" Our Season So Far "
Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:55 am
After the completion of the game yesterday we currently stand top of the Championship table with 25pts out of the 36 available, this is 8 points more than the same stage last season, 4 less than our highest total in season 2006/07 and 6 more than our average since our return to the Championship.
So after the completion of 26% of our games what kind of season do you think we will have? What do you think of our start? And where do you think we will finish? Well here are my views a sort of first term report into season 2012 – 2013.
In my opinion to fully consider the performance of the team you have to bear in mind the extent of the changes to the squad that have taken place since the end of last season. During the summer MM has bought 10 new players into the club spending in the process the biggest amount of money, in a single transfer window, in the history of our club. Although this is only MM 2nd season as manager of our club there can be little doubt that this is now his team and no doubt he will be measured by how the team performs.
With so many players leaving at the end of the last season, and with the 10 new singings completed by the end of the summer transfer window we entered September with 29 players, although we have now lost both Keinan and Earnshaw leaving a squad of 27 players. How does that compare with past seasons? Well given the amount of money spent during the summer it may surprise many to know that in 5 other seasons since our return to this level we have had bigger squads;
2006/2007 – 28
2008/2009 – 29
2009/2010 – 29
2010/2011 – 28
To put this into some sort of perspective in season 2006/2007 we had our best start to a season since our return to the Championship with 29 points from the first 12 games. That season we had a squad of 28 players but we still fell away to finish mid table with the manager, (DJ) always maintaining the squad was too small to maintain a promotion challenge.
With the loss of Maynard and a squad lacking in cover in the defensive areas are expectation levels reasonable and should we be looking at this season as the next stage in the development of the squad and nothing more. Are we still a team in transition?
This question may surprise many fans but given the reality that having spent a reported £10m, and after 12 games the overall game time of the new players being only 38% of the available minutes in these games it does leave me asking why. Is it unreasonable to expect players who have cost £m’s to be ready to step into the team and be ready to compete at Championship level. MM has maintained that players like Kim Bok Yueng and Velikonja have big futures at the club, and that may well be true, but after 12 games these players have appeared in less than 1% of the available game time.
Without the luxury of PL parachute payments in my opinion when we spend £m’s on any player they need to be ready for the here and now and not for sometime in the future. In just a few months time another transfer window will open and as Reading (Jason Roberts), Southampton (Billy Sharp) and West Ham (Maynard & Vaz Te) proved last season buying proven players for the here and now is massively important in this league. In my opinion the lack of game time for 2 players who have cost so much money is the biggest disappointment in this opening stage of the season.
Having said that to fully appreciate our current position it is worth looking at the official league statistics covering the areas which not only identify performance, but how effective the team is against key performance criteria. The following is a comparison of our start to the season against the average performance of the team since the club returned to the Championship. The comparison is I think very interesting;
Wins %: 67% - 44%
Draw %: 8% - 28%
Loss %: 25% - 28%
Average Goals Scored: 1.83 – 1.50
Goal For Conversion Rate: 6.60 – 7.36
Failed To Score%: 8% - 21%
Average Goals Conceded: 1.25 – 1.22
Goals Against Conversion Rate: 8.33 – 10.15
Clean Sheets %: 33% - 31%
Points Won: 25 - 19
The clear difference in the number of games won is the biggest indication of not only the never give up attitude MM has brought to the club, but this season unlike last draws are being converted to wins a big positive in any team chasing promotion.
There can be little doubt that this season we have greater creativity in the squad which has resulted in the team failing to score in only 8% of games, against an average of 21% since we returned to the Championship. We are also scoring on average 1.83 goals per game against an average of 1.50 per game since our return to the Championship, this stat is further supported by the fact we are taking fewer attempts at goal to score with a goal every 6.60 attempts. This is fewer than our average of 7.36 since our return to the Championship. Last season we needed 9.17 attempts for each goal scored and as a result we averaged only 1.50 goals per game.
Currently we have the 3rd best ranked attack in the Championship and this has, in my opinion, been the major contribution to us winning such a high % of games and is by far the biggest plus so far this season.
Sadly our defensive performance so far this season has not been as impressive, or to be more accurate, our defensive performance away from home is the biggest concern. Currently we have the 2nd best defensive home record in the championship with only 4 goals conceded, all from free kicks or like last night a corner, but away from home we have conceded 11 goals our equal worst start to a season since our return to the Championship. Our away record has resulted in us being only ranked the 16th best defensive unit in the Championship. No club has EVER been promoted with the 16th ranked defensive record and there lies the challenge, what if anything can be done about it.
Despite spending £10 this summer we lack options in the defensive area of the squad and that for me is our Achilles heel. It beggars belief in my opinion and despite having 33% clean sheets during the first 12 matches we have conceded 11 goals away from home, which is the highest number conceded in our first 6 away games since our return to the Championship. This has resulted in teams needing, on average, fewer attempts at goal to score against us than at anytime since our return to the championship. This season a goal is conceded every 8.6 attempts at goal compared with 13 at this stage last season and an average of 10.3 since our return to the Championship.
However on a more positive note our home defensive record is good, with only 4 goals conceded in the first 6 games, all from set pieces, but this is not our best performance since our return to the Championship as on two other occasions we have conceded only two goals.
With 25pts from our first 12 games we have made an excellent start to the season, our average over the last 10 years has been 19 points at this stage. This season we are trying to reach the playoffs for the 4th successive season, only Birmingham City have achieved this in the history of playoffs at this level and the average points for a club who reached the playoffs over the last 10 years has been 17 points after 12 games. That being the case we already look a very good bet to at least make the playoffs at the end of the season. But what about automatic promotion?
Over the last 10 years the average number of points won, after 12 games, by clubs who achieved automatic promotion is 21 points. There have been exceptions where clubs like Sunderland and Reading actually won the league after only winning 13 and 16 points respectively after 12 games. The highest number of points is 30 achieved by Sheffield Utd in season 2005/06, and that season they were promoted as runners up to Reading.
In fact only 2 clubs in the last 10 years have won more points, at this stage, than we have this season and failed to get promoted. Watford were one club who after winning 29 points at this stage in season 2007/08 fell away to finish 6th and eventually losing to Hull City in the playoff semi final. We were the other club in season 2006/07 where we also won 29 points at this stage but fell away to finish a hugely disappointing 13th place. We also won 26 points in 2010/11 but again failed in the playoffs.
Since our return to the Championship 9 clubs have eventually won automatic promotion having won the 25 or fewer points after 12 games, but we have been here before and failed so the question is will we do it this year? or maybe we should ask what are the risks to us achieving our dream of promotion to the Premier League.
Suffice to say if we continue with our current defensive performance it will stop any hope of promotion, either automatic or through the playoffs. As I have said previously there lies the challenge.
Most fans would agree we are short of defensive cover so in January that MUST be dealt with. Whatever our manager thinks about January transfers this year we just cannot sit back and do little or no business. History tells us that clubs who deal in January by signing players, for the here and now, invariably go on to win promotion.
If we can win 47 points after 23 games we will be bang on target for not just automatic promotion but winning the league. In my opinion we have every chance of being on that target and even after only 12 games I believe this is going to be our season. Our biggest weakness, and therefore risk, is the lack of defensive cover together with our inconsistent away form and it will be the biggest disappointment in the 48 years I have been supporting the club if we don’t deal with it. The board have already supported MM during the summer and there is still money available, use it Malkay and get us the cover and organisation away from home we need.
We have had an excellent start to the season and I say well done to MM, his backroom team and of course the players, we have experience, creativity, pace all combined with the never give up attitude of MM teams and in my opinion this means that 2012/13 WILL be the year we achieve the dream of PL Football.
So after the completion of 26% of our games what kind of season do you think we will have? What do you think of our start? And where do you think we will finish? Well here are my views a sort of first term report into season 2012 – 2013.
In my opinion to fully consider the performance of the team you have to bear in mind the extent of the changes to the squad that have taken place since the end of last season. During the summer MM has bought 10 new players into the club spending in the process the biggest amount of money, in a single transfer window, in the history of our club. Although this is only MM 2nd season as manager of our club there can be little doubt that this is now his team and no doubt he will be measured by how the team performs.
With so many players leaving at the end of the last season, and with the 10 new singings completed by the end of the summer transfer window we entered September with 29 players, although we have now lost both Keinan and Earnshaw leaving a squad of 27 players. How does that compare with past seasons? Well given the amount of money spent during the summer it may surprise many to know that in 5 other seasons since our return to this level we have had bigger squads;
2006/2007 – 28
2008/2009 – 29
2009/2010 – 29
2010/2011 – 28
To put this into some sort of perspective in season 2006/2007 we had our best start to a season since our return to the Championship with 29 points from the first 12 games. That season we had a squad of 28 players but we still fell away to finish mid table with the manager, (DJ) always maintaining the squad was too small to maintain a promotion challenge.
With the loss of Maynard and a squad lacking in cover in the defensive areas are expectation levels reasonable and should we be looking at this season as the next stage in the development of the squad and nothing more. Are we still a team in transition?
This question may surprise many fans but given the reality that having spent a reported £10m, and after 12 games the overall game time of the new players being only 38% of the available minutes in these games it does leave me asking why. Is it unreasonable to expect players who have cost £m’s to be ready to step into the team and be ready to compete at Championship level. MM has maintained that players like Kim Bok Yueng and Velikonja have big futures at the club, and that may well be true, but after 12 games these players have appeared in less than 1% of the available game time.
Without the luxury of PL parachute payments in my opinion when we spend £m’s on any player they need to be ready for the here and now and not for sometime in the future. In just a few months time another transfer window will open and as Reading (Jason Roberts), Southampton (Billy Sharp) and West Ham (Maynard & Vaz Te) proved last season buying proven players for the here and now is massively important in this league. In my opinion the lack of game time for 2 players who have cost so much money is the biggest disappointment in this opening stage of the season.
Having said that to fully appreciate our current position it is worth looking at the official league statistics covering the areas which not only identify performance, but how effective the team is against key performance criteria. The following is a comparison of our start to the season against the average performance of the team since the club returned to the Championship. The comparison is I think very interesting;
Wins %: 67% - 44%
Draw %: 8% - 28%
Loss %: 25% - 28%
Average Goals Scored: 1.83 – 1.50
Goal For Conversion Rate: 6.60 – 7.36
Failed To Score%: 8% - 21%
Average Goals Conceded: 1.25 – 1.22
Goals Against Conversion Rate: 8.33 – 10.15
Clean Sheets %: 33% - 31%
Points Won: 25 - 19
The clear difference in the number of games won is the biggest indication of not only the never give up attitude MM has brought to the club, but this season unlike last draws are being converted to wins a big positive in any team chasing promotion.
There can be little doubt that this season we have greater creativity in the squad which has resulted in the team failing to score in only 8% of games, against an average of 21% since we returned to the Championship. We are also scoring on average 1.83 goals per game against an average of 1.50 per game since our return to the Championship, this stat is further supported by the fact we are taking fewer attempts at goal to score with a goal every 6.60 attempts. This is fewer than our average of 7.36 since our return to the Championship. Last season we needed 9.17 attempts for each goal scored and as a result we averaged only 1.50 goals per game.
Currently we have the 3rd best ranked attack in the Championship and this has, in my opinion, been the major contribution to us winning such a high % of games and is by far the biggest plus so far this season.
Sadly our defensive performance so far this season has not been as impressive, or to be more accurate, our defensive performance away from home is the biggest concern. Currently we have the 2nd best defensive home record in the championship with only 4 goals conceded, all from free kicks or like last night a corner, but away from home we have conceded 11 goals our equal worst start to a season since our return to the Championship. Our away record has resulted in us being only ranked the 16th best defensive unit in the Championship. No club has EVER been promoted with the 16th ranked defensive record and there lies the challenge, what if anything can be done about it.
Despite spending £10 this summer we lack options in the defensive area of the squad and that for me is our Achilles heel. It beggars belief in my opinion and despite having 33% clean sheets during the first 12 matches we have conceded 11 goals away from home, which is the highest number conceded in our first 6 away games since our return to the Championship. This has resulted in teams needing, on average, fewer attempts at goal to score against us than at anytime since our return to the championship. This season a goal is conceded every 8.6 attempts at goal compared with 13 at this stage last season and an average of 10.3 since our return to the Championship.
However on a more positive note our home defensive record is good, with only 4 goals conceded in the first 6 games, all from set pieces, but this is not our best performance since our return to the Championship as on two other occasions we have conceded only two goals.
With 25pts from our first 12 games we have made an excellent start to the season, our average over the last 10 years has been 19 points at this stage. This season we are trying to reach the playoffs for the 4th successive season, only Birmingham City have achieved this in the history of playoffs at this level and the average points for a club who reached the playoffs over the last 10 years has been 17 points after 12 games. That being the case we already look a very good bet to at least make the playoffs at the end of the season. But what about automatic promotion?
Over the last 10 years the average number of points won, after 12 games, by clubs who achieved automatic promotion is 21 points. There have been exceptions where clubs like Sunderland and Reading actually won the league after only winning 13 and 16 points respectively after 12 games. The highest number of points is 30 achieved by Sheffield Utd in season 2005/06, and that season they were promoted as runners up to Reading.
In fact only 2 clubs in the last 10 years have won more points, at this stage, than we have this season and failed to get promoted. Watford were one club who after winning 29 points at this stage in season 2007/08 fell away to finish 6th and eventually losing to Hull City in the playoff semi final. We were the other club in season 2006/07 where we also won 29 points at this stage but fell away to finish a hugely disappointing 13th place. We also won 26 points in 2010/11 but again failed in the playoffs.
Since our return to the Championship 9 clubs have eventually won automatic promotion having won the 25 or fewer points after 12 games, but we have been here before and failed so the question is will we do it this year? or maybe we should ask what are the risks to us achieving our dream of promotion to the Premier League.
Suffice to say if we continue with our current defensive performance it will stop any hope of promotion, either automatic or through the playoffs. As I have said previously there lies the challenge.
Most fans would agree we are short of defensive cover so in January that MUST be dealt with. Whatever our manager thinks about January transfers this year we just cannot sit back and do little or no business. History tells us that clubs who deal in January by signing players, for the here and now, invariably go on to win promotion.
If we can win 47 points after 23 games we will be bang on target for not just automatic promotion but winning the league. In my opinion we have every chance of being on that target and even after only 12 games I believe this is going to be our season. Our biggest weakness, and therefore risk, is the lack of defensive cover together with our inconsistent away form and it will be the biggest disappointment in the 48 years I have been supporting the club if we don’t deal with it. The board have already supported MM during the summer and there is still money available, use it Malkay and get us the cover and organisation away from home we need.
We have had an excellent start to the season and I say well done to MM, his backroom team and of course the players, we have experience, creativity, pace all combined with the never give up attitude of MM teams and in my opinion this means that 2012/13 WILL be the year we achieve the dream of PL Football.
Re: " Our Season So Far "
Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:03 pm
Superb report, thank you Gary and yes Malky has so far done an excellent job as this shows in your report.
I have total faith in Malky as long as Malky is fully backed in January 2013.
I have total faith in Malky as long as Malky is fully backed in January 2013.
Re: " Our Season So Far "
Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:05 pm
As usual, brilliant in-depth stats and insights. That said, I now need a lie-down.
Re: " Our Season So Far "
Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:27 pm
excellent report, very happy with our home form, and mostly our style of play, we still tend to ouff the ball instead of keeping it on the ground, last night against watford was a good chance to run thier 8 outfield players ragged, did we?, no and i would like to see the stats for attendance records for home games for this and last view seasons please. well done Cardiff, well done MM.
Re: " Our Season So Far "
Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:42 pm
excellent report as usual by castleblue, you should post more often
Re: " Our Season So Far "
Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:18 pm
Great report and a very good insight of how we ware doing in comparison to other seasons.
Liked the bit about us having 47 points after 23 games.
Our 23rd game of the season is against............. Liecester.
Liked the bit about us having 47 points after 23 games.
Our 23rd game of the season is against............. Liecester.
Re: " Our Season So Far "
Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:33 pm
SBF1 wrote:Great report and a very good insight of how we ware doing in comparison to other seasons.
Liked the bit about us having 47 points after 23 games.
Our 23rd game of the season is against............. Liecester.
I know
Re: " Our Season So Far "
Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:32 pm
Look forward to the next update on the stats Gary - Great info as always mate
- Great info as always mate
Re: " Our Season So Far "
Sun Oct 28, 2012 7:28 am
Thanks for that - an excellent read.
Re: " Our Season So Far "
Tue Oct 30, 2012 9:17 am
Thank you once again for a full/ honest and accurate report of how our club has done so far, look forward to the half yearly report.