IMO We need a min of 10 wins and 7 draws. I know that no one can predict exactly what we will need but just a guess really. In the next 4 games we need 2 wins if we are thinking in terms of averaging it out through the course of the season.
If we can finish say WIN 11 draw 9 and lose 18 or something we may just be able to stay up. Just depends on others around us too.