" to kick in hence the desperate push for booster uptake.

This guy seems to have the facts on hospitals/covid in Wales. Formerly in a senior role at ONS. and guess what?

https://twitter.com/statsjamie

This guy seems to have the facts on hospitals/covid in Wales. Formerly in a senior role at ONS. and guess what?

https://twitter.com/statsjamie

There is a lot of scaremongering but most scientists/medics agree that current rate of increase in new variance infections is a doubling every 2 days.

Pretty easy to do the maths for everyone on that.

This guy seems to have the facts on hospitals/covid in Wales. Formerly in a senior role at ONS. and guess what?

https://twitter.com/statsjamie

There is a lot of scaremongering but most scientists/medics agree that current rate of increase in new variance infections is a doubling every 2 days.

Pretty easy to do the maths for everyone on that.

Since when is an expert statistician's analysis scaremongering?

In fact he's not scaremongering, quite the contrary. It's the Government and associated parties that are ramping up the fear.

To which scientists/medics are you referring ?

This guy seems to have the facts on hospitals/covid in Wales. Formerly in a senior role at ONS. and guess what?

https://twitter.com/statsjamie

There is a lot of scaremongering but most scientists/medics agree that current rate of increase in new variance infections is a doubling every 2 days.

Pretty easy to do the maths for everyone on that.

Since when is an expert statistician's analysis scaremongering?

In fact he's not scaremongering, quite the contrary. It's the Government and associated parties that are ramping up the fear.

To which scientists/medics are you referring ?

Sorry point not specifically directed at you, tend to agree with your point.

Although on the scientist/medics question the current modelling is pretty much consistent. Not a big problem on it's own as long as people get the booster in time.

This guy seems to have the facts on hospitals/covid in Wales. Formerly in a senior role at ONS. and guess what?

https://twitter.com/statsjamie

There is a lot of scaremongering but most scientists/medics agree that current rate of increase in new variance infections is a doubling every 2 days.

Pretty easy to do the maths for everyone on that.

Since when is an expert statistician's analysis scaremongering?

In fact he's not scaremongering, quite the contrary. It's the Government and associated parties that are ramping up the fear.

To which scientists/medics are you referring ?

Sorry point not specifically directed at you, tend to agree with your point.

Although on the scientist/medics question the current modelling is pretty much consistent. Not a big problem on it's own as long as people get the booster in time.

cases mean nada

If someone has zero symptoms then they are healthy despite what a test tells them

This guy seems to have the facts on hospitals/covid in Wales. Formerly in a senior role at ONS. and guess what?

https://twitter.com/statsjamie

There is a lot of scaremongering but most scientists/medics agree that current rate of increase in new variance infections is a doubling every 2 days.

Pretty easy to do the maths for everyone on that.

Since when is an expert statistician's analysis scaremongering?

In fact he's not scaremongering, quite the contrary. It's the Government and associated parties that are ramping up the fear.

To which scientists/medics are you referring ?

Sorry point not specifically directed at you, tend to agree with your point.

Although on the scientist/medics question the current modelling is pretty much consistent. Not a big problem on it's own as long as people get the booster in time.

cases mean nada

If someone has zero symptoms then they are healthy despite what a test tells them

That's not strictly true though is it ?

So if, for example, the variant results in 1% of positive tests ending up in hospital the number of positives is massively important because 1% of 10000 is ten times more than 1% of 1000. That's where the modelling comes in and what they are trying to get to the bottom of.

Initial figures are that the R rate is above 2, if you remember scientists were previously worried if it only went above 1, hence the urgency in developing the research.

In the meantime, until they know for sure they want people to get the added protection of the booster which is the only measure that appears to slow this thing down.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-03614-z

If someone has zero symptoms then they are healthy despite what a test tells them

Cool, let's go & tell everyone who has ever tested positive for anything but has zero symptoms that they're really healthy despite what a test tells them. Some random guy on the internet said so therefore it must be true.

This guy seems to have the facts on hospitals/covid in Wales. Formerly in a senior role at ONS. and guess what?

https://twitter.com/statsjamie

There is a lot of scaremongering but most scientists/medics agree that current rate of increase in new variance infections is a doubling every 2 days.

Pretty easy to do the maths for everyone on that.

Since when is an expert statistician's analysis scaremongering?

In fact he's not scaremongering, quite the contrary. It's the Government and associated parties that are ramping up the fear.

To which scientists/medics are you referring ?

Sorry point not specifically directed at you, tend to agree with your point.

Although on the scientist/medics question the current modelling is pretty much consistent. Not a big problem on it's own as long as people get the booster in time.

The modelling by Ferguson/Imperial College etc has been exaggerated and proven to be incorrect and inaccurate throughout this shitshow.
it's used to frighten the public and cover for Govt actions.

As for the 'booster' it's effectively the same stuff they've been using to date. We know this doesn't halt infection or onward transmission. So what's going to change?

If someone has zero symptoms then they are healthy despite what a test tells them

Cool, let's go & tell everyone who has ever tested positive for anything but has zero symptoms that they're really healthy despite what a test tells them. Some random guy on the internet said so therefore it must be true.

Sense at last!

Premier League reports 42 positive Covid-19 results in past week -

Forty-two Premier League players and staff tested positive for Covid-19 in the past week - the most recorded in the league over a seven-day period.

It is the highest number since 40 cases were reported in January.

That week, 2,295 tests were carried out, while 3,805 tests were done in the latest round from 6-12 December.

Brighton, Tottenham, Leicester, Manchester United, Aston Villa and Norwich have all confirmed cases, with United's game at Brentford in doubt.

Sunday's Brighton v Tottenham fixture was postponed following a Covid-19 outbreak at Spurs.

Previously, the most positive tests returned in a week this season was 16 from 16-22 August, when there were 3,060 tests.

The latest report of 42 results is an increase of 30 on the 12 positives reported from 3,154 tests from 29 November - 5 December.