" Our Season So Far "

After the completion of the game yesterday we currently stand top of the Championship table with 70pts out of the 102 available, this is our highest points won after 34 games since our return to the Championship and 9 more than our previous best set in season 2010/11. It is also 17 points higher than our average over the last 10 years and 16 points ahead of the same stage last season, a clear indication of the fantastic position we are in as we move into the last 12 games of the season.

So after the completion of 75% of our games where do you think we will finish? Well here are my views a sort of 3/4 report into season 2012 – 2013.

To fully appreciate our current position it is worth looking at the official league statistics covering the areas which not only identify performance, but how effective the team is against key performance criteria. The following is a comparison of our performance so far this season against the average performance of the team since the club returned to the Championship. The comparison is I think very interesting;

Wins %: 65% - 42%
Draw %: 12% - 28%
Loss %: 23% - 29%

Goals Scored: 56 – 49
Average goals per game 1.65 – 1.45
Goals Conceded: 36-39
Average goals conceded per game: 1.06 – 1.14
Goal For Conversion Rate: 7.16 – 8.00
Goals Against Conversion Rate: 10.58 – 9.5
Failed To Score%: 11.56% - 24.45%
Clean Sheets: 38.24% - 32.17%

Goal Supremacy: +0.59 - +0.31

Points Won: 70 - 53


The clear difference in the number of games won and, in my opinion, is the biggest indication of not only the never give up attitude MM has brought to the club, but this season unlike others draws are being converted to wins, a big positive in any team chasing promotion.

There can be little doubt that this season we have greater creativity in the squad which has resulted in the team failing to score in only 11% of games, against an average of 24% over the last 10 seasons, not bad for a team who lost their number 1 forward (Maynard) after just three matches. In fact our total goals scored, 56, is the 2nd highest in the last 10 years, our highest being 57 in season 2009/10. Not surprisingly we are also scoring on average 1.65 goals per game against an average of 1.45 per game since our return to the Championship, this stat is further supported by the fact we are taking fewer attempts at goal to score with a goal every 7.16 attempts. This is fewer than our average of 8.0 since our return to the Championship. Last season we needed 7.95 attempts for each goal scored and as a result we averaged only 1.61 goals per game.

Currently we have the 3rd best ranked attack in the Championship and this has, in my opinion, been the major contribution to us winning such a high % of games and is by far the biggest plus so far this season. We may not have a player likely to score 20+ goals, although in this team I believe if Maynard had not got injured he would have been there or thereabouts but we do have 9 players who have scored 4 or more goals. This is far and away the best of any club in the Championship showing we have goals throughout the team / squad and is in my opinion our greatest strength.

Sadly our defensive performance so far has not been as impressive, or to be more accurate, our defensive performance away from home is the biggest concern. Currently we have the best defensive home record in the championship with only 11 goals conceded, but away from home we have conceded 25 goals however since the away defeat at Charlton we have gone 9 games undefeated which has only been done of 2 other occasions in our history. In fact if we had avoided defeat yesterday we would have equalled an alltime club record of 10 away games without defeat. Only Leicester City and Brighton have conceded fewer goals this season which overall gives us the 3rd best defensive record in the Championship and if we can improve or at least maintain the performance it WILL seal our promotion challenge.

With 70pts from 34 games we are in pole position for not only automatic promotion but the Championship, in fact only 2 clubs Reading and Newcastle have had more points at this stage in the last 10 years. Over the last 10 years the average number of points won, after 34 games, by clubs who achieved automatic promotion is 63 points. During this period no club with 70 points at this stage has failed to go on and win automatic promotion.

Last season we took 21pts from the last 12 games and this season. Just like last, we have 7 home games and 5 away to complete the season. Repeat last seasons haul of 21 pts and we will be Champions that’s why I say well done to MM, his backroom team and of course the players for getting us in this fantastic position.

We have experience, creativity, pace all combined with the never give up attitude of MM teams and in my opinion this means that 2012/13 WILL be the year we achieve the dream of PL Football.

In my opinion the only question is, Will James Fox be doing another remix?

We are Cardiff City and we’re going to the Premier League
Watch the Bluebirds Flying High

Over to you James

Feel much more confident after reading that. We will drop points in the last 12 games but so will the other teams and I would rather be in our position at the top rather than one of the teams chasing us.

jesus,when was the last time you left the house ?
fair play to you

Cheers Gary(Castleblue) once again you have summed up our season spot on and very much appreciated.

Great report Gary

As you say we took 21 points from the last 36 points available for the final 12 games of last season, I believe we will take more than that this year and predict we will take 23 points

Cardiff v Derby W
Cardiff v Leicester D
Sheffield Weds v Cardiff W
Peterborough v Cardiff D
Cardiff v Blackburn W
Watford v Cardiff L
Cardiff v Barnsley W
Cardiff v Nottingham Forest D
Cardiff v Charlton W
Burnley v Cardiff D
Cardiff v Bolton W
Hull v Cardiff D

If my guess is correct we will finish as Champions on 93 points

Great report Gary

As you say we took 21 points from the last 36 points available for the final 12 games of last season, I believe we will take more than that this year and predict we will take 23 points

Cardiff v Derby W
Cardiff v Leicester D
Sheffield Weds v Cardiff W
Peterborough v Cardiff D
Cardiff v Blackburn W
Watford v Cardiff L
Cardiff v Barnsley W
Cardiff v Nottingham Forest D
Cardiff v Charlton W
Burnley v Cardiff D
Cardiff v Bolton W
Hull v Cardiff D

If my guess is correct we will finish as Champions on 93 points

I think the same Carl but no way we will lose at Watford mate. Believe me it is written in the stars that MM will get us promoted by winning at his former club.

Great stats, & like you i feel we will get a good result away to Watford.

Very good posts - top man!!!

Made me feel a lot better

Great stats, & like you i feel we will get a good result away to Watford.

Apparently it will be a VERY good result

PS Great post Castle I love reading your satto posts.

Great post. Sums everything up very well fair play.

Great report Gary

As you say we took 21 points from the last 36 points available for the final 12 games of last season, I believe we will take more than that this year and predict we will take 23 points

Cardiff v Derby W
Cardiff v Leicester D
Sheffield Weds v Cardiff W
Peterborough v Cardiff D
Cardiff v Blackburn W
Watford v Cardiff L
Cardiff v Barnsley W
Cardiff v Nottingham Forest D
Cardiff v Charlton W
Burnley v Cardiff D
Cardiff v Bolton W
Hull v Cardiff D

If my guess is correct we will finish as Champions on 93 points

I think this looks about right, mind you I can see us beating Leicester. We are playing well enough the other teams will also drop points.

Big week coming up and our bestest friends Leeds can do us a favour by taking points off Leicester and Palace.

i cant see Watford slipping up with 2 home games but Hull have 2 tough games on the road and if we can win the 2 home games then we might have the finishing line in sight.

Palace and Hull to draw both their games , Leicester draw with Leeds , beat Wednesday and lose to us , predicted table

City 36 76
Watford 37 69
Hull 37 67
Palace 37 63
Leicester 37 61

Thoughts?

Castleblue

That is a great statistical summary of our success this year and really puts into perspective us losing a game here or there.

Thanks for doing it.

My brain goes to mash just reading it but if I got it right.

We are champions!

Great report Gary

As you say we took 21 points from the last 36 points available for the final 12 games of last season, I believe we will take more than that this year and predict we will take 23 points

Cardiff v Derby W
Cardiff v Leicester D
Sheffield Weds v Cardiff W
Peterborough v Cardiff D
Cardiff v Blackburn W
Watford v Cardiff L
Cardiff v Barnsley W
Cardiff v Nottingham Forest D
Cardiff v Charlton W
Burnley v Cardiff D
Cardiff v Bolton W
Hull v Cardiff D

If my guess is correct we will finish as Champions on 93 points

I don't see Cardiff losing to Leicester based on the clubs performance against the top of the table thus far. Seems like the club always comes out on fire for the big games or after a loss. I can see a loss against an unexpected foe like Charlton, or Shefield though.

Great post mate

Cheers Gary - As always great post

Always a good read

ICWales can only dream of ever creating such a report

Not a great start to Gary's prediction for the last 12 matches. 2 points dropped against Derby, who have a poor away record. It looks like MMs comment a few weeks ago about not getting the "jitters" is getting to the players. 5 points clear with a game in hand will quickly go, especially with games againd Leicester, Watford and Hull. Cardiff have been way out in front for so long that the pressure is on to maintain top spot, but the chasing pack have no pressure. If previous seasons are a sign of what is to come for Cardiff, then the Play-Offs are a reality. Exciting times for Watford, Hull and CP and the "jitters" for Cardiff.

Great report Gary

As you say we took 21 points from the last 36 points available for the final 12 games of last season, I believe we will take more than that this year and predict we will take 23 points

Cardiff v Derby W
Cardiff v Leicester D
Sheffield Weds v Cardiff W
Peterborough v Cardiff D
Cardiff v Blackburn W
Watford v Cardiff L
Cardiff v Barnsley W
Cardiff v Nottingham Forest D
Cardiff v Charlton W
Burnley v Cardiff D
Cardiff v Bolton W
Hull v Cardiff D

If my guess is correct we will finish as Champions on 93 points

Got the second one right. How important that third result is now!

Third one right.

Third one right.

Going well with your predictions Rick but do you want to reconsider your prediction for the Watford match.

Third one right.

Going well with your predictions Rick but do you want to reconsider your prediction for the Watford match.

Oooop's, sorry,, their Carl's predictions,,,but i do feel we will get at least a point at Watford.

Third one right.

Going well with your predictions Rick but do you want to reconsider your prediction for the Watford match.

They are my predictions Gary, I am going to stick with my predictions as they are

Third one right.

Going well with your predictions Rick but do you want to reconsider your prediction for the Watford match.

They are my predictions Gary, I am going to stick with my predictions as they are

Sorry Carl / Rick

We will win at Watford though. Trust me

Got that one wrong Carl,,,but the ref didn't help things,,,,,did he?

Great report Gary

As you say we took 21 points from the last 36 points available for the final 12 games of last season, I believe we will take more than that this year and predict we will take 23 points

Cardiff v Derby W
Cardiff v Leicester D
Sheffield Weds v Cardiff W
Peterborough v Cardiff D
Cardiff v Blackburn W
Watford v Cardiff L
Cardiff v Barnsley W
Cardiff v Nottingham Forest D
Cardiff v Charlton W
Burnley v Cardiff D
Cardiff v Bolton W
Hull v Cardiff D

If my guess is correct we will finish as Champions on 93 points

Three out of five right now Carl,,,not bad.

But i hope your wrong on the sixth one.

A big win today, that' s for sure!

Great report Gary

As you say we took 21 points from the last 36 points available for the final 12 games of last season, I believe we will take more than that this year and predict we will take 23 points

Cardiff v Derby W
Cardiff v Leicester D
Sheffield Weds v Cardiff W
Peterborough v Cardiff D
Cardiff v Blackburn W
Watford v Cardiff L
Cardiff v Barnsley W
Cardiff v Nottingham Forest D
Cardiff v Charlton W
Burnley v Cardiff D
Cardiff v Bolton W
Hull v Cardiff D

If my guess is correct we will finish as Champions on 93 points

I don't see Cardiff losing to Leicester based on the clubs performance against the top of the table thus far. Seems like the club always comes out on fire for the big games or after a loss. I can see a loss against an unexpected foe like Charlton, or Shefield though.

Well the Posh are the unexpected loss, I say draw against Watford, and win over Barnsely or Charlton while drawing the other and it will be done.

Great report Gary

As you say we took 21 points from the last 36 points available for the final 12 games of last season, I believe we will take more than that this year and predict we will take 23 points

Cardiff v Derby W
Cardiff v Leicester D
Sheffield Weds v Cardiff W
Peterborough v Cardiff D
Cardiff v Blackburn W
Watford v Cardiff L
Cardiff v Barnsley W
Cardiff v Nottingham Forest D
Cardiff v Charlton W
Burnley v Cardiff D
Cardiff v Bolton W
Hull v Cardiff D

If my guess is correct we will finish as Champions on 93 points

Let's hope your prediction of 7 points from these next 3 home games is right Carl. If so it's partytime at the CCS after the Carlton match.

Great report Gary

As you say we took 21 points from the last 36 points available for the final 12 games of last season, I believe we will take more than that this year and predict we will take 23 points

Cardiff v Derby W
Cardiff v Leicester D
Sheffield Weds v Cardiff W
Peterborough v Cardiff D
Cardiff v Blackburn W
Watford v Cardiff L
Cardiff v Barnsley W
Cardiff v Nottingham Forest D
Cardiff v Charlton W
Burnley v Cardiff D
Cardiff v Bolton W
Hull v Cardiff D

If my guess is correct we will finish as Champions on 93 points

Let's hope your prediction of 7 points from these next 3 home games is right Carl. If so it's partytime at the CCS after the Carlton match.

A great result last night, & a massive game v Barnsley on Tuesday.

Great report Gary

As you say we took 21 points from the last 36 points available for the final 12 games of last season, I believe we will take more than that this year and predict we will take 23 points

Cardiff v Derby W
Cardiff v Leicester D
Sheffield Weds v Cardiff W
Peterborough v Cardiff D
Cardiff v Blackburn W
Watford v Cardiff L
Cardiff v Barnsley W
Cardiff v Nottingham Forest D
Cardiff v Charlton W
Burnley v Cardiff D
Cardiff v Bolton W
Hull v Cardiff D

If my guess is correct we will finish as Champions on 93 points

Let's hope your prediction of 7 points from these next 3 home games is right Carl. If so it's partytime at the CCS after the Carlton match.

Fingers crossed Gary