Championship Odds

Watford are 200/1 to win the Championship with Coral

Meaning what?

Ill give you 10,000-1 if you want?

I can't believe that bookies are still giving odds !

I can't believe that bookies are still giving odds !

Ah I see.

Yes they will give odds on an all manner of impossible things if they think some fool will stick a speculative fiver on it. They would give 100-1 on price William divorcing Kate and Kate getting with Harry if they thought someone would do it.

Bookies are such cons its ridiculous, I don't understand why people go in them. The other day two tennis players playing each other were both 10/11 favourites. Nonsense stuff.

I can't believe that bookies are still giving odds !

Ah I see.

Yes they will give odds on an all manner of impossible things if they think some fool will stick a speculative fiver on it. They would give 100-1 on price William divorcing Kate and Kate getting with Harry if they thought someone would do it.

Bookies are such cons its ridiculous, I don't understand why people go in them. The other day two tennis players playing each other were both 10/11 favourites. Nonsense stuff.

BOOK makers.... they balance the books (at a profit). No longer do they give odds that represent CHANCE.

I can't believe that bookies are still giving odds !

Ah I see.

Yes they will give odds on an all manner of impossible things if they think some fool will stick a speculative fiver on it. They would give 100-1 on price William divorcing Kate and Kate getting with Harry if they thought someone would do it.

Bookies are such cons its ridiculous, I don't understand why people go in them. The other day two tennis players playing each other were both 10/11 favourites. Nonsense stuff.

BOOK makers.... they balance the books (at a profit). No longer do they give odds that represent CHANCE.

Yes I understand the term book makers

I'm saying I don't know why people use them when you can bet on anything on the exchanges at its true probability.

I can't believe that bookies are still giving odds !

Ah I see.

Yes they will give odds on an all manner of impossible things if they think some fool will stick a speculative fiver on it. They would give 100-1 on price William divorcing Kate and Kate getting with Harry if they thought someone would do it.

Bookies are such cons its ridiculous, I don't understand why people go in them. The other day two tennis players playing each other were both 10/11 favourites. Nonsense stuff.

I tried to have a bet on William and Kate getting divorced within 5 years - well the family do have 'form'!! -( tried Laddies, Hills and Betfred on the day William and Kate got married ) - and they wouldnt offer me odds/take my bet

I can't believe that bookies are still giving odds !

Ah I see.

Yes they will give odds on an all manner of impossible things if they think some fool will stick a speculative fiver on it. They would give 100-1 on price William divorcing Kate and Kate getting with Harry if they thought someone would do it.

Bookies are such cons its ridiculous, I don't understand why people go in them. The other day two tennis players playing each other were both 10/11 favourites. Nonsense stuff.

I tried to have a bet on William and Kate getting divorced within 5 years - well the family do have 'form'!! -( tried Laddies, Hills and Betfred on the day William and Kate got married ) - and they wouldnt offer me odds/take my bet

Email them. They will do it.

I can't believe that bookies are still giving odds !

Ah I see.

Yes they will give odds on an all manner of impossible things if they think some fool will stick a speculative fiver on it. They would give 100-1 on price William divorcing Kate and Kate getting with Harry if they thought someone would do it.

Bookies are such cons its ridiculous, I don't understand why people go in them. The other day two tennis players playing each other were both 10/11 favourites. Nonsense stuff.

BOOK makers.... they balance the books (at a profit). No longer do they give odds that represent CHANCE.

Yes I understand the term book makers

I'm saying I don't know why people use them when you can bet on anything on the exchanges at its true probability.

Sorry what is a true probability

I can't believe that bookies are still giving odds !

Ah I see.

Yes they will give odds on an all manner of impossible things if they think some fool will stick a speculative fiver on it. They would give 100-1 on price William divorcing Kate and Kate getting with Harry if they thought someone would do it.

Bookies are such cons its ridiculous, I don't understand why people go in them. The other day two tennis players playing each other were both 10/11 favourites. Nonsense stuff.

BOOK makers.... they balance the books (at a profit). No longer do they give odds that represent CHANCE.

Yes I understand the term book makers

I'm saying I don't know why people use them when you can bet on anything on the exchanges at its true probability.

Sorry what is a true probability

If you want to bet on a flip of the coin then you know it's a 50/50 chance so the odds on either selection would be evens.

Betting on odds any less than that and you are guaranteed to lose in the long run, 100% certain. At a bookmakers they will price that up as 10/11 each selection.

If you bet £11 on heads 100 times - then if you backed at the correct odds you should be very close to breaking even (the more flips the more sure this is to be).. If you took the bookies odds then you would be around £50 down.

There are also things where two tennis players are priced up as 1/50 and the other 18/1. This makes no sense. If you are backing against a 1/50 shot then the odds you should be getting are 50/1.

I can't believe that bookies are still giving odds !

There are always people out there who will bet at these long odds .

I can't believe that bookies are still giving odds !

Ah I see.

Yes they will give odds on an all manner of impossible things if they think some fool will stick a speculative fiver on it. They would give 100-1 on price William divorcing Kate and Kate getting with Harry if they thought someone would do it.

Bookies are such cons its ridiculous, I don't understand why people go in them. The other day two tennis players playing each other were both 10/11 favourites. Nonsense stuff.

BOOK makers.... they balance the books (at a profit). No longer do they give odds that represent CHANCE.

Yes I understand the term book makers

I'm saying I don't know why people use them when you can bet on anything on the exchanges at its true probability.

Sorry what is a true probability

If you want to bet on a flip of the coin then you know it's a 50/50 chance so the odds on either selection would be evens.

Betting on odds any less than that and you are guaranteed to lose in the long run, 100% certain. At a bookmakers they will price that up as 10/11 each selection.

If you bet £11 on heads 100 times - then if you backed at the correct odds you should be very close to breaking even (the more flips the more sure this is to be).. If you took the bookies odds then you would be around £50 down.

There are also things where two tennis players are priced up as 1/50 and the other 18/1. This makes no sense. If you are backing against a 1/50 shot then the odds you should be getting are 50/1.

That's all fine but what is a "True Probability".

Something is true if it is based on fact or reality. A probability is something that may or may not happen.


So could you give me an example of a "True Probability"

I can't believe that bookies are still giving odds !

There are always people out there who will bet at these long odds .

Can't argue with that Tony but in the case of Cardiff getting promoted not even Betfair are offering a market on that, on winning the league yes (1/20). but promotion no.

Already a done deal.

That's all fine but what is a "True Probability".

Something is true if it is based on fact or reality. A probability is something that may or may not happen.


So could you give me an example of a "True Probability"

I just did.

A coin flip is 50:50 so the true probability based odds is evens. Roulette numbers, the true probability of landing on the number 4 is 36-1 yet you only get odds of 35-1.

That's all fine but what is a "True Probability".

Something is true if it is based on fact or reality. A probability is something that may or may not happen.


So could you give me an example of a "True Probability"

I just did.

A coin flip is 50:50 so the true probability based odds is evens. Roulette numbers, the true probability of landing on the number 4 is 36-1 yet you only get odds of 35-1.

The first time you flip a coin it can have one of three outcomes, head, tails or it can land on it's edge so it's not 50/50, however remote the likelyhood of landing on it's edge.

If the first time you toss a coin it land on heads what are the odds it will the second time or third 50/50

The same applies to roulette which is a game designed to deliver a profit for the house, known as the "edge" and help by the "0" or green box on the table. Are the odds, probability or likelyhood whatever label you want to put on it really 50/50 when you bet red or black If a red number drops on 10 occasions is it still a 50/50 chance the next roll will be black

On a european roulette table the "House Edge" is on average 2.7% which is helped by the 37 numbers returning odds of only 35/1 when picking the right number, by the existance of the green "0" which gives the house an "edge"on any variation like spilt, basket, street, column, odd, even, red or black.

Whenever you spin a coin or roll a roulette wheel there will always be variables which will affect the outcome.

It's the variables which mean that your assertion that the chances. 50/50. make the true odds as even for either heads or tails when spinning a coin is wrong. Probability theory, stochastic process would all disprove that assertion.

Still believe there is a "True Probability".

castle blue 1 roathy 0

That's all fine but what is a "True Probability".

Something is true if it is based on fact or reality. A probability is something that may or may not happen.


So could you give me an example of a "True Probability"

I just did.

A coin flip is 50:50 so the true probability based odds is evens. Roulette numbers, the true probability of landing on the number 4 is 36-1 yet you only get odds of 35-1.

The first time you flip a coin it can have one of three outcomes, head, tails or it can land on it's edge so it's not 50/50, however remote the likelyhood of landing on it's edge.

If the first time you toss a coin it land on heads what are the odds it will the second time or third 50/50

The same applies to roulette which is a game designed to deliver a profit for the house, known as the "edge" and help by the "0" or green box on the table. Are the odds, probability or likelyhood whatever label you want to put on it really 50/50 when you bet red or black If a red number drops on 10 occasions is it still a 50/50 chance the next roll will be black

On a european roulette table the "House Edge" is on average 2.7% which is helped by the 37 numbers returning odds of only 35/1 when picking the right number, by the existance of the green "0" which gives the house an "edge"on any variation like spilt, basket, street, column, odd, even, red or black.

Whenever you spin a coin or roll a roulette wheel there will always be variables which will affect the outcome.

It's the variables which mean that your assertion that the chances. 50/50. make the true odds as even for either heads or tails when spinning a coin is wrong. Probability theory, stochastic process would all disprove that assertion.

Still believe there is a "True Probability".

Yes there is true probability as there is no option of "coin lands in its side" so the bet would be void. The odds of a coin landing on head or tails IS 50:50 in betting terms. No getting around that I'm afraid.

Onto roulette. I didnt mention red or black, I mentioned the numbers. The odds of it landing on any number is 36-1, that's the true probability - yet the odds are 35-1. Why you are talking about the double zero I have no idea, maybe you should have left that bit out of your cut and paste job as it has no relevance at all.

You also seem to be suggesting that things have memory too. If the ball lands on the number 4 then it's still the same odds to land on the number 4 again, and the time after and the time after, and the time after.... And so on.

I'm afraid you are spectacularly wrong on this one.

castle blue 1 roathy 0

If you are an idiot yeah

He's basically said the true odds of heads or tails isn't 50:50 in betting terms as it may land on its side

the odds of any number coming up on a roulette table are 37-1

the odds of any number coming up on a roulette table are 37-1

And whats the payout?

Yes there is true probability as there is no option of "coin lands in its side" so the bet would be void. The odds of a coin landing on head or tails IS 50:50 in betting terms. No getting around that I'm afraid.

Onto roulette. I didnt mention red or black, I mentioned the numbers. The odds of it landing on any number is 36-1, that's the true probability - yet the odds are 35-1. Why you are talking about the double zero I have no idea, maybe you should have left that bit out of your cut and paste job as it has no relevance at all.

You also seem to be suggesting that things have memory too. If the ball lands on the number 4 then it's still the same odds to land on the number 4 again, and the time after and the time after, and the time after.... And so on.

I'm afraid you are spectacularly wrong on this one.

So you are saying it would be impossible for a coin to land on it's side You are now saying in your interpretation landing on it's side is not an option only heads or tails and therefore there is a 50/50 chance. But it is possible for it to happen so how am I "Spectacularly" wrong.

"True" means based on fact or reality whilst probability is looking at the likelyhood that something may or may not happen.

So as it's a fact that a coin could land on it's side why do you dismiss the likelyhood and what effect does that have on your 50/50 theory.

Yes there is true probability as there is no option of "coin lands in its side" so the bet would be void. The odds of a coin landing on head or tails IS 50:50 in betting terms. No getting around that I'm afraid.

Onto roulette. I didnt mention red or black, I mentioned the numbers. The odds of it landing on any number is 36-1, that's the true probability - yet the odds are 35-1. Why you are talking about the double zero I have no idea, maybe you should have left that bit out of your cut and paste job as it has no relevance at all.

You also seem to be suggesting that things have memory too. If the ball lands on the number 4 then it's still the same odds to land on the number 4 again, and the time after and the time after, and the time after.... And so on.

I'm afraid you are spectacularly wrong on this one.

So you are saying it would be impossible for a coin to land on it's side You are now saying in your interpretation landing on it's side is not an option only heads or tails and therefore there is a 50/50 chance. But it is possible for it to happen so how am I "Spectacularly" wrong.

"True" means based on fact or reality whilst probability is looking at the likelyhood that something may or may not happen.

So as it's a fact that a coin could land on it's side why do you dismiss the likelyhood and what effect does that have on your 50/50 theory.

Because at a bookies or betting exchange if the coin landed in its side the bet would be void. The true odds probability of heads or tails IS evens. There is no getting around it.

And the roulette. The chances of landing on a number is 37-1 yet the odds given is 36-1. The true probability odds is 37-1 as a result. If the ball flips off the table or flood happens and the ball gets carried away etc etc etc has no impact in the probability odds as any case like that would have the bet void.

the odds of any number coming up on a roulette table are 37-1

And whats the payout?

its 35-1.

im just baffled why you are claiming the odds are 36 lol

the odds of any number coming up on a roulette table are 37-1

And whats the payout?

its 35-1.

im just baffled why you are claiming the odds are 36 lol

nothing to be baffled over. I'm not into roulette, my point was the true probability isn't shown in what odds are offered, as you have just proved.

fair enough.

Yes there is true probability as there is no option of "coin lands in its side" so the bet would be void. The odds of a coin landing on head or tails IS 50:50 in betting terms. No getting around that I'm afraid.

Onto roulette. I didnt mention red or black, I mentioned the numbers. The odds of it landing on any number is 36-1, that's the true probability - yet the odds are 35-1. Why you are talking about the double zero I have no idea, maybe you should have left that bit out of your cut and paste job as it has no relevance at all.

You also seem to be suggesting that things have memory too. If the ball lands on the number 4 then it's still the same odds to land on the number 4 again, and the time after and the time after, and the time after.... And so on.

I'm afraid you are spectacularly wrong on this one.

So you are saying it would be impossible for a coin to land on it's side You are now saying in your interpretation landing on it's side is not an option only heads or tails and therefore there is a 50/50 chance. But it is possible for it to happen so how am I "Spectacularly" wrong.

"True" means based on fact or reality whilst probability is looking at the likelyhood that something may or may not happen.

So as it's a fact that a coin could land on it's side why do you dismiss the likelyhood and what effect does that have on your 50/50 theory.

Because at a bookies or betting exchange if the coin landed in its side the bet would be void. The true odds probability of heads or tails IS evens. There is no getting around it.

And the roulette. The chances of landing on a number is 37-1 yet the odds given is 36-1. The true probability odds is 37-1 as a result. If the ball flips off the table or flood happens and the ball gets carried away etc etc etc has no impact in the probability odds as any case like that would have the bet void.

So we're at a bookies that's your arguement. Well you can play roulette at a bookies and in roulette using your thought process red or black is a 50/50 chance. What happens if you bet on red and the ball lands on green 0. Party time at the bookies I think because there is no void option, it's called the house edge. No ball flipping off the table, no flood, no plague of locusts and no void bets. If your lucky you get half your stake back, it's called "En Prison" . The House wins. So in a simple red / black which looks a simple 50/50 option isn't.

So back to the tossing the coin option we have clearly identified that it is possible for a coin to land on it's side so any bookmaker or betting exchange would cover that likelyhood. Voiding the bet maybe an option, but very unlikely, in gambling the house wins so the coin on it's side option will always be in play.

What effect does the "En Prison" rule have on your 50/50 red or black bet and are the odds actually evens.

Yes there is true probability as there is no option of "coin lands in its side" so the bet would be void. The odds of a coin landing on head or tails IS 50:50 in betting terms. No getting around that I'm afraid.

Onto roulette. I didnt mention red or black, I mentioned the numbers. The odds of it landing on any number is 36-1, that's the true probability - yet the odds are 35-1. Why you are talking about the double zero I have no idea, maybe you should have left that bit out of your cut and paste job as it has no relevance at all.

You also seem to be suggesting that things have memory too. If the ball lands on the number 4 then it's still the same odds to land on the number 4 again, and the time after and the time after, and the time after.... And so on.

I'm afraid you are spectacularly wrong on this one.

So you are saying it would be impossible for a coin to land on it's side You are now saying in your interpretation landing on it's side is not an option only heads or tails and therefore there is a 50/50 chance. But it is possible for it to happen so how am I "Spectacularly" wrong.

"True" means based on fact or reality whilst probability is looking at the likelyhood that something may or may not happen.

So as it's a fact that a coin could land on it's side why do you dismiss the likelyhood and what effect does that have on your 50/50 theory.

Because at a bookies or betting exchange if the coin landed in its side the bet would be void. The true odds probability of heads or tails IS evens. There is no getting around it.

And the roulette. The chances of landing on a number is 37-1 yet the odds given is 36-1. The true probability odds is 37-1 as a result. If the ball flips off the table or flood happens and the ball gets carried away etc etc etc has no impact in the probability odds as any case like that would have the bet void.

So we're at a bookies that's your arguement. Well you can play roulette at a bookies and in roulette using your thought process red or black is a 50/50 chance. What happens if you bet on red and the ball lands on green 0. Party time at the bookies I think because there is no void option, it's called the house edge. No ball flipping off the table, no flood, no plague of locusts and no void bets. If your lucky you get half your stake back, it's called "En Prison" . The House wins. So in a simple red / black which looks a simple 50/50 option isn't.

what this makes no sense. We are talking about a bookies

What do you mean you can't play roulette in a bookies? It's the bookies biggest earner

I've never claimed red or black is 50:50 you just made that up.

So back to the tossing the coin option we have clearly identified that it is possible for a coin to land on it's side so any bookmaker or betting exchange would cover that likelyhood. Voiding the bet maybe an option, but very unlikely, in gambling the house wins so the coin on it's side option will always be in play.

no they wouldn't and no they don't. Hads or tails bets are popular in many Asian countries and there is never a "side " option as the likelihood of it landing on its side is nearly impossible. Any other outcome is void, I'm not sure what you are finding so complicated about this.

What effect does the "En Prison" rule have on your 50/50 red or black bet and are the odds actually evens.

I didn't ever mention a red or black bet, you did. The odds on red or black aren't 50:50 as there is a 37-1 chance the ball will land on green. Which if course you would only get 36-1 on.... Hence my point.

castle blue 1 roathy 0

If you are an idiot yeah

He's basically said the true odds of heads or tails isn't 50:50 in betting terms as it may land on its side

I thought you and roathy were two different people

take your time now

Yes there is true probability as there is no option of "coin lands in its side" so the bet would be void. The odds of a coin landing on head or tails IS 50:50 in betting terms. No getting around that I'm afraid.

Onto roulette. I didnt mention red or black, I mentioned the numbers. The odds of it landing on any number is 36-1, that's the true probability - yet the odds are 35-1. Why you are talking about the double zero I have no idea, maybe you should have left that bit out of your cut and paste job as it has no relevance at all.

You also seem to be suggesting that things have memory too. If the ball lands on the number 4 then it's still the same odds to land on the number 4 again, and the time after and the time after, and the time after.... And so on.

I'm afraid you are spectacularly wrong on this one.

So you are saying it would be impossible for a coin to land on it's side You are now saying in your interpretation landing on it's side is not an option only heads or tails and therefore there is a 50/50 chance. But it is possible for it to happen so how am I "Spectacularly" wrong.

"True" means based on fact or reality whilst probability is looking at the likelyhood that something may or may not happen.

So as it's a fact that a coin could land on it's side why do you dismiss the likelyhood and what effect does that have on your 50/50 theory.

Because at a bookies or betting exchange if the coin landed in its side the bet would be void. The true odds probability of heads or tails IS evens. There is no getting around it.

And the roulette. The chances of landing on a number is 37-1 yet the odds given is 36-1. The true probability odds is 37-1 as a result. If the ball flips off the table or flood happens and the ball gets carried away etc etc etc has no impact in the probability odds as any case like that would have the bet void.

So we're at a bookies that's your arguement. Well you can play roulette at a bookies and in roulette using your thought process red or black is a 50/50 chance. What happens if you bet on red and the ball lands on green 0. Party time at the bookies I think because there is no void option, it's called the house edge. No ball flipping off the table, no flood, no plague of locusts and no void bets. If your lucky you get half your stake back, it's called "En Prison" . The House wins. So in a simple red / black which looks a simple 50/50 option isn't.

what this makes no sense. We are talking about a bookies

What do you mean you can't play roulette in a bookies? It's the bookies biggest earner

I've never claimed red or black is 50:50 you just made that up.

So back to the tossing the coin option we have clearly identified that it is possible for a coin to land on it's side so any bookmaker or betting exchange would cover that likelyhood. Voiding the bet maybe an option, but very unlikely, in gambling the house wins so the coin on it's side option will always be in play.

no they wouldn't and no they don't. Hads or tails bets are popular in many Asian countries and there is never a "side " option as the likelihood of it landing on its side is nearly impossible. Any other outcome is void, I'm not sure what you are finding so complicated about this.

What effect does the "En Prison" rule have on your 50/50 red or black bet and are the odds actually evens.

I didn't ever mention a red or black bet, you did. The odds on red or black aren't 50:50 as there is a 37-1 chance the ball will land on green. Which if course you would only get 36-1 on.... Hence my point.

Bold and big characters I'm impressed but none of it really answered the point, unless I take your comment that it's nearly impossible for a coin to land on it's side. This is progress slow progress but progress.

So in some Asian betting markets you can place a bet on the spin of a coin. The options are heads, tails or void if it's neither of those. Is that a 50/50 chance and are the odds evens.

To maintain that there is a 50/50 chance and that therefore the odds are evens on it being either heads or tails means that the process involved in tossing the coin is pure, without variation. In reality the stochastic or random process involved in tossing a coin with all it's built in variables means it cannot simply be considered a 50/50 chance.

This post has been made without the use of bold or larger characters because the logic of the arguement doesn't require further emphasis.

Bold and big characters I'm impressed but none of it really answered the point, unless I take your comment that it's nearly impossible for a coin to land on it's side. This is progress slow progress but progress.

So in some Asian betting markets you can place a bet on the spin of a coin. The options are heads, tails or void if it's neither of those. Is that a 50/50 chance and are the odds evens.

To maintain that there is a 50/50 chance and that therefore the odds are evens on it being either heads or tails means that the process involved in tossing the coin is pure, without variation. In reality the stochastic or random process involved in tossing a coin with all it's built in variables means it cannot simply be considered a 50/50 chance.

This post has been made without the use of bold or larger characters because the logic of the arguement doesn't require further emphasis.

It was big and bold for purpose of clarity. If I replied in the same font you wouldn't be able to tell who wrote what, stop being so touchy,

Yes the odds are evens for heads and evens for tails, I don't understand what is confusing you. If you place your bet on heads there is a 50% chance you will win your bet. This is basic, basic stuff.

You soun a roulette wheel and the odds of landing on a number is 37-1 and you get 36-1 so you aren't getting the true probability odds.

Surely this can't continue to confuse you?