' Wales - How it could go. '

Realistic scenarios leading up to Ireland game and what we would need from that last game (based on Moldova losing all 3 games)


SCENARIO ONE

Wales beat Moldova/Georgia..........Ireland lose to Serbia / beat Moldova

We go into the game 1pt ahead meaning a win or a draw is acceptable depending on goal difference.

Or Ireland draw Serbia / beat Moldova

This means we are level on points with Ireland with a straight to head game and goal difference coming into play if drawn.

Or Ireland Beat Serbia and Moldova (all depends on Serbia v Austria too)

This means Wales trail Serbia in 2nd by a point (assuming Serbia beat Moldova) meaning only a win would be enough against Ireland and Serbia can't win v Austria.


SCENARIO TWO

Wales beat Moldova/draw with Georgia........Ireland lose to Serbia / beat Moldova

This scenario means we go into Ireland game a point behind meaning only a win is enough to qualify. If Ireland draw or beat Serbia in the scenario then it curtains before we play Ireland.

Or Ireland draw to Serbia /beat Moldova

We go into Ireland game needed a win to qualify because of a 2pt deficit.

Or Ireland Beat Serbia and Moldova

We need to beat Ireland and Serbia to lose to Austria and goal difference be in our favour to knock Serbia off 2nd.

SCENARIO THREE

Wales beat Moldova/lose to Georgia .......Ireland lose to Serbia / beat Moldova

It means nothing but a win v Ireland will do


Or Ireland draw to Serbia /beat Moldova

This scenario means we go into Ireland game needing to win and goal difference to be in our favour to qualify.

Or Ireland Beat Serbia and Moldova

It's all over before Ireland game


I may have missed something but this how it looks to me.

Realistic scenarios leading up to Ireland game and what we would need from that last game (based on Moldova losing all 3 games)


SCENARIO ONE

Wales beat Moldova/Georgia..........Ireland lose to Serbia / beat Moldova

We go into the game 1pt ahead meaning a win or a draw is acceptable depending on goal difference.

Or Ireland draw Serbia / beat Moldova

This means we are level on points with Ireland with a straight to head game and goal difference coming into play if drawn.

Or Ireland Beat Serbia and Moldova (all depends on Serbia v Austria too)

This means Wales trail Serbia in 2nd by a point (assuming Serbia beat Moldova) meaning only a win would be enough against Ireland and Serbia can't win v Austria.


SCENARIO TWO

Wales beat Moldova/draw with Georgia........Ireland lose to Serbia / beat Moldova

This scenario means we go into Ireland game a point behind meaning only a win is enough to qualify. If Ireland draw or beat Serbia in the scenario then it curtains before we play Ireland.

Or Ireland draw to Serbia /beat Moldova

We go into Ireland game needed a win to qualify because of a 2pt deficit.

Or Ireland Beat Serbia and Moldova

We need to beat Ireland and Serbia to lose to Austria and goal difference be in our favour to knock Serbia off 2nd.

SCENARIO THREE

Wales beat Moldova/lose to Georgia .......Ireland lose to Serbia / beat Moldova

It means nothing but a win v Ireland will do


Or Ireland draw to Serbia /beat Moldova

This scenario means we go into Ireland game needing to win and goal difference to be in our favour to qualify.

Or Ireland Beat Serbia and Moldova

It's all over before Ireland game


I may have missed something but this how it looks to me.

Looking at other groups 2nd is not looking good for auto place and even playoffs not looking good to many draws

I didn't even consider that you know, we need more wins.

For me its simple. We win all 3 games we make it, or at least give us a shout in playoff. Think of the last minute goal we conceeded against Serbia at home, the goal we conceeded out there when we had 1-0 in the bag and sat back invited pressure on... Then the late conceed in Austria - all vital goals to take points off us.

For me its simple. We win all 3 games we make it, or at least give us a shout in playoff. Think of the last minute goal we conceeded against Serbia at home, the goal we conceeded out there when we had 1-0 in the bag and sat back invited pressure on... Then the late conceed in Austria - all vital goals to take points off us.

In truth we were lucky to get draws out of several games, winning all 3 games is not sufficient because we have to hope Serbia drop more points than us beating them! As i don't think our point's tally wIll be sufficient to get playoffs compared to other group runners up or its going to be very close!

For me its simple. We win all 3 games we make it, or at least give us a shout in playoff. Think of the last minute goal we conceeded against Serbia at home, the goal we conceeded out there when we had 1-0 in the bag and sat back invited pressure on... Then the late conceed in Austria - all vital goals to take points off us.

In truth we were lucky to get draws out of several games, winning all 3 games is not sufficient because we have to hope Serbia drop more points than us beating them! As i don't think our point's tally wIll be sufficient to get playoffs compared to other group runners up or its going to be very close!

lucky in several games against who.?

Not sure if i posted the pictures right crap at technology???
This is how the 2nd place league looks not taking the bottom team moldova's results into acount. If we beat moldova and go into 2nd place on Tuesday if ireland dont beat serbia we will be bottom of that league because we only picked up 8 points and if montengro or denmark pick up anything in thier games we will be behind them on goal difference if 1 of them losses and draws because we are only +1 after last night being our only win against the other 4 teams drawing 5 games, so even if we finish 2nd it dont look like it will be enough for playoffs because other teams in that 2nd league will be picking up points to in the next 3 games to get to 2nd. So i think we need to win the group so i will be rooting for ireland to beat serbia on Tuesday and then hopefully Austria takes something off them in the next game and we would win the group then with 3 wins.

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For me its simple. We win all 3 games we make it, or at least give us a shout in playoff. Think of the last minute goal we conceeded against Serbia at home, the goal we conceeded out there when we had 1-0 in the bag and sat back invited pressure on... Then the late conceed in Austria - all vital goals to take points off us.

In truth we were lucky to get draws out of several games, winning all 3 games is not sufficient because we have to hope Serbia drop more points than us beating them! As i don't think our point's tally wIll be sufficient to get playoffs compared to other group runners up or its going to be very close!

lucky in several games against who.?

Georgia and Serbia at Home both teams had good chances to score several goals but then that is my opinion which obviously is not same as others! I actually thought we should have beaten Ireland and Austria away
Think post above makes my point about runners up?

It would look even worse for us if Denmark beat Armenia or Montengro beat romania tomorrow and those teams on 10 points win aswel, the max we can get in that mini league is only 14 points so im thinking we need to win it even more now!

It would look even worse for us if Denmark beat Armenia or Montengro beat romania tomorrow and those teams on 10 points win aswel, the max we can get in that mini league is only 14 points so im thinking we need to win it even more now!

nah itll be fine, because to get second place we would need wins against both georgia and ireland, another 6 points and will be in the playoff

all we can do is win the 3..and hope
its going to be very harsh on whoever is the 9th best runner up though.

It would look even worse for us if Denmark beat Armenia or Montengro beat romania tomorrow and those teams on 10 points win aswel, the max we can get in that mini league is only 14 points so im thinking we need to win it even more now!

nah itll be fine, because to get second place we would need wins against both georgia and ireland, another 6 points and will be in the playoff

I hope your right but I honestly can't see 14 points(our max)finishing nothing but bottom of that league with what the other teams got left in that mini league too!

We won just one out of our opening six games. It was always a big ask to expect us to win four on the trot after that. Not impossible but I think unlikely.

people think by finishing 2nd will get us into playoffs at least! But we've got to have better points than other teams who finish 2nd and at moment its not looking good, can change obviously but it will be hard as a few 3rd place teams have more points already so they come into equation aswell.

people think by finishing 2nd will get us into playoffs at least! But we've got to have better points than other teams who finish 2nd and at moment its not looking good, can change obviously but it will be hard as a few 3rd place teams have more points already so they come into equation aswell.

I don't hence my posts above but nobody seems to think im talking sense about that 2nd place mini league!!

people think by finishing 2nd will get us into playoffs at least! But we've got to have better points than other teams who finish 2nd and at moment its not looking good, can change obviously but it will be hard as a few 3rd place teams have more points already so they come into equation aswell.

I don't hence my posts above but nobody seems to think im talking sense about that 2nd place mini league!!

I know people should look at criteria for going to Russia by being in 2nd place! Just saw several groups and we are fair way behind points wise to some teams already in 2nd place. I'm not taken into account other teams in 3rd place who are in contention aswell. In fact our group is low on points in general compared to other groups.

For me its simple. We win all 3 games we make it, or at least give us a shout in playoff. Think of the last minute goal we conceeded against Serbia at home, the goal we conceeded out there when we had 1-0 in the bag and sat back invited pressure on... Then the late conceed in Austria - all vital goals to take points off us.

In truth we were lucky to get draws out of several games, winning all 3 games is not sufficient because we have to hope Serbia drop more points than us beating them! As i don't think our point's tally wIll be sufficient to get playoffs compared to other group runners up or its going to be very close!

lucky in several games against who.?

Georgia and Serbia at Home both teams had good chances to score several goals but then that is my opinion which obviously is not same as others! I actually thought we should have beaten Ireland and Austria away
Think post above makes my point about runners up?

so ..going by your judgement and ..only yours...we should have lost 2 and won 2 of the 4 draws...thats 2pts more than we have now....so unlucky springs to mind.

people think by finishing 2nd will get us into playoffs at least! But we've got to have better points than other teams who finish 2nd and at moment its not looking good, can change obviously but it will be hard as a few 3rd place teams have more points already so they come into equation aswell.

I don't hence my posts above but nobody seems to think im talking sense about that 2nd place mini league!!

My point exactly, I really think we need to win the group because even if we win our 2 games against georgia and Ireland that will give us 14 points in that 2nd place league and that probably won't be enough looking at the fixtures the teams got who are above us in that league already, even if someone does get as low as 14 points it will come down to goal difference and if we win them 2 games by the odd goal we will only have +3 difference which probably won't be enough either.

For me its simple. We win all 3 games we make it, or at least give us a shout in playoff. Think of the last minute goal we conceeded against Serbia at home, the goal we conceeded out there when we had 1-0 in the bag and sat back invited pressure on... Then the late conceed in Austria - all vital goals to take points off us.

In truth we were lucky to get draws out of several games, winning all 3 games is not sufficient because we have to hope Serbia drop more points than us beating them! As i don't think our point's tally wIll be sufficient to get playoffs compared to other group runners up or its going to be very close!

lucky in several games against who.?

Georgia and Serbia at Home both teams had good chances to score several goals but then that is my opinion which obviously is not same as others! I actually thought we should have beaten Ireland and Austria away
Think post above makes my point about runners up?

so ..going by your judgement and ..only yours...we should have lost 2 and won 2 of the 4 draws...thats 2pts more than we have now....so unlucky springs to mind.

Mmmm was just my opinion of way games were played not how many points they got us, the reality is we drew 5 games in row! Did you even look at post i referred to? Because if you did you would see 2nd will very unlikely to get us into playoffs because of lack points gained . This thread is basically about lack of points costing us when it comes to finishing 2nd

It's entirely possible we can finish ahead of the 2nd place team from the Greece group



Cheer on Belgium tonight!!

For me its simple. We win all 3 games we make it, or at least give us a shout in playoff. Think of the last minute goal we conceeded against Serbia at home, the goal we conceeded out there when we had 1-0 in the bag and sat back invited pressure on... Then the late conceed in Austria - all vital goals to take points off us.

In truth we were lucky to get draws out of several games, winning all 3 games is not sufficient because we have to hope Serbia drop more points than us beating them! As i don't think our point's tally wIll be sufficient to get playoffs compared to other group runners up or its going to be very close!

lucky in several games against who.?

Georgia and Serbia at Home both teams had good chances to score several goals but then that is my opinion which obviously is not same as others! I actually thought we should have beaten Ireland and Austria away
Think post above makes my point about runners up?

so ..going by your judgement and ..only yours...we should have lost 2 and won 2 of the 4 draws...thats 2pts more than we have now....so unlucky springs to mind.

Mmmm was just my opinion of way games were played not how many points they got us, the reality is we drew 5 games in row! Did you even look at post i referred to? Because if you did you would see 2nd will very unlikely to get us into playoffs because of lack points gained . This thread is basically about lack of points costing us when it comes to finishing 2nd

14 points will almost certainly see us both 2nd and in the top 8 runners up.
other countries have tough games where they will drop points as they already have done.
3 countries currently holding top 8 spots are averaging 1.66 pts per game..which equates to 13.28 pts..of course you cant get that so its 13 or 14 { closer to 13 and therefore likely 1 out of the 3 at least will get 13 } if we beat ROI and Georgia we will have averaged 1.75.....14points home and dry.

My predictions for what its worth...


Next round we beat Moldova, ireland and serbia draw so:

Serbia 16pts
Ireland 14pts
Us 14pts

Next round we beat Georgia, Serbia draw with Austria and Ireland beat Moldova so:

Ireland 17 pts
Us 17 pts
Serbia 17 pts

Meaning any one can go through on the last game. Doesnt come much tighter than this!

For me its simple. We win all 3 games we make it, or at least give us a shout in playoff. Think of the last minute goal we conceeded against Serbia at home, the goal we conceeded out there when we had 1-0 in the bag and sat back invited pressure on... Then the late conceed in Austria - all vital goals to take points off us.

In truth we were lucky to get draws out of several games, winning all 3 games is not sufficient because we have to hope Serbia drop more points than us beating them! As i don't think our point's tally wIll be sufficient to get playoffs compared to other group runners up or its going to be very close!

lucky in several games against who.?

Georgia and Serbia at Home both teams had good chances to score several goals but then that is my opinion which obviously is not same as others! I actually thought we should have beaten Ireland and Austria away
Think post above makes my point about runners up?

so ..going by your judgement and ..only yours...we should have lost 2 and won 2 of the 4 draws...thats 2pts more than we have now....so unlucky springs to mind.

Mmmm was just my opinion of way games were played not how many points they got us, the reality is we drew 5 games in row! Did you even look at post i referred to? Because if you did you would see 2nd will very unlikely to get us into playoffs because of lack points gained . This thread is basically about lack of points costing us when it comes to finishing 2nd

14 points will almost certainly see us both 2nd and in the top 8 runners up.
other countries have tough games where they will drop points as they already have done.
3 countries currently holding top 8 spots are averaging 1.66 pts per game..which equates to 13.28 pts..of course you cant get that so its 13 or 14 { closer to 13 and therefore likely 1 out of the 3 at least will get 13 } if we beat ROI and Georgia we will have averaged 1.75.....14points home and dry.

I hope you are right but i can honestly see us missing out by 1 point or on goal difference if we only beat Georgia and Ireland by the odd goal!

My predictions for what its worth...


Next round we beat Moldova, ireland and serbia draw so:

Serbia 16pts
Ireland 14pts
Us 14pts

Next round we beat Georgia, Serbia draw with Austria and Ireland beat Moldova so:

Ireland 17 pts
Us 17 pts
Serbia 17 pts

Meaning any one can go through on the last game. Doesnt come much tighter than this!

If this scenario did happen you still got to fancy serbia to win the group with them having Georgia home last game and them already having 4 goals better difference than us, we need to put a pile on moldova Tuesday and beat Georgia and Ireland by a few goals if this was to happen to top the group.

For me its simple. We win all 3 games we make it, or at least give us a shout in playoff. Think of the last minute goal we conceeded against Serbia at home, the goal we conceeded out there when we had 1-0 in the bag and sat back invited pressure on... Then the late conceed in Austria - all vital goals to take points off us.

In truth we were lucky to get draws out of several games, winning all 3 games is not sufficient because we have to hope Serbia drop more points than us beating them! As i don't think our point's tally wIll be sufficient to get playoffs compared to other group runners up or its going to be very close!

lucky in several games against who.?

Georgia and Serbia at Home both teams had good chances to score several goals but then that is my opinion which obviously is not same as others! I actually thought we should have beaten Ireland and Austria away
Think post above makes my point about runners up?

so ..going by your judgement and ..only yours...we should have lost 2 and won 2 of the 4 draws...thats 2pts more than we have now....so unlucky springs to mind.

Mmmm was just my opinion of way games were played not how many points they got us, the reality is we drew 5 games in row! Did you even look at post i referred to? Because if you did you would see 2nd will very unlikely to get us into playoffs because of lack points gained . This thread is basically about lack of points costing us when it comes to finishing 2nd

14 points will almost certainly see us both 2nd and in the top 8 runners up.
other countries have tough games where they will drop points as they already have done.
3 countries currently holding top 8 spots are averaging 1.66 pts per game..which equates to 13.28 pts..of course you cant get that so its 13 or 14 { closer to 13 and therefore likely 1 out of the 3 at least will get 13 } if we beat ROI and Georgia we will have averaged 1.75.....14points home and dry.

I hope you are right but i can honestly see us missing out by 1 point or on goal difference if we only beat Georgia and Ireland by the odd goal!

sweden play netherlands away last game ,and the only game where they can get points for the runners up race. a defeat puts them on 13pts..would also put netherlands on 13pts.
northern ireland have 3 tough games czech republic.germany at home and norway away. 3 draws or 2 defeats an a win gives them 13.
there are others..
think its all a bit premature at moment though

Goal Belgium!

Goal Belgium!

Greece can now only get 13pts in the runners up race in that group..Bosnia can get 14 though, but that would include a win against Belgium.

All these scenarios seem to be based on Wales achieving four successive wins to finish the qualifying campaign. With only two wins from seven games, I think it unlikely that we will win the next three to add to yesterday's victory. Unless we show a really big improvement, we will fall well short of what is required.

Goal Belgium!

Greece can now only get 13pts in the runners up race in that group..Bosnia can get 14 though, but that would include a win against Belgium.

Greece are already on 13 with games against Cyprus (Away) and Gibraltar (Home) remaining - expect them to win both so takes them to 19 so we would therefore have to win all 3 remaining to better them

Goal Belgium!

Greece can now only get 13pts in the runners up race in that group..Bosnia can get 14 though, but that would include a win against Belgium.

Greece are already on 13 with games against Cyprus (Away) and Gibraltar (Home) remaining - expect them to win both so takes them to 19 so we would therefore have to win all 3 remaining to better them

Points against the bottoms teams in group don't count towards the 2nd place mini league!!