" What Type Of Player Do We Need To Sign In January "

With the transfer window about to open again on Sunday most if not all Bluebird fans will be taking a keen interest on the comings and goings at the club. In my opinion you would find great difficulty in finding a Bluebird fan expecting the club to sign less than a couple of players, but who are they and in my opinion of equal importance what type of player do they need to be.

After the Boxing Day match at Watford I wrote a midseason report on our progress to the halfway point of the season, the report outlined what a remarkable job MM, his backroom team and of course the team had done to get us into a great position to attack the second half of the season. The report, backed up statistical analysis of our performance, clearly showed why we should be positive about the next 23 games but it also highlighted the risks associated with the size of our squad which is currently one of the smallest we have had since our return to the Championship.

I deliberately left 2 statistics out of that report with the view of writing this thread closer to the transfer window opening with the hope of promoting a debate on where within the squad we need to sign players and what type of player we need.

The 2 statistics I omitted are the conversion rate of chances created to goals scored by both ourselves and our opponents, and to me they give a clear indication of exactly where we need to sign players.

Firstly I will start with the conversion rate of chances created by our opponents to goals scored and in the first 23 games of this season our opponents, on average, are scoring 1 goal from every 10.46 chances created.

That figure represents the highest number of chances required to score a goal since our return to the Championship, in other words our best performance as a defensive unit. When you compare that to our worst performance where our opponents required only 6.29 attempts on goal to score during season 2004/05 it tells you how far we have come during our time in the Championship.

So on that basis anyone believe that signing a defensive player, whatever position, needs to be a priority during this transfer window. My opinion is that we need to be concentrating in other areas.

Now I will give you our conversion rate of chances created to goals scored for the first 23 games of this season is 9.19. How does that compare with the other 8 seasons in the Championship well in only 2 seasons has that figure been higher, 10.43 in season 2007/08 and 11.13 in season 2004/05. So in the other 6 seasons our attacking threat has been greater with the best conversion rate being 5.93 in season 2009/10.

In my opinion this is the area where we should be concentrating on signing players, signing players with the ability to score goals from fewer chances created. It does sound easy I know maybe even obvious but is we agree on the need to reduce our conversion rate then is asks the question how.

If we were to look at the individual performance of team members so far this season 3 players stand out Joe Mason (4.5), Don Cowie(5) and Kenny Miller (5.86) as our best performing players this season.

At the other end of the spectrum the 3 players with the highest conversion rates are Craig Conway (13.33), Peter Whittingham (10.38) and Robert Earnshaw (8.87).

So far this season our best performing attacking player is Kenny Miller who has scored 1 goal for every 5.86 chances created. How does that compare with the performance of other forwards who have worn the shirt since our return to the Championship.

If I were to ask you which forward player has the best conversion rate of chances to goals scored who would you say?

Would it surprise you to find out that with an average of 4.13 chances to score a goal the man who is top of the list wore a MAGIC HAT, Peter Thorne is away by himself in this respect.

The lowest conversion rate in a single season goes to Michael Chopra with 3.64, but his overall average was 5. Ross MacCormack also maintained an average of 5 with Cameron Jerome just behind with an average of 5.5. It may surprise many to know Rob Earnshaw needs on average 7 attempts on goal to score.

In my opinion our top priority needs to be a player with the ability to convert chances at a rate below 5-1, and also a player to with the experience to provide cover for Kenny Miller. I fear KM is fast becoming the Jay Bothroyd or Craig Bellamy where our chances of promotion seemed to evaporate as they walked off injured at Wembley and Reading. Surely the board will not allow us to become that exposed again this season.

Having a good conversion rate is of course no guarantee of promotion as season 2009/10 will tell you when our conversion rate of 5.93 was better than all 3 promoted teams that season, in fact it is the better than any team promoted in the history of the Championship. But one thing is certain no team has been promoted with a conversion rate above 8.88 (Birmingham) so we need to bring our down below that level.

So who is likely to be available in January who fits the bill, probably the outstanding player would be Jordan Rhodes who has for the last 2 seasons has conversion rates of 5.3 and 4.22, whilst this season his current rating is 3.16. I would love us to get this lad but he would more than likely break the bank so it’s highly unlikely he is even a consideration for us.

But there are a couple of League one players who currently doing well in converting chances to goals and wouldn’t break the bank. Gary Madine at Sheffield Wednesday 4.09, Andy Bishop at Bury 4.12 and Leon Clarke at 2.66.
I offer these players only for the purpose of debate as all 3 are showing they have the abilty to convert chances to goals at or below a rate of 4-1. Also none would be likely to break the bank so would they offer a better alternative to Rudy Gestede as a replacement for Kenny Miller or to play alongside him.

But the one player I would love to see us sign is Kris Boyd and whilst we all know about his scoring exploits in Scotland, where he played many times alongside Kenny Miller, he also had a quite remarkable loan spell at Forest last season where he had a conversion rate of 1.83, 6 goals from 11 attempts on goal, he also had 5 assists in a short loan spell ( 7 starts). Please, please, please go and get this guy.

I hope we don’t go down the road of trying to pick up Premier League loans or Ex Premier League players who are free agents. You only have to look at what Jimmy Floyd Hasslebaink cost us to understand they are just not worth it. You may well get the odd fantastic goal like the one in the FA Cup against Wolves but overall JFH conversion rate was 14-1 that season, the worse of any player to have worn the shirt during our run in the Championship. Worse than Michael Ricketts, Alan Lee and not forgetting Steve Thompson who wasn’t given a look in with JFH at the club. Thing is Steve Thompson averaged a 7-1 conversion rate and was a far better option than JFH in my opinion.

If you look at our midfield players all are making a good contribution to goalscoring except Craig Conway who has a conversion rate of 13-1 and in my opinion his place in the team is most at risk.

If you think of other players who have played the wide role in the team the best conversion rate was 3.54 by Wayne Routledge and that should surprise few of us. WR is class at Championship level ask any Palace, Newcastle or QPR fan as they all got promoted with him in the team.

The next best wide player was Chris Burke who had a best conversion rate of 6-1 and in my opinion has been a huge loss to the club.

One possible player is Adomah who has pace, lots of skill and a concersion rate 7-1 in a struggling team. Would he be worth a shot? We know we are not going to get Routledge again and Chris Burke is well settled at Birmingham.

But for me the player we should make every effort to sign is Lewis McGugan at Forest. Out of contract in the summer it will not break the bank to get this lad and although he has struggled this season his performances before have been remarkable. With a conversion rate average of 5.75-1 and an average of 11 assists per season here is a player of Championship standard, with bags of pace, a good shot in both feet, loads of tricks and a huge work ethic.

We all know that our team this season have created more attempts on our opponents goal than any other side since our return to the Championship, also our defence are making our opponents have more attempts on our goal to score. Creativity is not an issue for us but reducing the conversion rate of our chances is the challenge in nmy opinion. To overcome this challenge we need to make every effort to sign Kris Boyd and Lewis McGugan, and not just because I have a feeling about them, it's about their past perfomance record with other clubs and more importantly clubs at this level.

We are in a fantastic position and in my opinion Kris Boyd ad Lewis McGugan would not only be the icing on the cake for this squad but the cherry on top of the icing.

facinating review and your stats regarding possible signings speak for themselves

facinating review and your stats regarding possible signings speak for themselves

With the transfer window about to open again on Sunday most if not all Bluebird fans will be taking a keen interest on the comings and goings at the club. In my opinion you would find great difficulty in finding a Bluebird fan expecting the club to sign less than a couple of players, but who are they and in my opinion of equal importance what type of player do they need to be.

After the Boxing Day match at Watford I wrote a midseason report on our progress to the halfway point of the season, the report outlined what a remarkable job MM, his backroom team and of course the team had done to get us into a great position to attack the second half of the season. The report, backed up statistical analysis of our performance, clearly showed why we should be positive about the next 23 games but it also highlighted the risks associated with the size of our squad which is currently one of the smallest we have had since our return to the Championship.

I deliberately left 2 statistics out of that report with the view of writing this thread closer to the transfer window opening with the hope of promoting a debate on where within the squad we need to sign players and what type of player we need.

The 2 statistics I omitted are the conversion rate of chances created to goals scored by both ourselves and our opponents, and to me they give a clear indication of exactly where we need to sign players.

Firstly I will start with the conversion rate of chances created by our opponents to goals scored and in the first 23 games of this season our opponents, on average, are scoring 1 goal from every 10.46 chances created.

That figure represents the highest number of chances required to score a goal since our return to the Championship, in other words our best performance as a defensive unit. When you compare that to our worst performance where our opponents required only 6.29 attempts on goal to score during season 2004/05 it tells you how far we have come during our time in the Championship.

So on that basis anyone believe that signing a defensive player, whatever position, needs to be a priority during this transfer window. My opinion is that we need to be concentrating in other areas.

Now I will give you our conversion rate of chances created to goals scored for the first 23 games of this season is 9.19. How does that compare with the other 8 seasons in the Championship well in only 2 seasons has that figure been higher, 10.43 in season 2007/08 and 11.13 in season 2004/05. So in the other 6 seasons our attacking threat has been greater with the best conversion rate being 5.93 in season 2009/10.

In my opinion this is the area where we should be concentrating on signing players, signing players with the ability to score goals from fewer chances created. It does sound easy I know maybe even obvious but is we agree on the need to reduce our conversion rate then is asks the question how.

If we were to look at the individual performance of team members so far this season 3 players stand out Joe Mason (4.5), Don Cowie(5) and Kenny Miller (5.86) as our best performing players this season.

At the other end of the spectrum the 3 players with the highest conversion rates are Craig Conway (13.33), Peter Whittingham (10.38) and Robert Earnshaw (8.87).

So far this season our best performing attacking player is Kenny Miller who has scored 1 goal for every 5.86 chances created. How does that compare with the performance of other forwards who have worn the shirt since our return to the Championship.

If I were to ask you which forward player has the best conversion rate of chances to goals scored who would you say?

Would it surprise you to find out that with an average of 4.13 chances to score a goal the man who is top of the list wore a MAGIC HAT, Peter Thorne is away by himself in this respect.

The lowest conversion rate in a single season goes to Michael Chopra with 3.64, but his overall average was 5. Ross MacCormack also maintained an average of 5 with Cameron Jerome just behind with an average of 5.5. It may surprise many to know Rob Earnshaw needs on average 7 attempts on goal to score.

In my opinion our top priority needs to be a player with the ability to convert chances at a rate below 5-1, and also a player to with the experience to provide cover for Kenny Miller. I fear KM is fast becoming the Jay Bothroyd or Craig Bellamy where our chances of promotion seemed to evaporate as they walked off injured at Wembley and Reading. Surely the board will not allow us to become that exposed again this season.

Having a good conversion rate is of course no guarantee of promotion as season 2009/10 will tell you when our conversion rate of 5.93 was better than all 3 promoted teams that season, in fact it is the better than any team promoted in the history of the Championship. But one thing is certain no team has been promoted with a conversion rate above 8.88 (Birmingham) so we need to bring our down below that level.

So who is likely to be available in January who fits the bill, probably the outstanding player would be Jordan Rhodes who has for the last 2 seasons has conversion rates of 5.3 and 4.22, whilst this season his current rating is 3.16. I would love us to get this lad but he would more than likely break the bank so it’s highly unlikely he is even a consideration for us.

But there are a couple of League one players who currently doing well in converting chances to goals and wouldn’t break the bank. Gary Madine at Sheffield Wednesday 4.09, Andy Bishop at Bury 4.12 and Leon Clarke at 2.66.
I offer these players only for the purpose of debate as all 3 are showing they have the abilty to convert chances to goals at or below a rate of 4-1. Also none would be likely to break the bank so would they offer a better alternative to Rudy Gestede as a replacement for Kenny Miller or to play alongside him.

But the one player I would love to see us sign is Kris Boyd and whilst we all know about his scoring exploits in Scotland, where he played many times alongside Kenny Miller, he also had a quite remarkable loan spell at Forest last season where he had a conversion rate of 1.83, 6 goals from 11 attempts on goal, he also had 5 assists in a short loan spell ( 7 starts). Please, please, please go and get this guy.

I hope we don’t go down the road of trying to pick up Premier League loans or Ex Premier League players who are free agents. You only have to look at what Jimmy Floyd Hasslebaink cost us to understand they are just not worth it. You may well get the odd fantastic goal like the one in the FA Cup against Wolves but overall JFH conversion rate was 14-1 that season, the worse of any player to have worn the shirt during our run in the Championship. Worse than Michael Ricketts, Alan Lee and not forgetting Steve Thompson who wasn’t given a look in with JFH at the club. Thing is Steve Thompson averaged a 7-1 conversion rate and was a far better option than JFH in my opinion.

If you look at our midfield players all are making a good contribution to goalscoring except Craig Conway who has a conversion rate of 13-1 and in my opinion his place in the team is most at risk.

If you think of other players who have played the wide role in the team the best conversion rate was 3.54 by Wayne Routledge and that should surprise few of us. WR is class at Championship level ask any Palace, Newcastle or QPR fan as they all got promoted with him in the team.

The next best wide player was Chris Burke who had a best conversion rate of 6-1 and in my opinion has been a huge loss to the club.

One possible player is Adomah who has pace, lots of skill and a concersion rate 7-1 in a struggling team. Would he be worth a shot? We know we are not going to get Routledge again and Chris Burke is well settled at Birmingham.

But for me the player we should make every effort to sign is Lewis McGugan at Forest. Out of contract in the summer it will not break the bank to get this lad and although he has struggled this season his performances before have been remarkable. With a conversion rate average of 5.75-1 and an average of 11 assists per season here is a player of Championship standard, with bags of pace, a good shot in both feet, loads of tricks and a huge work ethic.

We all know that our team this season have created more attempts on our opponents goal than any other side since our return to the Championship, also our defence are making our opponents have more attempts on our goal to score. Creativity is not an issue for us but reducing the conversion rate of our chances is the challenge in nmy opinion. To overcome this challenge we need to make every effort to sign Kris Boyd and Lewis McGugan, and not just because I have a feeling about them, it's about their past perfomance record with other clubs and more importantly clubs at this level.

We are in a fantastic position and in my opinion Kris Boyd ad Lewis McGugan would not only be the icing on the cake for this squad but the cherry on top of the icing.

holy shit, that is long

With the transfer window about to open again on Sunday most if not all Bluebird fans will be taking a keen interest on the comings and goings at the club. In my opinion you would find great difficulty in finding a Bluebird fan expecting the club to sign less than a couple of players, but who are they and in my opinion of equal importance what type of player do they need to be.

After the Boxing Day match at Watford I wrote a midseason report on our progress to the halfway point of the season, the report outlined what a remarkable job MM, his backroom team and of course the team had done to get us into a great position to attack the second half of the season. The report, backed up statistical analysis of our performance, clearly showed why we should be positive about the next 23 games but it also highlighted the risks associated with the size of our squad which is currently one of the smallest we have had since our return to the Championship.

I deliberately left 2 statistics out of that report with the view of writing this thread closer to the transfer window opening with the hope of promoting a debate on where within the squad we need to sign players and what type of player we need.

The 2 statistics I omitted are the conversion rate of chances created to goals scored by both ourselves and our opponents, and to me they give a clear indication of exactly where we need to sign players.

Firstly I will start with the conversion rate of chances created by our opponents to goals scored and in the first 23 games of this season our opponents, on average, are scoring 1 goal from every 10.46 chances created.

That figure represents the highest number of chances required to score a goal since our return to the Championship, in other words our best performance as a defensive unit. When you compare that to our worst performance where our opponents required only 6.29 attempts on goal to score during season 2004/05 it tells you how far we have come during our time in the Championship.

So on that basis anyone believe that signing a defensive player, whatever position, needs to be a priority during this transfer window. My opinion is that we need to be concentrating in other areas.

Now I will give you our conversion rate of chances created to goals scored for the first 23 games of this season is 9.19. How does that compare with the other 8 seasons in the Championship well in only 2 seasons has that figure been higher, 10.43 in season 2007/08 and 11.13 in season 2004/05. So in the other 6 seasons our attacking threat has been greater with the best conversion rate being 5.93 in season 2009/10.

In my opinion this is the area where we should be concentrating on signing players, signing players with the ability to score goals from fewer chances created. It does sound easy I know maybe even obvious but is we agree on the need to reduce our conversion rate then is asks the question how.

If we were to look at the individual performance of team members so far this season 3 players stand out Joe Mason (4.5), Don Cowie(5) and Kenny Miller (5.86) as our best performing players this season.

At the other end of the spectrum the 3 players with the highest conversion rates are Craig Conway (13.33), Peter Whittingham (10.38) and Robert Earnshaw (8.87).

So far this season our best performing attacking player is Kenny Miller who has scored 1 goal for every 5.86 chances created. How does that compare with the performance of other forwards who have worn the shirt since our return to the Championship.

If I were to ask you which forward player has the best conversion rate of chances to goals scored who would you say?

Would it surprise you to find out that with an average of 4.13 chances to score a goal the man who is top of the list wore a MAGIC HAT, Peter Thorne is away by himself in this respect.

The lowest conversion rate in a single season goes to Michael Chopra with 3.64, but his overall average was 5. Ross MacCormack also maintained an average of 5 with Cameron Jerome just behind with an average of 5.5. It may surprise many to know Rob Earnshaw needs on average 7 attempts on goal to score.

In my opinion our top priority needs to be a player with the ability to convert chances at a rate below 5-1, and also a player to with the experience to provide cover for Kenny Miller. I fear KM is fast becoming the Jay Bothroyd or Craig Bellamy where our chances of promotion seemed to evaporate as they walked off injured at Wembley and Reading. Surely the board will not allow us to become that exposed again this season.

Having a good conversion rate is of course no guarantee of promotion as season 2009/10 will tell you when our conversion rate of 5.93 was better than all 3 promoted teams that season, in fact it is the better than any team promoted in the history of the Championship. But one thing is certain no team has been promoted with a conversion rate above 8.88 (Birmingham) so we need to bring our down below that level.

So who is likely to be available in January who fits the bill, probably the outstanding player would be Jordan Rhodes who has for the last 2 seasons has conversion rates of 5.3 and 4.22, whilst this season his current rating is 3.16. I would love us to get this lad but he would more than likely break the bank so it’s highly unlikely he is even a consideration for us.

But there are a couple of League one players who currently doing well in converting chances to goals and wouldn’t break the bank. Gary Madine at Sheffield Wednesday 4.09, Andy Bishop at Bury 4.12 and Leon Clarke at 2.66.
I offer these players only for the purpose of debate as all 3 are showing they have the abilty to convert chances to goals at or below a rate of 4-1. Also none would be likely to break the bank so would they offer a better alternative to Rudy Gestede as a replacement for Kenny Miller or to play alongside him.

But the one player I would love to see us sign is Kris Boyd and whilst we all know about his scoring exploits in Scotland, where he played many times alongside Kenny Miller, he also had a quite remarkable loan spell at Forest last season where he had a conversion rate of 1.83, 6 goals from 11 attempts on goal, he also had 5 assists in a short loan spell ( 7 starts). Please, please, please go and get this guy.

I hope we don’t go down the road of trying to pick up Premier League loans or Ex Premier League players who are free agents. You only have to look at what Jimmy Floyd Hasslebaink cost us to understand they are just not worth it. You may well get the odd fantastic goal like the one in the FA Cup against Wolves but overall JFH conversion rate was 14-1 that season, the worse of any player to have worn the shirt during our run in the Championship. Worse than Michael Ricketts, Alan Lee and not forgetting Steve Thompson who wasn’t given a look in with JFH at the club. Thing is Steve Thompson averaged a 7-1 conversion rate and was a far better option than JFH in my opinion.

If you look at our midfield players all are making a good contribution to goalscoring except Craig Conway who has a conversion rate of 13-1 and in my opinion his place in the team is most at risk.

If you think of other players who have played the wide role in the team the best conversion rate was 3.54 by Wayne Routledge and that should surprise few of us. WR is class at Championship level ask any Palace, Newcastle or QPR fan as they all got promoted with him in the team.

The next best wide player was Chris Burke who had a best conversion rate of 6-1 and in my opinion has been a huge loss to the club.

One possible player is Adomah who has pace, lots of skill and a concersion rate 7-1 in a struggling team. Would he be worth a shot? We know we are not going to get Routledge again and Chris Burke is well settled at Birmingham.

But for me the player we should make every effort to sign is Lewis McGugan at Forest. Out of contract in the summer it will not break the bank to get this lad and although he has struggled this season his performances before have been remarkable. With a conversion rate average of 5.75-1 and an average of 11 assists per season here is a player of Championship standard, with bags of pace, a good shot in both feet, loads of tricks and a huge work ethic.

We all know that our team this season have created more attempts on our opponents goal than any other side since our return to the Championship, also our defence are making our opponents have more attempts on our goal to score. Creativity is not an issue for us but reducing the conversion rate of our chances is the challenge in nmy opinion. To overcome this challenge we need to make every effort to sign Kris Boyd and Lewis McGugan, and not just because I have a feeling about them, it's about their past perfomance record with other clubs and more importantly clubs at this level.

We are in a fantastic position and in my opinion Kris Boyd ad Lewis McGugan would not only be the icing on the cake for this squad but the cherry on top of the icing.

holy shit, that is long

Sorry Craig here is the short version. Sign Boyd and McGugan and I think we will get promoted.

facinating review and your stats regarding possible signings speak for themselves

Best article I have read about the team on here. A lot of work went into that and the result was a very enjoyable read.

Kris Boyd and Lewis McGugan it is then. Go get em Malkey!

facinating review and your stats regarding possible signings speak for themselves

Best article I have read about the team on here. A lot of work went into that and the result was a very enjoyable read.

Kris Boyd and Lewis McGugan it is then. Go get em Malkey!

a good one

that only took 3 words see

A great report as always castleblue.

When you put those stats down, it is hard not to agree with your judgement.

I think both Boyd and Mcgugan would be great, although both have been out of sorts lately, so can they still do it????

if MM can bring the best out of players, then there may be others, there or thereabouts who could improve under MM and hit return rates of under 5.

I have read topcat posts going back ages, going on about Rhodes - we could have had him in the summer but i think his value may be too great now.

I think you are bang on with the positions we need, although cover for whitts and mcnaughton are not easy to see in our squad.

come on city, come on

A great report as always castleblue.

When you put those stats down, it is hard not to agree with your judgement.

I think both Boyd and Mcgugan would be great, although both have been out of sorts lately, so can they still do it????

if MM can bring the best out of players, then there may be others, there or thereabouts who could improve under MM and hit return rates of under 5.

I have read topcat posts going back ages, going on about Rhodes - we could have had him in the summer but i think his value may be too great now.

I think you are bang on with the positions we need, although cover for whitts and mcnaughton are not easy to see in our squad.

come on city, come on

Thanks Eddie

I would absolutely love to have Rhodes at the city he looks an absolute diamond but sadly I think a PL team will look to take a gamble on him.

Boyd on the other hand is in dispute with his club because they alledgedly haven't paid him and if that's true he may well be available free. If that is the case what a player to pick up on a free.

McGugan is out of contract and surely wouldn't cost that much and in my opinion if it's true Forest would agree to look at a deal involving Earnie then I'd take it.

I think at Championship level Whitts is irreplaceable and unless he picks up a longterm injury we may have to bite the bullet on that one. This season I think Whitts is looking at the best box to box midfielder we have had since Kav but maybe thats just me.

I do believe though that unless a player has a record to converting chances into goals on or below 5-1 we should not be interested because they would likely only be as good as what we have at the moment.

Brilliant stats but hows this for a stat for you Kris Boyd has only played 76 minutes of football this season in Turkey, hardly gonna be super fit and ready to bank in the goals I doubt. He is a free agent of course and would be a great signing for next season for nowt again not in the best of form, however his contract is up in June so maybe his heart is not in it at Forest and he's looking for pastures new however he should come cheap should come cheap. In short 2 very good players, I would sign both. I doubt if either would do us any good this season, but they would definitely come into their own next season with a good pre season behind them. Surely TopCats man, Jordan Rhodes must have amazing stats I would push the boat out and go get him plus a top right winger (Kebe, Macanuff or Adomah) to provide the crosses. Why cant we sign all four i.e Boyd, McGugan (a deal with Earnie going the other way) Rhodes and Adomah. Come on Malky, VT and TG lets go for it

cracking piece of writting if those are the players we sign id be well happy

Brilliant stats but hows this for a stat for you Kris Boyd has only played 76 minutes of football this season in Turkey, hardly gonna be super fit and ready to bank in the goals I doubt. He is a free agent of course and would be a great signing for next season for nowt again not in the best of form, however his contract is up in June so maybe his heart is not in it at Forest and he's looking for pastures new however he should come cheap should come cheap. In short 2 very good players, I would sign both. I doubt if either would do us any good this season, but they would definitely come into their own next season with a good pre season behind them. Surely TopCats man, Jordan Rhodes must have amazing stats I would push the boat out and go get him plus a top right winger (Kebe, Macanuff or Adomah) to provide the crosses. Why cant we sign all four i.e Boyd, McGugan (a deal with Earnie going the other way) Rhodes and Adomah. Come on Malky, VT and TG lets go for it

Didn't realise Boyd had only had 76 minutes football but still a good signing even for the future. Boyd, McGugan, Rhodes and Adomah and I think we are on the way to the Premier League.

Does anyone know how Steve Thompson is doing up in Jockland? Would it be worth getting gim back? I agree about Kris Boyd, he would be a really good signing to work alongside or back up King Kenny. But only time will tell, and with people seeing how well we're doing I'm sure Malky will be able to get us some good players over this window.

great write up. I'd love us to sign Boyd-he would be worth blowing a large part of the budget on. The other missing piece in the jigsaw is a wide left attacker-Conway would be better on the right/as a back up to Cowie. Left sided players are much sought after-Pearson of Derby (now Bristol City) would have done a reasonable job but one thing he lacks is a quick burst of pace.

Hopefully Malky can get the 2 or 3 signings he needs and i believe he can help us deliver premier league football.

Ideally a black player we dont wanna get caught up in this race Row might cost up points

boyd would fit in down here aswell scottish and all that

It's pretty much common ground City need i) someone with pace down the wing ii) someone who can break up play and pass forwards in central midfield and iii) a clinical striker.

I'd also drop Hudson and play Blake with Turner.

I would like to see City go back to 4-4-2 at home, and bring back some more flair football.

With the transfer window about to open again on Sunday most if not all Bluebird fans will be taking a keen interest on the comings and goings at the club. In my opinion you would find great difficulty in finding a Bluebird fan expecting the club to sign less than a couple of players, but who are they and in my opinion of equal importance what type of player do they need to be.

After the Boxing Day match at Watford I wrote a midseason report on our progress to the halfway point of the season, the report outlined what a remarkable job MM, his backroom team and of course the team had done to get us into a great position to attack the second half of the season. The report, backed up statistical analysis of our performance, clearly showed why we should be positive about the next 23 games but it also highlighted the risks associated with the size of our squad which is currently one of the smallest we have had since our return to the Championship.

I deliberately left 2 statistics out of that report with the view of writing this thread closer to the transfer window opening with the hope of promoting a debate on where within the squad we need to sign players and what type of player we need.

The 2 statistics I omitted are the conversion rate of chances created to goals scored by both ourselves and our opponents, and to me they give a clear indication of exactly where we need to sign players.

Firstly I will start with the conversion rate of chances created by our opponents to goals scored and in the first 23 games of this season our opponents, on average, are scoring 1 goal from every 10.46 chances created.

That figure represents the highest number of chances required to score a goal since our return to the Championship, in other words our best performance as a defensive unit. When you compare that to our worst performance where our opponents required only 6.29 attempts on goal to score during season 2004/05 it tells you how far we have come during our time in the Championship.

So on that basis anyone believe that signing a defensive player, whatever position, needs to be a priority during this transfer window. My opinion is that we need to be concentrating in other areas.

Now I will give you our conversion rate of chances created to goals scored for the first 23 games of this season is 9.19. How does that compare with the other 8 seasons in the Championship well in only 2 seasons has that figure been higher, 10.43 in season 2007/08 and 11.13 in season 2004/05. So in the other 6 seasons our attacking threat has been greater with the best conversion rate being 5.93 in season 2009/10.

In my opinion this is the area where we should be concentrating on signing players, signing players with the ability to score goals from fewer chances created. It does sound easy I know maybe even obvious but is we agree on the need to reduce our conversion rate then is asks the question how.

If we were to look at the individual performance of team members so far this season 3 players stand out Joe Mason (4.5), Don Cowie(5) and Kenny Miller (5.86) as our best performing players this season.

At the other end of the spectrum the 3 players with the highest conversion rates are Craig Conway (13.33), Peter Whittingham (10.38) and Robert Earnshaw (8.87).

So far this season our best performing attacking player is Kenny Miller who has scored 1 goal for every 5.86 chances created. How does that compare with the performance of other forwards who have worn the shirt since our return to the Championship.

If I were to ask you which forward player has the best conversion rate of chances to goals scored who would you say?

Would it surprise you to find out that with an average of 4.13 chances to score a goal the man who is top of the list wore a MAGIC HAT, Peter Thorne is away by himself in this respect.

The lowest conversion rate in a single season goes to Michael Chopra with 3.64, but his overall average was 5. Ross MacCormack also maintained an average of 5 with Cameron Jerome just behind with an average of 5.5. It may surprise many to know Rob Earnshaw needs on average 7 attempts on goal to score.

In my opinion our top priority needs to be a player with the ability to convert chances at a rate below 5-1, and also a player to with the experience to provide cover for Kenny Miller. I fear KM is fast becoming the Jay Bothroyd or Craig Bellamy where our chances of promotion seemed to evaporate as they walked off injured at Wembley and Reading. Surely the board will not allow us to become that exposed again this season.

Having a good conversion rate is of course no guarantee of promotion as season 2009/10 will tell you when our conversion rate of 5.93 was better than all 3 promoted teams that season, in fact it is the better than any team promoted in the history of the Championship. But one thing is certain no team has been promoted with a conversion rate above 8.88 (Birmingham) so we need to bring our down below that level.

So who is likely to be available in January who fits the bill, probably the outstanding player would be Jordan Rhodes who has for the last 2 seasons has conversion rates of 5.3 and 4.22, whilst this season his current rating is 3.16. I would love us to get this lad but he would more than likely break the bank so it’s highly unlikely he is even a consideration for us.

But there are a couple of League one players who currently doing well in converting chances to goals and wouldn’t break the bank. Gary Madine at Sheffield Wednesday 4.09, Andy Bishop at Bury 4.12 and Leon Clarke at 2.66.
I offer these players only for the purpose of debate as all 3 are showing they have the abilty to convert chances to goals at or below a rate of 4-1. Also none would be likely to break the bank so would they offer a better alternative to Rudy Gestede as a replacement for Kenny Miller or to play alongside him.

But the one player I would love to see us sign is Kris Boyd and whilst we all know about his scoring exploits in Scotland, where he played many times alongside Kenny Miller, he also had a quite remarkable loan spell at Forest last season where he had a conversion rate of 1.83, 6 goals from 11 attempts on goal, he also had 5 assists in a short loan spell ( 7 starts). Please, please, please go and get this guy.

I hope we don’t go down the road of trying to pick up Premier League loans or Ex Premier League players who are free agents. You only have to look at what Jimmy Floyd Hasslebaink cost us to understand they are just not worth it. You may well get the odd fantastic goal like the one in the FA Cup against Wolves but overall JFH conversion rate was 14-1 that season, the worse of any player to have worn the shirt during our run in the Championship. Worse than Michael Ricketts, Alan Lee and not forgetting Steve Thompson who wasn’t given a look in with JFH at the club. Thing is Steve Thompson averaged a 7-1 conversion rate and was a far better option than JFH in my opinion.

If you look at our midfield players all are making a good contribution to goalscoring except Craig Conway who has a conversion rate of 13-1 and in my opinion his place in the team is most at risk.

If you think of other players who have played the wide role in the team the best conversion rate was 3.54 by Wayne Routledge and that should surprise few of us. WR is class at Championship level ask any Palace, Newcastle or QPR fan as they all got promoted with him in the team.

The next best wide player was Chris Burke who had a best conversion rate of 6-1 and in my opinion has been a huge loss to the club.

One possible player is Adomah who has pace, lots of skill and a concersion rate 7-1 in a struggling team. Would he be worth a shot? We know we are not going to get Routledge again and Chris Burke is well settled at Birmingham.

But for me the player we should make every effort to sign is Lewis McGugan at Forest. Out of contract in the summer it will not break the bank to get this lad and although he has struggled this season his performances before have been remarkable. With a conversion rate average of 5.75-1 and an average of 11 assists per season here is a player of Championship standard, with bags of pace, a good shot in both feet, loads of tricks and a huge work ethic.

We all know that our team this season have created more attempts on our opponents goal than any other side since our return to the Championship, also our defence are making our opponents have more attempts on our goal to score. Creativity is not an issue for us but reducing the conversion rate of our chances is the challenge in nmy opinion. To overcome this challenge we need to make every effort to sign Kris Boyd and Lewis McGugan, and not just because I have a feeling about them, it's about their past perfomance record with other clubs and more importantly clubs at this level.

We are in a fantastic position and in my opinion Kris Boyd ad Lewis McGugan would not only be the icing on the cake for this squad but the cherry on top of the icing.

Fantastic report that talks about football on a football messageboard

These stats are opportunities to score not goals per appearances?

I have one more question, given we get Boyd and McGugan what is your starting 11 and bench given everyone is fit?

I think we should send Earnie back to Forest to sweeten the deal!

One final thing - where do you get your stats from?

Well done for the best post of 2011 in my opinion!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

With the transfer window about to open again on Sunday most if not all Bluebird fans will be taking a keen interest on the comings and goings at the club. In my opinion you would find great difficulty in finding a Bluebird fan expecting the club to sign less than a couple of players, but who are they and in my opinion of equal importance what type of player do they need to be.

After the Boxing Day match at Watford I wrote a midseason report on our progress to the halfway point of the season, the report outlined what a remarkable job MM, his backroom team and of course the team had done to get us into a great position to attack the second half of the season. The report, backed up statistical analysis of our performance, clearly showed why we should be positive about the next 23 games but it also highlighted the risks associated with the size of our squad which is currently one of the smallest we have had since our return to the Championship.

I deliberately left 2 statistics out of that report with the view of writing this thread closer to the transfer window opening with the hope of promoting a debate on where within the squad we need to sign players and what type of player we need.

The 2 statistics I omitted are the conversion rate of chances created to goals scored by both ourselves and our opponents, and to me they give a clear indication of exactly where we need to sign players.

Firstly I will start with the conversion rate of chances created by our opponents to goals scored and in the first 23 games of this season our opponents, on average, are scoring 1 goal from every 10.46 chances created.

That figure represents the highest number of chances required to score a goal since our return to the Championship, in other words our best performance as a defensive unit. When you compare that to our worst performance where our opponents required only 6.29 attempts on goal to score during season 2004/05 it tells you how far we have come during our time in the Championship.

So on that basis anyone believe that signing a defensive player, whatever position, needs to be a priority during this transfer window. My opinion is that we need to be concentrating in other areas.

Now I will give you our conversion rate of chances created to goals scored for the first 23 games of this season is 9.19. How does that compare with the other 8 seasons in the Championship well in only 2 seasons has that figure been higher, 10.43 in season 2007/08 and 11.13 in season 2004/05. So in the other 6 seasons our attacking threat has been greater with the best conversion rate being 5.93 in season 2009/10.

In my opinion this is the area where we should be concentrating on signing players, signing players with the ability to score goals from fewer chances created. It does sound easy I know maybe even obvious but is we agree on the need to reduce our conversion rate then is asks the question how.

If we were to look at the individual performance of team members so far this season 3 players stand out Joe Mason (4.5), Don Cowie(5) and Kenny Miller (5.86) as our best performing players this season.

At the other end of the spectrum the 3 players with the highest conversion rates are Craig Conway (13.33), Peter Whittingham (10.38) and Robert Earnshaw (8.87).

So far this season our best performing attacking player is Kenny Miller who has scored 1 goal for every 5.86 chances created. How does that compare with the performance of other forwards who have worn the shirt since our return to the Championship.

If I were to ask you which forward player has the best conversion rate of chances to goals scored who would you say?

Would it surprise you to find out that with an average of 4.13 chances to score a goal the man who is top of the list wore a MAGIC HAT, Peter Thorne is away by himself in this respect.

The lowest conversion rate in a single season goes to Michael Chopra with 3.64, but his overall average was 5. Ross MacCormack also maintained an average of 5 with Cameron Jerome just behind with an average of 5.5. It may surprise many to know Rob Earnshaw needs on average 7 attempts on goal to score.

In my opinion our top priority needs to be a player with the ability to convert chances at a rate below 5-1, and also a player to with the experience to provide cover for Kenny Miller. I fear KM is fast becoming the Jay Bothroyd or Craig Bellamy where our chances of promotion seemed to evaporate as they walked off injured at Wembley and Reading. Surely the board will not allow us to become that exposed again this season.

Having a good conversion rate is of course no guarantee of promotion as season 2009/10 will tell you when our conversion rate of 5.93 was better than all 3 promoted teams that season, in fact it is the better than any team promoted in the history of the Championship. But one thing is certain no team has been promoted with a conversion rate above 8.88 (Birmingham) so we need to bring our down below that level.

So who is likely to be available in January who fits the bill, probably the outstanding player would be Jordan Rhodes who has for the last 2 seasons has conversion rates of 5.3 and 4.22, whilst this season his current rating is 3.16. I would love us to get this lad but he would more than likely break the bank so it’s highly unlikely he is even a consideration for us.

But there are a couple of League one players who currently doing well in converting chances to goals and wouldn’t break the bank. Gary Madine at Sheffield Wednesday 4.09, Andy Bishop at Bury 4.12 and Leon Clarke at 2.66.
I offer these players only for the purpose of debate as all 3 are showing they have the abilty to convert chances to goals at or below a rate of 4-1. Also none would be likely to break the bank so would they offer a better alternative to Rudy Gestede as a replacement for Kenny Miller or to play alongside him.

But the one player I would love to see us sign is Kris Boyd and whilst we all know about his scoring exploits in Scotland, where he played many times alongside Kenny Miller, he also had a quite remarkable loan spell at Forest last season where he had a conversion rate of 1.83, 6 goals from 11 attempts on goal, he also had 5 assists in a short loan spell ( 7 starts). Please, please, please go and get this guy.

I hope we don’t go down the road of trying to pick up Premier League loans or Ex Premier League players who are free agents. You only have to look at what Jimmy Floyd Hasslebaink cost us to understand they are just not worth it. You may well get the odd fantastic goal like the one in the FA Cup against Wolves but overall JFH conversion rate was 14-1 that season, the worse of any player to have worn the shirt during our run in the Championship. Worse than Michael Ricketts, Alan Lee and not forgetting Steve Thompson who wasn’t given a look in with JFH at the club. Thing is Steve Thompson averaged a 7-1 conversion rate and was a far better option than JFH in my opinion.

If you look at our midfield players all are making a good contribution to goalscoring except Craig Conway who has a conversion rate of 13-1 and in my opinion his place in the team is most at risk.

If you think of other players who have played the wide role in the team the best conversion rate was 3.54 by Wayne Routledge and that should surprise few of us. WR is class at Championship level ask any Palace, Newcastle or QPR fan as they all got promoted with him in the team.

The next best wide player was Chris Burke who had a best conversion rate of 6-1 and in my opinion has been a huge loss to the club.

One possible player is Adomah who has pace, lots of skill and a concersion rate 7-1 in a struggling team. Would he be worth a shot? We know we are not going to get Routledge again and Chris Burke is well settled at Birmingham.

But for me the player we should make every effort to sign is Lewis McGugan at Forest. Out of contract in the summer it will not break the bank to get this lad and although he has struggled this season his performances before have been remarkable. With a conversion rate average of 5.75-1 and an average of 11 assists per season here is a player of Championship standard, with bags of pace, a good shot in both feet, loads of tricks and a huge work ethic.

We all know that our team this season have created more attempts on our opponents goal than any other side since our return to the Championship, also our defence are making our opponents have more attempts on our goal to score. Creativity is not an issue for us but reducing the conversion rate of our chances is the challenge in nmy opinion. To overcome this challenge we need to make every effort to sign Kris Boyd and Lewis McGugan, and not just because I have a feeling about them, it's about their past perfomance record with other clubs and more importantly clubs at this level.

We are in a fantastic position and in my opinion Kris Boyd ad Lewis McGugan would not only be the icing on the cake for this squad but the cherry on top of the icing.

Fantastic report that talks about football on a football messageboard

These stats are opportunities to score not goals per appearances?

I have one more question, given we get Boyd and McGugan what is your starting 11 and bench given everyone is fit?

I think we should send Earnie back to Forest to sweeten the deal!

One final thing - where do you get your stats from?

Well done for the best post of 2011 in my opinion!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thank you Einstein it's always nice to be appreciated.

If we were to sign both Boyd and McGugan I would have two starting 11, ahome and away version, with 4-4-2 at home and 4-5-1 away.

My Home team would be;

Marshall

MacNaughton
Blake
Turner
Taylor

McGugan
Gunnarsonn
Cowie
Whittingham

Boyd
Miller

Subs; Heaton, Gerrard, Conway, Kiss, Mason

Away;


Boyd out and on the bench replaced by Kiss.


I have stats on our players going back years being the sad case that I am I update them after every game, both team and individuals player performance. I also use a number of internet based stats with Statto.com being the best.

And are they chances not appearances?

And are they chances not appearances?

Absolutely based on attempts at goal during matches and not on appearances.

Sorry, the other point I'd make if they are chances on goal is that we need to factor in the chances created... for example if I get one chance created and score it's 1:1 ratio, but if that's one chance in a season I suppose over a season for the full team this works itself out though.

Sorry, the other point I'd make if they are chances on goal is that we need to factor in the chances created... for example if I get one chance created and score it's 1:1 ratio, but if that's one chance in a season I suppose over a season for the full team this works itself out though.

In football stats terms any attempt on goal is considered a chance created, be it a shot or a header, however own goals are not considered when formulating things like conversion rate.

If you take our game this season at Blackpool we had 25 attempts at goal, or 25 chances to score crested by the team. 9 of those attempts were by Peter Whittingham and 2 by Don Cowie. The team conversion rate is 25-1 PW is 0 and Don Cowie is 2-1.

These stats are an average either over a complete season or in the Case of Peter Thorne 2 complete seasons average or the season to date. These conversion rates are formulated by taking information on attempts at goal from the official match stats and then breaking that information down further to identify which individual players attempts made up the total.

Hope that makes sense.

Hey Castle why not meassge Malky with those stats on Lewis+ Boyd

Great article

Wiggy

Would settle with these 2

Good read well done Castleblue, but football isn't really that simple, we need more chances because we play five in midfield now, so have one less striker.

We concede less because we have five in midfield and can have one at the back helping the defence.

But the basic principle is right get a better striker and a better midfielder or two and we will impove our chances of going up.

I would just like to thank everyone who contributed to the thread as my intention was to provide some interesting stats and prompt a good debate about the type of player we need to take us forward this season.

After a fantastic start we are in a great position but despite having on average more attempts on goal per match than at anytime since we were promoted to the Championship the rate at which we convert those attempts to goals has only been higher on 2 occasions.

We all know that quality goalscorers cost money and thats what we need a player or two who can convert goal attempts to goals at a rate of below 5-1.

So for me our board should look at where we are, what we have achieved to date and the potential that is in both our manager and team and provide the cash to deliver that quality goalscorer.

Get that player and this will be our season.

I would just like to thank everyone who contributed to the thread as my intention was to provide some interesting stats and prompt a good debate about the type of player we need to take us forward this season.

After a fantastic start we are in a great position but despite having on average more attempts on goal per match than at anytime since we were promoted to the Championship the rate at which we convert those attempts to goals has only been higher on 2 occasions.

We all know that quality goalscorers cost money and thats what we need a player or two who can convert goal attempts to goals at a rate of below 5-1.

So for me our board should look at where we are, what we have achieved to date and the potential that is in both our manager and team and provide the cash to deliver that quality goalscorer.

Get that player and this will be our season.

Quality goalscorer, I have been thinking that all season. Problem is you don't pick up that type of player in January. It is hard enough finding a decent player during the transfer window. We needed one at the start of the season, Miller and Earnie as far as I am concerned are falling short of the mark.

I would just like to thank everyone who contributed to the thread as my intention was to provide some interesting stats and prompt a good debate about the type of player we need to take us forward this season.

After a fantastic start we are in a great position but despite having on average more attempts on goal per match than at anytime since we were promoted to the Championship the rate at which we convert those attempts to goals has only been higher on 2 occasions.

We all know that quality goalscorers cost money and thats what we need a player or two who can convert goal attempts to goals at a rate of below 5-1.

So for me our board should look at where we are, what we have achieved to date and the potential that is in both our manager and team and provide the cash to deliver that quality goalscorer.

Get that player and this will be our season.

Quality goalscorer, I have been thinking that all season. Problem is you don't pick up that type of player in January. It is hard enough finding a decent player during the transfer window. We needed one at the start of the season, Miller and Earnie as far as I am concerned are falling short of the mark.

I agree about Earnie as he is looking a shadow of the player he was, Kenny is doing OK with his overall game but not scoring enough.

Thats why I think with Kris Boyd available on a free he has a record of being a free scoring forward. Must be worth a punt.

100% Agree. Great Post!