Stats say - Forget the Playoffs

i know we look at the table and say... maybe, just maybe but...

Stats:

We're top of the form table since the turn of the year 2.1 points per game across ten games.

However, in the last ten games we've gone from 16 points behind to 13 points behind. This is because the top teams are also up there in the form table.

At this rate we'll need about 30 games to catch up, not the 13 we have. Things do change as the season goes on.

Historic playoff numbers below. Three columns after the season date:

- first is the final P6 point tally (min to get in playoffs)
- second the points tally at this point in the season for that season
- third is the change in points between the two

As an example 2016 season ended with minimum 74 points to get in playoffs, at this point in the season the 6th place team had 54 points, so it moved by 20 points until the end of the season.

2017 - ?? 58 (??)
2016 - 74 54 (20)
2015 - 78 59 (19)
2014 - 72 52 (20)
2013 - 68 52 (16)
2012 - 75 53 (22)

This season, 2017, 6th place are at 58 points so we can estimate that end of season minimum will be 78 points to get in playoffs.

Cardiff currently have 45 points and hence need another 33 points to hit the magic number at 2.54 points per game or 11 wins from 13 games. Too much IMO.

Boooooo


Killjoy

stats have been saying that since october

Nice stats and they prove the fickleness of the football fan.

Back in October we just begged for survival and we'd give the football gods out first born.

By January it was calls for the calm that comes with mid table safety and we would never ask for anything again.

This has now been replaced with a call for a push at the play offs..... by a few.

Football fans are a pushy bunch, never happy with their lot.

Personally I cannot get over that we find ourselves in the top half and not able to be pushed back down for AT LAST two more games.

Our only hope is that one of the top 6 (Leeds maybe ) has a complete slump and that we win at least 10 of our remaining 14.


Very unlikely

If we pick up, say 31 points then Leeds will need to get 18 or less from 13 games and we'd have to dramatically improve our g.d


With those points we'd probably finish 7th, however it's just nice to be enjoying the football again and we've a lot of work to do ready for next season too

Loving the football by the way!

Our only hope is that one of the top 6 (Leeds maybe ) has a complete slump and that we win at least 10 of our remaining 14.


Very unlikely

If we pick up, say 31 points then Leeds will need to get 18 or less from 13 games and we'd have to dramatically improve our g.d


With those points we'd probably finish 7th, however it's just nice to be enjoying the football again and we've a lot of work to do ready for next season too

yes leeds could have a complete slump and finiush 10th..play offs is 6th. what about the other 6 sides between us and them?

Was never thinking about them, we are nearly safe now as well. Just enjoying the games without worry now, something I never thought I'd be able to do at this point going into October time.

Was never thinking about them, we are nearly safe now as well. Just enjoying the games without worry now, something I never thought I'd be able to do at this point going into October time.

i figured we would be in the mix for relegation longer.
as ive said before the best any club has done from the 8pts from 11 game start was 10th with 67pts
i think thats a realistic target now.

i know we look at the table and say... maybe, just maybe but...

Stats:

We're top of the form table since the turn of the year 2.1 points per game across ten games.

However, in the last ten games we've gone from 16 points behind to 13 points behind. This is because the top teams are also up there in the form table.

At this rate we'll need about 30 games to catch up, not the 13 we have. Things do change as the season goes on.

Historic playoff numbers below. Three columns after the season date:

- first is the final P6 point tally (min to get in playoffs)
- second the points tally at this point in the season for that season
- third is the change in points between the two

As an example 2016 season ended with minimum 74 points to get in playoffs, at this point in the season the 6th place team had 54 points, so it moved by 20 points until the end of the season.

2017 - ?? 58 (??)
2016 - 74 54 (20)
2015 - 78 59 (19)
2014 - 72 52 (20)
2013 - 68 52 (16)
2012 - 75 53 (22)

This season, 2017, 6th place are at 58 points so we can estimate that end of season minimum will be 78 points to get in playoffs.

Cardiff currently have 45 points and hence need another 33 points to hit the magic number at 2.54 points per game or 11 wins from 13 games. Too much IMO.

OK a little update. I suppose the slight difference this year is that there is a significant gap between 5th and 6th, and 7th place. If both those teams fail, Weds and Leeds, then then number would be 51pts plus 20 giving 71pts. 71pts means we need 26pts from a possible 39 or 2pts per game. If we continue with our current rate since Christmas and both Leeds & Weds fall away we'll be in there... Those two teams need to really drop away though... Weds two down half time tonight!

Nice stats and they prove the fickleness of the football fan.

Back in October we just begged for survival and we'd give the football gods out first born.

By January it was calls for the calm that comes with mid table safety and we would never ask for anything again.

This has now been replaced with a call for a push at the play offs..... by a few.

Football fans are a pushy bunch, never happy with their lot.

Personally I cannot get over that we find ourselves in the top half and not able to be pushed back down for AT LAST two more games.

I don't think anyone really thinks we should get into the playoffs but it's something to aim for. If Leeds or Sheff Wed do blow up, we'd kick ourselves if we played kids etc and took our foot off the pedal. Just give it a real go and who knows. I'd say there's a 1% chance but it is worth a go! Also, if we can keep the momentum up and narrowly miss out, that could carry into next season. Imagine how positive the players would be if they'd been going at 2 points a game for 5 months, they'd know they can get promotion next season.

I get that 11 wins from 13 sounds impossible if you're coming from a normal Cardiff Fan perspective... But honestly with Neil Warnock at the helm, we can beat anyone and it's not the "Russell slade" era where we can beat anyone and lose to anyone too, I seriously always expect to win now after the week we've had. Every single position looks solid, we have character, we have a striker I personally think is the best Striker we have ever had (yes I said that) and the only thing letting us down is our defence - naming Morrison when he has a nervous first half - but if Morrison can just get back to his normal self, I honestly can't see anyone who can beat us. Yeah yeah football is random and luck plays apart and anything can happen... But if we win Saturday... Then Tuesday... Then Saturday again... It will turn into needing 8 wins in 10... Then that could turn into needing 5 wins in 7...

I'm not convinced yet that will happen... But I haven't ruled it out.